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European Air-Taxis EUROPEAN AIR-TAXIS An economic feasibility analysis in the use of Very Light Jets (VLJs) 0 © Durasee Services 2014 Page 0 www.durasee.com Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary.............................................................................................................. 3 2 Part 1: Introduction............................................................................................................... 4 2.1 Abstract ............................................................................................................................ 4 2.2 Problem Statement ........................................................................................................... 5 2.3 Background and Context .................................................................................................. 5 2.4 Focus and Objectives ....................................................................................................... 7 2.5 Study Scope ..................................................................................................................... 8 2.6 Data Sources and Analysis ............................................................................................... 9 3 Part 2: Value Proposition and Strategy ............................................................................ 11 3.1 Innovation in Operations ................................................................................................. 11 3.2 Innovation in Service Offering ......................................................................................... 12 3.3 Strategic Analysis ........................................................................................................... 14 4 Part 3: Market Environment Analysis ............................................................................... 15 4.2 Consumer Demand ......................................................................................................... 16 4.3 Competitive Environment ................................................................................................ 19 4.4 Service Environment ....................................................................................................... 21 4.5 Legal Environment .......................................................................................................... 22 4.6 Operating Environment ................................................................................................... 24 5 Part 4: Operational Model .................................................................................................. 27 5.1 Market Approach ............................................................................................................ 27 5.2 Advertising strategy ........................................................................................................ 28 5.3 Service Models ............................................................................................................... 29 5.4 Owner Operator Models ................................................................................................. 31 5.5 Implementation Models ................................................................................................... 34 6 Part 5: Case Study Examples ............................................................................................ 37 6.1 Case 1: Peak Ad-hoc ...................................................................................................... 37 6.2 Case 2: Fixed Schedule .................................................................................................. 37 6.3 Case 3: Flexible Schedule .............................................................................................. 37 7 Part 6: Conclusion and Feasibility .................................................................................... 38 7.1 Target Market and Pricing .............................................................................................. 38 7.2 Ownership and Running Cost ......................................................................................... 39 7.3 Profitability and Operations ............................................................................................. 39 © Durasee Services Limited 2014 1 8 Recommendation................................................................................................................ 40 9 Future Work ........................................................................................................................ 41 10 References ........................................................................................................................ 42 10.1 Books and Articles ........................................................................................................ 42 10.2 Web sites ...................................................................................................................... 43 11 Appendix ........................................................................................................................... 44 © Durasee Services Limited 2014 2 1 Executive Summary The key findings are that providing a European air taxi service is feasible, given the following conditions and considerations: 1. The choice of a VLJ able to fly under 60 gallons an hour is key to cost-effectiveness. If the average one-way price per km is at least 0.64 euro, then it is possible to breakeven. 2. Choices of routes should centre on Nice, and the Swiss region, to Corsica, and Mediterranean to target a market with high traffic density, growth, and cost per KM. 3. Entering the market to capture around 10% requires at least three aircraft with an investment of 7.5 Million Euro with estimated pay back in approximately 8 years. 4. The Eclipse 550 is controversial as the company re-started in September 2013. However, the launch of the Honda Jet HA-420 promises to be more efficient and reliable due to the lower fuel costs per hour, it could prove a lower cost per seat/km. 5. Timing is key now, taking the target market growth, there is still good indications that 2016 is likely to be the right time to enter the market. 6. Utility-based on demand models for air transport are feasible, and new more highly efficient light aircraft create new possibilities for the Air-Taxi market 7. Innovation can be provided with the Hop On Hop Off service, if operated in a one-way, one leg at a time only, using a price per seat model. This requires combined with fractional ownership, and technology for easy of booking and scheduling. 8. Fractional ownership is a risk sharing strategy, but a time-sharing rather than profit- sharing approach is initially required. © Durasee Services Limited 2014 3 2 Part 1: Introduction 2.1 Abstract Today there is a high-density airport infrastructure in Europe, with increasing concentration and over reliance on major hub airports. Yet there remains under-utilisation in many secondary airports and aerodromes, as well as unsatisfied demand on many routes between major European cities*. Therefore, if there is air transport carriers to serve this demand such secondary airport can offer the required infrastructure. Given the configuration and capacity of aircraft currently in operation by the major Airline carriers in Europe, the use of Very Light Jets (VLJ) could provide a number of advantages over the existing aircraft and services. There are two important factors to consider in this study, firstly VLJs can land and take-off faster, increasing turnaround times. Secondly, VLJs can operate on much smaller under-utilised aerodromes, as well as traditional airports. This level of flexibility VLJs have over larger aircraft configurations could prove wider use is in fact feasible, if a number of criteria allowing for commercial viability are identified are met. As part of this study, the intention is to identify and analyse criteria for VLJ use. As well, assess conditions will determine the feasibility for use of VLJs over larger aircraft for use in Air-Taxi Shuttle Services. Primarily, the study aims determine the feasibility of the business model to provide services with route topologies such as ring routes and lines, similar to existing transport services, such as trains and buses. Secondly, this study will assess the demand and commercially viable of such service between one or more European city pairs. Lastly, this study aims to investigate the VLJ market to identify the optimum size and capacity of aircraft required for such services. *According to current European Commission Directorate General for Transport, Eurocontrol and Eurostat publically available reports, [4], [5], [6], [7], [8], [2], [9]. © Durasee Services Limited 2014 4 2.2 Problem Statement The key challenge faced by introducing any new airline service in the market is to answer the question of what value is created for the passenger. If innovation can create value for the passenger, then what type of innovation is required in the airline industry, and where should it be utilised in the service? Here the aspect of innovation that will be studied is the introduction of the concept for “Hop-On and Hop-Off” circular “ring” routes as a new service model in the European Air-taxi market. This study will compare both the route and the VLJ aircraft used to measure feasibility and efficiency compared to traditional network carriers, in terms of the key metric: ticket price and cost per seat kilometre. Such innovation in aircraft and route
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