30 September 2017

DAILY SUMMARY – 30 SEPTEMBER 2017 1. IS drones downed northwest of Mosul 2. Hawija operations continue with rapid progress noted southwest of Hawija City 3. IS launch limited suicide attacks behind frontline areas in Salah ad Din 4. Airstrikes support clearance operations southwest of Hamrin Lake in Diyala 5. Interdicted significant indirect fire attack reportedly staged north of Baghdad 6. Security operation in Karbala as Ashura events gain momentum Iraq Wide: On 30 September, Iranian officials with the Road and Land Transport Organization announced a ban on petroleum product shipments to and from the KR-I, warning transport companies to comply with the order beginning immediately. Meanwhile, Iranian state television announced plans for joint military exercises with Iraqi counterparts, slated to take place over the coming days along northwestern Iranian borders. Iraqi officials stated that Iraqi troops in Iran and Turkey would begin to enforce control over border crossings into and out of the Kurdish Region beginning on Saturday, though implementation has yet to be confirmed. Turkish and Iranian officials noted that Iraqi elements are positioned at border crossing points, with plans for customs collection points to be constructed over the near term. Other traffic is to be permitted to pass as normal through Turkish border crossings. While these announcements reinforce Iranian and Turkish decisions to side with Baghdad over the KR- I referendum, there is no suggestion that military exercises or Iraqi border security will result in incursions into KR-I territory. On 29 September KR-I Transport Ministry officials issued a letter to Baghdad asking for “open negotiations” on international flights which remain halted to and from Kurdish Regional airports, though a reply to the request from Baghdad has yet to be reported. Rumors continue to circulate regarding the potential for further isolation and retaliatory measures in response to the Kurdish independence vote, though it remains important to stress that such measures which have been seen comprise calculated responses. Extremes such as a substantial military incursion, significant violence or interference with vital KR-I infrastructure such as internet or phone service, remain extremely unlikely scenarios. Northern Region: Turkish military forces continued to maintain pressure along PKK support zones along the borders of the KR-I, with additional Turkish airstrikes conducted in northern Erbil on 29 September. While Turkish airstrikes have continued since the 25 September referendum vote, strikes have remained in line with established patterns despite rhetoric from Turkish officials threatening more significant military action. This comparatively low-impact targeting is expected to continue, with the potential for a statement-level attack against PKK positions should tensions continue to escalate over the independence vote. In Nineveh, Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) shot down an IS drone in Badush northwest of Mosul, and two more near the Syrian border northwest of Ba’aj. One of the latter drones reportedly carried explosives, while the second is believed to have been carrying out reconnaissance activities. In Mosul reporting is assessed to reflect a false representation of actual numbers of events. On 29 September, an IED detonated in a local marketplace against civilians and security forces in Hayy Thawra, reportedly killing four individuals including a police officer. While operations against IS elements have shifted focus to Hawija, limited IS offensive efforts and residual threats such as remaining IED emplacements continue to prove a significant consideration for humanitarian operations and security forces. On 29 September US officials announced confirmation of an additional 50 civilians killed by US coalition air or artillery strikes in Iraq and Syria, raising the total number of confirmed civilians killed by the coalition since August of 2014 to 735. The most recent fatalities took place on 14 July in Mosul when 10 civilians were killed in an strike on an IS tunnel system. CONFIDENTIAL – FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY Page 2 of 5 Hawija Operations: Hawija operations continued over the review period as Hashd al-Shaabi elements remained vocal regarding operational advances, claiming responsibility for rapid gains along frontline areas. Numerous minor population centers were seized with limited resistance, as casualties amongst security personnel continue to be largely withheld. If reported gains prove accurate this period, security forces have now reached to within 10km of Hawija itself. In response, IS launched limited attacks behind frontlines in Salah ad Din, forming an ongoing consideration for humanitarian and security personnel operating within these areas. A suicide bomber