SPRING 2014 9th EDITION The Journal on Terrorism and Security Analysis JTSA China 2020: How the People’s Liberation Army Navy Will Affect the U.S. Pivot to Asia By Alexander J. Paul Following the Pivot: Does NATO Have a Role in Southeast Asia? By Paulina Iżewicz A Case Study in Security Affairs: Israel and Sub-Saharan Africa By Gregory Flatow Terrorism and Cyber Attacks as Hybrid Threats: Defining a Comprehensive 21st Century Approach to Global Security By Sascha-Dominik Bachmann & Håkan Gunneriusson The Caucasus Emirate: Russia’s Homegrown Terrorists By Andrew S. Bowen Published by: Contents 2 Acknowledgments 402 MacNaughton Hall Syracuse University Syracuse, NY 13244 3 Contributors E-mail: [email protected] Web: http://satsa.us Journal on Terrorism & Security 4 China 2020: How the People's Liberation Analysis Editorial Board 2013—2014 Army Navy Will Affect the U.S. Pivot to Asia Editor in Chief By Alexander J. Paul David Culley Managing Editors Mary Capparuccini 9 Following the Pivot: Does NATO Have a Tara Pistorese Role in Southeast Asia? Assistant Editors By Paulina Iżewicz Cameron Reed Chris Thompson Chris Moritt Justin Burgess 17 A Case Study in Security Affairs: Israel and Associate Editors Sub-Saharan Africa Matthew Briand By Gregory Flatow Caroline Corcos Jesse Campion Daniel Haverty Jeffrey Howell 26 Terrorism and Cyber Attacks as Hybrid Ben Kopp Peter Levrant Threats: Defining a Comprehensive 21st Kyle Lundin Anne Rakoczy-Kostrycky-Zwil Century Approach to Global Security Jason Stanley By Sascha-Dominik Bachmann & Production and Design Håkan Gunneriusson Syracuse University, Office of Publications 37 The Caucasus Emirate: Russia's Homegrown Terrorists By Andrew S. Bowen SPRING 2014 9TH EDITION 1 JTSA The Journal Now in its 9th edition, JTSA continues to provide students and practitioners with the opportunity to publish in a recognized national security journal. This edition is the combined effort of a diverse staff, including students from the law, public administration, and international relations departments of Syracuse University. Please browse our new and improved website: http://jtsa.syr.edu/ JTSA also continues to attract scholarly attention from established and aspiring scholars. With newly implemented protocols in place to ensure institutional memory, JTSA hopes to build on past achievements to ensure continued future advancement toward scholarly excellence. Acknowledgments The staff would first and foremost like to thank the faculty and staff of the Institute for National Security and Counterterrorism (“INSCT”). The INSCT staff, without whom this journal and the annual conference would not be possible. We would especially like to thank William C. Banks, Robert B. Murrett, David M. Crane, Keli Perrin, William Snyder, Tara Helfman, Isaac Kfir, and Lisa Pritchard for their continued support and guidance. The inspirational depth of scholarship and personal generosity of the INSCT faculty to their students adds greatly to our experience here. The staff would also like to thank Dean James B. Steinberg for his leadership at the Maxwell School. A special thank you must finally go to Mr. Lawrence A. Raab and the Student Association on Terrorism and Security Analysis (“SATSA”). We hope you enjoy this year’s journal. Thank you for your support. 2 THE JOURNAL ON TERRORISM AND SECURITY ANALYSIS Contributors Alex Paul is a Master’s degree in International Relations International Law (AP) at the University of Lincoln. Sascha candidate at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public was educated in Germany (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität Affairs at Syracuse University, and is attending as part of (LMU) München), South Africa (Stellenbosch University the Atlantis Transatlantic Degree Program in International and University of Johannesburg,) and the United Kingdom Security and Development. His academic interests include (University of Portsmouth). He is a Lieutenant Colonel in proliferation, post-conflict security provision, and East Asia. the German Army Reserve and served as a peacekeeper in Mr. Paul graduated with a Masters degree in International the Balkans (Kosovo) on three occasions while completing Relations from the University of Edinburgh (Scotland) in his LL.D with the University of Johannesburg, South Africa. 2013. He is also a member of the Royal Naval Reserve as a Logistics specialist. His e-mail address is [email protected] Trained as a Mountain Warfare Officer, he also had the privilege to be seconded to the U.S. 23rd Marine Regiment as an exchange officer as part of the official U.S.