Diagramming the Complexities of Historical Processes From Ontology-based Modeling to Diagrammatic Reasoning Ingo Frank [email protected] History and Historiographies (Session LP-37) Friday 12th July, 2019 Overview 1 Introduction 2 Problem Statement and Objectives 3 Approach from Conceptualization towards Modeling 4 Experiments in Ontology-based Modeling and Diagrammatic Reasoning 5 Conclusion and Future Work Introduction In writing a history for the past we create a semiotic repre- sentation that encompasses reference to it, an explanation of it and a meaning for it. Munslow (2007) Narrative and History, p. 9 Semiotics as a Bridging Discipline Figure 1: Triadic sign relations of a semiotic process (from Hoffmann 2001) Timelines – Tools or Toys? Research Question for Information Visualization and Digital History How can information visualization toolsi. e. interactive timelinessupport historians in gaining new knowledge? Text vs. Diagrams Historians occasionally use timelines, but many seem to regard such signs merely as ways of visually summarizing results that are presumably better expressed in prose. Chal- lenging this language-centered view, I suggest that time- lines might assist the generation of novel historical insights. Champagne (2016) “Diagrams of the Past: How Timelines Can Aid the Growth of Historical Knowledge” Figure 2: Parallel timelines with visual contextualization of historical events in the digital edition (Behrendt, Burch, and Weinmann 2010) of the Synchronoptische Weltgeschichte (Arno Peters and Anneliese Peters 1952) Problem Statement and Objectives Visual Historiography – Good Enough?I Visual Contextualization via Information Integration? The strength of digital media is that one is able to represent the complexity of a historical subject, without having to fill out the gaps, or having to choose between different interpretations, but using an architecture that places the subject in its context(s) (Roegiers and Truyen (2008, p. 70) as cited by Sabharwal (2015, p. 57)) Visual Historiography – Good Enough? II Figure 3: Timelines of national histories analyzed from Wikipedia editions (from Samoilenko et al. 2017) Explicit Modeling of Event Structure and Event Relations • Digital history demands information visualizations beyond simple timelines (see for example Drucker and Nowviskie 2003). • Conceptualizing can be considered as modeling: “the more schematic the conceptualization in a discipline, the more its practitioners are likely to engage with models rather than concepts” (McCarty 2005, p. 25). • Historians construct concepts in order to understand historical events. • The method for this kind of explanation is known as colligation in philosophy of history: “the procedure of explaining an event by tracing its intrinsic relations to other events and locating it in its historical context” (Walsh (1951, p. 59) as cited in Shaw (2010, p. 11)). Requirements of Diagrammatic Thinking Tools for the Modeling Historian Figure 4: Historical Thinking Concepts: http://historicalthinking.ca/historical-thinking-concepts Approach from Conceptualization towards Modeling Knowledge Modeling for Historical Understanding Ontology-Based Historical Information System Ontology-Based Historical Information System Trace chrono- logical relations Trace relations Trace mereo- between events logical relations Trace causal Historian Classify inter- relations connected events Figure 5: Meeting the requirements of the modeling historian by supporting the method of colligation. Analogy between Synoptic Judgements of a Historian and the Medical Diagnoses of a Physician The best analogy I can suggest for the way in which synoptic judgments are reached is that of a physician’s diagnosisa combination of broad medical knowledge, rel- evant evidence drawn from various tests, a knowledge of various theoretical possibilities for explanation, and skill in seeing which interpretation of the evidence works best in a particular casethe difference being, of course, that the physician deals primarily with law-bound physiological pro- cesses, the historian primarily with human conduct and pur- posive action. (Schroeder 1997, p. 69) Ontology Design Pattern for Multiperspectivity Information Object Colligatory Concept expresses defines Historical Narrative Historical Process Description component Parameter Thematic Role Colligatory Relation valued by played by relates Relational Context satisfied by setting Region Historical Agent Historical Event Situation setting setting Figure 6: Descriptions and Situations ODP adapted for the representation of different conceptualizations as conceived for example in divergent historical narratives. I do not think I reflect in words: I employ visual diagrams, firstly, because this way of thinking is my natural language of