Connecting Black Voters to Political Power
Survey of Black Voters in the US | September 2020
1 2 Research Methodology
1. Explore reactions to significant current events (COVID-19, racial uprising, upcoming election, etc) to determine how it is shifting political Objectives consciousness of Black voters. 2. Determine persuasive/mobilization messaging to increase Black political engagement in upcoming elections, and beyond.
Black voters and oversamples Sample of rural voters, immigrant Party ID voters, and LGBTQ voters 15%
N = 800 5% +100 OS Rural Voters These findings are from a proprietary survey conducted by Size +50 OS Immigrant Voters HIT Strategies on behalf of Black Futures Labs. This survey +50 OS LGBTQ Voters consisted of 800 voters, with an oversample of rural voters, immigrant voters, and LGBTQ voters. The survey was conducted via online panel. The survey fielded from August 27 – September 7, 2020 and the margin of error is +/- 3.1% with a confidence level of 95%. 80% Geo National
Total Democrat Total Republican Independent 3 Key Findings
• Presidential Horserace. Biden is significantly underperforming Hillary Clinton’s margins amongst Black voters (-15%) which is concentrated amongst younger Black voters (-20%). This is a combination of Trump increasing his approval rating and both Biden and Harris dropping amongst younger Black voters • Trump Rhetoric: 27% of respondents found our pro Trump message to be convincing (6-10), with 20% rating it as very convincing (20%). Trump’s bootstrap rhetoric is gaining far too much ground with Black voters. • Issues: Racism, Coronavirus, and the Economy were the top rated across all groups of Black voters. Notably, making a difference on issues that matter most to them is a top motivating factor for why they vote. That means this election must be seen as a tool improve racism to mobilize our least likely voters. • Police Brutality Reforms: Defunding and divesting money away from the police are rated as the least favorable reform options. Body cams and holding officers accountable in court are more favorable options. • Messaging: Top performing messages vary by demographic. But messages that anchor voting as a form a protest, demonstrate the power of their vote, and remind them of the collective power of our votes were the most effective at shifting Black voters on our key metrics. • Shift: On metrics such as vote likelihood, motivation to vote, and perceptions of power our messaging was most likely to shift younger-cynical voters and residents of small towns and rural areas. • Barriers & Motivators: Aside from COVID-19 being the biggest barrier to voting in this election, most voters believe that they believe their vote doesn’t make a difference is the largest barrier to voting. Removing Trump is the top motivator this year for Black voters to turnout. 4 Defining Demographics
Shift to More Powerful Shift to Increased Vote Shift to More Total Under age 50 (60%) Over age 50 (40%) (20%) Likelihood (12%) Motivated (15%)
Ø 74% Biden Ø 66% Biden Ø 87% Biden Ø 65% Biden Ø 57% Biden Ø 69% Biden Vote for Ø 11% Trump Ø 14% Trump Ø 7% Trump Ø 14% Trump Ø 18% Trump Ø 12% Trump POTUS Ø 6% Und. Ø 8% Und. Ø 3% Und. Ø 8% Und. Ø 10% Und. Ø 7% Und.
Top 3 • Racism (55%) • Racism (48%) • COVID (65%) • Racism (52%) • Racism (48%) • Racism (48%) Important • COVID (52%) • COVID (40%) • Racism (64%) • COVID (48%) • COVID (36%) • COVID (38%) Issues • Economy (35%) • Economy (34%) • Economy (37%) • Economy (31%) • Economy (27%) • Economy (32%)
• Punitive power Top • Protest (56%) • Protest (46%) • Punitive power • Biden (35%) • Protest (38%) (52%) Messages • Biden (55%) • Strength in (77%) • Punitive power • Biden (38%) • Biden (46%) (Top box – • Strength in numbers (43%) • Biden (74%) (32%) • Punitive power • Strength in rated 8-10) numbers (54%) • Biden (42%) • Protest (73%) • Protest (32%) (37%) numbers (44%)
• COVID (25%) • COVID (35%) • Doesn’t change • COVID (29%) • COVID (39%) • COVID (38%) • Doesn’t change Top 3 • Doesn’t change things (11%) • Doesn’t change • Doesn’t change • Doesn’t change things (19%) Reasons to things (24%) • COVID (11%) things (17%) things (29%) things (31%) • Vote not NOT vote • Vote not properly • Don’t like the • Vote not properly • Vote not properly • Vote not properly properly counted counted (17%) candidates (8%) counted (12%) counted (19%) counted (15%) (12%) • Support • Remove Trump • Remove Trump • Remove Trump • Remove Trump • Remove Trump candidates I like (27%) (27%) Top 3 (29%) (32%) (30%) (27%) • Make difference on • Elect Biden (23%) Reason to • Make difference • Elect Biden (27%) • Make difference on • Remove Trump issues (25%) • Support vote on issues (24%) • Make difference on issues (21%) (26%) • Support candidate candidates I like • Elect Biden (12%) issues (21%) • Elect Biden (16%) • Pressure from I like (23%) (23%) others (17%) 1 Political Climate 2 Upcoming Election 3 Issue Environment 4 Message Building 5 Shift Measurement 6 Conclusion 6
Black Voters are unhappy with the country on every level
How satisfied are you with the direction in which the country is headed?
