City of Parramatta
Population and household forecasts 2011 to 2036
population forecast
Compiled and presented in forecast.id®. http://forecast.id.com.au/parramatta Table of contents
About the forecast areas 3 Drivers of population change 6 Population summary 8 Components of population change 12 Population and age structure 15 Household types 18 Dwellings and development map 20 Population and age structure map 22 Household types map 24 Residential development 27 Net migration by age 28 Non-private dwellings 30 Births and deaths 32 About the forecasts 33 Factors of population change 35 Household and suburb life cycles 37 Glossary 42 Page 3 of 44 About the forecast areas
Parramatta City is located in Sydney's western suburbs, about 24 kilometres from the Sydney GPO. Parramatta City is bounded by The Hills Shire and Hornsby Shire in the north, the City of Ryde in the east, and Cumberland Council in the south and the west.
Important Population 2016 Population 2036 Change 2016-36 Statistics 236,272 397,339 68.17%
Forecast areas City of Parramatta Legend City of Parramatta
Overlay
Small areas
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id, the population experts, September 2016.
Page 4 of 44 Page 5 of 44 Drivers of population change Development history Parramatta City is located in Sydney's western and north western suburbs. The City is a predominantly established, residential, commercial and institutional municipality with a diverse range of housing stock and residential neighbourhoods. In 2016, the City underwent a major change to its administrative boundaries, with the suburbs south of the Western (M4) Motorway being transferred to Cumberland Council (most of the suburb of Granville, and all parts of Guildford, South Granville and Merrylands). The City’s northern boundary was extended to the Hills (M2) Motorway, gaining areas formerly within the Hills Shire and the Shire of Hornsby (North Rocks, part of Beecroft and the parts of Northmead, North Parramatta, Epping and Carlingford that fell outside the old boundaries) as well as its southern boundary being extended east along the Western (M4) Motorway to encompass Silverwater, Newington, Wentworth Pont and Sydney Olympic Park (previously within the former City of Auburn)The Parramatta CBD area is one of the earliest areas of settlement in Australia and serves as the major commercial centre of western Sydney. The Parramatta Township was established in 1790, with development starting south of the Parramatta River, then progressing to the north. Growth was minimal until the 1850s, aided by the construction of the railway line. Expansion continued in the late 1800s, with Parramatta becoming a commercial centre for the western Sydney area. The City’s growth continued in the 1920s. The most significant development occurred during the post-war years, aided by industrial growth, immigration and the establishment of several public housing estates. The population boomed during the 1950s and 1960s. Growth has continued since the 1960s, although at a slower rate. The population continued to increase steadily from the early 1990s, rising from about 152,000 in 1991 to about 195,000 in 2011. Recent growth was due mainly to urban consolidation (medium and high density housing) in existing residential areas, and the redevelopment of former industrial areas in the south-eastern suburbs. The Sydney 2000 Olympic Games were the impetus for significant growth in the areas closest to Sydney, with redevelopment into sporting, recreation and entertainment venues, and the construction of medium and high density housing. Growth is expected to continue in the southern areas, aided by rezoning and the continued development of former industrial and government land. Additionally, there is likely to be continued development and intensification around the CBD, and Epping station, as well as the redevelopment of commercial property along Parramatta Road and Church Street Migration patterns In recent years, the City has played a range of housing roles specific to different suburbs. The most prominent role has been the attraction of young adults to the City from surrounding Local Government Areas. The City is attractive due to its access to employment, education and transport. The City has a broad economic base, with significant employment in office, institutional and industrial uses. The location of some of Sydney’s major hospitals is a significant source of local employment. While the City is an attractor of young adults, it loses young families with children to areas to the north and west. The supply of family style detached housing is not being expanded in the City while at the same time significant numbers of new detached houses are being constructed in The Hills Shire and Blacktown City. It is generally assumed that most of these broad patterns will continue into the future, most notably flows into the City from areas to the south and east, the loss of population to growing areas to the north, and the attraction of young adults.
Page 6 of 44 Historical migration flows, City of Parramatta, 2006-2011
'Overseas' refers to arrivals only.
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, September 2016.
