LABOUR MARKET INTELLIGENCE PACK

FEBRUARY 2021 Introduction

This document collates evidence about the labour market in the West of England, highlighting the current challenges posed by the COVID pandemic as well as identifying longer- term issues. The analysis looks at the characteristics and Contents spatial distribution of the labour force, and business and employer demand. It covers both short and long term This document is split into the Labour Market Intelligence and provides interpretation following sections: around the available data.

Geography Section Page The document refers to the West of England region. This is Business Environment 4 taken to mean the West of England Local Enterprise Partnership area, which is made up of four unitary authorities: Unemployment, 12 Employment and ▪ Bath and North East Somerset Redundancy ▪ Bristol Current Labour 23 ▪ North Somerset Market Demand ▪ South Gloucestershire

2 Summary

This section summarises results from the rest of the report. Business Environment CurrentLabour Market Demand

▪ The West of England has a broad sector base with a variety of ▪ Job posting data indicates that levels in January 2021 were businesses based in the region. slightly below those seen pre-pandemic, with a fall seen in January compared to December 2020, although postings were up ▪ The West of England has some specialist industries that make up a larger proportion of employment than the UK average, such as 81.7% on the year low of April 2020. There has been a shift in the Civil Engineering, Education and Knowledge Creation, Creative, type of jobs advertised. Gains in recent months were partly Financial and Legal Services, and Digital. The impact of the driven by strong increases in postings in both the IT and human economic downturn caused by the COVID pandemic is expected to health and social care sector. vary between sectors. ▪ The most frequently demanded jobs advertised January 2021 were: Programmers and software development Unemployment, Employment and Redundancy professionals (772), Nurse (437), Sales related occupations (363), Managers and proprietors in other services (347) and Care ▪ As of January 2021, 4.8% of working age population in the West of workers and home carers (306). England were claiming unemployment benefits (35,675 ▪ Thematic areas of skills demand: residents). This is a 0.1 percentage point decrease from the rate seen in December 2020 (4.9%). (1) STEM subjects – these are the basis of many technological jobs. (2) Digital/technology skills – these are applicable both within the ▪ The Labour Force Survey confirms unemployment is rising in the important and resilient IT, creative and digital sectors, as well as in South West region, with males and females seeing similar increases a variety of other jobs such as finance and investment roles. in rates between the Jan – March 2020 and Sept -Nov 2020 time period. Males saw consistently higher rates of unemployment both (3) Business skills – business related skills such as sales and nationally. The region saw a lower unemployment rate than England management are applicable across industry and see consistent as a whole, at 4.2% regionally compared to 5.3% nationally. demand. (4) Specific vocations – training for specific jobs currently in demand (based on evidence), for example warehouse operatives and HGV drivers, care workers, teachers and nurses.

Sources: See corresponding later sections. 3 BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT Businesses in the West of England

Business concentration Business size

There are 46,275 businesses in the West of England. That Individuals in the Labour Market are often unaware that is 400 businesses per 10,000 residents. This is below the 78% of businesses in the West of England have fewer than five UK average and in the middle of comparator areas. employees. The results below are similar to those for the UK overall (78.5%) Number of businesses per 10,000 people (2020) Employee size of businesses in the West of England (2019)

London 593

Cambridgeshire and Peterborough 432

UK 412

West of England 400

Greater Manchester 369

West Midlands 311

Sheffield City Region 280

Liverpool City Region 277

Tees Valley 261

5 Source: ONS Annual Population Survey via NOMIS; Office for National Statistics (ONS) Business; Activity, Size and Location Volume employers in the region

The West of England has some volume employers with over 1,000 employees, including:

6 Employment by sector

In 2019, the largest employing Employment by sector (% of total) (2019) sectors within the West of England LEP were:

• Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (14% of all jobs in the region)

• Human health and social work activities (13% of all jobs in the region)

• Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (11% of all jobs in the region)

Source: ONS Business Register and Employment Survey via NOMIS 7 Regional Specialisms & Growth Areas

The West of England has some specialist industries, which employ more Growth in the number people in the region proportionally than the national average. The of jobs (England) adjacent table highlights the sectors where we have employment specialisms, alongside whether these sectors are growing or shrinking between 2018 and nationally. This helps us understand where there are growth Sector specialism 2019 opportunities, and where there may be a future skills demand; or if a current specialism is at risk due to industry contraction. This is Vehicle and Defence Technology +2% particularly relevant during the current pandemic where COVID has altered or accelerated certain trends. Civil Engineering +6%

Key points: Utility -3%

• Civil Engineering is a strength and is growing nationally, as is creative. Education and Knowledge Creation 0% Both are strong contributors to GVA. Government +4% • The West of England has fewer people in professional services than the UK average, although London skews this data and it is still a Local Environmental Services +6% significant contributor to the region’s GVA. Creative +4% • Given its engineering specialisms, the West of England could have opportunities in both Precision Technology and Maritime sectors, Property Development -1% which it currently has a below average number of employees in.

