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Connecting Black Voters to Political Power

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Connecting Black Voters to Political Power Connecting Black Voters to Political Power Survey of Black Voters in the US | September 2020 1 2 Research Methodology 1. Explore reactions to significant current events (COVID-19, racial uprising, upcoming election, etc) to determine how it is shifting political Objectives consciousness of Black voters. 2. Determine persuasive/mobilization messaging to increase Black political engagement in upcoming elections, and beyond. Black voters and oversamples Sample of rural voters, immigrant Party ID voters, and LGBTQ voters 15% N = 800 5% +100 OS Rural Voters These findings are from a proprietary survey conducted by Size +50 OS Immigrant Voters HIT Strategies on behalf of Black Futures Labs. This survey +50 OS LGBTQ Voters consisted of 800 voters, with an oversample of rural voters, immigrant voters, and LGBTQ voters. The survey was conducted via online panel. The survey fielded from August 27 – September 7, 2020 and the margin of error is +/- 3.1% with a confidence level of 95%. 80% Geo National Total Democrat Total Republican Independent 3 Key Findings • Presidential Horserace. Biden is significantly underperforming Hillary Clinton’s margins amongst Black voters (-15%) which is concentrated amongst younger Black voters (-20%). This is a combination of Trump increasing his approval rating and both Biden and Harris dropping amongst younger Black voters • Trump Rhetoric: 27% of respondents found our pro Trump message to be convincing (6-10), with 20% rating it as very convincing (20%). Trump’s bootstrap rhetoric is gaining far too much ground with Black voters. • Issues: Racism, Coronavirus, and the Economy were the top rated across all groups of Black voters. Notably, making a difference on issues that matter most to them is a top motivating factor for why they vote. That means this election must be seen as a tool improve racism to mobilize our least likely voters. • Police Brutality Reforms: Defunding and divesting money away from the police are rated as the least favorable reform options. Body cams and holding officers accountable in court are more favorable options. • Messaging: Top performing messages vary by demographic. But messages that anchor voting as a form a protest, demonstrate the power of their vote, and remind them of the collective power of our votes were the most effective at shifting Black voters on our key metrics. • Shift: On metrics such as vote likelihood, motivation to vote, and perceptions of power our messaging was most likely to shift younger-cynical voters and residents of small towns and rural areas. • Barriers & Motivators: Aside from COVID-19 being the biggest barrier to voting in this election, most voters believe that they believe their vote doesn’t make a difference is the largest barrier to voting. Removing Trump is the top motivator this year for Black voters to turnout. 4 Defining Demographics Shift to More Powerful Shift to Increased Vote Shift to More Total Under age 50 (60%) Over age 50 (40%) (20%) Likelihood (12%) Motivated (15%) Ø 74% Biden Ø 66% Biden Ø 87% Biden Ø 65% Biden Ø 57% Biden Ø 69% Biden Vote for Ø 11% Trump Ø 14% Trump Ø 7% Trump Ø 14% Trump Ø 18% Trump Ø 12% Trump POTUS Ø 6% Und. Ø 8% Und. Ø 3% Und. Ø 8% Und. Ø 10% Und. Ø 7% Und. Top 3 • Racism (55%) • Racism (48%) • COVID (65%) • Racism (52%) • Racism (48%) • Racism (48%) Important • COVID (52%) • COVID (40%) • Racism (64%) • COVID (48%) • COVID (36%) • COVID (38%) Issues • Economy (35%) • Economy (34%) • Economy (37%) • Economy (31%) • Economy (27%) • Economy (32%) • Punitive power Top • Protest (56%) • Protest (46%) • Punitive power • Biden (35%) • Protest (38%) (52%) Messages • Biden (55%) • Strength in (77%) • Punitive power • Biden (38%) • Biden (46%) (Top box – • Strength in numbers (43%) • Biden (74%) (32%) • Punitive power • Strength in rated 8-10) numbers (54%) • Biden (42%) • Protest (73%) • Protest (32%) (37%) numbers (44%) • COVID (25%) • COVID (35%) • Doesn’t change • COVID (29%) • COVID (39%) • COVID (38%) • Doesn’t change Top 3 • Doesn’t change things (11%) • Doesn’t change • Doesn’t change • Doesn’t change things (19%) Reasons to things (24%) • COVID (11%) things (17%) things (29%) things (31%) • Vote not NOT vote • Vote not properly • Don’t like the • Vote not properly • Vote not properly • Vote not properly properly counted counted (17%) candidates (8%) counted (12%) counted (19%) counted (15%) (12%) • Support • Remove Trump • Remove Trump • Remove Trump • Remove Trump • Remove Trump candidates I like (27%) (27%) Top 3 (29%) (32%) (30%) (27%) • Make difference on • Elect Biden (23%) Reason to • Make difference • Elect Biden (27%) • Make difference on • Remove Trump issues (25%) • Support vote on issues (24%) • Make difference on issues (21%) (26%) • Support