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Conspiracy Theory Beliefs: Measurement and the Role of Perceived Lack Of Conspiracy theory beliefs: measurement and the role of perceived lack of control Ana Stojanov A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand November, 2019 Abstract Despite conspiracy theory beliefs’ potential to lead to negative outcomes, psychologists have only relatively recently taken a strong interest in their measurement and underlying mechanisms. In this thesis I test a particularly common motivational claim about the origin of conspiracy theory beliefs: that they are driven by threats to personal control. Arguing that previous experimental studies have used inconsistent and potentially confounded measures of conspiracy beliefs, I first developed and validated a new Conspiracy Mentality Scale, and then used it to test the control hypothesis in six systematic and well-powered studies. Little evidence for the hypothesis was found in these studies, or in a subsequent meta-analysis of all experimental evidence on the subject, although the latter indicated that specific measures of conspiracies are more likely to change in response to control manipulations than are generic or abstract measures. Finally, I examine how perceived lack of control relates to conspiracy beliefs in two very different naturalistic settings, both of which are likely to threaten individuals feelings of control: a political crisis over Macedonia’s name change, and series of tornadoes in North America. In the first, I found that participants who had opposed the name change reported stronger conspiracy beliefs than those who has supported it. In the second, participants who had been more seriously affected by the tornadoes reported decreased control, which in turn predicted their conspiracy beliefs, but only for threat-related claims. Tentatively, I conclude that threats to control can motivate conspiracy ideation, but only under particular conditions, such as when the threat is extreme and a conspiracy theory is available that offers a relevant explanation, although further research is necessary to explore the boundaries of the effects. i Publication note Chapter 2 has been published in Social Psychology. Stojanov, A., & Halberstadt, J. (2019). The Conspiracy Mentality Scale: Distinguishing between irrational and rational suspicion. Social Psychology, 50(4 ), 215-232 Chapter 3 is currently under review in British Journal of Social Psychology. Chapter 4 is currently under review in European Journal of Social Psychology. Chapter 5 is in preparation for submission to Social Psychological and Personality Science. ii Acknowledgements When I embarked on this journey in 2016 I expected sleepless nights, long days in the office and coming home one day years later, straight after submitting the thesis, not recognizing my children because they have “miraculously” time traveled several years into the future. It was nothing as close to this and the person responsible for this is my primary supervisor professor Jamin Halberstadt, with whom I collaborated impeccably and whom I can’t thank enough. Thank you Jamin – for being available on very short notice, for agreeing to work on a paper with one week deadline, for the wonderful things you wrote in the recommendation letters, for inspiring me to learn new statistic skills, for improving my writing, refining my reasoning, providing resources and advice, pushing me out of my comfort zone, being my role model and - providing me with the opportunity to experience all this at the University of Otago. Professor Jesse Bering – although somewhat in the background during this journey, knowing that you are on board during this turbulent ride provided the feeling of security and calm. Thank you for the feedback which helped build my confidence as a writer. I am honored to have worked with you. I would also like to thank the Division of Sciences and the Department of Psychology at the University of Otago that have generously funded my PhD studies and the Open Society Foundation that has granted me a Civil Society Scholar Award to conduct a study presented in Chapter 5. A special thanks goes to the Social Cognition Lab RA: Sarah Hill, Sussie Campbel, Gabriela Visini, Samantha Smith, Ruth J.M. Huges, Masnoon Majeed and Jean Hwee Low. iii I am indebted to the members of the Social Cognition Lab for the stimulating discussions and food for thought they provided as well as the peculiar sense of humor that made our Friday lab meetings enjoyable. Keren – I couldn’t have asked for a better friend and colleague. Thank you for being part of my life and source of support, motivation, inspiration and consolation during the past three years. Vicky and Harry – thank you for the warm welcome and support. Finally, I would like to thank my family. My mum and dad for setting high expectations for me, believing in me and supporting me in any imaginable way – thank you for always having my best interest in mind – I am lucky to be your daughter. My husband Zoran for being the best husband in the world – because of you I am a better person. Thank you for embarking on this challenging journey with me and always being by my side. Neda and Ivan – thank you for being the sweet children you are! Thank you for our family time, family hugs and family games that have provided opportunity for incubation of my research ideas. I love you! iv Table of Contents Abstract ....................................................................................................................................... i Publication note ......................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... v List of Figures .......................................................................................................................... vii List of Tables .......................................................................................................................... viii Chapter 1: The study of conspiracy theory belief ...................................................................... 1 Chapter 2: The conspiracy mentality scale: Distinguishing between irrational and rational suspicion .................................................................................................................................. 37 Abstract ................................................................................................................................ 39 Study 1: Scale construction .................................................................................................. 47 Study 2. Predictive validity and confirmatory factor analysis ............................................. 58 Study 3a. Convergent and divergent validity ....................................................................... 65 Study 3b. Test – Retest reliability ........................................................................................ 72 Study 4. Construct validity across three nations .................................................................. 72 General discussion................................................................................................................ 76 Chapter 3: Does Perceived Lack of Control Lead to Conspiracy Theory Beliefs? ................. 97 Abstract ................................................................................................................................ 99 Study 1................................................................................................................................ 104 Study 2................................................................................................................................ 108 Study 3................................................................................................................................ 110 Study 4................................................................................................................................ 111 Study 5................................................................................................................................ 113 Study 6................................................................................................................................ 118 Meta-analyses ..................................................................................................................... 121 General Discussion ............................................................................................................. 123 References .......................................................................................................................... 127 Appendix ............................................................................................................................ 137 Online Supplemental Material ........................................................................................... 139 Chapter 4: Does lack of control lead to conspiracy beliefs? A meta-analysis ....................... 149 Abstract .............................................................................................................................. 150 Method ..............................................................................................................................
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