For more information, see appendix ‘Regional Specialisms’ Construction Products and Services -1%

Financial and Legal Services -8%

Source: EMSI ‘Strength Finder’ Tool, based on ONS ASHE and BRES Data 8 Wages in specialist areas

National jobs Difference to West of Most of the West of England LEP’s specialist growth % (2018- Average Wage (West of England Average Full- industries pay more than the regional average, Sector Specialism 2019) England, 2019) time Wage (£31,183) reflecting their highly skilled nature and competitiveness. Vehicle and Defence Technology 2% £41,196 24% Only Government and Creative have an average Civil Engineering 6% £38,094 18% salary lower than that of the regional average. Utility -3% £45,500 31% Creative’s reliance on freelancer workers could Education and potentially mean this underestimates wages in the Knowledge Creation 0% £31,411 1% sector – it is likely that with these included, the average wage would be higher. Government 4% £29,110 -7% Local Environmental Services 6% £31,481 1% Creative 4% £30,872 -1%

Property Development -1% £31,611 1% Construction Products and Services -1% £37,857 18% Financial and Legal Services -8% £36,591 15%

Source: EMSI ‘Strength Finder’ Tool, based on ONS ASHE and BRES Data 9 Future Trends: Pre-pandemic Predictions

Shape of the UK Labour Market 2017 – 2027 Working Futures provides a comprehensive and detailed model of the UK labour market and skills needs. It projects the future size and shape of the labour market by considering employment prospects by industry, occupation, qualification level, gender and employment status. Areas of growth Areas of Decline Impact of COVID Sectoral trends in employment • Business Services including • Distribution • Areas of growth are still considered professional and scientific • Manufacturing accurate • Health & Social Care • Finance and Insurance • Distribution and construction are no • Construction longer likely to decline in the short • Public Admin term, due to policy and demand changes Occupational trends • Caring and professional service • Secretarial Occupations • Growth in caring and professional • Corporate managers and • Plant, Process and Machine service is likely accelerated directors Operatives • Declining areas could experience • Business and public service • Skilled Metal and Electronic accelerated decline, although the associate professionals Trades future of manufacturing remains uncertain Replacement Demand – natural Replacement demand amongst all • In the immediate future, churn and movement within occupational groups is expected to replacement demand is expected to sectors. generate 7 times more job be less strong than predicted opportunities than growth • Economic downturn and extensive uncertainty make it less likely for individuals to leave their work and seek new employment

10 Source: Working Futures 2017 - 2027 Impact of COVID-19 on economic sectors

The chart below shows the impact on Gross Value Added (GVA) of certain sectors of the economy at a UK level. Almost all sectors have experienced a drop in economic output since February 2020, but some have been more adversely impacted than others. After recovery over the summer, output in the accommodation and food service sector has fallen again more recently. This data does not yet reflect the impact of the third lockdown. Monthly GVA change for various sectors from February 2020 120

100

80

60

40

20

0 2020 FEB 2020 APR 2020 JUN 2020 AUG 2020 OCT 2020 DEC

Wholesale, retail & motors Other services Accomodation & food Financial & insurance Arts, entertainment & recreation Manufacturing Construction Baseline

Source: ONS GDP estimates, December 2020 11 UNEMPLOYMENT, EMPLOYMENT AND REDUNDANCY Claimant Count

As of January 2021, 4.8% of working age population in the Percentage of Working Age Residents Claiming Unemployment West of England were claiming unemployment benefits (35,675 residents). This is a 0.1 percentage point decrease Related Benefits from the rate seen in December 2020 (4.9%). 7.0

There are now 19,900 more claimants in the West of England 6.0 than there were in February 2020, before the effects of the pandemic hit. 5.0 The rate in the West of England remains below the national rate of 6.3% for January 2021. Bristol has the highest rate of 4.0 claimants within the LEP, at 6.0% of the working age population. 3.0 January 2021 Count % of working age

