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Bandhan Bank Initiating Coverage The Evolving Story December 15, 2020 Shreepal Doshi ([email protected], +91 99786 71550), Rohan Mandora ([email protected], +91 97370 65666) India Equity Research | BFSI December 15, 2020 Initiating Coverage Bandhan Bank CMP Target Price Rs 412 Rs 490 Evolving biz model, profitable franchise Mar 2022 Rating Upside LONG 19% () ➢ Bandhan Bank (Bandhan) has seen a remarkable transition to an universal bank with Stock Information new non-MFI product additions. Its distinctive business model is backed by industry Market Cap (Rs Mn) 663,715 leading track record in MFI and Housing (erstwhile Gruh Finance) coupled with one of 52 Wk H/L (Rs) 527/152 the fastest growth in deposits (54% CAGR over FY16-1HFY21). Avg Daily Volume (1yr) 18,239,190 ➢ While underpenetrated/rural geographies remain focus areas, Bank plans to re- Avg Daily Value (Rs Mn) 80.0 classify/expand the product bouquet under its Vision 2025 with a target loan mix of Equity Cap (Rs Mn) 387 30%/30%/30%/10% for EEB/Mortgages /CB/Retail segments. Face Value (Rs) 10 ➢ In Oct’20, ~95% of Bandhan's MFI customers have started paying, leading to ~91% Share Outstanding (Mn) 1,610.4 collection efficiency. COVID provisions stand at Rs 21bn (2.7% of gross loans). Bloomberg Code BANDHAN IN ➢ Expect 2H disbursements to be healthy. We build in 24%/25% CAGR for gross Ind Benchmark BANKEX loans/deposits over FY20-FY23 with RoEs of ~23% for FY22/FY23 each. Initiate with LONG with Mar’22 TP of Rs 490, valuing the company at 3.3x on FY23E ABV. Ownership (%) Recent 3M 12M Promoters 40.0 (21.0) (61.0) Remarkable transitioning from MFI to universal bank: Bandhan secured RBI’s ‘in-principle’ approval in Apr’14 and began banking operations in Aug’15. The bank delivered gross DII 12.7 4.6 (8.1) loan/deposit CAGR of 43%/54% over FY16-1HFY21 to Rs 774.6bn/Rs 661.3bn, with a FII 32.2 17.8 (14.4) customer base CAGR of 22% over this period. Robust deposit franchise is on the back of (1) Public 15.1 (1.5) (16.6) healthy SA/CA of 33%/5%, (2) retail TD contributing ~41% of deposits and (3) liability customer base of 5.1mn. We however believe the bank’s deposit market share in its key states in East/NE states is still low at 1.5% and can increase further. Revamping product bouquet: Bandhan has revamped its business strategy in 2QFY21 with a FY25E asset target mix of (1) Emerging Entrepreneurship Business (MFI) at 30% (vs 62% currently), (2) Commercial banking (SME, Samruddhi & SEL) at 30% (vs 28%), (3) Retail products (gold, PL, 2W) at 10% (vs 1% currently) and (4) Mortgages (micro, affordable, prime) at 30% (vs 25%). We expect NIMs (on avg. assets)/RoA to contract to 7.1%/3.4% in FY23E (FY20: 8.5%/4.1%) amid a shift to relatively low-yield products. However, RoEs are likely to remain best-in-class at ~23% in FY23E. Healthy PPoP CAGR, contained credit cost: Bandhan delivered a NII/PPoP/PAT CAGR of 61%/85%/82% over FY16-FY20. While it maintained NIMs of 8-10% in this period, operational leverage led to strong PPoP growth. The bank has emerged stronger post the AP Relative price chart crisis, demonetization, Assam agitation and impact of floods and cyclones with resilient asset BANDHAN IN Nifty Index quality and growth. Even post current pandemic, collection efficiency trends has been steadily 555 improving with Oct’20 CE at 91% with 95% paying customers. The bank is carrying a 2.7% 440 provision buffer (Rs ~21bn on gross loans) and guided for 3.5% COVID-related credit cost. 325 We expect credit cost of 2.8%/1.6%/1.5% in FY21/FY22/FY23. 210 View: We appreciate the bank’s track-record to absorb event risks and believe it is well 95 equipped (professional expertise, network and customer franchise) to change its loan mix and Jul-20 Jan-20 Oct-19 capitalise on the cross-sell opportunities. Initiate coverage with LONG. Key risks: Uptick in Apr-20 Source: Bloomberg rural NPAs, delayed economic revival and imposition of lockdown. Financial Summary Analysts YE Credit EPS ABVPS P/E P/ABV ROE Shreepal Doshi Mar NII PPOP PAT RoA (%) cost (Rs) (Rs) (x) (x) (%) Rs mn (bps) [email protected] FY20A 63,239 54,466 30,237 18.8 91.9 21.9 4.5 22.9 4.1 262.2 +91-079 6190 9541 Rohan Mandora FY21E 76,014 60,467 29,840 18.5 102.1 22.2 4.0 18.2 2.9 280.0 [email protected] FY22E 90,945 73,115 44,156 27.4 125.7 15.0 3.3 22.8 3.5 157.0 +91-079 6190 9529 FY23E 109,294 87,468 