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The UK Residential Development Market

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The UK Residential Development Market The UK residential development market: Are we building enough homes and what is the pipeline of land to put them on? Lucy Greenwood, Savills Residential Research 16th March 2016 Who is Housing Supply building the market new homes? What is affecting the Development Strategic land delivery of new land homes? Housing market The shape of price growth 5 Price and transaction volume recovery Source: Land Registry 150% London 140% 130% 120% South East 110% East England & Wales South West Pricepeak vs 100% West Midlands (region) East Midlands 90% Wales North West Yorks & Humber 80% North East 70% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% Transactions vs pre-crunch average Mid cycle reference point in the residential market? Source: Savills 4.0 12.0 3.5 10.5 3.0 Prime central 9.0 London to UK house price 2.5 7.5 London to UK to London 2.0 6.0 London to UK House Price 1.5 4.5 UK to London Central Prime 1.0 3.0 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 House prices and transactions Source: HMRC, Nationwide, Halifax, HM Land Registry (England and Wales) UK Transactions Nationwide Halifax Land Registry 120 2,000,000 1,800,000 100 1,600,000 1,400,000 80 1,200,000 60 1,000,000 800,000 40 600,000 Index (100=2007 Peak) (100=2007 Index 400,000 20 200,000 0 0 Number of Transactions in UK in Transactions of Number Mar-15 Mar-14 Mar-13 Mar-12 Mar-11 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-08 Mar-07 Mar-06 Sep-15 Sep-14 Sep-13 Sep-12 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-09 Sep-08 Sep-07 Sep-06 Price growth to spread out from London 5 Year house price inflation 2016-2020 Source: Savills forecasts for house price growth 5yrs 2016-2020. Published Nov 2015 Source: Savills, DCLG Savills, Source: Rental demand ishere to stay Proportion of housing in England 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0% 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 Private Rented Social Rented OwnerOccupied 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Spread of PRS, areas with more than 15% of households in Spread of PRS, areas with more than 15% of households in PRS PRS Source: Census 1991 2001 2011 Supply Source: Savills using DCLG DCLG using Savills Source: Additional homes per annum in Ongoing shortfallof supply England 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 50,000 0 Mar-06 Sep-06 TCPA HBF anddata, Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Permissions Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 TCPA Mar-11 need need projection ( Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Holmans Sep-13 Mar-14 ) Sep-14 Mar-15 Other Other starts Sep-15 starts New build Mar-16 Sep-16 Source: HMRC, DCLG HMRC, Source: been ata 10 to 1ratio over the last25 years Transactions and private housing starts in England have Annual transactions 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 500,000 0 1977 1978 1979 1981 Annual Transactions (lhs) 1982 1983 1984 1986 1987 1988 1989 1991 1992 1993 1994 Annual Private Housebuilding Starts (rhs) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Annual private housebuilding starts More than just housebuilding – conversions and change of use Source: DCLG 35,000 New build Net conversions 30,000 Net change of use Net other gains and losses 25,000 Demolitions Total net additional dwellings 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Net additionaldwellings 2014/15 -5,000 South East London South West East of North West West East Yorkshire North East England Midlands Midlands and The Humber Last years data on regional shortfalls Source: DCLG, HBF using Glenigan, TCPA Net additional dwellings Consents Housing need Shortfall (net additional vs need) 60,000 60% 52% 50,000 50% 40,000 40% 34% 32% 33% 30,000 30% 24% Shortfall 20,000 20% 17% 16% 10,000 10% 8% 5% Number of homes (year to Q1 2015) - 0% London South East East of South West Yorkshire East North North East England West Midlands Midlands West Who is building? Private sector have been building the majority of homes Source: DCLG, NB: This uses adjusted quarterly completions data to 2006, applies the proportions of private, RSL and LA from quarterly data and assumes all LA and RSL completions are affordable Unsupported market sale Supported sales (Help to Buy and New Buy) Implied affordable delivered by private sector Housing associations Local authorities 200,000 175,000 150,000 125,000 100,000 (England) 75,000 50,000 25,000 0 Number of new homes completed Year to March Larger housebuilders are building increasing proportions of new homes Source: NHBC 500+ units 101-500 units 1-100 units 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% New New homes registered 20% 10% 0% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 More than 50% of new homes from top 9 plc housebuilders Source: Housebuilder annual report, financial year Barratt Developments PLC Persimmon PLC Taylor Wimpey PLC Bellway PLC Redrow PLC Bovis Homes Group PLC Berkeley Group Holdings PLC Galliford Try PLC Crest Nicholson Holdings PLC 