2.0 B&NES 4,760 3.8

18,940 6.0 Bristol 1.0

N.Som 5,650 4.5 0.0 S.Glos 6,325 3.6 July 2018 October January April 2019 July 2019 October January April 2020 July 2020 October January 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 West of England 35,675 4.8 Bath and North East Somerset Bristol, City of North Somerset England 2,200,965 6.3 South Gloucestershire West of England England

13 Labour Force Survey Unemployment

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) provides estimates on unemployment in line with ILO definitions, which can provide a more robust picture of unemployment than the claimant count. It Labour Force Survey: Percentage Unemployment Rate is only available at South West level. 6

The LFS unemployment rate has been steadily rising since the start of the COVID pandemic both nationally and in the South West. 5

The SW region rate was consistently lower than the national rate for the two ears before COVID, and was 0.8 percentage points lower in 4 January to March 2020. This gap has closed since the pandemic, but widened again in the September – November period.

Male and female rates have increased similarly between Jan- March 3 and September – November, with increases of 1.0 and 0.8 percentage points respectively. South South South England England England West West West 2 Date male female total male female total Mar -May 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.0 3.4 3.7 2020 Apr - Jun 4.4 4.0 4.2 4.5 3.3 4.0 1 2020 May -Jul 4.6 4.1 4.4 4.7 3.7 4.2 2020 Jun -Aug 5.1 4.1 4.6 5.3 3.4 4.4 0 2020 Jun 2018-Aug Oct 2018-Dec Feb 2019-Apr Jun 2019-Aug Oct 2019-Dec Feb 2020-Apr Jun 2020-Aug Jul -Sep 5.4 4.5 4.9 5.3 3.3 4.3 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 England male England female England total Aug -Oct 5.5 4.8 5.2 5.5 3.6 4.6 South West male South West female South West total 2020 Sep -Nov 5.6 5.0 5.3 4.8 3.6 4.2 14 2020 Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey Unemployment remains highest in areas with high unemployment pre-covid

15 All areas have seen a rise in the number of claimants

16 Indices of Multiple Deprivation – employment and education

Indices of multiple deprivation (IMD) are widely-used datasets within Employment deprivation compared across England the UK to classify the relative deprivation (essentially a measure of LSOAs in top poverty) of small areas. Multiple indices of deprivation are provided, Local Authority LSOAs in top 20% 10% reflecting types of deprivation, which can compiled into a single score of deprivation. Bath and North East Somerset 5 1 The employment and education indices are particularly interesting from a Bristol, City of 65 33 labour market perspective. North Somerset 20 13 Employment South Gloucestershire 4 0

Every local authority in the West of England LEP has some lower super output areas that fall in the top 20% most deprived nationally, in terms of Education deprivation compared across England employment deprivation. Bristol has the significant majority, although North Somerset also has a relatively high number. LSOAs in top LSOAs in top Local Authority 20% 10% Education

Every local authority in the West of England LEP has some lower super Bath and North East Somerset 11 7 output areas that fall in the top 20% and top 10% most deprived Bristol, City of 59 40 nationally, in terms of education deprivation. Bristol has the significant North Somerset 12 7 majority at both levels. South Gloucestershire 18 6 Deprivation by ward, showing how many LSOAs fall into the most deprived by ward level, is available in the appendix. Source: Indices of Multiple Deprivation , how these indices are calculated can be found here 17 Salaries over time

Salaries in the West of England LEP are slightly higher than the national average. In 2020 the West of England average Median Earnings, £ per annum salary was £26,662 for all workers, 2.3% higher than the national 29,000 average.

For full-time workers, the average salary was £32,442, and for 28,000 part time it was £11,790. 27,000 Full-time working males earned, on average, £7,413 a year more than full-time working females. 26,000

Males in the West of England LEP also earned slightly more 25,000 than the national average (3.1%). This is was true for females also, but to a lesser extent (0.7%) 24,000

Female Male 23,000 Median Salary West of Difference to Difference to England LEP, Difference to the National the National Date National Average Average Average 22,000 2014 1.5% 1.2% 2.0% 21,000 2015 3.7% 1.5% 3.0%

2016 1.3% -0.3% 3.2% 20,000 2017 -2.4% -3.2% 1.9% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 -0.8% -0.1% 1.3% West of England LEP Bath and North East Somerset Bristol, City of North Somerset 2019 0.1% 0.0% 1.5% South Gloucestershire England 2020 2.3% -0.9% 1.4% 18 Source: ONS, ASHE Zero-hours contracts

The number of people in zero hours contacts increased in the South West region between the April-June 2019 and April-June 2020, from 83,000 to 93,000*. This is broadly in line with increases at a UK level. Percentage or people on 0 hours contacts, April to June These numbers equate to 3.6% of female and 2.8% of males working in 0 hour contracts. 6.0

In terms of age, 16-24 year olds are the most likely to work on 0 hours 5.0 contracts, comprising of 9.9% of those employed in this age group.

