PART II

SPATIAL CONDITIONS IN THE DANUBE SPACE

47 48 CONTENT

PART II: SPATIAL CONDITIONS IN THE DANUBE SPACE 47

4. DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURES AND DYNAMICS WITHIN THE DANUBE SPACE 53 4.1 Demographic Structure 53 (1) Population numbers cover a wide range 53 (2) Age structures tell different stories 54 (3) Ethnic homogeneity 59 4.2 Demographic Dynamics 60 (4) Divergent trends in East and West 60 (5) Substantial changes taking place with demographic determinants 61 (6) Population forecasts show no surprising results 65 (7) Significant changes in the patterns of international migration in the past decades 65 (8) Divergent patterns of international migration among the core countries 66 (9) Rural-urban flows dominate internal migration 68 (10) Cross-border migration is driven by economic reasons 69 (11) Brain drain and crowding out effects as major threats 70

5. SETTLEMENT STRUCTURES 73 5.1 Population Density 73 (12) Danube Space's periphery is more densely populated than the core area 73 5.2 Settlement Structure 74 (13) Major agglomerations 79 (14) Urban industrialisation in most of the CEECs 79 (15) Suburbanisation as a new trend in the CEECs 80 (16) Rural regions under stress 80

6. THE REGIONAL DYNAMICS OF TRANSITION 83 6.1 The Driving Forces of Regional Development 83 (17) Elements of economic transformation 83 (18) Three stages of transformation 86 (19) Adaptability on the regional scale 86 (20) Decisive determinants for the performance of "regions in transition" 87 (21) Recent trends in Foreign Direct Investment 88 (22) Where to the money goes 90

49 (23) Research and development determines future perspectives 90 (24) Regional R&D policies require networking 92 6.2 Structural Change in the Transition Process 93 (25) Trends in agriculture point out two groups of countries 94 (26) Land use patterns hint at divergent issues 97 (27) Land restitution, privatisation and investment 97 (28) Specific developments of the industrial sector 102 (29) Transformation of industry in the Core Countries 103 (30) High spatial concentration of heavy industry and mining 105 (31) Regional survey of main industries 107 (32) Services, the main driver of transformation 108 (33) Banking and insurance of utmost importance for further investment 109 (34) Tourism: considerable change with respect to markets and tourist flows 110 (35) Regional survey of tourism 112

7. REGIONAL DISPARITIES AND THEIR EVOLUTION 115 7.1 The Level of Economic Activity 115 (36) GDP differences between the Danube Space core countries still large 115 (37) Welfare gap is smaller than indicated by exchange rate based GDP 115 7.2 Regional Development Patterns 121 (38) Regional disparities expected to grow in transition countries 121 (39) Capital regions dominate economic development 125 7.3 Regional Disparities in the Core Countries 126 (40) Regional GDP data still not fully reliable 126 (41) Comparatively large but decreasing disparities in Austria 127 (42) Bulgaria: capital with the lowest growth potential of all Danube Space capitals 128 (43) A unique position for Prague 129 (44) Western Regions of Hungary most favoured 130 (45) Romania's large regions show little variation of growth 131 (46) Very strong west-east gradient in the Slovak Republic 133 (47) Quite small disparities on regional level III in Slovenia 133

8. LABOUR MARKETS AND UNEMPLOYMENT 135 (48) A number of data-related problems 135 (49) Major improvements concerning comparability: the Labour Force Survey 136

50 8.1 Employment 136 (50) Employment by sectors shows increasing shares of services 138 8.2 Unemployment 140 (51) Basic features of regional unemployment 143 (52) Youth unemployment ... 144 (53) ... as well as long term unemployment on the rise 144

9. THE ACCESSIBILITY OF THE REGIONS 149 9.1 Accessibility on the European Scale 149 (54) Potential impacts of the TINA-networks on accessibility 150 9.2 Road Networks 155 9.3 Railway Networks 156