Under Over Total Men Women LGBTQ Dissatisfied 43% 20% age 50 age 50 Satisfied 34% 35% 33% 46% 17% 59% Very Dissatisfied 64% 63% 65% 51% 82% 40% Satisfied 19% 15% Somewhat Don’t know/Ref 2% 2% 2% 3% 0% 1% Do you approve or disapprove of way Donald Trump’s job as President?
Under Over Total Men Women LGBTQ Disapprove 64% 12% age 50 age 50 Approve 20% 22% 18% 29% 8% 37% Disapprove 76% 74% 78% 67% 90% 62% Strongly Approve 16% 5% Don’t know/Ref 4% 3% 4% 5% 2% 2% Somewhat
How would you rate the economic conditions in the country today? Under Over Total Men Women LGBTQ age 50 age 50
Poor 32% 34% Good 31% 32% 30% 41% 16% 51% Poor 66% 65% 68% 55% 83% 48% Very Don’t know/Ref 3% 3% 2% 4% 1% 2% Good 13% 18% Somewhat 7 Favorability - Politicians
Rate your feelings toward some people using a scale from zero to ten, on which a “10” means that you feel VERY WARM and FAVORABLE towards them, a “0” means that you feel VERY COLD and UNFAVORABLE, and a “5” means that you do not feel particularly warm or cold.
Joe Biden 55% 12% 25% 9%
Kamala Harris 49% 12% 28% 10%
Bernie Sanders 42% 17% 31% 10%
Stacey Abrams 32% 16% 33% 19%
Mike Pence 11% 9% 69% 10%
Donald Trump 9% 8% 75% 8%
Pro (6-10) Neutral (5) Con (0-4) Don't Know/Ref 1 Political Climate 2 Upcoming Election 3 Issue Environment 4 Message Building
5 Conclusion 9 Recent protest have increased optimism toward the election and likelihood to vote
Please indicate whether or not each of the following words describes How likely are you to vote in the November election? how you feel about the upcoming general election.
5% 55% 55% Does describe 14% 47%
7%
74% 31% 31% 29% 29% 26% 26% 21% 21%
Extremely likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not likely at all DK/Ref Under Over Total Men Women LGBTQ age 50 age 50
Extremely likely 74% 75% 75% 62% 92% 62%
Somewhat likely 7% 8% 8% 11% 2% 11% Angry Proud Anxious Excited Hopeful Optimistic Interested Helpless Indifferent Not very likely 14% 12% 12% 20% 5% 18% Frusturated Overwhlemed Not likely at all 5% 5% 5% 7% 1% 9% 10 Biden doing much worse and Trump doing much better then 2016 with key groups of Black voters
Who would you vote for President if the election were today? Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Joe Biden or a 3rd Party Candidate for President? Shift from Clinton Support 2016
Total 74% 11% 15% -15
Men 72% 14% 14% -9
Women 78% 8% 13% -20
Ages 18-24 62% 15% 23% -20
Ages 25-34 62% 17% 21% -20
Ages 35-44 69% 13% 18% -20
Biden Trump Other (Undecided + Not voting + Don't know) 11 Kamala Harris has positive impact on Biden campaign but is severely under water with young voters
Does Joe Biden’s Vice Presidential pick, Kamala Kamala Harris Favorability by Age Group Harris, make you any more or less likely to to vote for Joe Biden for President? 18-24 21% 13% 44% 22% Age 18-34 14% Less Likely 25-34 28% 16% 44% 12% 9%
35-44 44% 10% 36% 9% 27% 60% 45-54 55% 15% 25%
55-64 76% 10% 11% 4%
65+ 77% 8% 10% 6% More likely No difference Less likely Pro (6-10) Neutral (5) Anti (0-4) DK/REF
Source: HIT Strategies August 2020 Survey for Black Futures Lab of 925 National Black Registered Voters 12 House of Representatives race
If the election was today, who would you vote as your House Representative?
