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Bandhan Bank BSE SENSEX S&P CNX 52,736 15,815 CMP: INR347 TP: INR375 (+8%) Neutral

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Bandhan Bank BSE SENSEX S&P CNX 52,736 15,815 CMP: INR347 TP: INR375 (+8%) Neutral 29 June 2021 Company Update | Sector: Financials Bandhan Bank BSE SENSEX S&P CNX 52,736 15,815 CMP: INR347 TP: INR375 (+8%) Neutral Motilal Oswal values your support in Asset quality challenges to ease on MFI relief measures the Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2021 CE remains a near term monitorable; turning more sanguine on asset for India Research, Sales, Corporate Access and Trading team. quality over 2HFY22 We request your ballot. The Finance Minister in its press conference today announced relief measures for the MFI sector. The Government announced credit guarantee scheme amounting to INR75b for incremental disbursements with maximum borrower indebtedness of upto INR125k. The scheme would provide relief to ~2.5m MFI Stock Info borrowers which corresponds to ~4% of active borrower base. Bloomberg BANDHAN IN This has come on the back of recent relief package for MFI borrowers that was Equity Shares (m) 1,611 announced last week by the state Government of Assam providing relief to key M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 558.7 / 7.5 52-Week Range (INR) 430 / 251 MFI lenders. We believe that risks to MFI lenders are receding at the margin 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 12/-26/-47 even as near term earnings/asset quality pressure may continue, also as the 12M Avg Val (INR M) 4729 implementation of these schemes will take some time. Free float (%) 60.0 For players like Bandhan whose SMA book stands at 16.2% currently (from Financials Snapshot (INR b) 24.4% in 3QFY21) the double bonanza of MFI package from Assam state Y/E March FY21 FY22E FY23E government and the central government relief measures for the MFI sector NII 75.6 92.4 114.5 will enable faster turnaround in asset quality / earnings trajectory. We are OP 68.6 83.3 103.1 turning more sanguine on asset quality over 2HFY22 though remain watchful NP 22.1 33.9 53.0 on collection efficiency in the near term, mainly in key state of West Bengal NIM (%) 7.6 7.6 7.7 EPS (INR) 13.7 21.1 32.9 (~45% of MFI portfolio). EPS Gr. (%) -36.5 53.8 56.3 We thus increase our PT to INR375 (from INR335) based on 2.5x FY23E BV BV/Sh. (INR) 108.1 123.3 149.1 though we maintain our NEUTRAL rating as we await more clarity around ABV/Sh. (INR) 95.7 110.9 138.5 implementation of these schemes. Ratios RoE (%) 13.5 18.2 24.2 Government announces significant relief measures for MFI sector RoA (%) 2.1 2.7 3.4 The Finance Minister in its press conference today announced positive relief Valuations measures for the sector. The Central Govt. announced credit guarantee P/E(X) 25.3 16.5 10.5 P/BV (X) 3.2 2.8 2.3 scheme amounting to INR75b which is estimated to benefit ~2.5m impacted P/ABV (X) 3.6 3.1 2.5 MFI borrowers (~4% of active MFI borrowers). All standard borrowers including borrowers who are delinquent for <89dpds would be eligible. This scheme would provide a guarantee of upto 75% for loans upto INR1.25lacs. This will help address asset quality issues that the industry is witnessing and also boost confidence of the lenders for making fresh disbursements in the MFI sector. This is the first time that the Central Government has announced a relief package focused on MFI sector and thus