Page 7 of 44 Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals only, based on answers to the census question “where did the person usually live 5-years ago. Housing role and function With the progressive residential development of the City, areas have developed different roles within the housing market. Many areas within the City tend to be attractive to established families, such as the north eastern suburbs of Beecroft, Carlingford, Epping and Eastwood as well as Winston Hills. Areas around central Parramatta (Parramatta CBD and Remainder, North Parramatta, Harris Park, Northmead, Rosehill and Westmead) are more strongly influenced by the inflow of younger people, as are suburbs such as Silverwater and Sydney Olympic Park. Wentworth Point differs slightly in that, despite being a high density area, it attracts some older adults, possibly downsizers from within the City and surrounding areas seeking apartments with water views. Some western areas such as Toongabbie and Pendle Hill, are likely to regenerate over the forecast period attracting some younger families. This variety of function and role of the small areas in the City means that population outcomes differ across the City. Housing supply There are also large differences in the supply of residential property within the City which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures over the forecast period. A number of significant new residential opportunities have been identified throughout the City. Parramatta CBD and remainder will continue to see redevelopment of land for high density mixed use purposes. Significant supply remains north of the M4, particularly remaining industrial sites in Wentworth Point, as well as commercial Granville-Clyde, and along large commercial sites in Granville, such as along Church Street, as well as Sydney Olympic Park and the yet to be developed Carter Street Precinct. Similarly, suburbs such as Ermington and Melrose Park, which have large industrial precincts are likely to see large scale redevelopment, along the lines of the AE2 site in Ermington and, finally, the industrial precinct of Camelia also presents significant potential with the prospective redevelopment of the James Hardie site. New dwellings in these areas range from major lower density redevelopment sites to multi storey apartment developments. It is assumed that these areas will continue to attract young adults in particular who are seeking accommodation close to employment markets and education facilities. Established residential areas such as Carlingford, Epping and Telopea are likely to have increased levels of medium and higher density dwellings following redevelopment of identified precincts around stations, along main roads (such as Pennant Hills Road) or as a result of a large scale public housing redevelopment. These are likely to diversify the existing housing types and provide more housing opportunities for young adults and potentially older downsizers. Other areas, such as Constitution Hill, Old Toongabbie, Beecroft, Oatlands, Newington, Silverwater and Winston Hills are expected to have relatively low numbers of additional dwelling stock over the forecast period, with any new dwellings being developed as a result of small-scale infill opportunity, with the redevelopment of existing housing to produce a small number of units or townhouses. Other resources Historical country of birth by small area (1991-2011) Previous residential location of current residents (2006-2011) Migration by location in and out of the LGA (2006-2011) Migration by age in and out of the LGA (2006-2011)
Page 8 of 44 Population summary
This table summarises the population for the City of Parramatta and each of its small areas. This enables you to see how population change is affecting different parts of the LGA in different ways. Some small areas may be rapidly growing whilst others are stable or even declining in population. Continue to the forecast results section to see detailed forecasts of population, households, and dwellings for each of the small areas. Please note that population numbers in forecast.id for the 2011 base year are derived from Estimated Resident Population from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. These differ from (and are usually higher than) Census counts as they factor in population missed by the Census and population overseas on Census night. They are generally considered a more accurate measure of population size than Census counts.
Page 9 of 44 Population summary
Change between 2011 City of Parramatta Forecast year and 2036
Avg. annual Area 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 Total change % change City of Parramatta 203,183 236,272 277,330 317,486 360,500 397,339 +194,156 +2.72 Beecroft 2,555 2,626 2,689 2,769 2,843 2,934 +379 +0.56 Camelia 0 2 2 633 2,159 3,678 +3,678 0 Carlingford 22,736 25,826 30,793 32,621 34,145 35,827 +13,091 +1.84 Constitution Hill 4,135 4,287 4,288 4,294 4,326 4,360 +225 +0.21 Dundas 4,022 4,880 5,040 5,165 5,268 5,380 +1,358 +1.17 Dundas Valley 4,953 5,547 5,943 6,111 6,315 6,504 +1,550 +1.10 Eastwood 3,937 4,586 4,591 4,682 4,776 4,883 +946 +0.86 Epping 21,285 24,530 27,979 32,052 35,022 37,271 +15,986 +2.27 Ermington - Melrose Park 9,765 12,076 16,011 22,464 31,180 40,190 +30,424 +5.82 Granville (part) - Clyde 4,551 4,640 6,182 9,955 14,375 18,335 +13,784 +5.73 Harris Park 5,350 6,013 6,295 6,363 6,455 6,593 +1,243 +0.84 Newington 5,579 5,729 5,629 5,593 5,584 5,582 +3 0 North Parramatta 13,476 14,287 14,781 16,195 18,762 21,964 +8,488 +1.97 North Rocks 7,448 8,650 9,122 8,970 8,933 9,011 +1,563 +0.76 Northmead 10,702 12,302 12,494 12,943 13,017 13,176 +2,474 +0.84 Oatlands 5,615 5,860 5,965 6,096 6,276 6,506 +892 +0.59 Old Toongabbie 3,139 3,372 3,336 3,341 3,366 3,406 +267 +0.33 Parramatta CBD 8,223 12,455 20,534 27,254 32,154 34,632 +26,409 +5.92 Parramatta Remainder 12,604 13,612 17,594 19,053 20,241 20,614 +8,010 +1.99 Rosehill 2,888 4,117 4,823 5,053 5,149 5,276 +2,388 +2.44 Rydalmere 6,665 7,315 7,895 8,519 9,051 9,616 +2,950 +1.48 Silverwater 3,323 3,737 4,312 4,344 4,381 4,445 +1,122 +1.17 Sydney Olympic Park 66 1,698 5,018 8,928 17,525 25,207 +25,141 +26.85 Telopea 4,843 5,817 6,269 9,057 12,271 14,135 +9,292 +4.38 Toongabbie 7,291 7,529 7,559 7,673 7,826 8,048 +757 +0.40 Wentworth Point 2,897 7,777 14,259 17,926 18,411 18,286 +15,389 +7.65 Wentworthville - Pendle Hill 4,892 5,420 5,960 6,138 6,376 6,710 +1,818 +1.27 Westmead 8,145 9,296 9,558 10,860 11,750 11,981 +3,836 +1.56 Winston Hills 12,099 12,286 12,411 12,437 12,562 12,792 +693 +0.22 Parramatta 20,827 26,067 38,128 46,307 52,396 55,246 +34,419 +3.98
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, September 2016.
