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Red Footprints in Gilgit-Baltistan

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Red Footprints in Gilgit-Baltistan D W LAN ARFA OR RE F S E T R U T D N IE E S C CLAWS VI CT N OR ISIO Y THROUGH V CLAWS Red Footprints in Gilgit-Baltistan: Issue Brief China’s Expanding Presence in PoK n Monika Chansoria denial through the Xinhua News Agency, the official press agency of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The debate around the China-Pak axis and that of the However, Jiang Yu, the Chinese Foreign Ministry relationship between the ‘all-weather friends’ has drawn spokesperson, did not provide what could be described concern from the regional players, most significantly, as a ‘denial’ of PLA troop presence in the region, India. Cementing the ties further, Chinese President Hu but chose to comment upon the larger dimension of Jintao cast light on the decades-old strategic partnership, attempts being made by a few to fabricate stories so as and characterised the relationship between Beijing and to jeopardise China-Pakistan or China-India relations. Islamabad as one that was “higher than the mountains, Subsequently, Pakistan stated that China had sent in deeper than the oceans.” a “humanitarian team” to the Gilgit-Baltistan area in As recent reports seem to suggest, a subtle move order to assist in flood relief operations. by Pakistan to allow increased Chinese activity in the strategic area of Gilgit-Baltistan has added fuel to the The Gilgit-Baltistan Region: Augmenting fire that threatens to alter the existing security scenario in the region. According to a report published in The Military Preparedness? New York Times in August 2010, an estimated 7,000- Officially known as Gilgit-Baltistan, the 11,000 soldiers of the Chinese People’s Liberation region is the northernmost part of PoK and December 2010 22, No. Army (PLA) were reportedly deployed in the Gilgit- was earlier referred to as the “Northern Baltistan region of Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). Areas” in Pakistan. Situated between Described as an ‘influx’ of PLA soldiers in the Gilgit- the Hindu Kush and Karakoram range Baltistan region, Selig S Harrison, a noted South Asia of mountains in the north and western observer, termed the development as the unfolding Himalayas in the south, it consists of seven of “a quiet geopolitical crisis” in the Himalayan districts, namely Gilgit, Skardu, Diamir, borderlands of northern Pakistan. Expressing Ghizer, Astore, Ghanchi and Hunza Nagar, apprehension about the fluid security situation in the bordering Xinjiang in China, the Afghan region, Harrison had previously commented, “…The Pamirs in the north, and a 480-km-long potential reality that an independent Kashmir could Line of Control (LoC) in the south. end up as another permanent sanctuary for radical In August 2009, Pakistan’s government extremist terrorist organisations, given the jehadi granted ‘self-rule’ to the region by nature of these groups…” virtue of approving the “Gilgit-Baltistan Since the publication of this report, speculation Empowerment and Self Governance has been rife in South Asia, forcing China to issue a Order”, thereby making provisions The Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), New Delhi, is an autonomous think tank dealing with national security and conceptual aspects of land warfare, including conventional and sub-conventional conflict and terrorism. CLAWS conducts research that is futuristic in outlook and policy-oriented in approach. Website: www.claws.in Contact us: [email protected] D W LAN ARFA OR RE F S E T R U T D N IE E S C CLAWS V IC TO ION 2 RY VIS THROUGH CLAWS Red Footprints... for an elected legislative assembly and an elected Afghanistan, India and Pakistan come within 250 government. However, it did not grant the region km of each other. China and Pakistan have agreed to the status of the country’s fifth province. It would allow market access for bilateral trade in 11 service be important to mention here that Pakistan has been sectors as they intensify efforts to increase border in illegal occupation of the Northern Areas since trade through the Karakoram Highway. By means of a 1947, given that the erstwhile Gilgit Agency forms an Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed in June integral part of the undivided princely state of Jammu 2006 between China’s state-owned Assets Supervision and Kashmir (J&K), which belongs to India. and Administration Commission and the National In addition to the strategic importance that it has Highway Authority of Pakistan, it was decided that the for Pakistan, PoK holds immense significance for China Karakoram Highway would further be widened from as well, in its aim of stretching its strategic footprint. 