10. ENVIRONMENTAL ENDOWMENTS OF THE REGIONS 159 10.1 Diversity of Environments 159 10.2 Natural Heritage Highlights - Biodiversity and Habitats 160 10.3 Water Resources 165 (55) Divergent patterns of sources, availability and dependencies 165 10.4 Legacies of the Socialist Era and the Risks During the Period of Economic Transition 170 (56) Air pollution 170 (57) Contaminated land 170 (58) Water pollution 171 (59) No adequate waste disposal infrastructure 171 (60) Nuclear reactor safety still doubtful 171 10.5 Risks during Economic Transition 172 (61) The transition increases pressure on certain natural endowments 172 (62) Regional survey on environmental risks 173

11. ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE NETWORKS 175 11.1 Towards Sustainability 175 (63) Danube Space major trends (1985 to 1996) 175 (64) Energy supply 176 (65) Contribution of Nuclear Power 178 11.2 Main Characteristics of the Grids 183 (66) Electricity grid - network connections 183 (67) Gas grid - network connections 183 (68) The Transgas pipeline system 184

51 11.3 Improving a Location's Economic Advantage 184 (69) Electricity: high level of connections, further investment in supply quality 184 (70) Gas infrastructure: certain adverse primary effects, overall favourable secondary effects 185 (71) Closure of mines and oil fields: a significant social issue 185 11.4 Regional Impacts of Short and Mid-term Investments 186 (72) Electricity interconnections and regional impacts 186 (73) New gas infrastructure 188

52 TABLES

Table 10 Population in the Danube Space 1996 53 Table 11 Urban and Rural Population in the Core Countries of the Danube Space 74 Table 12 Total Foreign Direct Investment in the Core Countries 1994-1997 89 Table 13 Foreign Direct Investment Stock 1994, 1997 89 Table 14 Structure of Production - Share of Sectoral Gross Value Added 1990, 1995 93 Table 15 Main Agricultural Issues by Countries 100 Table 16 Examples of Concentrations of Heavy Industry and Mining 106 Table 17 Main Tourist Indicators for the Core Countries 111 Table 18 Indicators of Standard of Living 116 Table 19 Typology of Regions under Transformation 122 Table 20 Economic Position of the Capitals 126 Table 21 Austria: Regional GDP per Capita in PPPs on NUTS II Level 128 Table 22 Bulgaria: Regional GDP per Capita (1993-1995) on the Level II - PPPs 128 Table 23 Czech Republic: Regional GDP per Capita on the Level II (1993, 1996) - in PPPs 129 Table 24 Czech Republic: Regional GDP for the new Regions 2000 on the Level III (1993, 1995) - in PPPs 130 Table 25 Hungary: Regional GDP per Capita on the Level II (1994, 1996) - in PPPs 131 Table 26 Romania: Regional GDPs on the Level II (1993-1996) - in PPPs 132 Table 27 Slovak Republic: Regional GDP on Level II (1996,1997) - in PPPs 133 Table 28 Slovenia: Regional GDP on Level III (1996) - in PPPs 134 Table 29 State and Development of the Private Sector in 1994 137 Table 30 Shares of the Main Economic Sectors 1990-1996 139 Table 31 Labour Force and Economic Activity Rates in '000's 139 Table 32 Labour Market Issues in the Core Countries 145 Table 33 Railway Transport in the Core Countries - Main Issues by Countries 157 Table 34 International Designated Areas and National Parks in Danube Space Core Countries 161

53 FIGURES

Map 12 Age Structure 1995: 0-14 years 55 Map 13 Age Structure 1995: older than 60 years 57 Map 14 Population Change 1990-1996 63 Map 15 Population: Structure and Density 1996 75 Map 16 Spatial Distribution of Population 77 Map 17 Land Use by NUTS II Regions in the Core Countries 95 Map 18 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 1996 117 Figure 1 GDP per Capita in PPPs in the Danube Space Core Countries 119 Figure 2 Development of Real GDP in the Danube Space (1989 = 100) 120 Map 19 Typology of Regions under Transition 123 Map 20 Unemployment Rate 141 Map 21 Accessibility of Agglomerations 151 Map 22 Accessibility of Population 153 Map 23 Protected Areas in the Danube Space 163 Map 24 The Main Rivers of the Danube Basin 167 Figure 3 Energy Production and Consumption in the Core Countries 1994 177 Map 25 Electricity Production in the Core Countries 179 Map 26 Nuclear Power Plants in the Danube Space 181

54 10. ENVIRONMENTAL ENDOWMENTS OF THE REGIONS

10.1 Diversity of Environments

The Danube Space encompasses a broad diversity of environments and dependent eco- systems/habitats, important reservoirs of biodiversity, much of which are endemic. While most of the Danube Space can be characterised as a continental bio-geographic region, there are alpine regions of particular value in the core Danube Space, including: the Balkan mountains in Bulgaria; the Carpathian mountains, which form an arc through Romania and up through Ukraine and along the Polish Slovak border toward the Moravian hills in the Czech Republic; the Rhodopes in southern Bulgaria; and the Transylvanian alps in Romania.

