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Result Update | Bandhan Bank

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Result Update | Bandhan Bank Bandhan Bank (BANBAN) CMP: | 297 Target: | 330 (11%) Target Period: 12 months HOLD May 9, 2021 Near term uncertainty persists… Bandhan Bank posted weak results on the operating front with elevated provisioning hurting profitability. Asset quality performance and developments in key states like Assam and West Bengal would call for a cautious approach in the near term. Collection efficiency (including write-off) saw improvement from 92% to Particulars 95% QoQ in the micro banking segment. Key state of Bengal saw collections rise from 90% to 95% QoQ but in Assam collection efficiency dipped from Particulars Values 88% to 83%. As per management commentary, collections in April 2021 Market Capitalisation | 47835 crore Update Result declined ~3-4% from the March level. Networth | 17408 crore Asset quality on a reported basis saw a spike as GNPA ratio jumped from 52 week H/L (|) 430 / 195 1.18% to 6.81% QoQ due to removal of standstill norms. On a proforma Face Value (|) 10.0 basis, asset quality appears to have improved from GNPA proforma level of DII Holding (%) 1.9 7.12% in the previous quarter but this was led by accelerated write-off worth FII Holding (%) 34.9 | 1930 crore during the quarter. Total restructuring was at | 617 crore i.e. 0.71% of its loans. The bank holds additional provisions of | 388 crore Key Highlights against standard micro banking portfolio. Reported GNPA spikes to 6.8% from The bank has made additional provisions to the tune of | 1000 crore during 1.18% QoQ the quarter for Covid-19 related impact. Citing increased stress and, thus, Loans worth | 1930 were written-off provisioning requirement, the bank had increased its credit cost guidance from 3.5% to 5%. during the quarter Marred by stress recognition, NII was down 15.2% QoQ to | 1757 crore. This Maintain HOLD with revised target was mainly on account of reversal of | 525 crore of interest due to NPA price of |330 recognition. NIM fell considerably from 8.3% to 6.8% QoQ. Other income was up 57% YoY and 42% QoQ to | 787 crore. On account of lower topline Risk to our call and increased cost due to business activity the C/I ratio was sequentially up to 32% from 27%. During the quarter the bank made total provisions worth Increased impact of Covid-19 may | 1594 crore of which additional NPA provisions to the tune of | 1034 crore hit collections. Thus, delinquencies were against existing NPA resulting from elevated risk in certain may rise Research Equity Retail geographies. As a result, PAT was down 80% YoY to | 103 crore. – Loan growth for the quarter was healthy on a yearly basis at 22.5% YoY to Better than expected growth revival | 81613 crore but sequential growth trajectory was subdued at 1.7%. could boost profitability Deposit accretion during the quarter was also strong at 36.6% YoY to | 77972 crore. This was helped by 61% YoY rise in CASA deposits. As a result, CASA ratio increased from 36.8% to 43.4% YoY. Research Analyst Valuation & Outlook Kajal Gandhi Securities ICICI Microcredit at 67% of loan book and lower than expected recoveries due to [email protected] second Covid wave have further raised caution towards the bank. With loan Vishal Narnolia portfolio in key states like West Bengal and Assam facing challenges due to [email protected] multiple reasons and clarity on law change awaited, near term outlook on overall asset quality is uncertain. The management has indicated that they Sameer Sawant plan to build provisions buffers irrespective of external environment, which [email protected] could keep credit cost elevated. Restructuring in non-micro book is also elevated. Hence, we maintain our HOLD rating with a revised target price of | 330 (| 370 earlier) by valuing the bank at 2.5xFY23E ABV. Key Financial Summary FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E CAGR (FY21-23E) NII 4496 6324 7563 9940 12234 27% PPP 3748 5447 6855 8240 10226 22% PAT 1951 3024 2205 3935 5353 56% ABV (|) 92.0 91.9 90.3 102.2 133.5 P/E 18.2 16.4 21.7 12.2 8.9 P/ABV 3.2 3.2 3.3 2.9 2.2 RoE (%) 19.0 22.1 13.5 20.4 22.6 RoA (%) 3.9 3.9 2.1 3.1 3.3 ss Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research ICICI Direct Research Result Update | Bandhan Bank Exhibit 1: Variance Analysis Q4FY21 Q4FY21E Q4FY20 YoY (%) Q3FY21 QoQ (%) Comments Growth marred by sharp fall in margins due to interest NII 1,757 2,062 1,680 4.6 2,072 -15.2 reversals NIM (%) 6.8 8.1 8.1 -133 bps 8.3 -150 bps Interest reversals of | 538 crore dented margins Other Income 787 525 500 57.4 553 42.3 Net Total Income 2,544 2,587 2,180 16.7 2,625 -3.1 Staff cost 426 384 362 17.6 435 -2.1 Other Operating 389 342 297 30.8 276 40.9 Sequential rise due to increased business activity PPP 1,729.5 1,861.0 1,520.7 13.7 1,914.1 -9.6 Elevated provisions due to accelarated provisions of | Provision 1,594.3 1,060.9 827.4 92.7 1,068.7 49.2 1034 crore