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Q2 FY21 Banking & Financial Services Preview

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Q2 FY21 Banking & Financial Services Preview Page 1 Q2 FY21 Banking & Financial Services Preview 15th Oct. 2020 th India Equity Institutional Research II Q2FY21 Earning Preview II 15 October, 2020 Page 2 Banking & Financial Services Credit Costs elevated, operating performance slowly improves MARKET DATA Close 1D (%) 1M (%) YTD (%) Nifty 11,971 0.31 3.90 (1.62) Sensex 40,794 0.42 4.48 (1.11) Bank Nifty 23,874 1.63 6.27 (25.77) USD / INR 73.26 (0.17) 0.42 5.16 COVERAGE STOCKS Current Price Target Price* Market Cap. Fwd P/ABV Company Upside (%) Rating* (INR) (INR) (INR Cr) 2022E HDFC Bank 1,212 1,427 17.7% 6,67,049 3.0x BUY ICICI Bank 407 495 21.6% 2,63,572 1.9x BUY Axis Bank 471 612 29.9% 1,44,134 1.9x BUY IndusInd Bank 623 659 5.8% 43,209 1.0x ACCUMULATE SBI 200 262 31.0% 1,78,492 0.9x BUY Kotak Bank 1,353 1,458 7.8% 2,67,732 4.3x ACCUMULATE Karur Vysya Bank 30 42 40.0% 2,398 0.4x BUY Bandhan Bank 321 431 34.3% 51,692 2.7x BUY *Note: Target price and recommendation has been retained from previous update reports, unless explicitly mentioned; we will review it post detailed Q2FY21 results analysis. Source: Bloomberg, Data as of October 14, 2020 SECTOR OVERVIEW – Banking . Activity improving sequentially but benefits not broad based: The key indicators of growth have seen improvements but are not broad based. The banks share of incremental participation in investments in G-Sec and bonds is higher than credit outlay supported by targeted lending as risk aversion remained high. The pressure on NIMs is likely to ease as liquidity eases and credit offtake is more pronounced. We expect the banks to focus on restructuring in Q2 and most part of Q3, but the credit costs are likely to remain front ended and elevated. System advances growing at ~6% YoY in August, but growth concentrated towards larger players: The system advances have grown at 6% YoY in August 2020 (Source: RBI), driven by NBFCs, MFIs, Housing, durables and government supported segments. We expect the higher proportion of growth to be concentrated with larger banks/players. Moreover the share of investment driven lending is higher as corporate prefer market borrowings. We believe the funding costs is likely to play a major determinant in advance growth expansion, despite favourable Credit-Deposit (C-D) ratios. As disclosed, HDFC Bank, HDFC and Bandhan Bank have clocked robust growth, whereas IndusInd Bank among others are lagging. Similarly, we expect ICICI, Axis and SBI to grow at a satisfactory pace while KMB is likely to remain sluggish. Advances for our coverage is expected to grow at 8.37% YoY. Flexibility in Funding costs is now key factor for the bank’s operating performance: We believe the ability to lower its deposit and funding cost without losing its deposit franchise meaningfully is expected to remain a key determinant for management of NIMs as the sharer of low yielding loans rise in the book. We like HDFC, HDFC Bank, Kotak and SBI among these. The CASA of Bandhan is also witnessing an improvement. However, IndusInd Bank is likely to face a double threat of sticky costs and lower share of high yielding loans. Overall deposits for banks under our coverage is expected to grow 16.2% YoY. Restructuring underway, credit costs front ended: We believe the banks are likely to focus on restructuring for the current quarter. We therefore expect lower accretions to bad assets. However, banks are likely to front end credit costs as required by RBI regulations. However, the credit costs for the quarter are bank specific. We expect Axis, SBI, KMB, Bandhan, to maintain the relatively elevated provisions, in line with previous two quarter. However, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank have front ended a larger part of their provisions last quarter. Valuation less than historic, rerating company specific: The sector is the most sold off sector since the pandemic. Except marquee names such as HDFC bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank, most banks are trading at P/B lower than historic (30-50% discount). This has been on account of the systemic stress related, unfavourable macros and importantly company specific issues. We believe weak company specific issues are likely to persist as they cautiously tide over turbulent waters. However, the larger banks are expected to fare well by improving the market share and operating performance, enabling further rerating. We like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Bandhan Bank and SBI. ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576 Parvati Rai, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5413 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO> www.krchoksey.com Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ th India Equity Institutional Research II Q2FY21 Earning Preview II 15 October, 2020 Page 3 Banking & Financial Services Exhibit 1: Quarterly result expectation for companies under coverage Bank Q2FY21E Q1FY21A QoQ Q2FY20A YoY Remarks HDFC Bank (INR Cr) NII 16,602 15,665 5.98% 13,515 22.84% The Bank has reported 16.0% YoY growth in advances and 20.0% YoY in deposits. We expect NII growth at 6% PPOP 13,702 12,829 6.81% 11,698 17.13% QoQ/22.8% YoY on the back of improvement in NIMs driven by lower yields, funding costs and liquidity. PAT 7,577 6,659 13.79% 6,345 19.41% PPOP is expected to grow at 6.8% QoQ/17.1% YoY as Other income improves, albeit a marginal MTM hit. PAT is expected to grow on the back of marginally Advances 10,40,501 10,03,299 3.71% 8,96,984 16.00% lower provisions and tamed expenses. We expect provision to normalize as the bank has front ended Deposits 12,25,938 11,89,387 3.07% 10,21,615 20.00% most of the provisions - nevertheless at ~1%. ICICI Bank (INR Cr) NII 9,560 9,280 3.02% 8,057 18.65% We have factored a decent growth in loan book and a PPOP 9,403 10,776 -12.74% 6,874 36.79% marginal drop in NIMs to improve NII by 3.0% QoQ /18.6% YoY. The operating profit is likely to be lower (- PAT 4,427 2,599 70.33% 655 575.96% 12.7% QoQ) on account of the one-off stake sale last quarter, but the fee and business income are poised to improve. We have lowered our credit costs Advances 6,62,427 6,31,215 4.94% 6,13,359 8.00% sequentially as the bank seems to have sufficiently front ended their provisions. Deposits 8,21,602 8,01,622 2.49% 6,96,273 18.00% Axis Bank (INR Cr) NII 6,915 6,985 -1.00% 6,102 13.33% PPOP 6,315 5,844 8.06% 5,952 6.11% Axis Bank is expected to report a 5.6% QoQ growth in PAT on the back of healthier fee income and yet PAT 1,174 1,112 5.56% -112 NM tamed costs. We have factored a marginally lower NIMs on account of repricing and liquidity. We expect the credit costs to remain elevated and the focus to Advances 5,70,000 5,61,341 1.54% 5,21,594 9.28% remain on restructuring. Deposits 6,50,000 6,28,150 3.48% 5,83,958 11.31% IndusInd Bank (INR Cr) NII 3,174 3,309 -4.09% 2,910 9.09% PPOP 2,874 2,861 0.44% 2,600 10.54% IndusInd Bank is likely to deliver a decline in NII by 4.1% QoQ as growth in advances is tepid at 1.5% QoQ and PAT 506 461 9.85% 1,383 -63.42% NIMs falls on change in mix and sticky costs. We expect PPOP to remain flat sequentially as other Advances 2,01,055 1,98,069 1.51% 1,97,113 2.00% income improves. We continue to factor high credit costs, largely in line as of last quarter as a higher share of book is poised for restructuring. Deposits 2,27,912 2,11,265 7.88% 2,07,193 10.00% ANALYST KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576 Parvati Rai, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5413 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO> www.krchoksey.com Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ th India Equity Institutional Research II Q2FY21 Earning Preview II 15 October, 2020 Page 4 Banking & Financial Services Bank Q2FY21E Q1FY21A QoQ Q2FY20A YoY Remarks SBI (INR Cr) NII 27,486 26,642 3.17% 24,600 11.73% We expect an improving operating performance for PPOP 17,186 16,521 4.02% 14,714 16.79% the bank with NII growth of 3.2% QoQ/11.7% YoY and PPOP growth of 4.0% QoQ/16.8% YoY on the back of PAT 3,139 4,189 -25.07% 3,012 4.23% healthy advance growth, largely stable NIMs, improvement in fee income, despite higher staff costs. Advances 23,00,000 22,98,346 0.07% 21,46,160 7.17% However the bank's provisions are likely to remain elevated on the stress book. Deposits 35,19,363 34,19,363 2.92% 30,33,396 16.02% Kotak Mahindra Bank (INR Cr) NII 3,366 3,724 -9.61% 3,350 0.49% PPOP 2,475 2,624 -5.66% 2,509 -1.33% We have factored a flattish NII growth YoY on the back of lower NIMs and loan growth.
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