was killed by Eastern Shirqat Police elements during a failed attempt to target a police station in Asidira Ulia. In a more successful strike on 29 September, IS elements targeted ISF positions with a suicide vehicle borne IED in the Musahhak Village of the Baiji district, resulting in an unidentified number of casualties. Coalition support of Hawija operations remains essential, as reflected by belated reporting of two Coalition strikes on 28 September near Hawija which engaged two IS tactical units and destroyed 29 vehicles, seven fighting positions, two tunnel entrances, two weapons caches, a command and control node, a staging area, a medium machine gun, a headquarters, and an IS-held building. The destruction of such a considerable number of vehicles again highlights efforts to mitigate IS use of vehicle borne IEDs throughout this stage of operation. The main effort of advance continued west of Abbasi, as the Zarga front to the south remained active as a supporting effort. On 29 September near Tuz Khurmatu, two Coalition strikes engaged two IS tactical units and destroyed a tactical vehicle, a heavy machine gun, and a fighting position. Joint security forces conducted additional advances in the Hamrin Mountains and Alas areas. Reports that the Hamrin Mountains are secure can assessed as premature though access routes leading into the mountains continue to be cleared and Federal Police claimed as much as 90 square kilometers have been reclaimed. Central: On 30 September, Baghdad operations Command announced the interdiction of an attempt to launch 10 rockets towards the Shula area of al-Hurriya in northwest Baghdad. The rocket launch pads were reportedly found staged in the Tawawil area north of the city in Tarmiyah, with the rockets aiming towards Shula. The interdiction was reported by official sources, and while limited details were noted and no arrests were made, the find may well have comprised the planned targeting of Ashura processions in this Shi’a enclave of the capital. Within the Baghdad Belt operations remained ongoing to find and clear explosive materials. Security forces announced the find of over 30 explosive devices north and west of the capital as part of likely optimistic reporting. No attack events were reported in the city over the review period, likely as a result of increased security measures in place for Ashura events. Two IED detonations resulted in an unidentified number of casualties north and southeast of the city. In Anbar activity remained relatively subdued though Coalition strikes on 28 and 29 September struck IS assets in al-Asad and al-Qaim. In Fallujah, a remnant IED detonated against civilians, killing four in the blast. Such events are undoubtedly more common than reporting would suggest, with thousands CONFIDENTIAL – FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY Page 3 of 5 of uncleared devices remaining in populated areas of the city. On 30 September, a press source reported joint security forces conducted search and raid operations in the areas of Nasaf and Hisi in Fallujah, arresting as many as 30 individuals on various charges, though no further details were discussed. South: In Karbala Ashura processions gained momentum on 30 September, culminating in the most elaborate displays of the commemoration period. Traffic into and out of the city was halted as a precautionary measure to mitigate against would-be IS attacks and to prevent additional congestion along city streets. No significant targeting in relation to these events has been noted as of the time of writing. In the aftermath of Ashura, the potential for IS attacks remains elevated as IS may seek to exploit vulnerabilities while security forces stand down heightened states of alert across the southern provinces. On 30 September, Karbala Police Command announced joint forces of al-Furat Operations Command and Karbala Police, conducted a largescale military operation in the desert areas of Farisiyah, Fadiliyah and Imamiya, in the north of the province. The 3rd Karbala Police Emergency Battalion reportedly discovered a cache of 160 remnant artillery and mortar shells as part of these operations. Also in Karbala on 30 September, dozens of al-Jair neighborhood residents conducted a demonstration to protest the lack of services, with some threatening to conduct their own referendum should their demands fail to be heard. Interestingly in Muthanna, Ashura processions also turned into “stages” for protests to demand services and an end to corruption. There were a number of murders reported in the south as a result of domestic disputes. In Diwaniyah on 30 September, a joint force of Diwaniyah Police arrested two individuals accused of kidnaping, raping, killing and dumping the body of an 8-year-old in the Hamza district, due to personal

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