Historical population and dwellings (1991-2011) Historical Estimated Resident Population (2003-2013)
Page 10 of 44 Page 11 of 44 Components of population change
There are two ways in which populations can change, through net migration and/or through natural increase (births minus deaths). Some areas are more driven by one or other of these factors. Migration is largely driven by housing development, whereas natural increase is a function of the age of the population. Components of population change
City of Parramatta Forecast period
Component 2012 to 2016 2017 to 2021 2022 to 2026 2027 to 2031 2032 to 2036 Births 17,427 21,136 24,581 28,190 31,478 Deaths 5,987 7,098 7,797 8,691 9,633
Natural increase/decrease 11,440 14,038 16,784 19,500 21,846 Net migration 21,569 26,767 23,231 23,289 14,725 Change in persons in non-private dwellings 80 253 140 225 268 Total population change 33,089 41,058 40,155 43,014 36,839
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, September 2016.
Forecast population change
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, September 2016.
Page 12 of 44 Forecast births, deaths and natural increase/decrease
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, September 2016.
Page 13 of 44 Forecast in, out and net migration
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, September 2016.
Page 14 of 44 Population and age structure
Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care. The forecast age groups of the City of Parramatta is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles. Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Change between City of Parramatta - Total persons 2011 2026 2036 2011 and 2036 Age group (years) Number % Number % Number % Number 0 to 4 13,674 6.7 22,266 7.0 27,789 7.0 +14,115 5 to 9 11,031 5.4 17,296 5.4 21,409 5.4 +10,378 10 to 14 10,828 5.3 14,695 4.6 18,024 4.5 +7,196 15 to 19 11,408 5.6 16,273 5.1 19,826 5.0 +8,418 20 to 24 15,882 7.8 26,092 8.2 32,082 8.1 +16,199 25 to 29 20,902 10.3 36,322 11.4 45,128 11.4 +24,226 30 to 34 18,647 9.2 33,002 10.4 41,588 10.5 +22,941 35 to 39 15,762 7.8 26,166 8.2 33,135 8.3 +17,373 40 to 44 14,204 7.0 21,645 6.8 27,381 6.9 +13,177 45 to 49 13,607 6.7 18,827 5.9 23,866 6.0 +10,259 50 to 54 12,523 6.2 17,186 5.4 21,556 5.4 +9,033 55 to 59 10,798 5.3 15,271 4.8 19,221 4.8 +8,423 60 to 64 9,240 4.5 13,555 4.3 16,531 4.2 +7,291 65 to 69 7,511 3.7 11,365 3.6 13,863 3.5 +6,352 70 to 74 5,716 2.8 9,186 2.9 11,834 3.0 +6,118 75 to 79 4,536 2.2 7,496 2.4 9,687 2.4 +5,151 80 to 84 3,483 1.7 5,495 1.7 7,184 1.8 +3,701 85 and over 3,430 1.7 5,347 1.7 7,236 1.8 +3,806 Total persons 203,183 100.0 317,486 100.0 397,339 100.0 +194,156
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, September 2016.
Historical service age groups (1991-2011) Historical five year age groups (1991-2011)
Page 15 of 44 Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, September 2016.
Page 16 of 44 Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, September 2016. Key findings In 2011, the dominant age structure for persons in the City of Parramatta was ages 25 to 29 , which accounted for 10.3% of the total persons. The largest increase in persons between 2011 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 25 to 29 , which is expected to increase by 15,420 and account for 11.4% of the total persons. The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 25 to 29 years, with a total of 36,322 persons.
Page 17 of 44 Household types
Analysing the future household structure in City of Parramatta, especially in conjunction with age structure, provides insight to the role the area plays in the housing market. Some areas, usually with separate housing stock, are dominated by families. Others, with more dense housing in inner city locations have significant numbers of lone person households and couples without dependents. Forecast household types
Change between City of Parramatta 2011 2026 2036 2011 and 2036 Type Number % Number % Number % Number Couple families with dependents 26,304 36.1 38,638 32.7 47,728 31.5 +21,424 Couples without dependents 17,712 24.3 31,174 26.4 39,614 26.2 +21,902 Group households 3,003 4.1 5,559 4.7 7,279 4.8 +4,276 Lone person households 15,947 21.9 27,548 23.3 37,169 24.6 +21,222 One parent family 6,877 9.4 10,257 8.7 13,160 8.7 +6,283 Other families 3,095 4.2 5,045 4.3 6,348 4.2 +3,253
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, September 2016.