Total 71% 11% 18%
Men 69% 13% 18%
Women 75% 9% 16%
Under age 50 62% 13% 24%
Over age 50 85% 6% 8%
LGBTQ 67% 15% 17%
Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Other (Undecided + Not voting + Don't know) 13 Groups with lowest perceptions of power are also the least likely to vote
How much power do you feel that your vote has to create change in your community?
Total 56% 16% 20% 9%
Men 56% 17% 21% 7%
Women 58% 14% 20% 9%
Under 47% 16% 26% 11% age 50
Over 69% 15% 12% 4% age 50
LGBTQ 47% 19% 28% 7%
Extremely powerful (8-10) Somewhat powerful (6-7) Not very powerful (3-5) Not powerful at all (0-2) DK/Ref 1 Political Climate 2 Upcoming Election 3 Issue Environment 4 Message Building
5 Conclusion 15 Black voters issue priorities
Racism and Discrimination 55% Tier 1 Coronavirus 52% Issues Economy/Jobs 35% Healthcare 29% Criminal Justice Reform 21% Tier 2 Issues Gun Violence 17% K-12 Education 11% Climate Change 10% Tier 3 Issues Voter Suppression 10% Corruption/Money in Politics 9% Wealth inequality 9% Taxes 8% Opioids/Drugs 4% Immigration 4% Reproductive Rights 2% 16 Black voters are pursuing safer alternatives to cast their votes, equally considering all options
How do you plan on voting in the upcoming 2020 general election? Under Over Men Women LGBTQ 32% Total 31% 31% age 50 age 50
Voting in person early 32% 31% 33% 33% 30% 40%
Voting in person on election day 31% 30% 32% 34% 27% 34%
Voting absentee by mail 31% 34% 28% 26% 38% 23%
4% Other 4% 3% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% Will not vote 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1% Voting in Voting in Voting Other Will not vote person early person on absentee by election day mail 17 Most Black voters are comfortable with VBM process even if they have never used it
How comfortable are you with the vote by mail process in your state? Have you ever previously voted by mail in an election in the US?
6% 4%
8% 27%
41% 39% 14%
17% 72% 14% 58% Are comfortable Have voted 31% with VBM process by mail before
Yes, in most elections Yes, in some elections Very Comfortable Somewhat comfortable Yes, in at least one election No, I’ve never used vote by mail Somewhat uncomfortable Very uncomfortable Under Over Total Men Women LGTBQ Under Over age 50 age 50 Total Men Women LGTBQ age 50 age 50 Very comfortable 41% 45% 39% 38% 47% 51% Yes, in most elections 27% 29% 25% 30% 23% 38% Somewhat 31% 31% 31% 34% 27% 28% Yes, in some comfortable elections 17% 18% 16% 21% 11% 26% Somewhat 14% 12% 16% 14% 14% 15% Yes, in at least one uncomfortable election 14% 12% 15% 11% 17% 17% Very uncomfortable 8% 6% 8% 8% 7% 4% No, I’ve never used vote by mail 39% 38% 40% 32% 48% 18% 18 Link between supporting VBM and anxiety around COVID-19
Do you support or oppose your state allowing all voters to VBM in Has the coronavirus pandemic made you more or less likely to this year’s presidential election? support VBM?
