City of Parramatta Population and household forecasts 2011 to 2036 population forecast Compiled and presented in forecast.id®. http://forecast.id.com.au/parramatta Table of contents About the forecast areas 3 Drivers of population change 6 Population summary 8 Components of population change 12 Population and age structure 15 Household types 18 Dwellings and development map 20 Population and age structure map 22 Household types map 24 Residential development 27 Net migration by age 28 Non-private dwellings 30 Births and deaths 32 About the forecasts 33 Factors of population change 35 Household and suburb life cycles 37 Glossary 42 Page 3 of 44 About the forecast areas Parramatta City is located in Sydney's western suburbs, about 24 kilometres from the Sydney GPO. Parramatta City is bounded by The Hills Shire and Hornsby Shire in the north, the City of Ryde in the east, and Cumberland Council in the south and the west. Important Population 2016 Population 2036 Change 2016-36 Statistics 236,272 397,339 68.17% Forecast areas City of Parramatta Legend City of Parramatta Overlay Small areas Source: Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id, the population experts, September 2016. Page 4 of 44 Page 5 of 44 Drivers of population change Development history Parramatta City is located in Sydney's western and north western suburbs. The City is a predominantly established, residential, commercial and institutional municipality with a diverse range of housing stock and residential neighbourhoods. In 2016, the City underwent a major change to its administrative boundaries, with the suburbs south of the Western (M4) Motorway being transferred to Cumberland Council (most of the suburb of Granville, and all parts of Guildford, South Granville and Merrylands). The City’s northern boundary was extended to the Hills (M2) Motorway, gaining areas formerly within the Hills Shire and the Shire of Hornsby (North Rocks, part of Beecroft and the parts of Northmead, North Parramatta, Epping and Carlingford that fell outside the old boundaries) as well as its southern boundary being extended east along the Western (M4) Motorway to encompass Silverwater, Newington, Wentworth Pont and Sydney Olympic Park (previously within the former City of Auburn)The Parramatta CBD area is one of the earliest areas of settlement in Australia and serves as the major commercial centre of western Sydney. The Parramatta Township was established in 1790, with development starting south of the Parramatta River, then progressing to the north. Growth was minimal until the 1850s, aided by the construction of the railway line. Expansion continued in the late 1800s, with Parramatta becoming a commercial centre for the western Sydney area. The City’s growth continued in the 1920s. The most significant development occurred during the post-war years, aided by industrial growth, immigration and the establishment of several public housing estates. The population boomed during the 1950s and 1960s. Growth has continued since the 1960s, although at a slower rate. The population continued to increase steadily from the early 1990s, rising from about 152,000 in 1991 to about 195,000 in 2011. Recent growth was due mainly to urban consolidation (medium and high density housing) in existing residential areas, and the redevelopment of former industrial areas in the south-eastern suburbs. The Sydney 2000 Olympic Games were the impetus for significant growth in the areas closest to Sydney, with redevelopment into sporting, recreation and entertainment venues, and the construction of medium and high density housing. Growth is expected to continue in the southern areas, aided by rezoning and the continued development of former industrial and government land. Additionally, there is likely to be continued development and intensification around the CBD, and Epping station, as well as the redevelopment of commercial property along Parramatta Road and Church Street Migration patterns In recent years, the City has played a range of housing roles specific to different suburbs. The most prominent role has been the attraction of young adults to the City from surrounding Local Government Areas. The City is attractive due to its access to employment, education and transport. The City has a broad economic base, with significant employment in office, institutional and industrial uses. The location of some of Sydney’s major hospitals is a significant source of local employment. While the City is an attractor of young adults, it loses young families with children to areas to the north and west. The supply of family style detached housing is not being expanded in the City while at the same time significant numbers of new detached houses are being constructed in The Hills Shire and Blacktown City. It is generally assumed that most of these broad patterns will continue into the future, most notably flows into the City from areas to the south and east, the loss of population to growing areas to the north, and the attraction of young adults. Page 6 of 44 Historical migration flows, City of Parramatta, 2006-2011 'Overseas' refers to arrivals only. Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, September 2016. Page 7 of 44 Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals only, based on answers to the census question “where did the person usually live 5-years ago. Housing role and function With the progressive residential development of the City, areas have developed different roles within the housing market. Many areas within the City tend to be attractive to established families, such as the north eastern suburbs of Beecroft, Carlingford, Epping and Eastwood as well as Winston Hills. Areas around central Parramatta (Parramatta CBD and Remainder, North Parramatta, Harris Park, Northmead, Rosehill and Westmead) are more strongly influenced by the inflow of younger people, as are suburbs such as Silverwater and Sydney Olympic Park. Wentworth Point differs slightly in that, despite being a high density area, it attracts some older adults, possibly downsizers from within the City and surrounding areas seeking apartments with water views. Some western areas such as Toongabbie and Pendle Hill, are likely to regenerate over the forecast period attracting some younger families. This variety of function and role of the small areas in the City means that population outcomes differ across the City. Housing supply There are also large differences in the supply of residential property within the City which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures over the forecast period. A number of significant new residential opportunities have been identified throughout the City. Parramatta CBD and remainder will continue to see redevelopment of land for high density mixed use purposes. Significant supply remains north of the M4, particularly remaining industrial sites in Wentworth Point, as well as commercial Granville-Clyde, and along large commercial sites in Granville, such as along Church Street, as well as Sydney Olympic Park and the yet to be developed Carter Street Precinct. Similarly, suburbs such as Ermington and Melrose Park, which have large industrial precincts are likely to see large scale redevelopment, along the lines of the AE2 site in Ermington and, finally, the industrial precinct of Camelia also presents significant potential with the prospective redevelopment of the James Hardie site. New dwellings in these areas range from major lower density redevelopment sites to multi storey apartment developments. It is assumed that these areas will continue to attract young adults in particular who are seeking accommodation close to employment markets and education facilities. Established residential areas such as Carlingford, Epping and Telopea are likely to have increased levels of medium and higher density dwellings following redevelopment of identified precincts around stations, along main roads (such as Pennant Hills Road) or as a result of a large scale public housing redevelopment. These are likely to diversify the existing housing types and provide more housing opportunities for young adults and potentially older downsizers. Other areas, such as Constitution Hill, Old Toongabbie, Beecroft, Oatlands, Newington, Silverwater and Winston Hills are expected to have relatively low numbers of additional dwelling stock over the forecast period, with any new dwellings being developed as a result of small-scale infill opportunity, with the redevelopment of existing housing to produce a small number of units or townhouses. Other resources Historical country of birth by small area (1991-2011) Previous residential location of current residents (2006-2011) Migration by location in and out of the LGA (2006-2011) Migration by age in and out of the LGA (2006-2011) Page 8 of 44 Population summary This table summarises the population for the City of Parramatta and each of its small areas. This enables you to see how population change is affecting different parts of the LGA in different ways. Some small areas may be rapidly growing whilst others are stable or even declining in population. Continue to the forecast results section to see detailed forecasts of population, households, and dwellings for each of the small areas. Please note that population numbers in forecast.id for the 2011 base year are derived from Estimated Resident Population from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. These differ from (and are usually higher than) Census counts as they factor in population missed by the Census and population overseas on Census night. They are generally considered a more accurate measure of population size than Census counts. Page 9 of 44 Population summary Change between 2011 City of Parramatta Forecast year and 2036 Avg.