Historical household types (1991-2011) Historical households with children (1991-2011) Historical households without children (1991-2011)
Page 18 of 44 Forecast household types
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, September 2016.
Page 19 of 44 Forecast change in household types, 2011 to 2036
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, September 2016. Key findings In 2011, the dominant household type in the City of Parramatta was Couple families with dependents, which accounted for 36.1% of all households. The largest increase between 2011 and 2026 is forecast to be in Couples without dependents, which will increase by 13,462 households and account for 26.4% of all households. In contrast Other families is forecast to increase by 1,950 households, to comprise 4.3% of all households in 2026, compared to 4.2% in 2011.
Page 20 of 44 Dwellings and development map
Visualising the geographic pattern of growth in dwelling stock across the City of Parramatta is a good starting point for assessing the scale and type of change each part of the area is undergoing. Some areas will be experiencing significant growth in new dwellings, either through greenfield development or densification and renewal. However it would be a mistake to assume that areas not experiencing significant housing development are not undergoing change. Other processes will be at work such as the aging-in-place of the existing population and changing household structures. The age structure and household type maps will uncover these population shifts. Forecast dwellings and development map City of Parramatta, 2011 to 2036 percent change Legend City of Parramatta
Small areas
1.0 to 91.8 91.9 to 328.2 328.3 to 508.9 509.0 to 179998.1 179998.2 to 1219388.7
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id, the population experts, September 2016.
Page 21 of 44 Forecast dwellings and development
Change between City of Parramatta 2011 2036 2011 and 2036
Area Number % Number % Number % City of Parramatta 75,412 100.0 157,294 100.0 +81,882 +108.6 Beecroft 878 1.2 1,019 0.6 +141 +16.1 Camelia 1 0.0 1,801 1.1 +1,800 +179,998.2 Carlingford 7,848 10.4 12,950 8.2 +5,102 +65.0 Constitution Hill 1,487 2.0 1,611 1.0 +124 +8.3 Dundas 1,459 1.9 1,879 1.2 +420 +28.8 Dundas Valley 1,881 2.5 2,494 1.6 +613 +32.6 Eastwood 1,437 1.9 1,789 1.1 +352 +24.5 Epping 7,827 10.4 14,258 9.1 +6,431 +82.2 Ermington - Melrose Park 3,525 4.7 14,491 9.2 +10,966 +311.1 Granville (part) - Clyde 1,690 2.2 7,099 4.5 +5,409 +320.1 Harris Park 2,033 2.7 2,438 1.6 +405 +19.9 Newington 2,098 2.8 2,119 1.3 +21 +1.0 North Parramatta 5,344 7.1 8,862 5.6 +3,518 +65.8 North Rocks 2,499 3.3 3,185 2.0 +686 +27.5 Northmead 4,496 6.0 5,490 3.5 +994 +22.1 Oatlands 1,892 2.5 2,283 1.5 +391 +20.7 Old Toongabbie 1,103 1.5 1,232 0.8 +129 +11.7 Parramatta CBD 3,626 4.8 15,528 9.9 +11,902 +328.3 Parramatta Remainder 4,882 6.5 8,212 5.2 +3,330 +68.2 Rosehill 1,110 1.5 2,130 1.4 +1,020 +91.9 Rydalmere 2,369 3.1 3,629 2.3 +1,260 +53.2 Silverwater 711 0.9 1,167 0.7 +456 +64.1 Sydney Olympic Park 1 0.0 12,195 7.8 +12,194 +1,219,387.8 Telopea 2,094 2.8 5,747 3.7 +3,653 +174.4 Toongabbie 2,544 3.4 2,947 1.9 +403 +15.8 Wentworth Point 1,505 2.0 9,166 5.8 +7,661 +509.0 Wentworthville - Pendle Hill 1,706 2.3 2,399 1.5 +693 +40.6 Westmead 3,138 4.2 4,551 2.9 +1,413 +45.0 Winston Hills 4,227 5.6 4,622 2.9 +395 +9.3
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, September 2016.
Page 22 of 44 Population and age structure map
Knowing when and where to deliver age-based services is an essential part of local government planning. Mapping the distribution of selected age groups across the City of Parramatta provides the evidence-base for efficiently targeting and delivering these services. You can learn more about how places move through cycles of change which affect their age by visiting population and age structure. Population and age structure map - persons aged 0 to 4 years City of Parramatta, 2011 to 2036 percent change
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id, the population experts, September 2016.
