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Measuring Impact of New Obstacles on Minority Voter Registration

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Measuring Impact of New Obstacles on Minority Voter Registration Legal Dodges and Subterfuges: Measuring Impact of New Obstacles on Minority Voter Registration Jennifer Ann Hitchcock Thesis submitted to the faculty of the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts In Political Science Nicholas Goedert, Chair Caitlin E. Jewitt Karin Kitchens December 12, 2019 Blacksburg, Virginia Keywords: (voter registration, Shelby County v Holder, representation, migration) Legal Dodges and Subterfuges: Measuring Impact of New Obstacles on Minority Voter Registration Jennifer Ann Hitchcock ACADEMIC ABSTRACT Nearly 350 years of politically sanctioned domination over Blacks ended with the passage of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) in 1965. The federal regulation of voter and election law sought to end retrogressions in representation by intentional or effectual laws. In the VRA’s wake, race based politics and policy rooted in White supremacy were curtailed with the gradual representation of communities of color in all levels of government. Shelby County v Holder (2013) obstructed progress by effectively terminating preclearance of legal changes by the federal government. Since Shelby, retrogression of voter registration is once again on the rise. Remedies for retrogression require litigation and matriculation through the courts. This process is time consuming and allows states to conduct election law with minimal interruption until decisions are rendered. Research predating the passage of the Voting Rights Act by Matthews and Prothro indicated that there was a significant correlation between growing minority populations and the severity of election and voter laws. This paper seeks to determine if growing minority populations, in part due to disproportionately large in-migration, correlates with declining voter registration rates. These voter registration rates are due to substantive legal changes and procedural enforcement changes. Retrogression in Black, White, and Latinx is shown in analyzing state voter registration data. Using a time-series multivariate analysis to compare impact on Black, Latinx, and White communities across counties in North Carolina and Alabama, this paper determines that growing minority populations and in-migration do not have consistent statistical significance in explaining declining voter registration rates for Blacks and Latinx communities based on data from the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey and the Alabama and North Carolina Board of Elections. Periodic retrogression in voter registration for the Black community show statistically significant positive associations with increasing population sizes. The Black community experiences retrogression via statistically significant negative associations in national election years, and Black voter registration rates recover in off-year elections. Data indicates that there may be a decrease in representation of larger minority communities that Black communities are able to overcome. There is a strong association between decreasing voter registration rates and larger Latinx communities while the opposite is true of Black communities. The Latinx community voter registration have statistically significant negative associations with increasing population sizes and during national election years, with recovering registration rates in off-year elections. Legal Dodges and Subterfuges: Measuring Impact of New Obstacles on Minority Voter Registration Jenifer Ann Hitchcock GENERAL AUDIENCE ABSTRACT Nearly 350 years of politically sanctioned domination over Blacks ended with the passage of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) in 1965. The federal regulation of voter and election law sought to end retrogressions in representation by intentional or effectual laws. In the VRA’s wake, race based politics and policy rooted in White supremacy were curtailed with the gradual representation of communities of color in all levels of government. Shelby County v Holder (2013) obstructed progress by effectively terminating preclearance of legal changes by the federal government. Since Shelby, retrogression of voter registration is once again on the rise. Remedies for retrogression require litigation and matriculation through the courts. This process is time consuming and allows states to conduct election law with minimal interruption until decisions are rendered. Research predating the passage of the Voting Rights Act by Matthews and Prothro indicated that there was a significant correlation between growing minority populations and the severity of election and voter laws. This paper seeks to determine if growing minority populations, in part due to disproportionately large in-migration, correlates with declining voter registration rates. These voter registration rates are due to substantive legal changes and procedural enforcement changes. Retrogression in Black, White, and Latinx is shown in analyzing state voter registration data. Findings determine that for Black, Latinx, and White communities across counties in North Carolina and Alabama, growing minority populations and in-migration do not have significance in explaining declining voter registration rates for Blacks based on data from the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey and the Alabama and North Carolina Board of Elections. However, voter registration rates decrease as Latinx communities increase in size while the opposite is true of Black communities. Retrogression in Black and Latinx voter registration during national election years and rebound in off-year elections. Dedication To Blake, Kyla, Ian, Kellen, Shirley, and Ralph - for making the space in your life for this dream of mine. Your support and continued love made this wild ride possible To Dad - for inspiration all those years ago. Hoping to chat about the world around us again some day in the distant future. To mom - for your unending belief that I can do this, even when I was sure I could not. iv Acknowledgements So many people have invested in my career and future, and their mentorship is priceless. Thank you to Dave Goldfarb and Maureen Keck, for giving me the ability to balance academia and education. The James Madison Foundation is instrumental in the success of this program; and I am forever thankful. I am continuously humbled by the investments made by my mentors: Dr. Michael Snarr, Dr. Ken Halla, and Dr. Rebecca Small. Each of you play a role in my past, present, and future successes. I am grateful for your inspiration and investments. I am grateful to my committee for their time and effort to help me truly understand the entirety of my efforts, and their patience and responsiveness to questions from afar. Dr Nicholas Goedert, your dedication to checking my emails, patiently listening to my crises, and wisely determining the correct path has earned you saintly status. Thank you so much for the patient and calm wisdom and guidance to both Dr. Caitlin Jewitt and Dr. Karin Kitchens. Your ability to help me identify my places for growth was a rewarding challenge and contributed to a stronger product. I am eternally grateful for the guidance from Dr. Nathaniel Porter. I could not have done STATA without you, my new best friend. Thank you to all of my students, past and present. Your imagination and inquisitiveness inspires me to do things I did not think possible. Your belief in what it is to be American restores my faith in the future. Thank you for allowing me to learn along side you and be witness to your greatness. Special thank you to my helpful students from Fairfax High School’s Rho Kappa National Social Studies Honors Society, who put in hours helping me arrange my annotations and data. Thank you to Jack Allen, Carter Boggs, and Nezah Khandker. So many of my close friends have kept me sane throughout this process, making sure I had time to think about something other than my work. There was time for laughter and banter (thank you, Cool Kids Club… you know we don’t name ourselves) and time for day dreaming about what my own children can do while I am distracted with my own studies, allowing me the ability to decompress, or simply just helping me with the task of parenting. Thank you, Karen and Mike, David and Carrie, Fito and Susana, Sam and Mark, John and Kathy, Alicia and Jim, and Monica and Bill. v Table of Contents Chapter I: Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Research Question ............................................................................................................ 13 Chapter II: Background................................................................................................................. 15 2.1 On Representation ............................................................................................................ 15 2.2 Representation in Jim Crow South ................................................................................. 20 2.3 Effects of the Voting Rights Act ...................................................................................... 29 2.4 Electoral Changes in North Carolina .............................................................................. 32 2.5 Electoral Changes in Alabama ........................................................................................ 36 2.5 Significance to Scholarship and Policy ........................................................................... 40 Chapter III: Research Question and Methodology ......................................................................
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