On the western periphery of the Danube Space, the Ore mountains form a border between the Czech Republic and Germany, and the Sumava mountains form a border between Germany and Austria. The Sudetes mountains run along the northern border of the Czech Republic with Poland. Furthermore, the Dinaric alps run parallel to the south-western periphery of the Danube Space. These alpine regions are not only important habitats and bird breeding grounds, but dictate the form of the ensuing river basins, most of which feed into the Danube.

The alpine areas are complemented by plain and plateau environments, including the important Pannonian region - the plain of Hungary - and also the Wallachian plain along the Bulgarian border of Romania. Key plateau environments include the Danubian plateau, which runs along the Bulgarian Romanian border, between the Balkan mountains and the Wallachian plain. Furthermore, the Moldovan plateau in North-East Romania, bordering the Republic of Moldova, follows the Prut river along with the Bessarabian plateau that is located on the Moldovan side of the Prut.

Finally, the Danube Space opens into Black Sea, while the core countries of Romania and Bulgaria form the main western coastal zone countries, with the Ukraine and Turkey offering adjoining Black Sea coastal zone borders. The Black Sea and the Danube Delta have particularly valuable, and indeed endangered environments and habitats. The Black Sea environment is particularly stressed by the conflicting uses of economic activities that include oil production, transport, wastewater discharge and heavy amounts of fishing. The Black Sea coast is of particular value to bird breeding, complementing the important bird breeding grounds to be found in the northern part of the Danube Space. Furthermore, the Carpathian mountains and an area based around the Balkan mountains are of particular importance for plants, some of which are significant endemic plant species.

163 The importance of environmental habitats and resident bio-diversity has led to many of these areas being designated as areas of particular environmental importance, defined as UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation) biosphere reserves, RAMSAR sites, nature reserves, natural parks, natural monuments, protected areas, environmental management areas and management resource areas. In the Danube Space countries, between 5% and 30% of national territory of the Danube Space core countries is designated as officially protected, though the level of protection afforded by being designated protected areas often falls short of the requirements to safeguard the environment. Demographic encroachment, agricultural practice, land transformation activities (drainage, deforestation, introduction of new plant species with subsequent effects on erosion, water logging, salination, etc.), economic development, un-sustainable tourism practices and pollution deposition burden these environments.

10.2 Natural Heritage Highlights - Biodiversity and Habitats

Within the Danube Space, the biodiversity and habitats patrimony include particularly valuable biodiversity core areas and ecological corridors, and nature development areas. Key core areas, which have predominantly a preservation function and represent the key ecological stable eco-systems of the territory include the Black Sea (for aquatic life), Danube River Basin (for birds as well as aquatic species), and the Carpathian and Balkan mountains for plant species. The river Danube is the key (hydrical) ecological corridor which, in principle, can be both terrestrial and hydrical, and has more of a dispersal and migration function that often connects the core areas.

Nature development areas include those areas where it is necessary to strengthen the nature component, given the current or historic stresses on the area, and abound throughout the Danube Space. Map 23 presents the key protected areas (Classifications I to IV and key cross- border areas) in the Danube Space. A table in the annex lists the protected areas in the Danube Space by number and size. The most pressing nature development area is the Black Sea itself where the pressures on the environment are particularly burdensome.

