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Application of Weather Forecasts in Farm Management Decisions: the Case of Iran

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Application of Weather Forecasts in Farm Management Decisions: the Case of Iran J. Agr. Sci. Tech. (2021) Vol. 23(3): 487-498 Application of Weather Forecasts in Farm Management Decisions: The Case of Iran L. Parsi1 and H. Maleksaeidi1* ABSTRACT Weather forecasts have potential for improving adaptation and resilience of agricultural systems to climate changes; however, there is still uncertainty on the factors affecting the use of this information in farm management decisions. This survey study was conducted on the application of weather information by 213 farmers selected through a stratified random sampling technique in 21 rural areas of Veys, in Khuzestan Province. The results indicated that perception of the reliability of weather information providers, availability of weather forecast information, self-efficacy, and subjective norm were the key drivers for using weather forecast information in the farm management decisions. Based on the results, confidence to the information providers was low among farmers. In addition, social norm about using weather information in practice was not strong in the study area. The results of the study highlighted the need for improving beliefs and values of farmers and their communities about the importance of using weather forecast information for adaptation to climate change. Keywords: Adaptation to climate change, Agricultural decision making, Weather threats. INTRODUCTION live in the arid and semi-arid regions of developing countries and are vulnerable to Agricultural production is significantly climate change due to lack of facilities affected by extreme temperature events (Biglari et al., 2019; Erena et al., 2019; (Jamshidi et al., 2018; Bijani et al., 2017; Trinh et al., 2018; Kumar et al., 2016; Hatfield and Prueger, 2015; Zhang et al., Maleksaeidi and Karami, 2013; Altieri and 2017; Chen et al., 2016), the variation in the Nicholls, 2017). In such a situation, it is rainfall patterns (Khatri-Chhetri et al., 2017; important to empower farmers in order to Crane et al., 2011), wind speed trends make the right management decisions on the (Sharratt et al., 2015), and climate disasters farm for withstanding climate changes, Downloaded from jast.modares.ac.ir at 11:05 IRST on Tuesday September 28th 2021 such as floods and droughts (Yu et al., 2014; adapting to these changes, and improving Maleksaeidi et al., 2016). Based on the their resilience capacity to mitigate the statistical estimates, the loss of yield due to impacts of such changes (FAO, 2014). climate change could be over 35% for rice, Many authors including Roudier et al. 20% for wheat, 60% for maize and 13% for (2014), Kolawole et al. (2014), Takle et al. barely, depending on the region and the (2014), Morton et al. (2017), and Nidumolu severity of changes (Khatri-Chhetri et al., et al. (2018) have emphasize that the 2017). This drop in agricultural productivity capability to forecast climate changes on a has led to increased poverty and food seasonal or shorter time scale, adoption of insecurity in the world, particularly among information disseminated from these marginalized and subsistence farmers who forecasts and regulating agricultural 1 Department of Agricultural Economic and Extension, College of Agriculture, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Islamic Republic of Iran * Corresponding author; e-mail: [email protected] 487 _______________________________________________________________ Parsi and Maleksaeidi practices according to this information are the second-largest economic sector in Iran the key points for building resilience and that provides employment opportunities for adaptation to climate change threats. For 23% of the country's population and supplies example, in 1992, when the Brazilian 80% of the country's food (Mohammadian government warned farmers about the Mosammam et al., 2016), various studies occurrence of the El Niño and provided have indicated significant impacts of climate them free drought tolerant seeds, the country change on agricultural productivity in Iran. witnessed an increase in the agricultural For instance, Nassiri et al. (2006) estimated productivity as a result of farmers' that by 2025, with an increase of 2.7°C in adaptation to this phenomenon (Patt et al., the average temperature, the average yield of 2005). Generally, a precise prediction of rainfed wheat - as one of the most important climate change gives farmers an opportunity cereals in Iran (Mohammadian Mosammam to approach weather threats, allows them et al., 2016)- would be reduced by 18%. In enough time to prepare for changes, make addition, based on a simulation, Moradi et informed decisions and tailor their al. (2014) estimated that if no adaptation management activities to these changes strategy were applied, the corn yield would (Petersen and Fraser, 2001; Losee and drop between 1 and 42% by 2100 due to Joslyn, 2018). climate change. Overall, without paying Over the past two decades, advances in attention to the adaptation strategies, climate technology have made it possible to improve change would limit agricultural