Page 23 of 44 Population and age structure - persons aged 0 to 4 years
Change between City of Parramatta 2011 2036 2011 and 2036
Area Number % Number % Number % City of Parramatta 13,674 6.7 27,789 7.0 +14,115 +103.2 Beecroft 123 4.8 151 5.1 +27 +22.3 Camelia 0 -- 408 11.1 +408 0 Carlingford 1,155 5.1 2,002 5.6 +847 +73.3 Constitution Hill 338 8.2 321 7.4 -18 -5.3 Dundas 326 8.1 397 7.4 +71 +21.9 Dundas Valley 374 7.5 477 7.3 +103 +27.7 Eastwood 208 5.3 299 6.1 +92 +44.1 Epping 1,026 4.8 2,147 5.8 +1,122 +109.3 Ermington - Melrose Park 640 6.6 3,056 7.6 +2,416 +377.5 Granville (part) - Clyde 372 8.2 1,691 9.2 +1,319 +354.6 Harris Park 442 8.3 538 8.2 +96 +21.7 Newington 544 9.8 491 8.8 -53 -9.7 North Parramatta 907 6.7 1,481 6.7 +574 +63.3 North Rocks 477 6.4 525 5.8 +48 +10.0 Northmead 833 7.8 928 7.0 +95 +11.4 Oatlands 304 5.4 347 5.3 +43 +14.1 Old Toongabbie 236 7.5 237 7.0 +1 +0.3 Parramatta CBD 587 7.1 2,560 7.4 +1,973 +336.1 Parramatta Remainder 908 7.2 1,492 7.2 +584 +64.3 Rosehill 228 7.9 394 7.5 +166 +72.7 Rydalmere 490 7.3 707 7.4 +217 +44.3 Silverwater 171 5.1 257 5.8 +86 +50.4 Sydney Olympic Park 5 7.6 1,876 7.4 +1,871 +37,412.9 Telopea 278 5.7 914 6.5 +637 +229.0 Toongabbie 505 6.9 505 6.3 -1 -0.1 Wentworth Point 170 5.9 1,302 7.1 +1,132 +666.1 Wentworthville - Pendle Hill 290 5.9 375 5.6 +85 +29.4 Westmead 842 10.3 1,051 8.8 +209 +24.8 Winston Hills 896 7.4 861 6.7 -35 -3.9
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, September 2016.
Page 24 of 44 Household types map
Mapping the distribution of different household types across the City of Parramatta provides insight into the roles that different areas play in the housing market and how these are changing. It also identifies where there are concentrations of households which have specific service requirements. You can learn more about how places move through cycles of change which affect their household structure by visiting houshold types. Forecast household types map - Group households City of Parramatta, 2011 to 2036 percent change Legend City of Parramatta
Small areas
-14.3 to 68.9 69.0 to 308.1 308.2 to 404.3 404.4 to 1319999999.9 1320000000.0 to 12100000000.9
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id, the population experts, September 2016.
Page 25 of 44 Forecast household types - Group households
Change between City of Parramatta 2011 2036 2011 and 2036
Area Number % Number % Number % City of Parramatta 3,003 4.1 7,279 4.8 +4,276 +142.4 Beecroft 7 0.8 6 0.6 -1 -14.3 Camelia 0 0.0 132 7.9 +132 +1,320,000,000.0 Carlingford 144 1.9 220 1.8 +76 +52.8 Constitution Hill 37 2.5 36 2.3 -1 -2.7 Dundas 48 3.5 63 3.4 +15 +31.3 Dundas Valley 67 3.7 78 3.2 +11 +16.4 Eastwood 75 5.3 81 4.6 +6 +8.0 Epping 297 3.9 502 3.6 +205 +69.0 Ermington - Melrose Park 104 3.1 395 2.8 +291 +279.8 Granville (part) - Clyde 107 6.4 403 6.0 +296 +276.6 Harris Park 164 8.3 189 8.0 +25 +15.2 Newington 57 2.8 52 2.5 -5 -8.8 North Parramatta 268 5.2 417 4.9 +149 +55.6 North Rocks 23 0.9 23 0.7 0 0 Northmead 160 3.7 183 3.5 +23 +14.4 Oatlands 39 2.1 42 1.9 +3 +7.7 Old Toongabbie 20 1.8 18 1.5 -2 -10.0 Parramatta CBD 341 10.2 1,392 9.4 +1,051 +308.2 Parramatta Remainder 329 7.0 497 6.2 +168 +51.1 Rosehill 47 4.3 73 3.5 +26 +55.3 Rydalmere 73 3.2 87 2.5 +14 +19.2 Silverwater 43 6.2 41 3.6 -2 -4.7 Sydney Olympic Park 0 0.0 1,210 10.7 +1,210 +12,100,000,000.0 Telopea 63 3.1 184 3.3 +121 +192.1 Toongabbie 47 1.9 47 1.6 0 0 Wentworth Point 91 6.4 459 5.3 +368 +404.4 Wentworthville - Pendle Hill 51 3.1 66 2.8 +15 +29.4 Westmead 243 8.2 328 7.6 +85 +35.0 Winston Hills 58 1.4 56 1.2 -2 -3.4
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, September 2016.
