Global Instability and Strategic Crisis

Global Instability and Strategic Crisis This is a truly important book, one that should be read by policy makers in London and Washington and elsewhere throughout the world. Lucidly written by a distinguished British academic with a strong background in natural science and military technology as well as in the humanities, the text reviews remarkably comprehensively the world outlook and strategic thinking in the aftermath of 9/11. It is also rich in constructive policy proposals for the future. Professor Milton C.Cummings, Jr., Johns Hopkins University, USA Global Instability and Strategic Crisis brings new perspectives to current debates surrounding missile defence and argues that it should have a limited role only. Looking to the future, the author radically extends the customary remit of strategic studies in order to address the new world situation. This book explores the diverse factors—military, scientific, economic, social, ecological and cosmological—bearing upon the quest for stability and peace and anticipates future possibilities. The interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan are both discussed at some length while the Holy Land, Central Southern Africa, Indonesia, China and the Arctic are all seen as foci of special concern in their respective ways. Thematically, the text addresses a raft of topics, among them the redefinition of terror; lethal lasers; internalized arms control; the non- weaponization of space; Guantanamo Bay; regional security pacts; latter-day Marshall Plans; climate change; a ubiquitous urban crisis; instability latent in Western society; a two-tier European Union; and pre-emption doctrine. Salience is given to the military and civil exploitation of space; biowarfare is treated as a singularly serious mass destruction threat. This book will interest students and researchers of strategic studies, contemporary history and geophysics as well as policy-makers. Neville Brown is a Professorial Associate Fellow at Mansfield College, University of Oxford, where he has specialized mainly in historical climatology. From January 2001 to December 2003, he was also a Senior Fellow with the Defence Engineering Group at University College London. Routledge Advances in International Relations and Global Politics 1 Foreign Policy and Discourse Analysis France, Britain and Europe Henrik Larsen 2 Agency, Structure and International Politics From ontology to empirical enquiry Gil Friedman and Harvey Starr 3 The Political Economy of Regional Co-operation in the Middle East Ali Carkoglu, Mine Eder, Kemal Kirisci 4 Peace Maintenance The evolution of international political authority Jarat Chopra 5 International Relations and Historical Sociology Breaking down boundaries Stephen Hobden 6 Equivalence in Comparative Politics Edited by Jan W.van Deth 7 The Politics of Central Banks Robert Elgie and Helen Thompson 8 Politics and Globalisation Knowledge, ethics and agency Martin Shaw 9 History and International Relations Thomas W.Smith 10 Idealism and Realism in International Relations Robert M.A.Crawford 11 National and International Conflicts, 1945–1995 New empirical and theoretical approaches. Frank Pfetsch and Christoph Rohloff 12 Party Systems and Voter Alignments Revisited Edited by Lauri Karvonen and Stein Kuhnle 13 Ethics, Justice and International Relations Constructing an international community Peter Sutch iii 14 Capturing Globalization Edited by James H.Mittelman and Norani Othman 15 Uncertain Europe Building a new European security order? Edited by Martin A.Smith and Graham Timmins 16 Power, Postcolonialism and International Relations Reading race, gender and class Edited by Geeta Chowdhry and Sheila Nair 17 Constituting Human Rights Global civil society and the society of democratic states Mervyn Frost 18 US Economic Statecraft for Survival 1933–1991 Of sanctions, embargoes and economic warfare Alan P.Dobson 19 The EU and NATO Enlargement Richard McAllister and Roland Dannreuther 20 Spatializing International Politics Analysing activism on the internet Jayne Rodgers 21 Ethnonationalism in the Contemporary World Walker Connor and the study of Nationalism Edited by Daniele Conversi 22 Meaning and International Relations Edited by Peter Mandaville and Andrew Williams 23 Political Loyalty and the Nation-State Edited by Michael Waller and Andrew Linklater 24 Russian Foreign Policy and the CIS Theories, Debates and Actions Nicole J.Jackson 25 Asia and Europe Development and different dimensions of ASEM Yeo Lay Hwee 26 Global Instability and Strategic Crisis