self-communion and secondly, I am convinced that it is the best system for the purpose. Charles S. Peirce (MS 619, 8) Speculative Modeling with Diagrams Figure 7: This is Computer Science . (from Computer History Museum 2018, IBM Corporate Archive) Example from Literary StudiesI Figure 8: Genealogical tree diagram (traditional form) to visualize stemmata (from Rizvi 2014) Example from Literary StudiesII Figure 9: Swimlane diagram (new form) to better present the genealogy of material object and text (from Rizvi 2014) Experiments in Ontology-based Modeling and Diagrammatic Reasoning Modeling Causal Processes from Causal NarrativesI Figure 10: Diagram of the Top-Level Theory of Social Revolution (from Goertz and Mahoney 2005): serves as “system of representation” (CP 4.418) or “system of diagrammatization” (NEM IV:318) to model and visualize specific revolutions Modeling Causal Processes from Causal NarrativesII Figure 11: Diagram of the causal process which led to the French Revolution: model based on the reconstruction and visualization by Mahoney (1999, p. 1166) Combination of Macrosocial Structure and Idiographic Detail Figure 12: Causal conjunction of the two basic processes (causes) leading to the the Russian Revolution of 1917 (summary text by Skocpol (1979)). Trajectory Graph from the CEWS Explorer Figure 13: Diagram of the conflict phases in the Guatemalan Civil War (from Schmalberger and Alker 2001) Phenomenology could offer a philosophy of historicity, nei- ther a philosophical account of history, nor of historiogra- phy – our knowledge of history and its limits – but of what it means to say that we are historical beings in the first place, or that we experience ourselves, others, and objects around us, as having an essentially historical dimension. Webermann (2009) “Phenomenology” Visual Grammar for Conflict Trajectories Episode 1 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 6 Dispute Crisis Limited Violence Massive Violence Abatement Conflict Settlement Episode 2 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 6 Dispute Crisis Limited Violence Massive Violence Abatement Conflict Settlement Figure 14: Visual grammar for possible sequences of conflict phases (according to Schmalberger and Alker 2001) Trajectory Graph accordint to the Visual Grammar Episode 1 Moldova-Transnistria Phase 1 Phase 2 Claims for independence Language Act Declaration of ? Phase 5 and unification with independence by Stable situation Episode 2 Romania Transnistria Moldova-Transnistria August Coup Transformation Phase 2 Claims for independence Phase 3 Phase 5 Reclaim authority Intervention by Ukraine are refused by Russia Claims are renewed Use of Cease-fire but and sporadic violence paramilitary groups sporadic violence occurs 1987 1989 mid-late 1990 early 1991 August 1991 early 1992 March 1992 Figure 15: Diagram of the first two episodes of the Transnistria conflict (according to the narrative by Vorkunova 2001) (Nodes represent conflict phases and edges represent transitory events. Note that divergent perspectives on conflict episodes can be added via synchronoptic views.) Figure 16: Diagram for counterfactual exploration of possible decisions of the conflict parties and resulting outcomes of the Cuban crisis according to the game tree based counterfactual analysis by Joxe (1963) from Bertin (1967)) The Procedure of Diagrammatic Reasoning Figure 17: Diagrammatic Definition of Diagrammatic Reasoning (from Hoffmann 2007) Knowledge Representation and Knowledge Organization Figure 18: Modeling with the Transition ODP and classification of the conflict phase types and the transitory event type with SKOS Competency Questions from Pattern Documentation What states of some object are changed by what event during a transition? What is the process that is invariant through the transition? What transitions are occurring on what object at what time? Historical Explanation as Narrative Explanation According to Danto (1985) a historical explanation has the following structure: 1 x is F at t1 2 H happens to x at t2 3 x is G at t3 • The explanandum of a historical explanation is the change of x. • The explanans is a historical event H. • Applying that to our research objects, that means: • Conflict x is at time t1 in state F (phase) and conflict x is at time t3 in state G (phase). • A historical event H causes the transition of the conflict x into another conflict phase (escalation or de-escalation). So, what is explained is a change. Conclusion and Future Work Use Cases for the Modeling and Visualization Approach 1 Preparation and Communication of Research Results 2 Knowledge Representation and Knowledge Visualization for Public History 3 Generation of new Insights with Information Visualization Tools for Digital History Information Visualization