Such employees are vulnerable during recessions as employers can 4.0 more easily reduce these employees hours to 0.

*Rounded to nearest thousand due to sample size 3.0

2020 2.0 In employment on a zero-hours Percentage of contract people on a zero- 1.0 - (thousands) hours contract A-E Production, including agriculture 47 4.4 0.0 F Construction 32 3.1 G Wholesale and retail 119 11.3 I Accommodation and food 237 22.6 J-M Information, finance, professional 56 5.3 N Admin and support services 65 6.2 O Public admin 20 1.9 2019 2020 P Education 101 9.6 Q Health and social work 207 19.7 R,S,T+H Transport, arts, other services 167 15.9 Source: ONS Zero-hour contract analysis, based on LFS 19 Total 1,052 100.0 Self Employed Income Support Scheme – Tranche 3

The SEISS supports self-employed individuals and is run in tranches, with windows within which individuals can apply for grants. Due to Claim by sector, South West the way data is received, it is only possible to conduct sector analyses on individual tranches of the SEISS. This analysis looks at Unknown and other st tranche 3, for which claims were up to the 31 of January 2021. Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles… As of 31st January 2021, 1,903,000 claims had been made to the Transportation and storage SEISS tranche 3. 36,300 of these were in the West of England LEP. Real estate activities Claims by sector is available at a South West level. Public administration and defence; compulsory social… Construction is the largest sector in terms of both number of Professional, scientific and technical activities claims and the total value of claims. The South West construction Other service activities sector contributed slightly less to the total number of claims than the England average (31% of claims compared to 35% of claims). Manufacturing Information and communication In terms in the total financial value of claims, the South West construction sector also contributed less than the England average Human health and social work activities (38% of total value of claims compared to 42%). Financial and insurance activities Other sectors with a high number of claims are: Education ▪ Administrative and support service activities Construction Arts, entertainment and recreation ▪ Other services Agriculture, forestry and fishing ▪ Transport and storage Administrative and support service activities ▪ Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles Accommodation and food service activities Many claims are not categorised by sector and fall into Unknown 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% and other, which reflects the broad nature of self-employed work. England propotion of total claims SW proportion of total claims

Source: HMRC Self Employed Income Support Scheme Statistics, January 2021 Data up to 31/01/2021 20 Covers only Tranche 3 claims Furlough and self- employment income support schemes

▪ As of 31 January 2021, 77,500 West of England employees ▪ Recent Government analysis estimates that 90% of were estimated to be on furlough, representing around employees who left the CJRS in the UK between April and 14% of those eligible. This compares to an estimated take- July this year were still on their original payroll in August. up rate of 16% for the UK as a whole. The below table shows the percentage of employees remaining on their original payroll for different sectors in ▪ As of 31 January 2021, 120,000 claims have been made on the UK. the Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) by West of England residents, amounting to £341.8m. This West of England includes the first, second, and third tranches of the Estimated furlough rate (%) scheme. Details on the fourth grant will be announced on 3 18 March 2021. ▪ First tranche: 44,100 claims (£132.7m) 16 ▪ Second tranche: 39,600 claims (£103.2m) 14 ▪ Third tranche: 36,300 claims (£105.9m) 12

10

8

6

4

2

0 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21

Source: HMRC Coronavirus statistics, CRJS statistics: secondary analysis, ONS Business insights and impact on the UK economy (11 Feb) 21 Self Employed Income Support Scheme by gender Number of claims and average claim value, by gender £ Males make up a greater proportion of Self Employed Income Support Claims Scheme (SEISS) tranche 3 claimants than females – for the West of England LEP, males comprise of 69.1% of claims to the 31st of January 2021. 12000 4000

