10 Strategic Vision vol. 9, no. 47 (September, 2020) Red Planet Ambitions Tonio Savina ! "# $%&', China launched its (rst Mars two major phases. +e (rst was from the )-,*s to the exploration mission, Tianwen-), which is )-.*s and basically coincided with the Space Race be- Oexpected to land on the Red Planet’s surface tween the United States and the Soviet Union. Despite in the (rst quarter of "*"). +e launch did not come numerous failures experienced by the two superpow- as a surprise: it was part of China’s step-by-step strat- ers, this phase saw the (rst US spacecra/ perform a egy to accumulate capabilities in outer space and was 0yby of Mars (Mariner-1), the (rst Russian probe to announced as far back as "*),. Most of the analysis successfully carry out a so/ landing on its surface conducted on Tianwen-) focused on the technologi- (Mars #), and the (rst US probe to orbit the planet cal and scienti(c aspects of the mission, while far too (Mariner -). It also includes the )-.2 launch of the little attention has been paid to the political signi(- lander Viking ): the (rst US probe to take a color im- cance of the launch and to the strategic rationale of age of the red Martian surface. such a risky program. China did not participate in this (rst phase of +e history of Mars exploration can be divided into Mars exploration; however, this does not imply that photo: NASA/JPL-Caltech Mars Ascent Vehicle deploying a sample container in orbit (Artist’s Concept). Tonio Savina is a PhD student from the Italian Institute of Oriental Studies at Sapienza University of Rome. He can be reached at tonio.savina@uniroma!.it Red Flag on Mars 11 photo: China Ministry of National Defense The launch pad at China’s Xichang satellite launch center stands illuminated at night. Chinese scientists were totally uninterested in the Surveyor, initiating a new era for exploration of the Red Planet. On the contrary, there is some evidence Red Planet. Furthermore, only one year later, the that they were already involved in studying Mars, United States deployed the (rst rover (Sojourner) while taking a close look at foreign experience with to the planet. the planet’s exploration. A paper published in )-,) by It was during this phase that the Chinese scienti(c Yi Zhaohua and Huang Tianyi calculated the mini- community began to seriously study the feasibility of mum time needed by a spaceship to reach Mars, a Mars mission. As revealed in the summer of "**# by while in November )-., the Chinese journal Foreign Liu Zhenxing, a researcher with the China Academy Trends in Space carried out a detailed analysis of the of Science, a voyage to Mars began to be part of the US Viking program in its Special Issue on the Mars Chinese planetary exploration ambitions from the Exploration of the Viking Space Vehicle. early )--*s. A mission to the Red Planet was con- ceived under the 3,# plan—a scienti(c program that, New era for exploration according to the o4cial narrative, was started in )-3, under the endorsement of Deng Xiaoping, but whose A/er several years of deadlock, the second phase history should more properly be re-written in a less of Mars exploration began in the second half of the propagandistic way, according to Julian Gewirtz. )--*s, evolving through the "***s. +e Soviet Union By the )--*s, however, China had not even launched had already collapsed, and this new phase was domi- its (rst man in space, and it lacked high-power data nated by NASA’s Mars Exploration Program. Indeed, transmission and communications systems to cover while in )--, Russia’s most ambitious interplanetary the large distances between Mars and Earth. Indeed, probe (Mars -,) failed to launch, NASA succeeded it was only in the "***s that China could participate in sending alo/ its robotic spacecra/ Mars Global more actively in Mars exploration. At that time, the 12 STRATEGIC VISION photo: Erica Bechard An MH-60S Sea Hawk delivers supplies to USS Ronald Reagan while taking part in Valiant Shield 2020. Russian space agency Roscosmos was working on of Yinghuo-) was merely a failure for China’s Mars its Phobos-Grunt spacecra/, which was intended program. On the contrary, the incident was only a to land on the Martian Moon Phobos and to collect training exercise for the Chinese planetary explora- samples. +is provided China with the (rst conve- tion ambitions. +erefore, a/er the failure, China’s nient opportunity to send a probe to Mars. interest in a Mars program rapidly increased. A new Since Beijing had been invited by Russia to join this proposal was presented to the Chinese government mission, the two countries signed an agreement on for a "*)2 mission, but it did not get approval and it ", March, "**., stating that China would develop a was eventually