underscores the importance of the segment. Assam Relief package has helped address sector woes – only recently The relief measures from the central government have come on the back of recent relief package for MFI borrowers that was announced last week by the state Government of Assam, providing relief to key MFI lenders. The Assam state government announced scheme to regularize stressed borrowers and repay the entire loans of highly stressed borrowers. The total relief package outlay of INR80-85b was huge and covered ~69% of total MFI loans in Assam. Research Analyst: Nitin Aggarwal ([email protected]); | Himanshu Taluja ([email protected]) Alpesh Mehta ([email protected]); Yash Agarwal ([email protected]) Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report. 14 January 2020 1 Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital. Bandhan Bank Shareholding pattern (%) Bandhan Bank to be a key beneficiary of the double bonanaza; other MFI As On Mar-21 Dec-20 Mar-20 lenders to also benefit Promoter 40.0 40.0 61.0 DII 1.9 4.4 8.8 Bandhan whose SMA book stands at 16.2% currently (from 24.4% in 3QFY21) will be FII 34.9 35.2 13.1 the key beneficiary from the double bonanza of MFI package from Assam state Others 23.2 20.4 17.2 government and the central government relief measures as it owns nearly half the FII Includes depository receipts total MFI loans in the state. Bandhan’s total exposure in the state of Assam is Stock performance (one-year) INR74.3b (3QFY21) which forms ~14% of the total AUM. Nearly ~18% of the Assam’s portfolio for Bandhan Bank has been in the SMA category (~7% in 8-30 day overdue, 6% in 31-60 day overdue and another 5% in 61- 90 day) while ~14% has already been recognized as an NPA as on Mar’21. Therefore, Assam relief package has brought a major relief for the lender and this coupled with central government relief measures will enable faster turnaround in asset quality / earnings trajectory. Higher overdue accounts in West Bengal remains a key monitorable Bandhan had higher overdue position with ~10% of West Bengal state portfolio in the SMA category while another ~10% already recognized as NPA. The state was facing collection headwinds even before the COVID-19 resurgence due to election disturbances and hopes of loan waiver announcements. Further, the impact of the COVID-2.0 was higher on the rural India and thus adversely affected collection efficiency over Apr’21 to 94%-95% (collection efficiency almost recovered to 98% in Mar’21). The Government measures announced today could provide some support however the asset quality in West Bengal would be a key to watch as 45% of Bandhan’s MFI portfolio is concentrated in this state. Valuation and view We believe that risks to MFI lenders are receding at the margin even as near term earnings/asset quality pressure may continue, also as the implementation of these schemes will take some time. The double bonanza of MFI package from Assam state government and the central government relief measures for the MFI sector will enable faster turnaround in asset quality / earnings trajectory. We are turning more sanguine on asset quality over 2HFY22 though remain watchful on collection efficiency in the near term, mainly in key state of West Bengal (~45% of MFI portfolio). We thus increase our PT to INR375 (from INR335) based on 2.5x FY23E ABV though we maintain our NEUTRAL rating as we await more clarity around implementation of these schemes. 