This is likely to be driven by the sectors males are more likely to work 3500 in, such as construction, which also operates with a high volume of self- 10000 employed people. 3000 The average claim made to the scheme is also higher for males than 8000 females. The greatest difference is in South Gloucestershire, which 2500 has the highest average male claim and, along with Bristol, the lowest average female claim, at £3,400 and £2,300 respectively. 6000 2000

1500 Average Number of Average 4000 Number of claim claims claim 1000 LA claims malemale female female 2000 Bristol, City of (UA) 11100 3000 4400 2300 500

0 0 Bath and North East Bristol, City of (UA) Bath and North East North Somerset UA South Gloucestershire Somerset UA 3700 3300 2000 2400 Somerset UA UA Number of claims male North Somerset UA 4300 3300 2200 2400 Number of claims female Average value of claims made to 31/01/21 for male population (£) Average claim female South Gloucestershire UA 6000 3400 2500 2300 Source: HMRC Self Employed Income Support Scheme Statistics, January 2021 Data up to 31/01/2021 22 Tranche 3 only CURRENT LABOUR MARKET DEMAND Job postings

▪ According to burning-glass analysis tool, there were 12,582 unique Job Postings Over Time (West of England)

job postings advertised in the West of England in January 2021, up 18,000 81.7% on the year low of April 2020, suggesting recovery in terms 16,000 of available jobs. This is slightly below the levels seen before the 14,000 pandemic. 12,000 ▪ The impact of changes in number of jobs available as a result of 10,000 lockdown measures and social distancing became visible in April, 8,000 with significantly fewer jobs advertised. This has risen in last few 6,000 months and is now broadly in line with pre-crises levels. 4,000 2,000

▪ Comparing the type of jobs advertised by industry, the recovery 0 has in part been driven by increases in the number of postings in IT jobs, as well as human health and social care. Moderate recoveries have also been seen in most sectors, although many are not yet at pre-pandemic levels. Top Occupations in December 2020 (West of England)

▪ Programmers and software development professionals (772) Job postings levels and associated analytics are highly sensitive to the ▪ Nurse (437) web-scraping tool used. Sensitivity analysis has been undertaken and, although levels differ between tools, trends over time are similar – ▪ Sales related occupations (363) analysing trends rather than totals is therefore advised. ▪ Managers and proprietors in other services (347) ▪ Care workers and home carers (306)

Source: Labour Insight (BurningGlass) 24 Remote working

Remote working has slowly being growing as in the last few years, in line with economic predictions of a more digitally connected workforce. This trend has been accelerated by COVID. The graph below shows job postings from West of England LEP based employers that are remote roles (excluding recruitment agencies, as they may post remote jobs from other regions). This growth has largely been driven by Professional Service Occupations, including computer programmers, sales professionals and finance. West of England Job postings including word 'remote' 1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

Source: Labour Insight (BurningGlass) 25 Skills demand

Skills (January 2021) Job Postings In terms of skills demand, customer service and teamwork / collaboration are the most frequently demanded skills in job Teamwork / Collaboration 15.0% adverts, cited in 14.2% and 15.0% of adverts respectively. Customer Service 14.2% Financial skills (budgeting and accounting) and healthcare Budgeting 10.7% related skills are frequently demanded. Other business related skills are also frequently demanded, such as business Project Management 9.2% development, project management and stakeholder Sales 7.8% management. Teaching 7.3%

The skills that feature most frequently align with some of the Stakeholder Management 5.8% more resilient sectors to the COVID economic downturn, such Accounting 5.7% as ‘Information and Communication’ , ‘Energy Production’ and ‘Finance and Insurance’. Business Development 5.7% ‘Soft’ and general employability skills are frequently mentioned in vacancies (for example Teamwork/ Collaboration) Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) 4.8% theses are often transferrable between sectors and jobs. This highlights their importance for those out of work. Working With Patient And/Or Condition: Many skills fall somewhere in the middle between hard and Mental Health 4.7% soft. For example, Project Management is a frequently sought SQL 4.5% after skill, which draws on a combination of soft skills and hard, subject specific knowledge. Software Development 4.1% Note: Web-scraping data (Labour Insight) gives us an indication Customer Contact 4.1% of skills demand from job adverts. Given that jobs with higher Cleaning 4.1% turnover (for example, hospitality) recruit more often due to Scheduling 4.0% churn in roles, this should be treated indicatively only. Procurement 3.8% JavaScript 3.7% * Out of a total of 12,840 postings

Source: Labour Insight (BurningGlass) 26 Transferrable and commonly sought Skills

From the evidence available, demand appears to be Top Occupations Advertised (January 2021) strong for individuals with technology skills, as well as skills in healthcare, and business. Occupation Job Postings Many more traditional, more vocational roles also Programmers and software experience demand, such as those in healthcare, development professionals 772 teaching assistants and education professionals and Nurses 437 carers. Key areas of high-demand skills include:

(1) STEM subjects – these are the basis of many Sales related occupations 363 technological jobs.