164 Table 34 International Designated Areas and National Parks in Danube Space Core Countries

Austria Bulgaria Czech Hungary Romania Slovak Slovenia Republic Republic

Biosphere Reserves (UNESCO Man and Biosphere Programme) Number 4 17 6 5 3 4 0 Area (000 ha) 28 25 434 129 614 203 0 World Heritage Sites Number 0 2 0 1 0 1 1 Area (000 ha) 0 41 0 0 Wetlands (RAMSAR Convention sites) Number 9 5 9 19 1 7 1 Area (000 ha) 103 3 39 150 647 26 1

Source: UNEP, 1998, World Resources 1998-1999

The key features of the natural heritage resource for each of the Danube Space core countries are presented below:

Bulgaria: Bulgaria, with its highly varied topography and climate, is one of the most biologically diverse countries in Europe, supporting 94 species of mammal, 383 species of birds, 52 species of reptiles and amphibians, 207 Black Sea and fresh water fish and thousands of invertebrate species, plants and fungi. While many of these species have economic uses if they are properly protected, all of the ecosystems are threatened by population encroachment and in many areas from pollution (though this is a secondary problem in Bulgaria).

Bulgaria has a network of protected areas covering almost 5% of territory, most of which are national parks, and strict reserves, and some smaller areas declared natural monuments, and protected historic sites. There are 17 biosphere reserves in Bulgaria, more than in any other Danube Space country. Most of these are clustered in the Rhodopes and Balkan mountains. Three are on border sites - Srebarna in the north-east on the Danube, bordering Romania; Tchouprene in the north-west near the Serbian border; and Alibotouch on the Greek border. Furthermore, two sites are on the Black Sea - Kamchia and Ouzounboudjak.

Czech Republic: The Czech nature protection strategy established a comprehensive system of protected areas. Three national parks have been established on the territory of the Czech Republic: the Šumava national park (69,030 ha - on the south-western border with Austria), the Podyjí national park (6,259 ha), and the Krkonoše national park (36,300 ha - on the north-

165 eastern border with Poland). Protected landscape areas represent the second category of ecological significant territory. Currently, there are 24 of them covering 10,274 km2.

Furthermore, 108 nature reserves and 247 natural sites have been established since 1992. There were a total of 1,656 small-scale protected areas in 1994. There are also five designated biosphere reserves, two of which are national parks - the Šumava and the Krkonoše parks. The other three are the Křivolklatsko (in the centre, west of the Czech Republic), Třebon basin (in the south), and Pálava on the southern border with Austria.

Hungary: In Hungary, there are several protected areas, covering about 5,188 km2, nearly 6% of the country's area. They include all major habitat types, the largest part of which is forested areas. All 2,245 caves are protected. Of these, 97 are intensively protected. Three national parks (Aggtelek - on the Slovak border, and Hortobágy, Kiskunsag) and two landscape protection areas (Pilis and lake Ferto - both on the Slovak border) were designed as biosphere reserves in 1979 and 1990. There are also several designed RAMSAR sites (Hortobágy, wetlands on the Tisza, Kis-Balaton).

Romania: Romania's biodiversity includes 717 vertebrates and estimated a minimum of 33,085 invertebrates. Mammals account for 102 of the vertebrates, including the reintroduced bison, and 191 fish, with special abundance in the Danube Biosphere Reserve. Insects account for 30,000 of the invertebrates, with over 2,000 spider species and 600 crustacean contributing much of the rest. Romania's flora includes more than 3,500 species of plants, 350 of which are growing on mountainous plains and more than 800 in the oak and beech tree forests. The Danube Delta is a special ecological system, with its approximately 1,150 species of plants.

Much of this diversity is found in the National Network of Protected Areas, which included 586 items that covered 4.8% of Romania's territory in 1994 and up to 810 areas in 1997. This includes three biosphere reserves, 14 national parks (in 1997, up from 12 in 1994) and one RAMSAR convention site. Other protected areas make up the rest. The main locations are east (before the Danube Delta), then along the Danube itself, and a large corridor starting on the Serbian border, following the Carpathian mountains east, then north up to the Ukrainian border.

Slovak Republic: With the area of 1,991,463 ha, Slovak Republic is one of the most forested countries in the Danube Space (41% of the Slovak area). Amongst national protected areas, of special importance are five national parks, covering 199,724 ha (4%) and sixteen protected areas in the countryside covering 660,493 ha (13%).

