Copenhagen Green Economy Leader Report A report by the Economics of Green Cities Programme at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Research Directors Graham Floater Director of Seneca and Principal Research Fellow, London School of Economics and Political Science Philipp Rode Executive Director of LSE Cities and Senior Research Fellow, London School of Economics and Political Science Dimitri Zenghelis Principal Research Fellow, Grantham Research Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science London School of Economics and Political Science Research Team Houghton Street London Matthew Ulterino WC2A 2AE Researcher, LSE Cities UK Duncan Smith Research Officer, LSE Cities Tel: +44 (0)20 7405 7686 Karl Baker Researcher, LSE Cities Catarina Heeckt Researcher, LSE Cities Advisors Nicky Gavron Greater London Authority Production and Graphic Design Atelier Works www.atelierworks.co.uk The full report is available for download from: http:// www.kk.dk/da/om-kommunen/indsatsomraader-og- politikker/natur-miljoe-og-affald/klima/co2-neutral- hovedstad This Report is intended as a basis for discussion. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the material in this report, the authors and/or LSE Cities will not be liable for any loss or damage incurred through the use of this report. Published by LSE Cities, London School of Economics and Political Science, 2014. Research support for this project was provided by Seneca Consultants SPRL. Cover photo credit: [email protected] Contents Executive Summary 7 1 Introduction 15 1.1 Objectives of the report 16 1.2 The Economics of Green Cities programme 17 1.3 Methodology 18 1.4 Report structure 19 PART I 2 Copenhagen: a green economy leader 23 2.1 What is an urban green economy? 24 2.2 Drivers of the green economy 27 2.3 Copenhagen’s green economy 28 PART II 3 Green economy drivers in Copenhagen 39 3.1 Drivers of green growth 41 3.2 Driver 1: Urban form 42 3.3 Driver 2: Innovation 47 3.4 Driver 3: Investment 51 3.5 Driver 4: Skills and employment 53 3.6 Driver 5: Enterprise 56 3.7 Driver 6: Energy and resource effectiveness 59 3.8 Driver 7: Low carbon 69 3.9 Driver 8: Environmental quality 74 PART III 4 Low carbon, energy and resources 83 4.1 Copenhagen’s carbon neutral goal 86 4.2 Energy 89 4.3 Transport 95 4.4 Water 98 4.5 Waste 102 4.6 Future challenges and opportunities 103 5 Urban form, transport and accessibility 113 5.1 Land-use policy programme 115 5.2 Impacts 119 5.3 Future challenges and opportunities 136 6 Innovation and business 139 6.1 Green innovation and economic growth 141 6.2 Policy programme 142 6.3 Impacts 153 6.4 Future challenges and opportunities 159 Acknowledgements 163 Bibliography 164 Appendix – Policy tools and governance 169 Figures Figure 2.1 Framework for assessing urban green growth 27 Figure 2.2 GDP per capita (US$), 2003-2012 28 Figure 2.3 GDP per capita, annual percentage change, 1993-2011 29 Figure 2.4 GVA by region, 1993-2012 (2005-prices, chained values, DKK million) 30 Figure 2.5 Regional and Danish GDP per capita (DKK 1000, 2005 prices), 1993-2011 30 Figure 2.6 Relationship between national competitiveness and economic output of the country’s capital city 31 Figure 2.7 Selected OECD countries, investments in knowledge-based capital as a % of business sector 32 Figure 2.8 Trend growth in real GDP per hour worked, Denmark and other OECD countries, 1995-2012 32 Figure 2.9 Labour productivity in OECD metropolitan regions 33 Figure 2.10 Sustainable growth in Copenhagen 34 Figure 2.11 Relationship between environmental performance and GVA in European cities 35 Figure 2.12 Motorisation rate and GDP per capita for selected countries and cities 36 Figure 3.1 The changing urban morphology of the Copenhagen region, 1900 – 2006 42 Figure 3.2 Changes in population density: continuous urban area of Greater Copenhagen, 1955 – 2010 43 Figure 3.3 Population growth in inner-city Copenhagen and the wider urban region, 1993 – 2013 43 Figure 3.4 Containment index for select OECD cities, 1995-2005 44 Figure 3.5 Residential and job accessibility to rail stations 45 Figure 3.6 Mode share, weekday trips for Copenhagen, Stockholm and London 45 Figure 3.7 Local walking accessibility for adults 46 Figure 3.8 Patent applications to the European Patent Office (EPO), environmental and climate change technologies by OECD Country, 2011 48 Figure 3.9 Total patent applications to the EPO 2000-2009: European Union urban regions 49 Figure 3.10 Research and development spending: Denmark compared, 1996-2010 50 Figure 3.11 Research and development spending: European metropolitan regions compared 50 Figure 3.12 Inward FDI flows, selected OECD countries, annual average 1990-2012 51 Figure 3.13 Inward FDI stock: 1980 – 2011 52 Figure 3.14 Tertiary