(2) Digital/technology skills – these are applicable both Managers and proprietors in within the important and resilient IT, creative and digital sectors, as well as in a variety of other jobs other services 347 such as finance and investment roles. (3) Business skills – business related skills such as sales Care workers and home carers 306 and management are applicable across industry and see consistent demand. IT business analysts, architects (4) Specific vocations – training for specific jobs and systems designers 295 currently in demand (based on evidence), for example warehouse operatives and HGV drivers, Marketing and sales directors 286 care workers, teachers and nurses.

Source: Emsi Economic Modelling 27 Apprenticeships

Adverts with the word ‘apprenticeship’ experienced a spike in postings leading up to July in the years 2017, 2018 and 2019, in line with the end of the academic year. In 2020, we have seen the opposite happen, with a downward trend in postings. This has started to reverse in the months since August, with increases in postings seen every month since. Sector groups have highlighted the difficulties they are facing regarding keeping on current apprentices, hiring new ones, and the trade offs between both. (Note – totals are not comparable to other job postings slides, as a different software is used to obtain apprenticeship postings).

Source: Labour Insight (BurningGlass) 28 APPENDIX Regional Specialisms

Location GVA National The West of England has some specialist Sector Quotient % of GVA Quotient Change % industries, which employ more people Vehicle and Defence Technology 1.75 2.79% 1.73 2% proportionally than the national average, as show by the Location Quotient (LQ). For example, Civil Engineering 1.45 4.89% 1.30 6% Vehicle and Defence Technology has an LQ of 1.75, Utility 1.4 1.61% 0.78 -3% meaning this industry is 1.75 larger than the UK Education and Knowledge Creation 1.38 2.74% 1.04 0% average for an area of the same size. Government 1.36 6.00% 1.36 4% Looking at this alongside the proportion of GVA Local Environmental Services 1.21 0.71% 1.20 6% these industries deliver, we can see some areas of Creative 1.19 1.72% 0.71 4% specialisation that deliver a significant proportion Property Development 1.14 6.38% 0.84 -1% of the GVA, for example: Construction Products and Services 1.14 0.21% 1.01 -1% • Civil Engineering Financial and Legal Services 1.1 9.80% 0.97 -8% • Education and Knowledge Creation Printing and Publishing 1.08 1.14% 1.15 -7% Digital 1.07 4.98% 0.93 -6% • Creative Health and Care 1.07 8.44% 1.00 2% • Financial and Legal Services Sports and Leisure 1.05 1.15% 0.65 3% Metalworking Technology 1.04 0.56% 1.32 4% • Digital Passenger Transport 1.03 0.64% 1.09 -1% Food and Beverage 1.02 4.89% 0.87 2% Automotive Services 1.01 1.85% 0.96 -2% 30 Source: EMSI ‘Strength Finder’ Tool, based on ONS ASHE and BRES Data Employment Rate – Time Series

• The employment rate has remained broadly stable since March 2017. Percentage of West of England LEP residents aged 16-64 • Males have a consistently higher employment rate than currently employed females, but the gap has decreased in size since March 2017. 84

• The impact of COVID does not appear to be showing in the 82 employment rates. This is possibly due to sample size and the fact that it is a ‘year to date’ measure so could flatten trends. 80

Male 16- 78 Date (12 months to) Residents 16-64 64 Female 16-64 Apr 2016-Mar 2017 78 80.7 75.2 76 Jul 2016-Jun 2017 78.2 81.2 75.3 Oct 2016-Sep 2017 78.5 81.7 75.3 74 Jan 2017-Dec 2017 78.6 82.1 75.1 Apr 2017-Mar 2018 78.1 81.5 74.6 72 Jul 2017-Jun 2018 78.9 82.2 75.5 Oct 2017-Sep 2018 78.4 81.1 75.6 Jan 2018-Dec 2018 79.1 81.6 76.5 70 Apr 2018-Mar 2019 79.5 82.5 76.4 Jul 2018-Jun 2019 79.4 82 76.7 Oct 2018-Sep 2019 79.7 82.3 77 Jan 2019-Dec 2019 78.8 81.3 76.3 Apr 2019-Mar 2020 79 80.7 77.2 Residents 16-64 Male 16-64 Female 16-64 Jul 2019-Jun 2020 78.6 80.9 76.2 Oct 2019-Sep 2020 78.7 80.7 76.6 Source: ONS Annual Population Survey 31 Claimants Aged 16-24

