Diagramming the Complexities of Historical Processes from Ontology-Based Modeling to Diagrammatic Reasoning

Diagramming the Complexities of Historical Processes From Ontology-based Modeling to Diagrammatic Reasoning

History and Historiographies (Session LP-37) Friday 12th July, 2019 Overview

1 Introduction

2 Problem Statement and Objectives

3 Approach from Conceptualization towards Modeling

4 Experiments in Ontology-based Modeling and Diagrammatic Reasoning

5 Conclusion and Future Work Introduction In writing a history for the past we create a semiotic representation that encompasses reference to it, an explanation of it and a meaning for it. Munslow (2007) Narrative and History, p. 9 Semiotics as a Bridging Discipline

Figure 1: Triadic sign relations of a semiotic process (from Hoﬀmann 2001) Timelines – Tools or Toys?

Research Question for Information Visualization and Digital History How can information visualization toolsi. e. interactive timelinessupport historians in gaining new knowledge? Text vs. Diagrams Historians occasionally use timelines, but many seem to regard such signs merely as ways of visually summarizing results that are presumably better expressed in prose. Chal- lenging this language-centered view, I suggest that timelines might assist the generation of novel historical insights. Champagne (2016) “Diagrams of the Past: How Timelines Can Aid the Growth of Historical Knowledge” Figure 2: Parallel timelines with visual contextualization of historical events in the digital edition (Behrendt, Burch, and Weinmann 2010) of the Synchronoptische Weltgeschichte (Arno Peters and Anneliese Peters 1952) Problem Statement and Objectives Visual Historiography – Good Enough?I

Visual Contextualization via Information Integration? The strength of digital media is that one is able to represent the complexity of a historical subject, without having to ﬁll out the gaps, or having to choose between diﬀerent interpretations, but using an architecture that places the subject in its context(s) (Roegiers and Truyen (2008, p. 70) as cited by Sabharwal (2015, p. 57)) Visual Historiography – Good Enough?II

Figure 3: Timelines of national histories analyzed from Wikipedia editions (from Samoilenko et al. 2017) Explicit Modeling of Event Structure and Event Relations

• Digital history demands information visualizations beyond simple timelines (see for example Drucker and Nowviskie 2003). • Conceptualizing can be considered as modeling: “the more schematic the conceptualization in a discipline, the more its practitioners are likely to engage with models rather than concepts” (McCarty 2005, p. 25). • Historians construct concepts in order to understand historical events. • The method for this kind of explanation is known as colligation in philosophy of history: “the procedure of explaining an event by tracing its intrinsic relations to other events and locating it in its historical context” (Walsh (1951, p. 59) as cited in Shaw (2010, p. 11)). Requirements of Diagrammatic Thinking Tools for the Modeling Historian

Figure 4: Historical Thinking Concepts: http://historicalthinking.ca/historical-thinking-concepts Approach from Conceptualization towards Modeling Knowledge Modeling for Historical Understanding

Ontology-Based Historical Information System Ontology-Based Historical Information System

Trace chrono- logical relations

Trace relations Trace mereo- between events logical relations

Trace causal Historian Classify inter- relations connected events

Figure 5: Meeting the requirements of the modeling historian by supporting the method of colligation. Analogy between Synoptic Judgements of a Historian and the Medical Diagnoses of a Physician

The best analogy I can suggest for the way in which synoptic judgments are reached is that of a physician’s diagnosisa combination of broad medical knowledge, rel- evant evidence drawn from various tests, a knowledge of various theoretical possibilities for explanation, and skill in seeing which interpretation of the evidence works best in a particular casethe diﬀerence being, of course, that the physician deals primarily with law-bound physiological processes, the historian primarily with human conduct and pur- posive action. (Schroeder 1997, p. 69) Ontology Design Pattern for Multiperspectivity

Information Object Colligatory Concept

expresses deﬁnes Historical Narrative Historical Process Description

component

Parameter Thematic Role Colligatory Relation

valued by played by relates Relational Context satisﬁed by

setting Region Historical Agent Historical Event Situation

setting setting

Figure 6: Descriptions and Situations ODP adapted for the representation of different conceptualizations as conceived for example in divergent historical narratives. I do not think I reflect in words: I employ visual diagrams, firstly, because this way of thinking is my natural language of self-communion and secondly, I am convinced that it is the best system for the purpose. Charles S. Peirce (MS 619, 8) Speculative Modeling with Diagrams

Figure 7: This is Computer Science . . . (from Computer History Museum 2018, IBM Corporate Archive) Example from Literary StudiesI

Figure 8: Genealogical tree diagram (traditional form) to visualize stemmata (from Rizvi 2014) Example from Literary StudiesII

Figure 9: Swimlane diagram (new form) to better present the genealogy of material object and text (from Rizvi 2014) Experiments in Ontology-based Modeling and Diagrammatic Reasoning Modeling Causal Processes from Causal NarrativesI

Figure 10: Diagram of the Top-Level Theory of Social Revolution (from Goertz and Mahoney 2005): serves as “system of representation” (CP 4.418) or “system of diagrammatization” (NEM IV:318) to model and visualize speciﬁc revolutions Modeling Causal Processes from Causal NarrativesII

Figure 11: Diagram of the causal process which led to the French Revolution: model based on the reconstruction and visualization by Mahoney (1999, p. 1166) Combination of Macrosocial Structure and Idiographic Detail

