Worst-Case Scenario Offers Bright Outlook for Post-Pandemic UK
INVESTMENTINSPIRING & INFORMING INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS FOR 25 YEARS investmentweek.co.uk WEEK 3 May 2021 Worst-case scenario off ers bright outlook for post-pandemic UK dividends BY JAMES BAXTER-DERRINGTON strong dividend growth in the UK dividends full year basis (inc. special dividends) coming years.” Investors are anticipating the return of bumper special 130 Impact of special dividends dividends and payouts from £bn Many other sectors are set to pay the banking sector amid an 110 better than expected dividends improving outlook for income in for the coming year, with media, 90 the UK equities market. insurance, telecoms, building The worst-case scenario for 70 materials, utilities and mining the UK dividend market in 2021 all exceeding Link Group’s initial now sees payouts rising by at 50 predictions. Mining payouts are least 0.9% this year, with the looking particularly strong with best-case envisioning a rise of 30 commodity prices driven higher 5.6%, according to the latest Link 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 by the global economic recovery Group UK Dividend Monitor. best case worst case and the big miners utilising Only last quarter, Link was still special dividends to “pass on anticipating a decline of 0.6% in declaring dividends in line with Q2 will see HSBC distribute bumper profits”. the worst case, but with plenty our best-case scenario as the roughly £2.2bn to investors, more BHP Group shelled out of companies paying best-case economy comes back to life and than twice as much as all the enough in Q1 to rank as the third predictions over the first quarter, constraints on payouts are lifted,” other banks combined, and from largest payer, while Rio Tinto is the gap has narrowed between said Ian Stokes, managing director 2022 the global banking giant will anticipating distributing close to the top and bottom forecasts.
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