Neville Brown 27 Africa in International Politics External Involvement on the Continent Edited by Ian Taylor and Paul Williams Global Instability and Strategic Crisis Neville Brown LONDON AND NEW YORK First published 2004 by Routledge 11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge 29 West 35th Street, New York, NY 10001 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2005. “To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s collection of thousands of eBooks please go to www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk.” © 2004 Neville Brown All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Brown, Neville. Global instability and strategic crisis/Neville Brown. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Strategy. 2. War on Terrorism, 2001–3. Ballistic missile defenses. 4. World politics-21st century. I. Title. U162.B773 2004 355.02–dc22 2003022581 ISBN 0-203-69456-2 Master e-book ISBN ISBN 0-203-34576-2 (Adobe eReader Format) ISBN 0-415-30413-X (Print Edition) Contents The author viii Preface x Abbreviations xv PART I The strategic revolution 1 1 Through 11 September 2 A revolution unfolds, 1985–2001 2 Explosive excision 17 2 The poverty of strategy 31 3 A war on terror? 44 4 Saddam, slow decline and rapid fall 58 PART II Limited world war? 69 5 Social instability 70 Upheavals within? 70 Ultimate limits to growth 77 The Zen zone 88 6 Macabre lethality 96 Lethal gases and toxins 96 Martial microbes 99 Fissile ambiguity 107 Undercover nuclear attack 114 7 The ascent of the missile 117 vii PART III Defence against missiles 125 8 Ballistic encounter 126 A chequered progression 126 Rigour, the first victim? 143 9 Terrestrial coverage 149 Defence from the surface 149 The airborne laser 153 10 The heavens subverted? 156 Celestial awareness 156 Global engagement 162 Information through space 170 PART IV The quest for strategy 172 11 Pax Atlantica? 173 12 Arms in moderation 187 13 Planetary internationalism 207 14 Strategy transcended 232 Open conspiracy? 232 Celestial encounters 243 Appendix A: Geodesy and Geophysics 254 Appendix B: Exotic technologies 261 Further reading 268 Notes 270 Index 295 The author Since 1994 Neville Brown has been a senior member of Mansfield College, Oxford, mainly specializing in historical climatology. Between January 2001 and December 2003, he was also a Senior Fellow with the Defence Engineering Group at University College London (UCL). His career throughout has been based on an unusual interaction between the humanities and geophysics; and, especially of late, between strategic studies and global ecology. After grammar school majors in the physical sciences, he read economics with geography at UCL followed by modern history at New College, Oxford. For about half of the time he then spent as a forecasting officer in the meteorological branch of the Fleet Air Arm (1957–60), he specialized in regional upper air analysis. But other assignments included extensive experience on a coastal air station plus some in a gunnery trials cruiser. He was a field meteorologist on two British Schools Expeditions to sub-polar regions. In 1980, he was elected to a chair in International Security Affairs at the University of Birmingham. He has held Visiting Fellowships, or the equivalent, at the UK National Defence College, then at Latimer; the School of Physics and Astrophysics at the University of Leicester; the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London; the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute; and the Australian National University, Canberra. From 1965 to 1972 he worked part-time but quite proactively as a defence correspondent in the Middle East and South-East Asia, successively accredited to several leading Western journals. From 1981 to 1986, Professor Brown was the first Chairman of the Council for Arms Control, a British all-party body drawn from parliament and other professions and dedicated to a multilateral approach to arms control and disarmament. He thus became involved in the multinational debate about Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD). In 1985 and again in 1987 he paid extended visits to the Strategic Defence Initiative Organization (SDIO) in the Pentagon. The first was at the invitation of Allan Mense, then Acting Chief Scientist; and the second as the guest of O’Dean Judd as Chief Scientist. From April 1994 to the summer of 1997, he was attached to the Directorate of Sensors and Electronic Systems (within the Procurement Executive, UK Ministry of Defence) as

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