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Future Generations And Future Generations and Interpersonal Compensations Moral Aspects of Energy Use by Gustaf Arrhenius and Krister Bykvist Acknowledgements Several people have helped us to write this essay. Our greatest debt is to Wlodek Rabinowicz, who has been an excellent supervisor of the project. He spent a lot of time and energy reading drafts of the essay. Without his painstaking criticism and helpful comments this essay would lack in precision, relevance, and logical correctness. Earlier drafts of the essay were discussed in Sven Danielsson and Wlodek Rabinowicz's seminar at the Department of Philosophy, University of Uppsala. The participants of the seminar contributed with helpful criticisms. Apart from Sven and Wlodek, we would like to thank Thomas Anderberg, Erik Carlson, Tomasz Pol, Peter Ryman, Rysiek Sliwinski, and Jan Österberg. We are especially grateful to Erik Carlson. His critical eye detected many flaws in earlier versions of our theory. A summary of this essay was presented in a seminar at Hässelby Castle, June 1994, organised by NUTEK (Näringsutvecklingsverket), where Bengt Hansson and Lars Ingelstam made interesting comments. Parts of Chapter 3 were presented at Australian National University, Canberra; Monash University, Melbourne; and Queensland University, Brisbane, February 1994. We would especially like to thank Peter Singer and Yew-Kwang Ng for their helpful suggestions. Parts of Chapter 4 were presented at University of Toronto, Department of Philosophy, Toronto, May 1994 and 1995, and at the Learned Society, Canadian Philosophical Association, Montreal, June 1995. We are especially grateful to Danny Goldstick, Tom Hurka, Andrew Latus, Howard Sobel and Wayne Sumner for their valuable comments. Bengt Bykvist, Rebecca Fodden, John Gibson, Wlodek Rabinowicz and Pura Sanchez checked and improved our English. Their advice has been of invaluable help to us. This essay was sponsored by NUTEK, as part of the research project "Future Generations and Interpersonal Compensations: Moral Aspects of Energy Use." We are very grateful to NUTEK for their generous assistance. Gustaf Arrhenius and Krister Bykvist Öland, August 1995. CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1) The Uranium Mining................................................................................................... 1 2) The Power Station ........................................................................................................ 1 3) The Energy Consumption of Present People ........................................................... 2 4) Different Energy Systems - Different People ........................................................... 2 5) The Overcrowded Earth.............................................................................................. 2 PRESUPPOSITIONS AND DEFINITIONS 1. The Concept of Welfare............................................................................................. 4 1.1. A Rational Reconstruction ............................................................. 4 1.2. The Interpretations and Structures of Welfare............................ 6 1.3. Mixed and Pure (Dis)Utility .......................................................... 8 1.4. Measurement ................................................................................... 9 1.5. Welfare Representations............................................................... 12 2. Axiological comparisons......................................................................................... 13 2.1. Value Concepts.............................................................................. 13 2.2. Compared States............................................................................ 13 2.3. What Kind of Examples are Relevant?....................................... 15 2.4. Welfarism ....................................................................................... 17 2.5. Normative Implications................................................................ 18 THE WEIGHT OF EVIL 1. Introduction............................................................................................................... 19 2. The Drawbacks of Total Utilitarianism................................................................. 21 3. Alternative Approaches.......................................................................................... 25 4. Strong Negativism.................................................................................................... 27 4.1. Popper............................................................................................. 28 4.2. Right to Eliminate?........................................................................ 29 4.3. Mixed Approach............................................................................ 30 Mixed disutilities............................................................................................................ 31 4.4. Level Negativism........................................................................... 32 4.5. The Weakness of All Strong Negativisms ................................. 34 5. Weak Negativism............................................................................. 35 5.1. Lexical Negativism........................................................................ 35 5.2. Weighted Negativism................................................................... 40 6. Aggregation............................................................................................................... 43 7. Conditions of Acceptability .................................................................................... 44 8. Our Proposal............................................................................................................. 46 8.1 Theory WUN..................................................................................... 46 8.2 WUN and the Conditions of Acceptability................................... 49 8.3 WUN's Drawbacks........................................................................... 55 MORAL DUTIES TO FUTURE GENERATIONS 1. Introduction............................................................................................................... 57 2. Social Discount Rates............................................................................................... 60 3. Representation and Specification of Alternatives................................................ 64 3.1. Schemes and Specifications.......................................................... 64 3.2. The Demarcation of a Population ............................................... 67 4. Linear Value Theories.............................................................................................. 69 4.1. The Repugnant and the Reversed Repugnant Conclusion ..... 69 4.2. Higher Goods, Lexical Orderings ............................................... 73 4.3. Mere Additions.............................................................................. 77 4.4. Summary Linear Theories............................................................ 80 5. The Person Affecting Restriction ........................................................................... 81 5.1. Make People Happy, Not Happy People .................................. 81 5.2. Narveson's Theory........................................................................ 82 5.3. Adam and Eve ............................................................................... 84 5.4. An Ambiguity................................................................................ 85 5.5. Pessimism Utilitarianism............................................................. 87 5.6. Parfit's Narrow and Wide Person Affecting Restrictions........ 88 5.7. The Asymmetry............................................................................. 88 6. Variable Value Principles........................................................................................ 90 6.1. Ng's Principle................................................................................. 91 6.2. Sider's Principle............................................................................. 94 6.3. Outline of a Possible Theory........................................................ 97 6.4. Anti Egalitarianism....................................................................... 99 6.5. Egyptology, Futurology and Astronomy................................. 101 6.6. The Relevant Population Concept ............................................ 103 SUMMARY AND ENERGY APPLICATIONS 1. Summary Chapter 3 "The Weight of Evil".......................................................... 106 2. Summary Chapter 4 "Moral Duties to Future Generations" ............................ 108 3. Our Theory.............................................................................................................. 111 4. Energy Applications...............................................................................................113 4.1. The Uranium Mining .................................................................. 113 4.2. The Power Station ....................................................................... 114 4.3. The Energy Consumption of Present People .......................... 115 4.4. Different Energy Systems - Different People .......................... 115 4.5. The Overcrowded Earth............................................................. 116 Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION The long sweep of human history has involved a continuing interaction between peoples' efforts to improve their
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