Figure 12: Causal conjunction of the two basic processes (causes) leading to the the Russian Revolution of 1917 (summary text by Skocpol (1979)). Trajectory Graph from the CEWS Explorer

Figure 13: Diagram of the conflict phases in the Guatemalan Civil War (from Schmalberger and Alker 2001) Phenomenology could offer a philosophy of historicity, neither a philosophical account of history, nor of historiography – our knowledge of history and its limits – but of what it means to say that we are historical beings in the first place, or that we experience ourselves, others, and objects around us, as having an essentially historical dimension. Webermann (2009) “Phenomenology” Visual Grammar for Conflict Trajectories

Episode 1

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 6 Dispute Crisis Limited Violence Massive Violence Abatement Conflict Settlement

Episode 2

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 6 Dispute Crisis Limited Violence Massive Violence Abatement Conflict Settlement

Figure 14: Visual grammar for possible sequences of conﬂict phases (according to Schmalberger and Alker 2001) Trajectory Graph accordint to the Visual Grammar

Episode 1 Moldova-Transnistria

Phase 1 Phase 2 Claims for independence Language Act Declaration of ? Phase 5 and unification with independence by Stable situation Episode 2 Romania Transnistria Moldova-Transnistria August Coup Transformation Phase 2 Claims for independence Phase 3 Phase 5 Reclaim authority Intervention by Ukraine are refused by Russia Claims are renewed Use of Cease-fire but and sporadic violence paramilitary groups sporadic violence occurs

1987 1989 mid-late 1990 early 1991 August 1991 early 1992 March 1992

Figure 15: Diagram of the first two episodes of the Transnistria conflict (according to the narrative by Vorkunova 2001) (Nodes represent conflict phases and edges represent transitory events. Note that divergent perspectives on conflict episodes can be added via synchronoptic views.) Figure 16: Diagram for counterfactual exploration of possible decisions of the conflict parties and resulting outcomes of the Cuban crisis according to the game tree based counterfactual analysis by Joxe (1963) from Bertin (1967)) The Procedure of Diagrammatic Reasoning

Figure 17: Diagrammatic Deﬁnition of Diagrammatic Reasoning (from Hoﬀmann 2007) Knowledge Representation and Knowledge Organization

Figure 18: Modeling with the Transition ODP and classiﬁcation of the conﬂict phase types and the transitory event type with SKOS

Competency Questions from Pattern Documentation What states of some object are changed by what event during a transition? What is the process that is invariant through the transition? What transitions are occurring on what object at what time? Historical Explanation as Narrative Explanation

According to Danto (1985) a historical explanation has the following structure:

1 x is F at t1

2 H happens to x at t2

3 x is G at t3

• The explanandum of a historical explanation is the change of x. • The explanans is a historical event H. • Applying that to our research objects, that means:

• Conflict x is at time t1 in state F (phase) and conflict x is at time t3 in state G (phase). • A historical event H causes the transition of the conflict x into another conflict phase (escalation or de-escalation). So, what is explained is a change. Conclusion and Future Work Use Cases for the Modeling and Visualization Approach

1 Preparation and Communication of Research Results 2 Knowledge Representation and Knowledge Visualization for Public History 3 Generation of new Insights with Information Visualization Tools for Digital History Information Visualization Tools as ‘Knowledge Generator’

• So, it is not only about presenting research ﬁndings of historians, that have been obtained in a regular historiographic way (Knowledge Visualization) • It is about the diagrammatic (re)presentation of the already established knowledge in order to gain new knowledge (Information Visualization) • Peirce uses the label von Diagrammatic Reasoning, because his concern is the logical deductive reasoning and inference of new insights from already establisheddiagrammatically presentedknowledge.

Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Diagrammatic Reasoning

Figure 19: Fuzzy Cognitive Map of Macedonia Naming Dispute (after Tsadiras, Kouskouvelis, and Margarilis 2001) Soft Computing for the ‘Soft Sciences’

• Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping as method for Diagrammatic Thinking (thinking about relationens between causal concepts) • Application of Fuzzy Logic to grasp uncertain or vague knowledge in the humanities ( ungef¨ahre Exaktheit‘ (Thaller ’ 1984)) • Explanatory function of Cognitive Maps supports the reconstruction of the perspectives of historical agents and their reasons for acting (cf. Papageorgiou and Salmeron 2013) Outlook

Linearity was never an option for historical writing; hyper- textuality can make complex structure concrete, clear and responsive to both the author and reader. Bernstein (1999) “Hypertext and the linearity of history”

If neither the standard nor the simple patterns meets your needs, we think you will have to consider a solution that involves some philosophy. Garbacz and Trypuz (2017) “Representation of tensed relations in OWL: A survey of design patterns”

September 17–20, 2019 ACM HYPERTEXT 2019 September 23–25, 2019 JOWO 2019 (Joint Ontology Workshops): 1st International Workshop on Ontologies for Digital Humanities and their Social Analysis (WODHSA) The time of diagrammatic thinking is upon us. We need graphical interfaces for multidimensional and multimedia authoring that take advantage of computers’ abilities to aggregate, synthesize, and organize arguments along mul- tiple axes. Burdick et al. (2012) Digital_Humanities, p. 11 LiteraturI

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