Initial Determinants of Mexican Mass Migration David Escamilla-Guerrero
[email protected] London School of Economics November 8, 2018 Abstract The paper addresses the determinants of the Mexican-US migration flow in its begin- nings (1884-1910). Exploiting an original data set based on individual border crossings from 1906 to 1908, I present for the first time, the spatial distribution of the flow at the local level. The micro data reveal that Mexican and American historiography misrepresented the composition of the flow regarding the immigrant’s locations of birth and last residence. Contrary to previous literature, most immigrants came from the border states rather than from the central plateau of Mexico. In addition, internal migration was not the main mechanism to cross the border since 60 percent of the flow was characterized by direct emigration to the United States. The quantitative assessment reveals that market potentials and Mexican immigrant networks in the US were the main pull factors rather than the US-Mexico wage gap. On the other hand, differences in living standards across Mexico were the main push factor. Despite their importance for the Mexican economy, railways had a limited effect on the migration flow during the Age of Mass Migration. Keywords: labor migration, railways, institutions, Mexico JEL Classification Numbers: N36, N76, F22, J61 Acknowledgments: I am especially grateful to my PhD supervisors Eric Schneider and Joan Rosés for their guidance and invaluable comments. I thank Chris Minns, Zachary Ward, Neil Cummins, Alfonso Cabreros-Zurita, León Fernández-Bujanda and Mattia Bertazzini for their extensive feedback; and Daniela Gutiérrez and Marco Villeda for their assistance on the data transcription.