166 The largest national park, Tatranský národný park, is on the Polish border, as is the smallest park, Pieninski narodny park. Of the protected landscapes, a number are on the western border with the Czech Republic (Kysuce, Biele Karpaty and Záhorie), some on the northern border with Poland (Horná Orava and Kysuce), one on the Czech Republic border (Beskydy), a further one touching the Ukrainian border (Latorice) and two on the southern border with Hungary (Slovenský kras and Cerová Vrchovina). Most of the remaining parks are in the centre of the Slovak Republic. The Slovak Republic has four UNESCO MAB (Man and Bioshere) biosphere reserves - the Tatra mountains on the northern border with Poland, East Carpathians in the north-east (Polish border), Slovenský kras in the south (Hungarian border) and Pol'ana in the centre of the Slovak Republic.

Slovenia: Slovenia is a country with a rich biological diversity. About 3,000 higher plant species grow in Slovenia, of which 70 Alpine are endemic. About 53% of Slovenia's territory is covered with forest, ranking the country among the most forested in Europe. Slovenia has few protected areas and only one national park, covering 8% of the national territory. According to the natural conservation strategy, Slovenia’s protected areas cover about 20% of its territory. A new physical plan including these protected areas has been adopted in 1999.

Most of the (existing and proposed) nature parks lie on border regions, with the Triglavski narodni park bordering Austria and Italy in the west, with Kamniško-Savinjski regijski park bordering Austria in the north, Kozjanski park on the eastern border with Croatia, and the Kočevski narodni park, the Notranjski park and the Kraski regijski park in the south, which also borders Croatia.

10.3 Water Resources

(55) Divergent patterns of sources, availability and dependencies

Water resource availability and sources vary considerably between the Danube Space countries with some relatively independent neighbours, while others almost completely dependent, underlining the need for co-operation on water management. The Danube is a key source of water for many of the countries, indeed in Hungary, the river inflow from the Danube, together with other rivers flowing in from neighbouring countries presents a vital source of water. Various factors could compromise the natural resource availability in neighbouring regions and countries such as: excessive use of this water, or indeed pollution burdens through untreated or only partially treated sewage and waste water discharges; pollution burden from transport use of the Danube and pollution from run-off from non-point sources, such as pesticides and nitrates from agricultural lands, or lead from road run-off.

169 A table in the annex presents the national aggregate water input-output table for each of the Danube Space countries, presenting precipitation rates, evaporation rates, use of internal resource (e.g. underground aquifers), national inflow - to give the potential renewable resources available in each country, and the outflow rate. The level of internal resources and the relative level of inflow show the importance of trans-national and cross border co-operation in water management. This is most striking in the case of Romania, which is highly dependent on the Danube inflow for its water resources. This message is also clear in the case of Hungary, where water resources available from river inflow dwarfs domestic resources.

A summary of the natural water resources in the core Danube Space countries is presented below.

Bulgaria: Bulgaria has three main drainage areas flowing to the Danube, the Aegean Sea and the Black Sea. There are 13 major rivers. The lakes are relatively small and located in the mountains to the South and along the Black Sea coast. There are 18 major lakes and 2,100 reservoirs, with a capacity of 6 billion m3. Cross border water resource management problems occur where water has been diverted or dams constructed, for example on the river Arda, where fluctuation of the charge of the Kiprinos dam (Greece) on occasions leads to causing floods which affect Bulgarian arable land.

Czech Republic: The territory of the Czech Republic is divided into drainage basins for three seas – the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea - drained by the Labe, Odra and Morava rivers. There are 836 natural and regulated watercourses in the Czech Republic, with a total length of 76,000 km. In 1996, there were 24,144 rivers and ponds, holding a volume of 3,9 billion m3. Virtually all main watercourses flow into the territories of neighbouring countries from the Czech Republic, so that the country depends heavily on atmospheric precipitation for water resources. Annual water flow through the network of watercourses is in the region of 15 billion m3, but with high variability, ranging between 8 and 19 billion m3 depending on climatic conditions. This represents a long term annual average resource of 1,450 m3 per capita, or about one third of the European mean and one fifth of the world average.

Groundwater resources make a substantial contribution to the base flow of rivers - almost a half of all water abstracted for water supply purposes is drawn from groundwater. But useable groundwater resources on the Czech Republic territory are not uniformly distributed.