As of January 2021 there were 7,070 claimants aged Percentage of residents 16-24 claiming unemployment related between 16—24; 4.6% of the population in that age benefits cohort.

8.0 This is down on the August 2020 year peak by 11.0% (or 870 claimants), however, represents an increase of 149% from March 2020 - equating to an additional 4,230 young 7.0 claimants. 6.0 All four unitary authorities in the West of England have seen a spike in the number of young claimants; ranging from 3.2% 5.0 of the cohort in Bath and North East Somerset to 6.4% in North Somerset 4.0 Despite the sharp increase in ‘young’ claimants, the rate in the West of England and the four unitary authority remains 3.0 below the national rate of 7.1%.

January 2021 Count % of age group 2.0

B&NES 1,010 3.2 1.0 3,575 Bristol 4.9 N.Som 1,150 0.0 6.4 July 2018 October January April 2019 July 2019 October January April 2020 July 2020 October January 1,335 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 S.Glos 4.5 7,070 West of England 4.6 B&NES Bristol North Somerset South Gloucestershire West of England England 423,060 England 7.1 32 Claimants Aged 50+

As of January 2021 there were 7,560 claimants aged 50+; Percentage of residents 50+ claiming unemployment related 3.8% of the population in that age cohort. benefits This is broadly in line with the rates seen since May 2020, 6.0 however represents an increase of 111% ‘older’ claimants since March 2020, equating to an additional 3,985 people. 5.0 All four unitary authorities in the West of England have seen a spike in the number of ‘older’ claimants; ranging from 2.6% of the cohort South Gloucestershire to 5.3% in Bristol. 4.0 The rate of ‘older’ claimants in the West of England remains below the national rate of 4.9%; however the rate in Bristol exceeds the national rate. 3.0

December 2020 Count % of age group 2.0

B&NES 1,140 3.3

Bristol 3,525 5.3 1.0

N.Som 1,485 3.4

S.Glos 1,410 2.6 0.0 July 2018 October January April 2019 July 2019 October January April 2020 July 2020 October January 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 West of England 7,560 3.8 B&NES Bristol North Somerset South Gloucestershire West of England England England 524,600 4.9 33 Employment Rate

• In the year to September 2020, the employment rate for the Employed Rate West of England was 78.7%; higher than the national rate at Group 76.0%. All - aged 50+ 179,500 44.1

• Working age males had an employment rate of 80.7%, 4.1 All - aged 16-24 84,500 61.0 percentage points greater than the rate for working age females. All - aged 16-64 584,800 78.7

• COVID is expected to reduce the employment rate, but the sample size of the Annual Population Survey as well as its Males - aged 50+ 91,900 47.4 ‘year to date’ measurement of the data is thought to be stopping this showing significantly at a regional level Males - aged 16-24 47,100 60.0

• Time series analysis and local authority analysis available in Males - aged 16-64 306,300 80.7 the appendix Females - aged 50+ 87,600 41.2

Female - aged 16-24 37,400 62.2

Females - aged 16-64 278,500 76.6

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey 2021 34 Employment Rate – Oct 2019- Sept 2020

West of Bath and North South Group England LEP East Somerset Bristol, City of Gloucestershire England

Employment rate - aged 50+ 44.1 43.3 45.8 44.3 42.7

Employment rate - aged 16-24 61.0 60.6 55.0 65.7 53.1

Employment rate males - aged 50+ 47.4 48.3 48.1 47.0 47.0

Employment rate males - aged 16-24 60.0 63.1 55.4 59.5 52.8

Employment rate females - aged 50+ 41.2 38.6 43.5 41.9 38.8

Employment rate females - aged 16-24 62.2 58.0 54.4 72.7 53.4

Employment rate - aged 16-64 78.7 79.7 75.8 81.6 76.0

Employment rate males - aged 16-64 80.7 84.5 76.8 82.6 79.5

Employment rate females - aged 16-64 76.6 74.8 74.6 80.5 72.4 Source: ONS Annual Population Survey; 35 Note: All data relates covers the 12 month period up to September 2020 Indices of Multiple Deprivation – education deprivation Local Authority District name (2019) Ward LSOA in Ward 20% LSOA in Ward 10%