dismissed. small satellite—the Yinghuo-)—to be launched with the main Russian probe Phobos-Grunt. What was Renewed enthusiasm implicit in the agreement was that China would con- tribute economically to the Russian mission while +ere was renewed enthusiasm for the project at the same time it would take advantage of Russia’s when, during the International Planetarium Society experience in deep space exploration. Conference held in Beijing in July "*)1, geologist and In "**-, Yinghuo-) was moved to Moscow, but since cosmochemist Ouyang Ziyuan, the founding father the tests needed to assure the spacecra/’s safety could of China’s lunar program, announced that China was not be completed in time, Russia decided to postpone working on a Mars mission. At that time, the (nal the mission until November "*)). Despite this, on funding decisions had not yet been made. Indeed, launch day, two booster engines of the spacecra/ the mission was not formally approved until "*),, failed to ignite, and the Russian probe was lost. A/er as con(rmed by the "*), White Paper on China’s a month of orbital decay, Yinguo-) burned up in the Space Activities, which described China’s intention atmosphere. to “execute its (rst Mars exploration operation, and As the Australian space analyst Morris Jones wrote […] to launch the (rst Mars probe by "*"* to carry in Solar Daily, it would be naïve to think that the loss out orbiting and roving exploration.” Red Flag on Mars 13 Reaching Mars is very di4cult. Long-term expo- reason: a Mars mission would have a lot of economic sure to radiation, the presence of a toxic soil, and advantages and, like the Apollo program did for the a substantial communication delay between Mars United States and the Chang’e program did for China, and the Earth are only some of the problems a Mars it could provide the country with several spin-o5 ap- mission would have to contend with. Going to Mars plications, such as advancements in remote-sensing also requires an enormous amount of resources: an technologies. investment that would be unlikely to provide any ob- servable bene(ts in the short term at best, and may, “China could use a Martian mission if the mission fails, end in a public-relations disaster. to enhance its national prestige and Considering this risk, one might well wonder what present itself as a leader in space the strategic rationale is for the Chinese Communist exploration.” Party (CCP) to commit the country to a risky voyage to the Red Planet. +ird, Mars has always been fascinating, in that it In his book Mission Mars: India’s Quest for the Red has a particular attraction for humans and, above all, Planet, Ajey Lele points out that a State has (ve main is the major space challenge in the decades to come. reasons for seeking to reach Mars. First, as with every Furthermore, it could boost studies in space-related space mission, such a journey represents a formidable technologies and planetary science. CCP leaders are technological challenge, and would encourage indus- aware of the need to mold the younger generation try to develop new technologies that could serve as who will be the astronauts, engineers, and scientists a driver of innovation. In this sense, a trip to Mars that will serve the country in the future. To this end, could strengthen the Chinese path of innovation. in "*)3, China opened a Mars simulation base in the Lele, who is a space expert at the Institute of Defense vermilion sands of the Gobi Desert, as part of the so- Studies and Analyses in New Delhi, o5ers a second called Space C Plan: a project to inspire and motivate photo: NASA/JPL-Caltech In this illustration, NASA’s Mars 2020 rover uses its drill to core a rock sample on Mars. 14 STRATEGIC VISION photo: Jan David De Luna Mercado A P-8A Poseidon lands at Misawa Air Base after a maritime patrol and reconnaissance mission. young generations of potential engineers. It is impor- mentation and tracking. tant to note that the goal of inspiring new generations Despite this cooperative image, it is important to is strictly linked with the fourth reason for a State to evaluate the Tianwen-) mission from a competitive go to Mars as enumerated by Lele, that of national perspective, too. +is is not true for the two missions pride. Such a mission would build up citizens’ sense titled Hope and Perseverance, respectively launched of belonging to a great nation, and would enhance by the United Arab Emirates and the United States their loyalty to the Communist Party. during the same launch window of Tianwen-). +e timing has been interpreted as re0ecting the emer- “The new Chinese mission to Mars gence of a new Space Race, but a more scienti(c should also be evaluated in relation reason is that the timing was determined by orbital patterns.