-German Reserve Officers Foreign Exchange Officer Program. His Paulina Iżewicz is an analyst at the Institute for Science particular research interests are in the fields of human rights and International Security, where she focuses on the Iranian litigation, historical justice litigation, the Holocaust/Shoa, nuclear program, illicit nuclear trade and global stockpiles terrorism, the law of armed conflict, hybrid threats and of fissile materials. Reuters and the Los Angeles Times have holistic responses to new 21st century security threats. referenced her work in these fields. She has also written Dr. Bachmann can be contacted at: saschadominikbach- about the United States “rebalance” to Asia and the Law [email protected]. of the Sea arbitration in the South China Sea disputes. She holds a Master of Arts in International Relations from Syracuse University’s Maxwell School, where she studied under a Fulbright scholarship, and a Masters of Law from Dr. Håkan Gunneriusson is the head of research for the University of Wroclaw, Poland. ground operations and tactics at the Swedish National Defence College (SNDC). Dr. Gunneriusson received his PhD in History from Uppsala University 2002, and received multiple grants for his dissertation. His most recent research Gregory Flatow received a Bachelor of Arts and a Master involves hybrid threats, including cyber security. Gunnerius- of Arts in International Relations from the Maxwell School son is head of the introductory course of the Military Of- of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University. He ficer’s Program, the COIN course on the Officer’s Program, also received a Certificate of Advanced Study in Security and the final exam paper course for Sweden’s collected Studies from the Institute for National Security and Coun- military cadets. He can be reached at: Hakan.Gunnerius- terterrorism. Mr. Flatow previously completed the Execu- [email protected] tive Certificate Program in Counter-Terrorism Studies at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism in Herzliyya, Israel, and conducted volunteer research at the Institute for National Security and Counterterrorism at Syracuse Univer- Andrew S. Bowen is a Master’s candidate in Global Affairs sity. He may be contacted at [email protected]. at New York University and is a researcher at the geopo- litical consultancy group Wikistrat. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Political Science and International Relations from the University of California Davis. He is also a columnist for Dr. Sascha-Dominik Bachmann joined the University The Interpreter, a Russian language translation and analysis of Bournemouth, UK, as an associate professor in August journal. Mr. Bowen is a widely published author, writ- 2013. His teaching and research focuses on international ing for such outlets as The Atlantic, The Daily Beast, The legal subjects and he works on research projects involv- National Interest and The Diplomat. He may be reached at ing colleagues from the UK, South Africa, Israel, Sweden, [email protected] and he Tweets at @Andrew_S_Bowen. the USA and Australia. Prior to joining Bournemouth, he worked as a Senior Lecturer in International and European Law at the University of Portsmouth and as a Reader in SPRING 2014 9TH EDITION 3 JTSA comply with the terms of the Chinese declaration to patrol China 2020: How the over the islands on a training mission. Furthermore, in early People’s Liberation Army December, there was a reported near-miss incident at sea Navy Will Affect the U.S. between the USS Cowpens (CG-63) and an unidentified Chinese warship. The Chinese subsequently claimed that Pivot to Asia the USS Cowpens had intentionally “triggered the confron- By Alexander J. Paul tation” whilst the U.S. claimed its ship had been forced to Introduction take defensive action.2 With a crew of over 6000, the USS George Washing- However, perhaps the incident with the most important ton (CVN 73) is less like a ship and more like a small town long-term implications for the success of the pivot to Asia afloat on the high seas. One of ten nuclear-powered aircraft went the least reported, particularly by Western media. Im- carriers in the United States Navy’s fleet, she is one of the mediately following the Chinese declaration of its ADIZ, its largest warships in the world today and serves as potent first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning,3quietly slipped its moorings symbol to all who see her of U.S. military power and reach. in its homeport of Qingdao and set out for the South China Home-ported in Yokosuka, Japan, the USS George Wash- Sea for the first time to “conduct scientific experiments and ington represents a potent representation of the U.S.’s military training.”4 For the first time, China has a ship with long-standing maritime presence in the East Asian region. It the potential to project power over the entirety of the near is a key part of the so-called ‘pivot to Asia’ that is currently seas area and could, in time, come to significantly alter the reshaping the U.S.’s national security and defense policies. regional balance of maritime power. In the last quarter of 2013, the George Washington These events demonstrate that it will most likely be in sailed into the South China Sea at the head of the Navy’s the seas off of East Asia where the geopolitical ambitions of Carrier Strike Group 5, a task force, which also includes two both China and the U.S.