29 June 2021 2 Bandhan Bank Exhibit 1: MFI – Collection Efficiency improved to 98% Exhibit 2: MFI Portfolio- Asset quality trends across buckets MFI collection Efficiency (excluding arrears) 3QFY21 FY21 7.8% 7.6% 98%* 89% 92% 90% 95% 6.6% 5.8% 68% 4.2% 3.3% 2.8% 2.5% June'20 Sep'20 Dec'20 upto 16th Mar'21 Mar'21 Jan'21 SMA (8-30) SMA (31-60) SMA (61-90) NPA (>90 days) 98% collection trends are excluding NPA’s & written-off borrowers Source: MOFSL, Company Source: MOFSL, Company Exhibit 3: EEB DPD movement in Assam trends Exhibit 4: EEB- DPD movement in West Bengal 3QFY21 FY21 14.2% 3QFY21 FY21 13.0% 10.2% 8.9% 8.0% 8.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.1% 5.0% 4.0% 4.1% 3.0% 3.2% SMA (8-30) SMA (31-60) SMA (61-90) NPA (>90 days) SMA (8-30) SMA (31-60) SMA (61-90) NPA (>90 days) Source: MOFSL, Company Source: MOFSL, Company Exhibit 5: Asset Quality ratios GNPA ratio (%) NNPA ratio (%) 7.1 6.8 3.5 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 4QFY19 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 4QFY21 3QFY21* Source: MOFSL, Company 29 June 2021 3 2 9 June 2021 Exhibit 6: Exhibit Exhibit 8: Exhibit 7: Exhibit 3QFY21 basedPro on 4QFY17 29.1 4QFY17 6.8 PCR (%) No of total active micro borrowers (m) borrowers micro active total No of Bandhan active MFI customer base MFIcustomer active Bandhan states top in Efficiency Collection 50% at stood ratio coverage Provision 1QFY18 39.8 1QFY18 6.7 2QFY18 47.4 2QFY18 6.8 - forma 3QFY18 52.3 3QFY18 7.1 4QFY18 53.7 4QFY18 7.7 1QFY19 50.4 1QFY19 8.0 2QFY19 46.7 2QFY19 8.2 3QFY19 8.7 3QFY19 71.5 4QFY19 9.5 4QFY19 72.1 1QFY20 9.8 1QFY20 65.9 2QFY20 10.1 2QFY20 68.3 3QFY20 10.5 3QFY20 58.4 4QFY20 11.1 Source: Source: Source: Source: 4QFY20 60.8 1QFY21 11.2 1QFY21 66.6 MOFSL MOFSL Source: CompanySource: Bandhan Bank Bandhan 2QFY21 11.2 2QFY21 70.0 , , Company , , Company 3QFY21 11.3 3QFY21* 66.9 4QFY21 12.3 4QFY21 50.3 4 Bandhan Bank Financials and valuations Income Statement (INR b) Y/E March FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E Interest Income 39.1 48.0 66.4 108.9 125.2 163.6 200.6 Interest Expense 15.1 17.7 21.5 45.6 49.6 71.1 86.1 Net Interest Income 24.0 30.3 45.0 63.2 75.6 92.4 114.5 Growth (%) 157.7 26.2 48.3 40.7 19.6 22.2 23.9 Non Interest Income 4.1 7.1 10.6 15.5 21.1 26.2 32.4 Total Income 28.1 37.4 55.6 78.7 96.7 118.6 146.9 Growth (%) 160.0 32.8 48.7 41.6 22.9 22.6 23.9 Operating Expenses 10.2 13.1 18.1 24.3 28.2 35.3 43.8 Pre Provision Profits 17.9 24.3 37.5 54.5 68.6 83.3 103.1 Growth (%) 284.1 35.5 54.2 45.3 25.9 21.5 23.8 Core PPoP 17.7 23.8 37.1 53.3 67.2 81.6 101.2 Growth (%) 281.1 34.6 55.7 43.7 26.0 21.5 23.9 Provisions (excl tax) 0.9 3.7 7.4 13.9 39.1 37.9 32.2 PBT 17.0 20.6 30.1 40.5 29.5 45.4 70.9 Tax 5.9 7.1 10.6 10.3 7.4 11.4 17.9 Tax Rate (%) 34.8 34.6 35.2 25.4 25.2 25.2 25.2 PAT 11.1 13.5 19.5 30.2 22.1 33.9 53.0 Growth (%) 304.0 21.0 45.0 54.9 -27.1 53.8 56.3 Balance Sheet Y/E March FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E Equity Share Capital 11.0 11.9 11.9 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 Reserves & Surplus 33.5 81.9 100.1 135.9 158.0 182.4 224.1 Net Worth 44.5 93.8 112.0 152.0 174.1 198.5 240.2 Deposits 232.3 338.7 432.3 570.8 779.7 998.0 1,267.5 Growth (%) 92.2 45.8 27.6 32.0 36.6 28.0 27.0 of which CASA Dep 68.4 116.2 176.2 210.3 338.3 438.1 570.4 Growth (%) 162.4 70.0 51.6 19.4 60.9 29.5 30.2 Borrowings 10.3 2.9 5.2 163.8 169.6 178.1 192.3 Other Liabilities & Prov.
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