educational attainment in selected European urban regions, 2012 53 Figure 3.15 Employment rates in selected European urban regions: average rate 2001-2010 54 Figure 3.16 Average GDP and employment growth in selected European urban regions 55 Figure 3.17 EU-27 general government expenditure on education, % of GDP, 2011 56 Figure 3.18 New enterprises in Denmark and the Copenhagen urban region, 2007 – 2011 57 Figure 3.19 Participation in Entrepreneurial Activity: Early Stage Entrepreneurial Activity, Copenhagen and selected world cities, 2001 – 2006 57 Figure 3.20 Total energy use per person in Denmark and selected countries 1960 - 2010 59 Figure 3.21 Energy consumption by sector, Denmark, 1980 - 2011 59 Figure 3.22 Energy efficiency in Denmark and selected countries, 1980 – 2011 Figure 3.23 Electricity and heating energy consumption, Municipality of Copenhagen, 2005 – 2012 60 Figure 3.24 Electricity and heating consumption by sector, 2010 60 Figure 3.25 Total energy consumption by fuel type: Denmark compared, 2010 61 Figure 3.26 Total energy consumption by fuel type, Denmark, 2010 61 Figure 3.27 Fossil fuel dependence: Denmark and selected countries, 1960 – 2012 62 Figure 3.28 Household water consumption, City of Copenhagen, 1987 – 2012 62 Figure 3.29 Household water consumption: a global comparison of selected cities, 2004-05 63 Figure 3.30 Waste Generation in Copenhagen 63 Figure 3.31 Municipal waste generation in selected European countries and EU27 average, 1995 – 2011 64 Figure 3.32 Waste collection and recycling in Copenhagen 64 Figure 3.33 Municipal waste treatment methods in the Municipality of Copenhagen and the EU-27 average, 2010 64 Figure 3.34 District heating market penetration in the Municipality of Copenhagen, 1970-2008 65 Figure 3.35 CHP share of thermal electricity and heat energy production, Denmark, 1990 – 2011 66 Figure 3.36 District Heating and Combined Heat and Power market penetration: selected countries compared, 2011 66 Figure 3.37 Energy-related tax collected, Denmark, 1991 - 2008 67 Figure 3.38 Average cost of water: a comparison of selected European cities, 2004-05 68 Figure 3.39 C02 emissions from transport, heat and power consumption in the Municipality of Copenhagen, 1991 – 2012 69 Figure 3.40 C02 emissions from transport, heat and power consumption in the municipality of Copenhagen, 1991 – 2012 69 Figure 3.41 Fuel types used for district heating, municipality of Copenhagen, 2010 69 Figure 3.42 Fuel types used for district heating, Denmark, 1980 - 2011 70 Figure 3.43 Energy sources for electricity consumption in Copenhagen, 2005 – 2010 70 Figure 3.44 Fuel consumption for electricity production, Denmark, 1980 - 2011 70 Figure 3.45 Carbon intensity of Electricity production: Denmark and international comparisons, 1990 - 2010 71 Figure 3.46 CO2 emissions per capita: Denmark and international comparisons, 1971 -2010 71 Figure 3.47 Per capita carbon emissions by consumption sector, 2010: Denmark and international comparisons 72 Figure 3.48 Comparison of current reported CO2 emissions in a selection of cities 72 Figure 3.49 Lead air pollution, Copenhagen, 1990 – 2007 74 Figure 3.50 Sulphur dioxide air pollution, Copenhagen, 1990 – 2000 74 Figure 3.51 Carbon monoxide air pollution, Copenhagen, 1994 – 2007 74 Figure 3.52 Particulate air pollution, Copenhagen, 1990 – 2007 74 Figure 3.53 Nitrogen dioxide air pollution, Copenhagen and Denmark, 1983 – 2010 75 Figure 3.54 PM10 annual mean in selected cities. Values for 2008 or 2009 76 Figure 3.55 Rainwater and wastewater discharges into Copenhagen Harbour, 1996 – 2010 77 Figure 3.56 Nitrogen discharges into The Sound, Denmark 1989 – 2000 77 Figure 3.57 Phosphorous discharges into The Sound, Denmark, 1989 – 2000 77 Figure 3.58 Urban green space, Copenhagen and selected European cities, 2006 78 Figure 4.1 Distribution of emissions reductions to 2025 in the CPH2025 Climate Plan 86 Figure 4.2 Allocation of reductions from energy production initiatives 90 Figure 4.3 District Cooling in Central Copenhagen around Kongens Nytorv 91 Figure 4.4 Levels of government responsibility for energy policies 94 Figure 4.5 Allocation of reductions from mobility initiatives 95 Figure 4.6 Levels of government responsibility for transport policies 97 Figure 4.7 Water resource and extraction levels in Denmark by region 98 Figure 4.8 The process of climate adaptation in the City of Copenhagen 99 Figure 4.9 Levels of government responsibility for water policies 101 Figure 4.10 Levels of government responsibility for waste policies 103 Figure 5.1 Copenhagen Municipal Plan Øresund Region diagram of growth areas and transport connections 116 Figure 5.2 Importance of land-use policy goals in Copenhagen 117 Figure 5.3 Importance of transport policy goals in Copenhagen 118