7% 6% 5% 12%
38% 52% 29% 28%
22%
Strongly support Somewhat support Much more likely to support Somewhat more likely to support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose No more or less likely Somewhat less likely to support
Under Over Under age Over age Total Men Women LGBTQ Total Men Women LGBTQ age 50 age 50 50 50 Strongly support Much more likely 38% 41% 36% 37% 40% 46% 52% 54% 50% 49% 58% 58% Somewhat more likely 22% 21% 24% 26% 17% 31% Somewhat support 28% 27% 31% 28% 28% 27% No more or less likely 29% 27% 29% 26% 33% 17% Somewhat oppose Somewhat less likely 12% 11% 12% 16% 6% 12% 5% 4% 5% 6% 3% 5% Much less likely Strongly oppose 7% 8% 7% 7% 8% 3% 6% 6% 6% 5% 8% 1% 19 Most Black voters believe protests have been justified and many have personally participated in them
Do you think the frustration that led to the protests involving police and the deaths of Black Americans are justified?
Under Over Total Men Women LGBTQ Fully Justified 61% 50 50 Fully justified 61% 60% 64% 55% 70% 63% Partially Partially Justified 21% 21% 23% 19% 24% 17% 26% justified Not at all 13% 13% 12% 15% 9% 10% Not at all justified 13% justified Don’t know 5% 4% 5% 6% 4% 2%
Did you participate in any of the protests following George Floyd’s killing that have taken place in cities across the country?
Yes 29% Under Over Total Men Women LGBTQ 50 50 Yes 29% 25% 33% 43% 9% 64% No 68% No 68% 73% 64% 54% 90% 34%
Refused 3% 20 Strong support for police reform measures, much lower support for divesting or defunding police
Please rate how much you agree or disagree with these proposed resolutions to the police brutality protests using a scale from zero to ten. Total agree (6-10). 64% 65% 61% 58% 55% 50%
39%
30%
Defund Police Divest Police Invest in Community Independent Reform Training Require Body Hold Police Funding Community Policing Oversight Boards and Outlaw Cams legally Organizations Chokehold accountable 21 Motivations for voting: Trump and Issues
Please select the response(s) that best describe why you might vote in upcoming elections?
To remove the Trump administration from office 29% To make a difference on issues that matter to me 24% To elect Joe Biden as President 21% To support candidates that I like 20% Because people have sacrificed for me to vote 15% To stop the spread of racism and discrimination in this country 12% It is my civic duty to vote 11% Pressure from friends and family 9% To re-elect Donald Trump as President 9% To uphold our traditional American values that are being threatened 9% To bring about radical, disruptive change 7% To elect state and local officials that represent my community 6% To fire politicians that disrespect or neglect my community 5%
Totals 22 Barriers to voting: COVID and Efficacy
Please select the response(s) that best describe why you might not vote in upcoming elections?
COVID-19 social distancing restrictions 25%
I don’t think voting changes things that matter to me 19%
I don’t think my vote will be properly counted 12%
I don’t like the candidates 10%
I don’t think the candidates represent my values 6%
I don’t have proper voter identification 5%
I do not know enough about the candidates 4%
I do not understand the voting process 3%
I do not have time 3% 23 Importance of different elections
How important is it for you to vote on each of the following offices in order to make a difference in your community?
President 75% 13% 6% 3%
Governor 66% 20% 8% 3%
Members of Congress 64% 24% 7% 2%
Judges and Prosecutors 61% 24% 8% 3%
Mayor and City Council 61% 23% 8% 3%
Members of the State Legislature 59% 24% 8% 3%
Attorney General 56% 26% 9% 5%
Sheriff 52% 28% 10% 6%
School Board Members 50% 27% 13% 4%
Very Important Somewhat Important Not Very Important Not important at all Don’t know 1 Political Climate 2 Upcoming Election 3 Issue Environment 4 Message Building
5 Conclusion 25 Messages rank by order of convincing
Protest 7.1
Stregnth in numbers 6.9
Biden 6.8
Down Ballot 6
Trump 3.7 26 Messaging Battery
Total Total Mean Rate each message on a scale of 0 – 10 to describe how convincing it is to you. Convincing % 0-10 (6 - 10) [PROTEST] Over the past 3 months Black people and their allies against racism have taken to the streets across America to demand police reform. As a result of our protest the officers accused of misconduct have been indicted, numerous police chiefs have been fired, and local jurisdictions are pursuing real reforms to reimagine 7.1 63% and defund police. While it will not fix racism, voting is a part of our protest and will continue the progress that we have made toward lasting police reform.