Hungary: Hungary shares drainage basins with a number of its' neighbours. Other cross border issues occur due to the high average volume of water flowing through Hungary per year - 120 billion m3 – which yields the highest level per inhabitant, transiting through the country. lake Balaton extends over a large area in the West of the country. There are two main rivers: the Danube flowing from north to south, via Budapest, and the Tisza which flows from the north-east and on into Serbia. Other large rivers include the Raba, in the west, originating in Austria, and the Kőrős and the Maros in the south-east of the country crossing the border with Romania.

170 Romania: The Danube is the longest river in Romania (1,075 km), discharging into the Black Sea through three arms: Chilia, Sulina and Braţul Sfîntul Gheorghe, which form the Danube Delta. There are 19 other main rivers, in 14 river basins. Furthermore, there are 45 main lakes, with 3,450 natural lakes in Romania as a whole.

The Danube river is the main source of water for Romania, supplying 6.5 billion m3 in 1996, out of a total abstraction of 15 billion m3, equating to around 664 m3 per capita per year. Other rivers provide much of the rest, and groundwater abstraction contributes just over 10%. The predominant role of using surface waters for water supply in Romania, contrasts with the greater reliance on groundwater abstraction in many other European countries, including other Danube states (Bulgaria relies 70% on groundwater, Slovak Republic 85%, Ukraine 50%, Hungary and Moldova 90% and Austria 99% - DPCU, 1993)

Slovak Republic: Slovak Republic is rich in rivers, the main river Danube enters the Slovak Republic in Bratislava and runs along the Slovak Hungarian border for about 100 km. Three main tributaries to the Danube are - the Morava river flows in north-western Slovakia along parts of the border to Czech Republic and Austria; the Váh and Hron river have sources in the centre of the Slovak Republic and run West then South to join the Danube by the Hungarian border; and finally, the Hornád river, which also has its source in central Slovakia, runs through Košice in East Slovakia on its way to the Tisza river in Hungary.

Natural lakes are rare, however, several hundred dam lakes exist, built for the purposes of water supply, power industry and irrigation. Furthermore, the Slovak Republic is rich in groundwater resources with the largest suppliers of groundwater situated in the Danube lowlands.

Slovenia: There are seven major river catchment areas: the Mura, Drava, Sava, Soča Dragonja, Savinja and Krka, the first 5 of which cross national boundaries. Most drain into the Danube (80% of rainwater flow), and the remainder into the Adriatic. Slovenia has abundant water resources - the average annual rainfall is 1,500 mm, but this is divided into about 3,000 mm in the west and 800 mm in the east of the country. There are seven cross-border rivers: the Mura (Austria to Croatia), the Drava (with Austria), the Sava, Kolpa and Sotla (with Croatia), the Vipava (Italy) and the Soča (Italy). It has abundant groundwater resources and water springs.

Slovenia has a hydrological system composed on torrential streams and flood plains, making it vulnerable to flooding. About 10% of lowland rivers (a stretch of 2,490 km) are regulated to provide protection against floods.

173 10.4 Legacies of the Socialist Era and the Risks During the Period of Economic Transition

The Socialist era in the Danube Space countries has left particular difficult environmental legacies for the new authorities and restructuring economy to deal with. These include:

(56) Air pollution

Air pollution hot spots - peppered throughout the Danube Space - are urban areas distinguished by the particular air pollution problems from industry with far from adequate pollution prevention and control mechanisms in place. This includes emissions of lead (e.g in the Romanian cities of Baia Mare and Copşa Mică), particulates from cement plant, heavy metals from aluminium and steel smelters. The cities have particularly poor locational quality aspects, both for population, and for the potential settlement of new industries. The impact on the population is exacerbated by the tendency to adopt Soviet-style urbanisation patterns, based on concentrated, large urban settlements. In many cases residential settlements were located directly adjacent to large industrial, and as mentioned above, heavily polluting complexes, with no consideration of the likely environmental and heath effects on local population.