Bath and North East Somerset Combe Down 1 1 Bath and North East Somerset Keynsham North 1 0 Bath and North East Somerset Keynsham South 1 0 Bath and North East Somerset Peasedown 1 1 Bath and North East Somerset Radstock 1 0 Bath and North East Somerset Southdown 1 1 Bath and North East Somerset Twerton 4 4 Bath and North East Somerset Westfield 1 0 Bristol, City of Ashley 2 0 Bristol, City of Filwood 9 7 Bristol, City of Frome Vale 1 1

Bristol, City of Hartcliffe and Withywood 12 12

Bristol, City of Henbury and Brentry 3 2

Bristol, City of Hengrove and Whitchurch Park 5 2 Bristol, City of Hillfields 3 1 Bristol, City of Horfield 1 0 Bristol, City of Knowle 3 3 Bristol, City of Lawrence Hill 7 5 Bristol, City of Lockleaze 2 2 Bristol, City of Southmead 5 3

36 Indices of Multiple Deprivation – education deprivation cont.

Local Authority District name (2019) Ward LSOA in Ward 20% LSOA in Ward 10%

Bristol, City of St George Central 2 0 Bristol, City of Stockwood 2 2 Bristol, City of Stoke Bishop 1 0 Bristol, City of Windmill Hill 1 0

North Somerset Weston-super-Mare Central 2 1

North Somerset Weston-super-Mare Mid Worle 1 0

North Somerset Weston-super-Mare Milton 2 0

North Somerset Weston-super-Mare South 6 6

North Somerset Weston-super-Mare Winterstoke 1 0 South Gloucestershire Dodington 1 0 South Gloucestershire Emersons Green 1 0 South Gloucestershire Kings Chase 2 1 South Gloucestershire Oldland Common 1 0 South Gloucestershire Parkwall 2 2 South Gloucestershire Patchway 3 1 South Gloucestershire Rodway 3 0 South Gloucestershire Staple Hill 2 1 South Gloucestershire Thornbury South and Alveston 1 0 South Gloucestershire Yate Central 1 0 South Gloucestershire Yate North 1 1

37 Indices of Multiple Deprivation – employment deprivation

LSOA in Local Authority District name (2019) Ward LSOA in Ward 20% Ward 10% Bath and North East Somerset Combe Down 1 0 Bath and North East Somerset Southdown 1 0 Bath and North East Somerset Twerton 3 1 Bristol, City of Ashley 2 0

Bristol, City of Avonmouth and Lawrence Weston 5 2 Bristol, City of Bishopsworth 1 0 Bristol, City of Brislington East 2 0 Bristol, City of Brislington West 1 1 Bristol, City of Central 2 2 Bristol, City of Easton 1 0 Bristol, City of Eastville 2 0 Bristol, City of Filwood 7 4 Bristol, City of Frome Vale 2 1 Bristol, City of Hartcliffe and Withywood 11 9 Bristol, City of Henbury and Brentry 2 1 Bristol, City of Hengrove and Whitchurch Park 3 1 Bristol, City of Hillfields 2 1

38 Indices of Multiple Deprivation – employment deprivation cont.

Local Authority District name (2019) Ward LSOA in Ward 20% LSOA in Ward 10% Bristol, City of Horfield 1 0 Bristol, City of Knowle 2 2 Bristol, City of Lawrence Hill 7 6 Bristol, City of Lockleaze 2 0 Bristol, City of Southmead 4 1 Bristol, City of Southville 1 0

Bristol, City of St George Central 2 0 Bristol, City of Stockwood 2 2 Bristol, City of Stoke Bishop 1 0 Weston-super-Mare North Somerset Central 6 5 Weston-super-Mare North Somerset Hillside 2 2 Weston-super-Mare Mid North Somerset Worle 1 0 Weston-super-Mare North Somerset Milton 3 0

Weston-super-Mare North Somerset North Worle 1 0 Weston-super-Mare North Somerset South 7 6 South Gloucestershire Kings Chase 1 0 South Gloucestershire Patchway 1 0 South Gloucestershire Staple Hill 2 0 39