52,929 32.9 149.0 12.5 2.8 22.8 3.4 150.0 Source: Company, Equirus Research Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report December 15, 2020| 1 Bandhan Bank (BANDHAN IN) India Equity Research | Initiating Coverage Bandhan – the evolving story Transformation from NBFC-MFI to a universal bank Bandhan had secured the RBI’s in-principle approval in Apr’14 and the final nod in Jun’15. Bandhan Secured universal banking license in Bank was incorporated in Dec’14 as a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bandhan Financial Holdings and Jun’15 and began operations in Aug’15 began its operations in Aug’15. Bandhan Financial Holdings Limited is owned by Bandhan Financial Services (BFSL) – the largest NBFC-MFI until all its business was transferred to Bandhan Bank. Bandhan began its journey in 2001 as Bandhan Konnagar, a NGO, providing microfinance services to women in rural West Bengal. BFSL started its microfinance business in 2006 and the NGO transferred its microfinance business to BFSL in 2009; thereby, the entire microfinance business was Gross/net advances CAGR 43%/48% taken over by BFSL. At the time of this transfer, BFSL was India’s largest microfinance company by during FY16-1HFY21 to Rs 774.6bn/ number of customers and loan portfolio size. Under the universal banking license norms, the bank was Rs 733.1bn required to form a NOFHC to be the bank’s promoter and therefore Bandhan Financial Holdings Limited was incorporated. The bank was also required to bring down promoter holding to 40% within five years of commencement of business. The Gruh merger and the recent block deal (Aug’20) enabled the bank to meet this regulatory requirement. The bank’s gross/net advances in FY16 stood at Rs 155.8bn/Rs 124.4bn; since then, it has grown its gross/net advances book at a 43%/48% CAGR during FY16-1HFY21 to Rs 774.6bn/Rs 733.1bn. Further, Bandhan has a customer base of ~20.8mn borrowers, which have grown at a 22% CAGR over FY16-1HFY21. About 90% of Bandhan’s loan book is PSL compliant. Deposit CAGR of 54% over FY16- The deposit franchise registered a 54% CAGR over FY16-1HFY21 to Rs 661.3bn. CASA ratio improved 1HFY21 with CASA ratio at 38.2% from 21.6% in FY16 to 38.2% in 1HFY21. Exhibit 1: Net Advances CAGR of 48% over FY16-1HFY21 Net Advances (Rs Mn) Growth - YoY (%) 800,000 733,067 90% 666,299 80% 700,000 76.5% 600,000 68.1% 70% 60% 500,000 396,434 50% 400,000 35.4% 297,130 40% 300,000 33.4% 30% 200,000 168,391 124,375 20.0% 20% 100,000 10% 0 0% FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 1HFY21 Source: Company Data, Equirus December 15, 2020| 2 Bandhan Bank (BANDHAN IN) India Equity Research | Initiating Coverage Merger with Gruh Finance Board of Directors of Bandhan Bank & On Jan’19, Bandhan approved its merger with Gruh in an all-stock deal (share exchange ratio at Gruh Finance approved the merger in 568:1,000 for Bandhan: Gruh). As on Sep’18, Gruh had an advances book of Rs 166.6bn and Jan’19 Bandhan Rs 333.7bn, leading to a total advances book of Rs ~500.4bn. This merger benefitted Bandhan in two ways: 1. Diversification of product line from an MFI player (86% of book in Sep’18 to 58% post- merger) and delivering healthy gross advances growth of 38% yoy in FY19. Post-merger MFI book shrunk to ~60% 2. Bringing down BFHL’s (non-operating promoter entity) stake from 82.3% to 61% as required vs. 86% earlier; promoter shareholding by Sep’18 RBI guidelines. declined to 61% from 82.3% earlier However, the merger pushed up the bank’s CoF (FY20 CoF at 7.8% vs. 5.5% in FY19) with Gruh’s borrowings also coming on Bandhan’s balance sheet. That said, most borrowings have been replaced by deposits in the last six months. With this merger, blended yields are also expected to moderate as Gruh’s housing product rates range between 9-14% vs. Bandhan’s MFI product yield of ~18%. Exhibit 2: Standalone loan book split in 2QFY19 Exhibit 3: Loan book split post-merger in 2QFY19 Micro Banking Others Micro Banking Retail Home Loans Others 14% 14% 28% 58% 86% Source: Company Data, Equirus Source: Company Data, Equirus Exhibit 4: Bandhan Bank – Brief timeline Year (FY) Events/Brief overview 2001 Began journey as Bandhan Konnagar, an NGO, providing microfinance services to economically weaker women in rural WB 2006 Bandhan acquired an NBFC and established it as Bandhan Financial Services (BFSL).
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