Page 26 of 44 Residential development
The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces). Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up. .id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in the City of Parramatta. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.
Page 27 of 44 Forecast residential development, 2011 to 2036
Change in dwellings City of Parramatta between 2011 and 2036 Area number % City of Parramatta +81,882 +108.6 Beecroft +141 +16.1 Camelia +1,800 +179998.2 Carlingford +5,102 +65.0 Constitution Hill +124 +8.3 Dundas +420 +28.8 Dundas Valley +613 +32.6 Eastwood +352 +24.5 Epping +6,431 +82.2 Ermington - Melrose Park +10,966 +311.1 Granville (part) - Clyde +5,409 +320.1 Harris Park +405 +19.9 Newington +21 +1.0 North Parramatta +3,518 +65.8 North Rocks +686 +27.5 Northmead +994 +22.1 Oatlands +391 +20.7 Old Toongabbie +129 +11.7 Parramatta CBD +11,902 +328.3 Parramatta Remainder +3,330 +68.2 Rosehill +1,020 +91.9 Rydalmere +1,260 +53.2 Silverwater +456 +64.1 Sydney Olympic Park +12,194 +1219387.8 Telopea +3,653 +174.4 Toongabbie +403 +15.8 Wentworth Point +7,661 +509.0 Wentworthville - Pendle Hill +693 +40.6 Westmead +1,413 +45.0 Winston Hills +395 +9.3
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, September 2016.
Page 28 of 44 Forecast residential development
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, September 2016.
Page 29 of 44 Net migration by age
Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area. Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks. Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across City of Parramatta depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle. Migration assumptions influenced by: Substantial gain in young adults (18-29 years) attracted to transport, education and employment opportunities as well as affordable housing, particularly in higher density rental accomodation Loss of young families (0-9 and 25-44 years), moving to establish family households elsewhere, most probably in nearby growth areas Some loss of empty nester and retirees seeking housing and lifestyle options elsewhere (55-69 years) Little change in older age groups (70+) Forecast net migration by age group
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, September 2016.
Page 30 of 44 Non-private dwellings
Residential non-private dwellings include aged care facilities as well as defence force facilities, hospitals, prisons, staff quarters and boarding houses. As a general rule, an increase in people aged 18 to 24 living in non-private dwellings indicates a growth in student accommodation, defence force facilities or prisons. Similarly an increase in people aged over 75 living in non-private dwellings indicates growth in aged care facilities. Persons in non-private dwellings
City of Parramatta Year Change between 2011 and 2036
Aged 18 to 24 Aged 75+ Area 2011 2036 Total change years years City of Parramatta 6,003 6,969 +966 +10 +929 Beecroft 4 4 0 0 0 Camelia 0 0 0 0 0 Carlingford 220 379 +159 0 +159 Constitution Hill 0 0 0 0 0 Dundas 200 285 +85 0 +85 Dundas Valley 25 25 0 0 0 Eastwood 0 0 0 0 0 Epping 9 9 0 0 0 Ermington - Melrose Park 213 298 +85 0 +85 Granville (part) - Clyde 74 74 0 0 0 Harris Park 92 92 0 0 0 Newington 0 0 0 0 0 North Parramatta 1,195 1,365 +170 0 +170 North Rocks 126 126 0 0 0 Northmead 132 132 0 0 0 Oatlands 87 87 0 0 0 Old Toongabbie 1 1 0 0 0 Parramatta CBD 414 540 +126 0 +126 Parramatta Remainder 557 621 +64 0 +63 Rosehill 98 98 0 0 0 Rydalmere 176 198 +22 0 +22 Silverwater 1,411 1,448 +37 +10 0 Sydney Olympic Park 65 65 0 0 0 Telopea 0 0 0 0 0 Toongabbie 36 36 0 0 0 Wentworth Point 0 0 0 0 0 Wentworthville - Pendle Hill 57 57 0 0 0 Westmead 580 798 +218 0 +217 Winston Hills 231 231 0 0 0 Parramatta 971 1,161 +190 0 +189
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, September 2016.
Historical dwelling types and structures (1991-2011)
Page 31 of 44 Key findings There were 6,003 people estimated to be living in non-private dwellings in the City of Parramatta in 2011. The number of persons in non-private dwellings in the City of Parramatta is expected to increase to 6,476 persons in 2026 and with a gain 6,969 persons in 2036. Between 2011 and 2026, Westmead is forecast to experience the greatest change, with a gain of 218 persons in non- private dwellings. This is due to an increase of persons in non-private dwellings aged 75 years and over, which is predominantly aged care.