production the quality and lead-time of weather in different areas of Iran (Karimi et al., forecasts and their interpretations (Kusunose 2018). In such circumstances, providing and Mahmood, 2016; Kenkel and Norris, weather forecasts and using them in practice 1995). Theoretically, with increasing is crucial for farmers to prepare for climate uncertainty in weather and climate patterns, changes and adaptation to these changes it is expected that the value of weather (Losee and Joslyn, 2018). information for farmers will increase and, Farmer's decision to rely on weather under an ideal management scenario, we see forecast information is likely a function of more application of such information in many factors (Kusunose and Mahmood, decision making (Kusunose and Mahmood, 2016). These include availability of weather 2016). However, lack of sufficient studies forecasts (Changnon, 2004; Frisvold and on the adoption of weather information in Murugesan, 2013; Artikov et al.. 2006), practice by users, particularly by poor confidence in accuracy of these forecasts resource and vulnerable farmers who live in (Kusunose and Mahmood, 2016; Kox et al., Downloaded from jast.modares.ac.ir at 11:05 IRST on Tuesday September 28th 2021 developing countries such as Iran, has led to 2015; Hu et al. (2006); Changnon (2004) a lack of scientific evidence for this issue and Artikov et al. (2006)), trust in the (Haigh et al., 2018). reliability of the sources making the Iran is one of the developing countries forecasts (Kox et al., 2015; Artikov et al., where agricultural production faces great 2006; Hu et al., 2006), perception of the deal of uncertainties in climate. The main forecasts’ usability (Changnon, 2004; characteristic of arid or semi-arid climate of Sharifzadeh et al., 2010), subjective norms Iran is low rainfall and high evaporation (Artikov et al., 2006; Sharifzadeh et al., (Amiri and Eslamian, 2010). The average 2010), and self-efficacy such as ability for annual rainfall of 224 to 275 mm has made interpreting and understanding weather Iran one of the driest countries in the world forecasts and having adequate motivation for (Keshavarz et al., 2013). In addition, the using theses information (Articov et al., average temperature in this country is 2006; Hu et al., 2006). In this regard, access predicted to increase from 1.5 to 4°C, if the to scientific evidence about using weather CO2 concentration doubles by 2100 (Amiri information in practice by farmers is and Eslamian, 2010). While agriculture is necessary to clear the value of climate 488 Weather Forecasts in Farm Management Decisions _______________________________ information for farmers as the main on-farm wheat yields between 2006-2010 as a result decision makers (Roudier et al., 2014). In of drought. Based on this, in 2010, Jihad-e- addition, an understanding of the factors Agriculture Organization of Khuzestan affecting the application of weather Province converted 130 hectares of land information by farmers in agricultural from the city of Veys to a training site and decision making may create a base to organized training courses in various fields, formulize policy commendations that can including the use of weather information for increase the use of this information among farmers. However, investigations have not farmers, thereby not only reducing their been conducted on farmers in the area about vulnerability to climate change but also the the use of meteorological information in costs involved in producing this information agricultural decisions, as well as their level due to its use in practice. of trust in and access to this information. Therefore, the aim of this study was to Accordingly, in this study, Veys city was understand Iranian farmers' use of weather selected as the study area. Figure 1 shows information, as well as factors affecting the the geographic location of the study area. use of this information in farm management decision by the studied farmers. Survey of Farmers MATERIALS AND METHODS A survey was conducted on farmers in the rural areas of Veys. The total number of Study Area farmers in the study area was 480. The sample size was determined as 213, based Veys is the capital of Veys District in Bavi on Cochran (1963) formula. This number of County, Khuzestan Province, southwest of farmers was randomly selected based on Iran. This area is a part of Karun River stratified random sampling from 21 villages. Basin (Molaali and Babaee, 2017). Veys has Each village was considered as a stratum fertile fields, large gardens, and vast modern and then farmers were randomly selected in farms. Based on the country divisions in proportion to the farmers’ population in each 2016, Veys consists of 30 villages, 9 of village. Farmers were interviewed which have been vacant for various reasons, individually through a structured mainly climate disasters including drought questionnaire. Face validity of the (Statistical Center of Iran, 2016). While questionnaire was confirmed by a panel of experts of climatology and agricultural Downloaded from jast.modares.ac.ir at 11:05 IRST on Tuesday September 28th 2021 Khuzestan is one of the main agricultural pillars in Iran, temperature in different parts extension and education.
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