candidate candidates I like • Elect Biden (12%) issues (21%) • Elect Biden (16%) • Pressure from I like (23%) (23%) others (17%) 1 Political Climate 2 Upcoming Election 3 Issue Environment 4 Message Building 5 Shift Measurement 6 Conclusion 6 Black Voters are unhappy with the country on every level How satisfied are you with the direction in which the country is headed? Under Over Total Men Women LGBTQ Dissatisfied 43% 20% age 50 age 50 Satisfied 34% 35% 33% 46% 17% 59% Very Dissatisfied 64% 63% 65% 51% 82% 40% Satisfied 19% 15% Somewhat Don’t know/Ref 2% 2% 2% 3% 0% 1% Do you approve or disapprove of way Donald Trump’s job as President? Under Over Total Men Women LGBTQ Disapprove 64% 12% age 50 age 50 Approve 20% 22% 18% 29% 8% 37% Disapprove 76% 74% 78% 67% 90% 62% Strongly Approve 16% 5% Don’t know/Ref 4% 3% 4% 5% 2% 2% Somewhat How would you rate the economic conditions in the country today? Under Over Total Men Women LGBTQ age 50 age 50 Poor 32% 34% Good 31% 32% 30% 41% 16% 51% Poor 66% 65% 68% 55% 83% 48% Very Don’t know/Ref 3% 3% 2% 4% 1% 2% Good 13% 18% Somewhat 7 Favorability - Politicians Rate your feelings toward some people using a scale from zero to ten, on which a “10” means that you feel VERY WARM and FAVORABLE towards them, a “0” means that you feel VERY COLD and UNFAVORABLE, and a “5” means that you do not feel particularly warm or cold. Joe Biden 55% 12% 25% 9% Kamala Harris 49% 12% 28% 10% Bernie Sanders 42% 17% 31% 10% Stacey Abrams 32% 16% 33% 19% Mike Pence 11% 9% 69% 10% Donald Trump 9% 8% 75% 8% Pro (6-10) Neutral (5) Con (0-4) Don't Know/Ref 1 Political Climate 2 Upcoming Election 3 Issue Environment 4 Message Building 5 Conclusion 9 Recent protest have increased optimism toward the election and likelihood to vote Please indicate whether or not each of the following words describes How likely are you to vote in the November election? how you feel about the upcoming general election. 5% 55% 55% Does describe 14% 47% 7% 74% 31% 31% 29% 29% 26% 26% 21% 21% Extremely likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not likely at all DK/Ref Under Over Total Men Women LGBTQ age 50 age 50 Extremely likely 74% 75% 75% 62% 92% 62% Somewhat likely 7% 8% 8% 11% 2% 11% Angry Proud Anxious Excited Hopeful Optimistic Interested Helpless Indifferent Not very likely 14% 12% 12% 20% 5% 18% Frusturated Overwhlemed Not likely at all 5% 5% 5% 7% 1% 9% 10 Biden doing much worse and Trump doing much better then 2016 with key groups of Black voters Who would you vote for President if the election were today? Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Joe Biden or a 3rd Party Candidate for President? Shift from Clinton Support 2016 Total 74% 11% 15% -15 Men 72% 14% 14% -9 Women 78% 8% 13% -20 Ages 18-24 62% 15% 23% -20 Ages 25-34 62% 17% 21% -20 Ages 35-44 69% 13% 18% -20 Biden Trump Other (Undecided + Not voting + Don't know) 11 Kamala Harris has positive impact on Biden campaign but is severely under water with young voters Does Joe Biden’s Vice Presidential pick, Kamala Kamala Harris Favorability by Age Group Harris, make you any more or less likely to to vote for Joe Biden for President? 18-24 21% 13% 44% 22% Age 18-34 14% Less Likely 25-34 28% 16% 44% 12% 9% 35-44 44% 10% 36% 9% 27% 60% 45-54 55% 15% 25% 55-64 76% 10% 11% 4% 65+ 77% 8% 10% 6% More likely No difference Less likely Pro (6-10) Neutral (5) Anti (0-4) DK/REF Source: HIT Strategies August 2020 Survey for Black Futures Lab of 925 National Black Registered Voters 12 House of Representatives race If the election was today, who would you vote as your House Representative? Total 71% 11% 18% Men 69% 13% 18% Women 75% 9% 16% Under age 50 62% 13% 24% Over age 50 85% 6% 8% LGBTQ 67% 15% 17% Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Other (Undecided + Not voting + Don't know) 13 Groups with lowest perceptions of power are also the least likely to vote How much power do you feel that your vote has to create change in your community? Total 56% 16% 20% 9% Men 56% 17% 21% 7% Women 58% 14% 20% 9% Under 47% 16% 26% 11% age 50 Over 69% 15% 12% 4% age 50 LGBTQ 47% 19% 28% 7% Extremely powerful (8-10) Somewhat powerful (6-7) Not very powerful (3-5) Not powerful at all (0-2) DK/Ref 1 Political Climate 2 Upcoming Election 3 Issue Environment 4 Message Building 5 Conclusion 15 Black voters issue priorities Racism and Discrimination 55% Tier 1 Coronavirus 52% Issues Economy/Jobs 35% Healthcare 29% Criminal Justice Reform 21% Tier 2 Issues Gun Violence 17% K-12 Education 11% Climate Change 10% Tier 3 Issues Voter Suppression 10% Corruption/Money in Politics 9% Wealth inequality 9% Taxes 8% Opioids/Drugs 4% Immigration 4% Reproductive Rights 2% 16 Black voters are pursuing safer alternatives to cast their votes, equally considering all options How do you plan on voting in the upcoming 2020 general election? Under Over Men Women
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