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IED” Capabilities in Europe: Assessing the Present Future Threat to West Jeffrey M Jihadist Cells and “IED” Capabilities in Europe: Assessing the Present Future Threat to West U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Visit our website for other free publication downloads FOR THIS AND OTHER PUBLICATIONS, VISIT US AT http://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/ StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil To rate this publication click here. JIHADIST CELLS AND “IED” CAPABILITIES IN EUROPE: ASSESSING THE PRESENT AND FUTURE THREAT Jeffrey M. Bale TO THE WEST Jeffrey M. Bale U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publication SSI Website USAWC Website STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is part of the U.S. Army War College and is the strategic-level study agent for issues related to national security and military strategy with emphasis on geostrate- gic analysis. The mission of SSI is to use independent analysis to conduct strategic studies that develop policy recommendations on: • Strategy, planning, and policy for joint and combined employment of military forces; • Regional strategic appraisals; • The nature of land warfare; • Matters affecting the Army’s future; • The concepts, philosophy, and theory of strategy; and • Other issues of importance to the leadership of the Army. Studies produced by civilian and military analysts concern topics having strategic implications for the Army, the Department of De- fense, and the larger national security community. In addition to its studies, SSI publishes special reports on topics of special or immediate interest. These include edited proceedings of conferences and topically-oriented roundtables, expanded trip re- ports, and quick-reaction responses to senior Army leaders. The Institute provides a valuable analytical capability within the Army to address strategic and other issues in support of Army par- ticipation in national security policy formulation. Strategic Studies Institute Monograph JIHADIST CELLS AND “IED” CAPABILITIES IN EUROPE: ASSESSING THE PRESENT AND FUTURE THREAT TO THE WEST Jeffrey M. Bale November 2012 The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Depart- ment of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Gov- ernment. Authors of Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publications enjoy full academic freedom, provided they do not disclose clas- sified information, jeopardize operations security, or misrepre- sent official U.S. policy. Such academic freedom empowers them to offer new and sometimes controversial perspectives in the in- terest of furthering debate on key issues. This report is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited. ***** This publication is subject to Title 17, United States Code, Sections 101 and 105. It is in the public domain and may not be copyrighted. ***** Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 47 Ashburn Drive, Carlisle, PA 17013. ***** The author would like to thank the following individuals for providing useful source material, valuable feedback, or help in translating some tricky foreign language passages: Kevin Coogan and Michael Kenney (University of Pittsburgh), Major René Pita (Escuela Militar de Defensa NBQ [Spain]), Nancy Roberts (Na- val Postgraduate School), Nancy Rodriguez and Fabien Sievert (formerly with the Monterey Institute of International Studies) Lorenzo Vidino (Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule [ETH]- Zürich), and Phil Williams (University of Pittsburgh). None of them can be blamed for any errors or deficiencies that can be found herein. Thanks are also due to Colonel Alejandro S. Her- nandez (U.S. Army), John Van Hise, Elizabeth Mitchell, and Edward Lesnowicz at the Naval Postgraduate School for their ongoing encouragement and administrative support. This report was originally produced in May 2009, then slightly modified just prior to its publication. ***** All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publications may be downloaded free of charge from the SSI website. Hard copies of this report may also be obtained free of charge while supplies last by placing an order on the SSI website. SSI publications may be quoted or reprinted in part or in full with permission and appropriate credit given to the U.S. Army Strategic Stud- ies Institute, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle Barracks, PA. Contact SSI by visiting our website at the following address: www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil. ii ***** The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail newsletter to update the national security community on the re- search of our analysts, recent and forthcoming publications, and upcoming conferences sponsored by the Institute. Each newslet- ter also provides a strategic commentary by one of our research analysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, please subscribe on the SSI website at www.StrategicStudiesInstitute. army.mil/newsletter/. Previous documents in this series include: Drug Trafficking, Violence, and Instability, by Phil Williams and Vanda Felbab-Brown, April 2012. ISBN 1-58487-554-2 iii CONTENTS Foreword..........................................................................vii About the Author.............................................................ix Summary...........................................................................xi Background.........................................................................1 Part I: Introduction............................................................3 Part II: Individual and Organizational Learning about IEDs.......................................................17 Part III: Jihadist Cells in Europe and IED Expertise............................................................................30 Part IV: Conclusion.......................................................119 v FOREWORD Western military forces and security and intel- ligence agencies are justifiably concerned about two phenomena that continue to affect their ongoing asymmetric conflicts with jihadist terrorist organiza- tions: 1) the increasing diffusion and application of expertise acquired by jihadists in fabricating “impro- vised explosive devices” (IEDs), and 2) the extent to which local jihadist cells in the West may or may not be connected to veteran terrorist groups and networks in other countries and regions. This monograph by Dr. Jeffrey M. Bale argues that these two issues are, in fact, interrelated. Using the March 2004 Madrid train bombings and the two failed July 2006 train bombings near Cologne as contrasting case studies, Bale argues that jihadist cells whose members are linked organiza- tionally, logistically, or operationally to wider terror- ist networks, especially ones comprising well-trained and battle-tested operatives, are much more likely to be able to acquire the levels of technical expertise needed to manufacture effective IEDs, carry out dev- astatingly successful single IED attacks, and perhaps even sustain longer-term IED bombing campaigns. Although these conclusions might seem to be self- evident, they, in fact, challenge the widespread notions that amateur would-be bomb makers using the Inter- net are likely to be able to carry out highly destruc- tive IED attacks or IED campaigns without having re- ceived any hands-on training from professionals, and that today supposedly “self-generating” jihadist cells made up of “bunches of [regular] guys” with no sig- nificant connections to larger networks of extremists constitute the principal terrorist threat to the West. Although autonomous groups of relative amateurs, vii or even ideologically-motivated lone individuals, can occasionally carry out one or two devastating bomb attacks, cause significant casualties, and create other security problems because they may be able to oper- ate “under the radar” beforehand, the most serious terrorist threats, IED or otherwise, stem from jihad- ist cells with a web of interconnections to networks of veteran terrorists, including those with operational and bomb making expertise. As a result, determining the type and degree of connectivity between particular jihadist cells and wider terrorist networks is of great importance in assessing their probable operational ef- fectiveness. In order to shed more light on this matter, Bale develops a new categorization scheme herein for assessing different types and levels of local cell con- nectivity. This monograph was funded by the Department of Defense in connection with a larger project the pur- pose of which was to help military units and security agencies better assess and cope with the growing IED threat, both overseas and at home. DOUGLAS C. LOVELACE, JR. Director Strategic Studies Institute viii ABOUT THE AUTHOR JEFFREY M. BALE is the Director of the Monterey Ter- rorism Research and Education Program (MonTREP) and an Associate Professor in the Graduate School of International Policy and Management (GSIPM) at the Monterey Institute of International Studies (MIIS). Dr. Bale has been studying violence-prone political and religious extremists for nearly 3 decades—long before it suddenly became “fashionable” in the wake of the tragic September 11, 2001 (9/11) attacks on the United States. He has published numerous scholarly articles on nonstate and state terrorism, right-wing extremism, Islamism, apocalyptic religious groups, and covert political operations, and (together with Bassam Tibi) co-edited a special June 2009 issue of the journal Totalitarian Movements and Political Religions (recently renamed Politics, Religion
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