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Number of homes completed 10,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Constraints Shared Starter Homes Help to Buy ownership Direct Buy to Let Planning commissioning At least 57% of Local Planning Authorities lack a five year land Housebuilder constraints supply Source: HBF Q4 2015 Survey 65% 41% 32% 18% 15% Planning delays Labour Labour costs Land availability Land prices availability Development land market Wide variation in land market strength Source: Savills Land price versus '07/'08 peak -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 140 Oxford London 120 Sevenoaks 100 Cambridge 80 UK Greenfield Reading/Bracknell 60 Below peak UK Above peak 40 Index (100=2007 peak) (100=2007 Index UK Urban Milton Keynes 20 Rugby 0 Leeds Peterborough Land market competition most notable in the most constrained markets Source: Savills, HM Land Registry Strong markets with Strong markets Central London little land choice with more land 60% choice Existing Wealth Belts 50% Houseprice City and East of City 40% peakvs '07/'08 Reading/Bracknell Cambridge 30% Oxford Milton Keynes Brighton 20% Aberdeen Sevenoaks Luton Bristol Crawley Lincoln 10% Haywards Heath Solihull Land value vs '07/'08 peak 0% -70% Nottingham -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% -10% Leeds Wolverhampton Bradford Telford -20% Lagging markets with land choice -30% Development land ownership Source: Savills Development Database Housebuilder Other Developers Promoter and Investors Other Private Sector Public Registered Provider 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 Residential plots Residential 100,000 50,000 0 Outline Plans Outline Plans Reserved Matters Detailed Plans Reserved Matters Detailed Plans Submitted Granted Submitted Granted Granted Application process Detailed permission Listed housebuilders permissioned land banks growing at c.10% per annum Source: Housebuilder annual report, financial year Galliford Try Crest Nicholson Redrow Bovis Bellway Berkeley Barratt Taylor Wimpey Persimmon 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 permission 150,000 100,000 50,000 Number of with plotsfull planning 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ‘Margin discipline’ maintained Source: Thomson Reuters 30 20 10 0 -10 Barratt Bovis -20 Redrow items, % Taylor Wimpey -30 Persimmon Crest Nicholson -40 Bellway -50 Berkeley Operating Operating margin net of exceptional Average -60 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Strategic land market Strategic and development land ownership Source: Savills Development Database, at January 2016 Housebuilder Other Developers Promoter and Investors Other Private Sector Public Registered Provider 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 Residential plots Residential 200,000 100,000 0 Pre-Planning Outline Plans Outline Plans Reserved Matters Detailed Plans Reserved Matters Detailed Plans Submitted Granted Submitted Granted Granted Application process Detailed permission Top housebuilders are increasing their volume of strategic land and have been increasingly bringing their own land through the planning system Source: Housebuilder annual reports, financial year Berkeley Crest Nicholson Bellway Bovis Redrow Barratt Taylor Wimpey 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 permission 100,000 50,000 Number of without plots planningfull 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Outlook Housing need 2014 delivery Likely future delivery → → → → Households able to afford market homes → → homes housing homes Buy to Let? Market new new Market new Market Starter Homes Help to Buy: to Help Buy: Equity Loan Help to Buy: Equity Loan Equity Buy: to Help Shared Shared Household income Household ownership Shared ownership Shared Future sub-market Households in need rent funded through of sub-market Much reduced housing cross- Affordable rent delivery of sub- subsidy market rent funded by Social rent grant and Section 106 Buy to Let v First Time Buyers PRS is here to stay Source: Savills, CLG, CML (English Housing Survey) Estimated growth in PRS (EHS) Savills Estimate of Growth in PRS (UK) BTL lending for HP 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 Number of households of Number 100,000 50,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Savills, NHBC, housebuilder Scenarios for development land values annual reports Source: Savills SCENARIO 1 140 Supply of land constrained UK completions peak at Plc housebuilder 226,000 a year Other players pushed out of the 120 operating margin peaks at 9,859 NHBC market and fewer homes average 17.7% registered house delivered builders 100 80 Static land values 17,842 NHBC registered house SCENARIO 2 values 60 builders Plcs operating Increased supply of land in the margin close to highest demand areas (100= (100= 2007 peak) 40 target, averaging Lehman UK completions fall 16.5% Space for all players in the Brothers go to 137,000 homes land market and more homes 20 bust per year delivered UK greenfield development land Negative operating profit for plc housebuilders on average 0 What next? Macro Housing & planning policy • Interest rates lower for longer 1.
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