Men 64% Protest Women 64% Under age 50 54% Over age 50 LGBTQ 54%
Elements of the message that work: • Anchor to optimism that is being sparked by the protest • Demonstrate tangible examples of the protest • Do not over-promise voting as a way to “fix racism” • Make voting an extension of protest 27 Messaging Battery
Total Total Mean Rate each message on a scale of 0 – 10 to describe how convincing it is to you. Convincing % 0-10 (6 - 10) [STRENGTH IN NUMBERS] Black voters were the reason the blue wave of democratic legislators elected in 2018 was so overwhelmingly strong. In the competitive House races in 2018, 90% of Black voters voted Democratic, compared to 53% of voters overall. When we vote, we vote together, which is why we have the power to decide 6.9 62% the outcome. If we turn out to vote in this election, it will be us who will decide the future president for the rest of the country.
Men 67% Strength Women 60% Under age 50 52% In Numbers Over age 50 LGBTQ 44%
Elements of the message that work: • Demonstrate the power of Black votes • Examples of how Black voters determine elections • Describe the collective power of Black voters 28 Messaging Battery
Total Total Mean Rate each message on a scale of 0 – 10 to describe how convincing it is to you. Convincing % 0-10 (6 - 10) [BIDEN] Joe Biden worked alongside President Obama as Vice President to contain both the Ebola and H1N1 outbreaks and can help get us out of this mess we are in with COVID-19. Obama also tasked Joe Biden with restoring our economy after the Great Recession. President Obama trusted Joe Biden to navigate some of the 6.8 64% greatest crisis’ this nation has ever face, now we can trust Joe Biden to help us navigate the mess that Donald Trump has created again
Men 65% Women 63% Biden Crisis Under age 50 52% Over age 50 LGBTQ 48%
Elements of the message that work: • Link Biden to the successes of the Obama-administration • Validate Biden as someone that can be trusted to handle crisis • Contrast Biden with Trump 29 Messaging Battery
Total Total Mean Rate each message on a scale of 0 – 10 to describe how convincing it is to you. Convincing % 0-10 (6 - 10) [DOWN BALLOT] They want us distracted by all the noise at the top of the ticket so we are too exhausted to pay attention to what’s really going on. Focused only on presidential elections instead of the judges, school board, and city council members that really determine the outcome of our communities. They don’t want us to know that 6.0 48% those local elections are often decided by just a few 100 votes because in the US, a few extra Black votes makes the difference in local elections.
Men 53% Women 46% Down Under age 50 35% Ballot Over age 50 67% LGBTQ 44%
Elements of the message that work: • Name the distraction at the top of the ticket • Identify the local election that are also on the ballot • Demonstrate the 30 Messaging Battery
Total Total Mean Rate each message on a scale of 0 – 10 to describe how convincing it is to you. Convincing % 0-10 (6 - 10)
[TRUMP] Donald Trump does not stand for the mob mentality of the violent protests happening across the country and he will stand by and protect the institutions the protestors are trying to destroy. Trump believes in expanding 3.7 27% employment opportunities and has sent federal funds to HBCUs, because he knows the only way to get out of an oppressive environment is to work your own way out. That is what makes America great.
Men 19% Women 21% Trump Under age 50 20% Over age 50 19% LGBTQ 24%
Elements of the message that work: • Trump law and order message resonates with 27% of Black voters • Expanding opportunities for Black people also resonate 1 Political Climate 2 Upcoming Election 3 Issue Environment
4 Message Building 5 Conclusion 32 Who these messages shifted?
20% 12% 15% motivation to vote increased their perception of the increased their likelihood to vote increased their power of their vote
31% Ages 18-24 32% Ages 18-24 25% Ages 18-24 23% Ages 25-34 25% Ages 25-34 18% Ages 25-34 25% 49 and under noncollege 26% LGBTQ 19% LGBTQ
27% $75-250k a year 18% Small town/rural area 19% Women ages 18-49 25% College Grad 18% 49 and under noncollege
29% Women college grad 15% Small town/rural area 26% 49 and under college grad
The best way to increase vote likelihood is to increase perceptions of political power.