Page 32 of 44 Births and deaths
The number of births in the City of Parramatta are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15- 49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period. Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile. Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
Change between City of Parramatta Year 2011 and 2036 Area 2011 2036 Number City of Parramatta 1.83 1.76 -0.07 Beecroft 2.48 2.21 -0.27 Camelia 2.17 2.12 -0.04 Carlingford 1.59 1.78 +0.18 Constitution Hill 1.93 2.05 +0.12 Dundas 2.35 2.15 -0.20 Dundas Valley 2.27 2.13 -0.14 Eastwood 1.66 1.71 +0.05 Epping 1.49 1.71 +0.22 Ermington - Melrose Park 2.21 1.96 -0.25 Granville (part) - Clyde 2.13 2.16 +0.03 Harris Park 1.98 1.83 -0.15 Newington 2.43 2.35 -0.08 North Parramatta 1.77 1.76 -0.01 North Rocks 1.97 1.99 +0.02 Northmead 2.86 2.30 -0.56 Oatlands 2.82 2.14 -0.68 Old Toongabbie 2.79 2.70 -0.09 Parramatta CBD 1.25 1.42 +0.18 Parramatta Remainder 1.75 1.77 +0.02 Rosehill 2.00 1.90 -0.10 Rydalmere 2.58 2.35 -0.23 Silverwater 0.80 0.96 +0.16 Sydney Olympic Park 0.89 1.44 +0.55 Telopea 1.81 1.70 -0.11 Toongabbie 1.93 2.04 +0.11 Wentworth Point 1.65 1.81 +0.16 Wentworthville - Pendle Hill 1.44 1.62 +0.17 Westmead 1.96 1.85 -0.11 Winston Hills 2.30 2.27 -0.03
Page 33 of 44 Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, September 2016. Death rates The forecast number of deaths in the City of Parramatta is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for the City of Parramatta, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over). Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.
Page 34 of 44 About the forecasts
The City of Parramatta population and household forecasts are undertaken by .id, the population experts, on behalf of the City of Parramatta. During the forecast modeling process, .id assesses what is driving population change in the area and forecasts how the age structure and household types will change as result. Forecasts are only as good as the assumptions they are based on, and.id works closely with the council to ensure we have detailed information about current and planned residential development activity. The forecasts are updated on a rolling cycle to take into account changes in the real world. All assumptions, as well as the results of the forecasts, are made available in this site. The forecasts were last updated in September 2016. Forecasts are available for the City of Parramatta and small areas for each year from 2011 to 2036. The forecasts are designed to provide community groups, Council, investors, business, students and the general public with knowledge to make confident decisions about the future. Whilst all due care has been taken to ensure the content of this website is accurate and current, there may be errors or omissions in it and no legal responsibility is accepted for the information and opinions in this report. In addition, as the website is based on historic information which is subject to revision, we do not guarantee its currency.
Page 35 of 44 Factors of population change
Page 36 of 44 At the small area level, the key factors of population change are the age structure of the existing population, the housing markets attracted to and away from an area and their associated demographic characteristics (fertility patterns, household types etc.) and the supply of dwellings and mix of housing stock in the area.
Dwelling additions The addition of dwellings is the major driver of population growth, providing opportunities for new households (such as young people leaving the family home and divorces) or households relocating from other areas. Current age structure The age structure of the local population impacts on the City of Parramatta's household types and size, the likelihood of the local population having children and to die, as well as the propensity for people to move. Age specific propensities for a population to have children or die are applied to each small area's base population. An older population will have fewer births, more deaths, while a younger population will have vice versa. Birth rates Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having very low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile. Death rates Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men gaining on women's greater life chances. Migration Migration is one of the most important factors of population change. While births and deaths are relatively easy to predict due to reliable age specific behaviour, migration is volatile, often changing due to housing market preferences, economic opportunities and changing household circumstances. Migration patterns vary across Australia and change across time, but most moves tend to be short and incremental in nature. Regional areas have larger moves due to the distances between towns and cities, where people often move for economic reasons, mainly the availability of employment or education and training opportunities. The most mobile age groups in the population are the young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. It is for this reason that young people often move the greatest distances and sometimes move against pre-established patterns. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation if appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.
Page 37 of 44 Household and suburb life cycles Household life cycles The type of households that people live in and changing preferences over time affects the way in which a population changes. As people grow from children to adults and into old age, they change the type of households that they live in. The traditional path has been to start as a child in a family household, move into a group or lone person household as a youth, becoming a part of a couple relationship within 5-10 years. Rearing of children is followed by an ‘empty-nester’ period and ultimately being a lone person, as partners die. Understanding the changes that people make at different ages in their life, and the different types of housing they are likely to consume at those life stages is an important factor in forecasting future population and household types. The life stage which the majority of households in an area are going through gives an insight into its location in the suburb life-cycle (see below), and the likely life-path of those households in the future.
Suburb life cycles The dominant household types present in a suburb or town - where the majority of the populations sit in the household life path - dictate in part the role and function of the area. This is shown by its place in the "suburb life cycle".