10 metres to 30 metres, with its operational capacity This, in turn, can be linked to China’s infrastructure going up three-fold. During President Asif Ali Zardari’s development in Tibet so as to consolidate its hold over visit to China in July 2010, an agreement was signed the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) by means of between the China Road and Bridge Corporation roads, railways, bridges, airports, waterways, energy (CRBC) and the National Highway Authority storage, and communication networks, including wired of Pakistan for upgrading and widening of the (fibre optics) and wireless communications. Karakoram Highway Phase-2, connecting the Thakot In this context, special reference should be made bridge to Sazin, and with the China Gezhouba Group to the region’s Lhasa-Kashgar/Aksai Chin/Xinjiang International Engineering Company Ltd for widening Highway, commonly referred to as China’s Western the Jaglot-Skardu road. Constructed to accommodate Highway, in that it connects Xinjiang to Tibet, heavy vehicles in extreme weather conditions, the by linking Kashgar and Lhasa (3,105 km). From repair and upgradation of the highway is slated to be Quilanaldi, the road branches off to the 15,397 ft- completed in 2012. high Khunjerab Pass and subsequently becomes the As far as China is concerned, the Karakoram Karakoram Highway right upto Gilgit. The Khunjerab Highway is integral to keep Pakistan’s military Pass straddles the border between China and PoK and strength sustained against India. Keeping India is located approximately 270 km from Gilgit. Also, engaged through the channel of ‘spoiler state’ Pakistan Beijing and Islamabad plan to link the Karakoram has been Beijing’s foreign policy objective for a long Highway to Gwadar in southwestern Baluchistan time. The ongoing development projects in the Gilgit- through the Chinese-built Gwadar-Dalbandin railway, Baltistan region, which are of strategic significance which extends up to Rawalpindi. The 1,300-km-long with regard to the India-China-Pakistan triangle, are Karakoram Highway connects Pakistan’s Northern testament to this intent. Indian concerns on China’s Areas with Kashgar in China’s Xinjiang province. growing connectivity with Pakistan by means of The significance of the Karakoram Highway is in linkages through the occupied territory of J&K have the fact that it cuts through the zone between Asia already been placed on record in the 2008-09 Annual and the Indian subcontinent, where China, Tajikistan, Report of the Ministry of Defence (tabled in the Rajya Sabha). The report states that “… enhancing connectivity with Pakistan through the territory of Jammu and Kashmir, illegally occupied by China and Keeping India engaged through the Pakistan, will have direct military implications for channel of ‘spoiler state’ Pakistan has India.” been Beijing’s foreign policy objective Further, there is a large number of lateral roads leading to passes on the Indian border. The PLA troops for a long time. are speculated to be providing crucial assistance to as D W LAN ARFA OR RE F S E T R U T D N IE E S C CLAWS VI CT N O SIO 3 CLAWS RY VI THROUGH many as 767 development projects funded by China in China is expected to account for the Gilgit-Baltistan region, which include construction 80 percent of total infrastructure of dams, bridges, roads (including the construction, maintenance and expansion of the Karakoram spending in the entire East Asian Highway). This, in turn, would facilitate Beijing to region from 2006 to 2010. transport cargo and oil tankers from eastern China to Pakistan’s ports at Gwadar, Pasni and Ormara in Baluchistan just east of the Persian Gulf in 48 hours – thus, lessening the dependence and vulnerability of and China during President Zardari’s visit to China the oil supply by way of tankers from the Gulf through in August 2009. The estimated cost of the proposed the Strait of Malacca. Bunji Dam is $7 billion with a purported capacity to generate 7,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity. The China’s Infrastructure Projects in deal has been undertaken on a build-operate-transfer basis, with the entire investment made available by Gilgit-Baltistan China. Significantly, the Bunji project is just one of the Infrastructure development is considered to be eight hydel projects that are to be constructed. the foundation of a nation’s economic rise and a Moreover, Islamabad is also undertaking determining factor as far as competing in a globalised construction on the $12.6 billion Diamer-Bhasha world is concerned. China seeks to facilitate migration Dam, which will have the capacity to generate from rural to urban life not just within its territory, 4,500 MW of electricity per day. Work on the dam but beyond. According to a study conducted by is already underway and is slated for completion in Morgan Stanley in February 2009, corroborating a 2016. The dam is proposed on the Indus river – 165 2005 World Bank study, China is expected to account km downstream of Gilgit and 40 km downstream for approximately 80 percent of total infrastructure of Chilas. China has agreed to grant Pakistan $121 spending in the entire East Asian region from 2006 to million supplier credit to establish a link line between 2010, which translates to approximately nine percent the Karakoram Highway and the Bhasha Dam site of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – or nearly $350 to help transport heavy machinery needed for its billion annually.
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