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3.14 Topographic and Synoptic Influences on Cold Season Severe Weather Events in California

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3.14 Topographic and Synoptic Influences on Cold Season Severe Weather Events in California 3.14 TOPOGRAPHIC AND SYNOPTIC INFLUENCES ON COLD SEASON SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS IN CALIFORNIA Ivory J. Small* and Greg Martin NOAA/NWS, San Diego, CA Steve LaDochy Department of Geography and Urban Analysis California State University, Los Angeles CA Jeffrey N. Brown Department of Geography California State University, Northridge CA 1. INTRODUCTION Also during this time, a tornado occurred in the city of Poway, about 30 km (20 miles) northeast of downtown Understanding and forecasting severe weather in San Diego (SAN). In this case, as opposed to cases California continues to be a challenge for forecasters where waterspouts move onshore as small tornadoes, as well as for researchers. Rugged terrain coupled with this tornado formed on a cloud band that extended oceanic influences are key components of the forecast downwind from the islands (basically an “island effect” problem. (Figs. 1 and 2). Investigators have been able or “IE” tornado), and did not experience any time as a to compare and contrast severe weather events in waterspout. At the surface, open cell convection California with those that occur in the midwest. covered much of the Southern California Bight Region. Halvorson (1970) noted that in Southern California, at A weak California Bight Coastal Convergence Zone times, tornadoes formed during conditions that were (CBCCZ) had formed around Point Conception (Small, markedly different than conditions normally seen during 1999b). There was even an Island Effect band tornado outbreaks in the midwest. Hales (1985) downwind of the Channel Islands (just south of SBA), investigated the torna do problem in the Los Ang eles extending inland over Orange County (SNA). To the Basin, connecting the effects of enhanced helicity in the north of Orange County, the low level moisture had Basin to the enhanced frequen cy, co mpared to other been swept out of the northwest erly flow at the lower areas in California. Monteverdi and Quadros (1994) levels by the Santa Ynez mountains, but was still also looked at rotational parameters as well as largely unaffected west of the CBCCZ. As the day convective parameters during a study of northern and progresses, the central California tornadoes. Blier and Batten (1994) compiled a climatology of California tornadoes, and Ladochy and Brown (submitted) added other severe weather events for a more complete picture of California severe weather. In this paper, we take a look at synoptic and mesoscale forcings that can result in favorable conditions for the development of severe weather in California. Case studies will be presented to show the effects of terrain on the development of a tornado, funnel clouds, golf-ball sized hail, microburst winds, and a line of waterspouts. Composite maps for the State of California will be included to show the condi tions generally associ ated wi th sever e weather statewide, with some discussion on the difference between those that produce tornadoes and those that do not. 2. POWAY TORNADO Between 1730 UTC and 1800 UTC on 10 November 2000 precipitation bands were generated by the islands. This phenomena is known locally as “Island Effect” (Fox 1978; Small 1999a). ____________________________________________ *Corresponding author address: Ivory J. Small, FIG. 1. Map of California showing the 4 areas. NOAA/ NWS San Diego. 11440 W . Bernardo Ct ., Ste. 230, San Diego, CA 92127-1643; e-mail; [email protected] FIG.2. Map showing the terrain of southern California. FIG. 3. 1200 UTC 10 November 2000 NKX raob FIG.4. 0000 UTC 11 November 2000 NKX raob FIG. 5. 1745 UTC 10 November 2000 visible satellite imagery bands, as they are m ade up of more cellular, separated elements when the winds are fairly strong, and organize into a continuous lines of convective elements when the winds weaken (similar to the transition from open cell convection to horizontal roll convection behind a cold front). The 1745 UTC 10 November 2000 1 km visible imagery (Fig. 5) showed the tornadic cell. It appeared to be due to the interaction of a cell that developed on an IE band generated by San Clemente Island with an IE band generated by Santa Catalina Island. The bands connecting the tornadic cell and the islands can be seen in the visible imagery. Also the midday surface heating had resulted in rapid development at about 1800 UTC (also this is about the time that IE bands normally experience rapid strengthening). By 1930 UTC (not shown) a train-track pattern had developed downwind of San Clemente Island. This train track pattern (two convective bands FIG. 6. 