Page 38 of 44 New areas are typically settled by young households (young couples and young families, perhaps some mature families). As the families grow and mature, household size increases. After initial rapid development, most households "age in place", with slowly shifting demand for services, facilities and dwelling types. As households age further and children begin to leave home, the average household size decreases, resulting in more empty nester (two person) households, often still living in large family homes. Family breakups can also result in single parent families and lone person households. If a suburb can't attract young families back to the area, it slowly becomes populated by older couples whose children have left home and older lone persons whose partners have died, resulting in declining population for some time. Alternatively, if a suburb is in a location close to economic drivers of change, it may be able to attract families to move back into the older dwellings in the area, increasing household size and population again. This will generally happen sooner, with less loss of services if the area has a diversity of housing options suiting a wide variety of household types. Empty nesters are likely to downsize into lower maintenance properties, freeing up larger format housing for families to move into, and continue the cycle again. The loop in the diagram represents the process of sustainability of an area, if it can attract families back into older housing in the area. Depending on the proximity of an area to work and education it may also attract young lone persons and group households. The attractiveness of an area to family groups, group and lone person households is shown in the migration assumptions section. Generally, more diverse communities are more sustainable in the long term, as they are able to maintain a range of services and facilities useful to all age groups. Certain policy responses can influence the suburb life cycle in different directions.
Page 39 of 44 Page 40 of 44 Page 41 of 44 Glossary Age specific propensities (birth and death) This relates to the modelling of births and deaths. At each year of age, there is a certain statistical likelihood of a person dying or giving birth. These age specific propensity rates are applied to the base and forecast population for each year of the forecast period. Ageing in place This refers to an existing resident population ageing in their current location, as distinct from other impacts on future population such as births, deaths and in and out migration. Average annual percentage change A calculation of the average change in total population for each individual year. Average household size The average number of persons resident in each occupied private dwelling. Calculated as the number of persons in occupied private dwellings divided by the number of occupied private dwellings. This excludes persons living in non- private dwellings, such as prisons, military bases, nursing homes etc. 'Bottom up' forecast Population forecast based on assumptions made at the local area level. Local drivers of change such as land stocks and local area migration form the basis. Broadhectare Land or Sites Broadhectare land refers to undeveloped land zoned for residential development on the fringe of the established metropolitan area. These areas are generally used for rural purposes until residential subdivision takes place. This type of land is also referred to as ‘greenfield’. Commencement The construction of a new dwelling (or beginning of). Dwelling A habitable residential building. Dwelling stock The supply of dwellings (either occupied or unoccupied) in a given geographic area. Empty nesters Parents whose children have left the family home to establish new households elsewhere. Estimated Resident Population (ERP) This is the estimate of the population based on their usual residence. The ERP at the time of the Census is calculated as the sum of the enumerated (counted) population plus persons temporarily absent less persons who are non- permanent (visitor) residents. An undercount of population by small area at Census time is also accounted for. The ERP used in these forecasts is then backdated to June 30. The ERP for forecast years are based on adding to the estimated population the components of natural increase and net migration.
Page 42 of 44 Forecast period In this report, the forecast period is from 2011 to 2036. Most data on the website has focused on the period from 2011 to 2036 plus 15. Household One or more persons living in a structural private dwelling. In-centre development Residential development based on increasing dwelling densities around suburb and town centres. Usually around existing transport nodes and service infrastructure, rather than developing previously undeveloped land on the urban fringe. 'Infill' development Residential development, usually of a relatively small scale, on redevelopment sites in established urban areas. This can take place on land previously used for another urban purpose such as industry or schools or on existing residential allotments where new dwellings are added. Also referred to as ‘intensification’ of existing areas. Mature families One and two parent families with older children, generally of secondary and tertiary school age. Migration The movement of people or households from one location to another. Natural increase The increase in population based on the births minus deaths, not including the impact of migration. Net household additions The overall increase in occupied dwellings, determined by the level of new dwelling construction that is permanently occupied, or conversion of non-permanently occupied dwellings to permanently occupied minus demolitions. Non-private dwellings These dwellings include persons resident in establishments such as prisons, student or nurses’ accommodation, nursing homes, boarding houses, military facilities, and hospitals. Occupancy rate The proportion of structural private dwellings that are occupied by a household. Occupied Private Dwellings (OPD) These are all Structural Private Dwellings (SPD’s) that are occupied by a household. Excluded are dwellings that were under construction, being demolished or where the house was temporarily vacant. Private dwellings Self-contained dwelling including houses (attached or detached), flats, townhouses etc. Retirement village units are also private dwellings as are houses or flats rented from the government. Redevelopment sites These are sites in already established areas not originally developed for residential uses, but identified for conversion to residential use. Examples include former school sites, quarries, derelict industrial land, former petrol stations and the like.
Page 43 of 44 Structural Private Dwellings (SPD) This is the stock of houses, flats, and other dwelling types. The SPD is the usual base stock from which commencements are added and demolitions deducted. 'Top down' forecast Population forecast based on assumptions made at the State and National level and allocated into smaller regions e.g. Local Government Areas, suburbs. Vacancy rate The proportion of structural private dwellings that are not occupied by a household. Young families One and two parent families with young children, generally of pre and primary school age.
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