(57) Contaminated land

Contaminated land hot spots also abound, including: areas of oil contaminated land, posing risk to ground water and drinking water (e.g. Ploieşti in Romania); land contaminated with heavy metals, with subsequent impacts on agricultural produce; land contaminated with pesticides, leading to pressures on plant, animal and human health; and land contaminated with nitrates and phosphates, leading to risks of water pollution and algae blooms, eutrophication which impacts fish life. In these areas, there are development restrictions, as well as a need for significant investments in clean up, a need for significant investment in new water supply infrastructure, and a need for changes of agricultural practice. The future clean up of these areas, and their return to useable brownfield site is complicated by lack of money, and importantly issues of unworkable and often incomplete systems of (retrospective) liability allocation. Estimates for the cost of clean up vary considerably, depending on the final standard of clean up. It has been estimated that in the Czech Republic, clean-up efforts required at the former Soviet military bases will require an investment of between 70 and 185 million ECU. In Hungary it has been estimated that to deal with only 20% of the 600 identified contaminated sites would require around 440 MECU, and in the Slovak Republic, clean-up efforts of 9 priority military bases is estimated to cost 40 MECU. Estimates for cleaning up oil contamination in Romania is also of the order of hundreds of millions of ECUs.

174 (58) Water pollution

Water pollution affects a great number of rivers, with some sections of certain rivers being devoid of life and dangerous for human consumption. For example in Bulgaria, the Blato river basin, with Iskâr and Blato rivers exhibits high BOD (Biological Oxygen Demand), being heavily polluted with oil and ammonia, thus requiring new waste water treatment plant (WWTP). At Alatxite, Etropole on the Iskâr, the waters are polluted with acid waters and heavy metals (Cu, Mn, Fe, Cd) from the mining industry. In the Czech Republic, at Šumperk-Olsany on the Morava, discharges from the pulp and paper mill have negative impacts on protected areas. In Romania, textile dyes from the chemical industry in Codlea pollute the Olt river basin. To address these problems, it will be necessary to change the economic and environmental management practices and the construction of new, and/or rehabilitation of existing WWTP.

(59) No adequate waste disposal infrastructure

A further Socialist legacy is the poor infrastructure created for waste disposal and management, as well as infrastructure left for water supply and management, and wastewater treatment. Part of this problem relates the fact that the price of the service for users does not actually account for the actual costs of providing the service. This has lead, in the absence of sufficient government funds, to a gradual deterioration of the infrastructure capital stock. In many areas, services are only sporadically available (in many areas, water supply is limited to only certain hours of the day). Additional problems include insufficient wastewater treatment facilities, in both number and quality, and insufficient waste management facilities, that include many landfills and unprotected dumps. The greatest environmental challenges to the Danube Space countries will require a move towards the development of infrastructure that conforms to EU standards. This requires an investment beyond the short and even medium-term ability of these countries.

(60) Nuclear reactor safety still doubtful

Nuclear power is a further particular legacy of the Socialist era, with nuclear reactor safety levels in many of the Danube Space countries causing some serious concern in the EU, and indeed in neighbouring countries within the Danube Space. Radioactive leaks in Bulgaria have caused problems in neighbouring Romania, while risk of nuclear accidents have provoked heated debates across the Austrian-Slovakian border. Radioactive leaks from Čhernobyl' in the Ukraine, have found their way into river water ways leading to the Black Sea, rendering parts of the northern coast radioactive, with ensuing impacts on fishery industries and bathing sites in the region. Furthermore, threats of new "Čhernobyl'" type accidents, with catastrophic health effects, as well as needs for resettlement, impacts on agricultural and forestry sectors are also real in the region. Without adequate measures to improve safety levels, or adequate alternative sources of energy to allow the closure of plants, these risks will continue. There are significant

175 regional development impacts not only from risks, but also through the local economic impact from the potential closure of a plant, as these stations are significant employers in their region.

10.5 Risks during Economic Transition

(61) The transition increases pressure on certain natural endowments

Economic transition has had a negative influence on regional biodiversity and wetlands protection, as it has become more difficult for governments to police protected areas. In several Danube Space countries, there has been extensive discussion on how private property-related misuse of forest resources may threaten natural resources and biodiversity management. For example, the privatisation of 70% of Slovenia's forest is leading to a great number of small forest properties, which makes it more difficult to protect them. In Hungary, where large forest areas were privatised, large forestry cuttings and log exports to Western countries are reported.

The transition period brought decreased intensity of agricultural production and decreasing trends in the use of industrial fertilisers and herbicides. Part of this is due to the partial liberalisation of the prices of these products since the late 1980's. The reduced application of these products is leading to a gradual improvement, with lesser stress on the biological diversity of ecological systems. There are, however, still many areas with pesticide contamination and with groundwater contaminated with nitrates that create ensuing health and environmental impacts.