2045 UTC 10 November 2000 visi ble with a cloud free zone) generally forms when the lifting satellite imagery. condensation level (LCL) is quite low. (When the LCL is as low or lower than that of the higher terrain on an low level winds [at approximately 1000 meters (3000 island, the dual band train track patt ern wil l often feet) and below] fall below about 10 ms-1 (20 knots) develop). This usually occurs overnight. Also, like the (see Figs. 3 and 4). This results in changes for IE Santa Ynez Mountains, there is a reduction in clouds downwind of an island, with shear zones on either side of the island, resulting in convection along the shear lines. Usually daytime convection indicates a very moist and unstable airmass at the lower levels. This can also be seen on the NKX raobs at 1200 UTC 10 November 2000 and 0000 UTC 11 November 2000 (Figs 3 and 4). It has been noted that when a strong cold front passes, open cell convection develops, and may also result in a strong CBCCZ, but conditions are not yet favorable for the development of easily identifiable, linear, well organized IE bands in the visible satellite imagery, (until heating results in a well mixed boundary layer, higher LCL, low level inverted V sounding profile, and a single band pattern). At night the low level airmass becomes more moist with only a few degrees difference between the temperature and dewpoint below the height of the highest island peaks. This also corresponds to a low LCL, that is lower than the highest terrain on the island. This profile is usually associated with an increase in convection over the FIG. 7. 1652 UTC 15 April 1998 KNKX composite ocean at night, and dual IE bands developing reflectivity. downwind from an island, with a cloud free zone between them. In thi s case, a trai n - track pattern does 4. TERRAIN-FORCED SEVERE HAIL EVENT form briefly during the day. The 2045 UTC 10 November 2000 1 km visible imagery (Fig. 6) shows At 2300 UTC 5 Ma rch 2000 a terrain-forced well developed IE bands extending downwind from both thunderstorm produced golf-ball sized hail over the San Santa Catalina Island and San Clemente Island. The Bernardino Mountains southeast of Lake Arrowhead. train-track pattern is a bit more discernable due to the The pattern was a very cold upper level low over the lack of sm all cumulus do wnwind, especiall y in the lee area. At 2207 UTC 5 Ma rch 2000 a comm a-sha ped of Santa Catalina Island and the pattern evolves into a bow echo was moving east toward the San Bernardino single island band downwind from an island by midday. Mountains (not shown). The bow echo contained cells The bands continued well into the night. There is with 55-60 dbz echoes, but the VIL was only about 9, even a well developed band down wind of Palos Verdes and the VIL density was well below the Amburn and Peninsula [(500 m (1500 foot) peak near LAX], Wolf (1996) threshold of 3.5. No hail was reported. By extending over Orange County. [This feature is also 2252 UT C 5 Marc h 2000 a severe thunderstorm formed suspected of being a potential tornado producer (no over the mountains. The VIL peaked at 15. There was tornadoes wer e produced during this event, however a strong, fairly broad reflectivity core including about 14 1.25 cm (½ inch) hail did develop over Orange County pixels of 50 dBZ or more extending downwind about 6 later in the evening]. miles, with 3 pixels of 55 dBZ. Spotters reported golf ball sized hail. The storm VILs peaked at 15 with this 3. TERRAIN FORCED FUNNEL CLOUDS cell. VILs in the mid teens or stronger with a broad reflectivity core [possibly about 7 km (4 miles) of 50 At approximately 1657-1701 UTC 15 April 1998 2 dBZ in the direction of storm movement, including a funnel cloud report s were received (from the SAN area few pixels of 55 dBZ], along with a freezing level of and from CRQ) The 1200 UTC 15 April 1998 NKX 1800 m (6000 feet) or less have proven to be prolific raob ( not shown) showed a condit ional ly uns table, producers of large hail in southern California, especially nearly saturated post-frontal flow with a light northwest if a steady state, well developed updraft/downdraft surface wind. The flow was unidirectional and steadily couplet and/or mesocyclone can be seen via radar. increasing with height for unidirectional shear. The following day another thunderstorm fitting at least Mesoscale cellular convection was occurring over the some of thes e characteri stics produced golf-b all size outer waters . Enhanced li nes of convect ion wer e noted hail near SNA in Orange County. The maximum VIL southeast of Santa Catalina (AVX) and San Clemente was 20, and the VIL density peaked at less than 3.5. (NUC) Islands. The lines formed overnight, and a cloud-free region was apparent. There were showers 5. TERRAIN - FORCED MICROBURST EVENT with small hail.
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