The Nuclear Dimension in China-India Relations
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
The London School of Economics and Political Science The Asymmetrical Threat Perceptions in China-lndia Relations after the 1998 Nuclear Tests Tien-Sze Fang A thesis submitted to the Department of International Relations and Superstition of the London School of Economics and Political Science for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, April 2010 UMI Number: U515991 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U515991 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 inescs F %Z(, ib y Tifsh ibraryof Poktca; u£fiaaamJ2£?.acj&__ Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without the prior written consent of the author. I warrant that this authorization does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. Abstract This thesis draws on evidence from interactions between China and India over the past few years to make an empirical case for the existence and impact of asymmetrical perceptions of threat between the two countries. The major issues of China-India relations, including the nuclear issue, the boundary problem, the Tibet issue, regional competition and cooperation, and China-India relations in the global context, are examined. The first aim of the thesis is to highlight the asymmetry of the threat perceptions between China and India and has explained the interactions of Sino-Indian relations. India tends to be deeply apprehensive of threats from China, while China appears comparatively unconcerned about threats from India. The second contention in this study is that Sino-Indian relations are constrained by the asymmetry between their threat perceptions. The asymmetry in perceptions of threat will result in a dilemma for India. India will try to reduce the sense of insecurity by adopting some countermeasures, such as developing nuclear weapons, allying with other countries, and undermining China’s influence. However, India is also very cautious and avoids angering China. On the contrary, China will be in favour of the status quo , and feel no urgent need to sort out the boundary disputes. The Chinese side has ignored the asymmetry and is in no mood to share India’s expectations and concerns. Thus, this thesis argues that this asymmetry has made it difficult for China and India to forge shared knowledge and to set a common agenda around which their expectations could converge. India will be on a perennial quest for changes in Sino-Indian relations, such as a final resolution of the border issue and securing more credible nuclear deterrent against China. The asymmetry in threat perceptions is seen as a destabilising factor in China-India relations. Acknowledgements This thesis is the result of a decade that I have devoted to the research regarding the relationship between India and China. Foremost, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisor, Prof. Christopher Hughes for his significant and helpful guidance and support of my Ph.D study and research. Without his guidance and inspiration, this thesis could not have been completed. I have been in Delhi since 2005, and had very good interactions with Indian academics. I would like to thank Dr. Alka Acharya, Dr. Srikanth Kondapalli, Dr. B. R. Deepak of Jawaharlal Nehru University, Dr. Jagannath Panda of Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, Dr. Jabin Jacob of Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, Dr. Rajeswari Rajagopolan, Mr. Deba Mohanty of Observer Research Foundation, and Dr. Raviprasad Narayanan of National Chengchi University, Taiwan, for their insights and comments. In addition, my sincere thanks also go to all the people who directly or indirectly helped me while I worked at the Prospect Foundation of Taiwan and the Taipei Cultural and Economic Center in Delhi (the de facto Taiwanese Embassy in India). I would also like to thank Solvig Topping for proofreading my thesis Last but not the least, my deepest gratitude goes to my family for their love and support. In particular, I am indebted to my late father, who shares my suffering and happiness in the heaven. Without the support of my family members, this paper would simply have been impossible. Table of Contents CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................6 1.1 R esea rch Qu e s t io n .............................................................................................................................................6 1.2 T he C hina T hreat w ith In d ia n C haracteristics .................................................................................11 1.3 T hreat Perception a s an A nalytical A p p r o a c h .................................................................................15 1.4 A symmetrical P erceptio n s of T hreat dm Ch in a -In d ia Re la tio n s ............................................... 19 1.5 Stru ctu re of the T h e sis ................................................................................................................................ 21 CHAPTER 2: THE NUCLEAR DIMENSION IN CHINA-INDIA RELATIONS ...........................24 2.1 N uclear D eterren ce dm Chin a -In d ia Relations befo re 1 9 9 8 ......................................................26 China’s Nuclear Strength and Posture .......................................................................................... 27 The Sino-Pakistani Nuclear Nexus ................................................................................................................... 30 2.2. India’s Pokhran II N uclear Tests ...........................................................................................................34 India!s Reasons for Conducting Pokhran II ...................................................................................................34 China’s Reactions to the Pokhran II Nuclear Tests ..................................................................................... 38 China s Adjusted Posture ....................................................................................................................................43 2.3 India ’s N u clear D o ctrin e and P o stu r e ..............................................................................................48 India s Nuclear Deterrent against China ....................................................................................................... 49 India s Nuclear Doctrine ..................................................................................................................................... 52 India s Nuclear and Missile Programme .........................................................................................................57 2.4. In d ia ’s Status as A N u clear W eapon St a t e ........................................................................................63 Great-Power Status and India s Nuclear Capability ...................................................................................63 India-US Nuclear Agreement .............................................................................................................................68 2.5 C o n c l u s io n ..........................................................................................................................................................74 CHAPTER 3: THE TIBET ISSUE IN SINO-INDIAN RELATIONS................................................ 77 3.1 In d ia ’s a n d C hina ’s T ibetan Q u e s t io n s ...................................................................................................80 China s “Liberation ” o f Tibet ............................................................................................................................83 India’s Peculiar Role in the Tibet issue ...........................................................................................................88 Tibet’s Significance to China ..............................................................................................................................95 3.2 R en ew ed Ch a l l e n g e s ..................................................................................................................................... 99 China-India Agreements on Tibet Issue ..........................................................................................................99 India s Nuclear Tests and Tibet Issue ..........................................................................................................103 The Karmapa Event