In many Danube Space countries there is a marked contrast between traditionally farmed landscapes with a rich flora and fauna and those areas characterised by highly intensive and specialised agriculture associated with collectivism. Semi-mountanous zones for example, retain a marked richness of species and habitats based upon diverse landscapes of extensive, mixed farming and forestry and sustained by small-scale, private land use. Conversely, where there was a greater degree of collectivism, the very large and specialised farming systems that emerged are often associated with environmentally damaging agricultural practices. However, the collapse of centrally planned economies and the move to market-based systems has resulted in some extensification (less intensive use of chemicals and machinery) of these more formerly intensive systems, generating biodiversity gains.

The Socialist era did have the benefit of a working and extensive recycling infrastructure in many of the Danube Space countries. However, with the transition, many of the recycling centres have closed, and indeed, the separate collection of waste has declined considerably.

176 The transition era, with the economic restructuring and the decline in economic output, has seen local, regional and national budgets reduced, and company and private financial resources reduced. This has limited the moneys available to maintain and extend existing infrastructures - water supply, sewage systems, waste water treatment, waste collection and treatment, nature park protection, and indeed also district heating networks.

In the domain of natural heritage and biodiversity, particular factors of stress under the current situation include:

■ insufficient maintenance, protection and enforcement, reflecting lack of funding, lack of personnel, lack of training;

■ conflicting use interests, particularly with agriculture and forestry use and creation of new economic units;

■ pollution impacts, both from local sources and imports;

■ land transformation activities leading to soil erosion, water logging and salinity;

■ settlement pressures as new housing encroaches on the territories;

■ important sites not classified, allowing not even nominal protection;

■ uncertainty on property rights and liability rules, especially with the partial privatisation of lands.

(62) Regional survey on environmental risks

Bulgaria: Probably the key pressures on natural heritage sites and biodiversity in Bulgaria is the competition for use of space and the encroachment of human settlements. As Bulgaria is still more of an agricultural economy, without the heavy industry that characterises the Czech and Slovak Republics, pollution is regarded as less of a problem.

Czech Republic: Biodiversity has been markedly reduced due to pollution and unfavourable agricultural practices with heavy use of chemicals and the adopted practice of excessive field size and monocultures, covering most of agricultural terrain. Additionally, air pollution, namely acid rain, has had an adverse impact on 33% of the country's forest surface, particularly in the western border area of the Black Triangle.

Hungary: Potential threats to fauna include excessive hunting, expansion of agriculture and forestry. Uncertainties in property right assignments and the transition from state ownership to clearly defined private ownership invites exploitation of those resources.

177 Romania: Insufficient money to maintain national parks with the exception of the Danube Biosphere Reserve. The causes of forest environmental damage including: excessive drought, local and trans-frontier pollution, and adverse past sylvicultural measures.

Slovak Republic: Pollution and nature resource misuse impacts on 97% of all forests and all nature areas - bio centres, national parks and protected areas. A particular problem are acid rain impacts on forests and soil erosion. Furthermore, the responsible ministry in the Slovak Republic has identified nine priority hot spots (areas where the environment is extremely distorted) with the largest one existing on the western border with Austria (around Bratislava). In addition to these nine hot spots, numerous other local hot spots exist, notably around particular industrial cities. The major problem areas are in the south-west of the Slovak Republic (including the Bratislava and Trnava-Galanta hot spots), in the south-east, as well as in areas bordering Hungary and the Ukraine (Košice, Rožňava and Stredny Zemplín) and in the centre of the country (with hot spots at Horna Nitra, Horny Vah and Stredny Hron).

Slovenia: Urbanisation or industrialisation during the pre-transition period has not seriously damaged the Slovenian natural environment. Nevertheless, the new economic situation with the development of the transport infrastructure, urban settlements, tourism and energy production will increase threats to the natural and semi-natural environments in the foreseeable future. The rich biota of the karstic region is particularly threatened by human activity. The development of highway infrastructure jeopardises the continuity of the ecological corridors (i.e. the design of a highway to the coast is currently a controversial topic).

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