PBT 135.2 800.1 693.3 -80.5 845.4 -84.0 Tax Outgo 32.1 203.2 176.0 -81.7 212.8 -84.9 PAT 103.0 596.9 517.3 -80.1 632.6 -83.7 High provisions dented profitability Key Metrics Proforma asset quality declined but was driven by GNPA 5,758 3,264 993 480.0 859 570.1 write-off worth | 1930 crore NNPA 2,861 979 389 634.7 201 1,321.1 Advances 81,613 81,607 66,630 22.5 80,260 1.7 Sequential growth remained modest Deposits 77,972 76,878 57,082 36.6 71,183 9.5 Healthy traction driven by CASA Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 2: Change in estimates FY22E FY23E (| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Net Interest Income 9,182 9,940 8.3 11,564.9 12,234 5.8 Pre Provision Profit 7,783 8,240 5.9 9,876.4 10,226 3.5 NIM (%) 7.9 8.0 6 bps 8.0 8.1 10 bps PAT 3,989 3,935 -1.3 5,058.4 5,353 5.8 ABV (|) 111.4 102.2 -8.3 141.0 133.5 -5.3 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 3: Assumption Current Earlier FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY21 FY22E FY23E Credit growth (%) 68.1 22.5 22.2 23.0 18.6 26.6 27.1 Deposit Growth (%) 32.0 36.6 27.2 27.2 28.9 27.1 27.2 CASA ratio (%) 36.8 43.4 43.0 42.6 43.7 43.3 42.9 NIM Calculated (%) 9.1 7.6 8.0 8.1 8.2 7.9 8.0 Cost to income ratio (%) 32.2 29.1 30.4 29.4 29.1 29.4 28.2 GNPA (| crore) 992.8 5,633.5 5,919.6 6,272.6 3,367.8 3,653.9 3,996.5 NNPA (| crore) 389.4 2,861.0 4,629.7 4,678.6 2,450.0 2,493.3 2,527.3 Slippage ratio (%) 1,040.5 4,990.0 572.3 705.9 2,500.0 572.3 685.2 Credit cost (%) 2.3 4.9 3.0 2.5 4.0 2.5 2.5 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2 ICICI Direct Research Result Update | Bandhan Bank Key conference call highlights Asset Quality Collection across the board declined by 3-4% from March levels Total write-off during the quarter were at | 1930 crore of which | 772 crore is from Assam and | 671 crore from West Bengal. Slippages for the quarter were at | 3195 crore In terms of customers, 4.1 lakh customer accounts were written -off Of the total | 617 crore restructuring, 50% is towards self-employed segment in housing loans Only less than 1% customer not paying single instalment NPA in housing segment is ~3% Business Cumulative ECLGS loans were at | 1830 crore in which 53% were from West Bengal and 20% from Assam Average Savings account rate is 5.15% Looking to expand into new geographies Others Interest reversal for the quarter was at | 538 crore The management intends to build provision buffer, going ahead Other income improved due to PSLC fee and distribution income ICICI Securities | Retail Research 3 ICICI Direct Research Result Update | Bandhan Bank Story in charts Exhibit 4: Credit growth to pick up gradually 92.3 160000 83.9 100 140000 80 120000 63.7 33.6 100000 22.6 14.1 60 80000 19.4 (| crore) (| 40 60000 23.2 (%) 40000 9.3 20 20000 64186 65456 71538 74330 76620 80260 81613 108998 134269 0 0 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 FY21 FY22E FY23E AUM YoY growth (%) Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 5: Loan mix – Micro and Non-micro loans FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 FY21 FY22E FY23E Gross advances (AUM) 66630 74330 76620 80260 88238 108998 134269 Net advances (O/s Loan Book) 66630 74330 76620 80260 81613 99722 122674 Micro loans 46189 47478 49780 53050 58350 71383 89228 Non micro loans 20441 26852 26840 27210 23263 28340 33446 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 6: Healthy deposit accretion Exhibit 7: Margin trajectory 140000 50 12 45 120000 43.0 42.6 42.8843.39 43.4 43.0 40 10 100000 37.0838.23 35 80000 8 30 60000 % 6 25 (%) (| crore) (| 40000 20 4 20000 15 54908 57082 60602 66130 71183 77972 99146 126097 49195 2 8.0 9.4 10.5 8.2 7.9 9.1 8.2 8.3 6.8 7.6 8.0 8.1 0 10 10.5 0 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY19 FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 FY21E FY22E FY23E Q2FY21 Q3FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q1FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Deposits CASA ratio (%) NIM Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 8: Sharp spike in NPA levels Exhibit 9: Return ratios 7000 6.9 8.0 28 30 6000 5.9 7.0 24 1.2 5.1 6.0 25 22 23 23 5000 20 20 5.0 19 4000 20 3.9 4.0 % 14 14 14 3000 1.2 15 13 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.9 3.0 (%) (| crore) (| 1.5 1.4 2000 2.0 10 4.9 4.8 1000 1.0 2.9 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.1 851 1064 1182 993 1007 874 859 5633 5920 6273 820 5 2.3 2 2.1 2.1 0.4 0 0.0 0 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY19 FY20 FY21 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 FY22E FY23E Q3FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 GNPA GNPA ratio (%) ROE (%) ROA (%) Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities | Retail Research 4 ICICI Direct Research Result Update | Bandhan Bank Exhibit 10: Customer accretion trend Lakh Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Borrowers 117.3 201 203.1 208.2
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