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Vulnerability in Developing Countries

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Vulnerability in Developing Countries United Nations University Press is the publishing arm of the United Nations University. UNU Press publishes scholarly and policy-oriented books and periodicals on the issues facing the United Nations and its peoples and member states, with particular emphasis upon international, regional, and transboundary policies. The United Nations University was established as a subsidiary organ of the United Nations by General Assembly resolution 2951 (XXVII) of 11 December 1972. It functions as an international community of scholars engaged in research, postgraduate training, and the dissemination of knowledge to address the pressing global problems of human survival, development, and welfare that are the concern of the United Nations and its agencies. Its activities are devoted to advancing knowledge for human security and development and are focused on issues of peace and governance and environment and sustainable development. The Univer- sity operates through a worldwide network of research and training centres and programmes, and its planning and coordinating centre in Tokyo. Vulnerability in developing countries The UNU World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU- WIDER) was established by the United Nations University as its first re- search and training centre and started work in Helsinki, Finland, in 1985. The purpose of the institute is to undertake applied research and policy analysis on structural changes affecting developing and transitional economies, to provide a forum for the advocacy of policies leading to ro- bust, equitable and environmentally sustainable growth and to promote capacity-strengthening and training in the field of economic and social policy-making. Its work is carried out by staff researchers and visiting scholars in Helsinki and via networks of collaborating scholars and insti- tutions around the world. World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) Katajanokanlaituri 6 B, FIN-00160 Helsinki, Finland www.wider.unu.edu Vulnerability in developing countries Edited by Wim Naude´,AmeliaU.Santos-Paulinoand Mark McGillivray United Nations a University Press TOKYO u NEW YORK u PARIS 6 United Nations University, 2009 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations University. United Nations University Press United Nations University, 53-70, Jingumae 5-chome, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 150-8925, Japan Tel: þ81-3-5467-1212 Fax: þ81-3-3406-7345 E-mail: [email protected] general enquiries: [email protected] http://www.unu.edu United Nations University Office at the United Nations, New York 2 United Nations Plaza, Room DC2-2062, New York, NY 10017, USA Tel: þ1-212-963-6387 Fax: þ1-212-371-9454 E-mail: [email protected] United Nations University Press is the publishing division of the United Nations University. Cover design by Mea Rhee Cover photograph by Ami Vitale/Panos Pictures Printed in Hong Kong ISBN 978-92-808-1171-1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Vulnerability in developing countries / edited by Wim Naude´,AmeliaU.Santos- Paulino and Mark McGillivray. p. ; cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-9280811711 (pbk.) 1. Poverty—Developing countries. 2. Public health—Developing countries. 3. Natural disasters—Developing countries. I. Naude´, Wim A. II. Santos Paulino, Amelia Uliafnova. III. McGillivray, Mark. [DNLM: 1. Developing Countries—economics. 2. Poverty. 3. Socioeconomic Factors. 4. Vulnerable Populations. HC 59.7 V991 2009] HC59.7.V83 2009 362.50917204—dc22 2009018539 Contents Figures................................................................. vii Tables.................................................................. x Boxes .................................................................. xiii Contributors........................................................... xiv Foreword by Anthony Shorrocks . ............................. xviii Acknowledgements . ............................. xx Abbreviations ......................................................... xxii 1 Vulnerability in developing countries: An introduction . 1 Wim Naude´, Amelia U. Santos-Paulino and Mark McGillivray Part I: Income and health ............................................ 11 2 Measuring vulnerability and poverty: Estimates for rural India................................................................ 13 Raghav Gaiha and Katsushi Imai vi CONTENTS 3 Vulnerability, trust and micro-credit: The case of China’s rural poor . ............................ 55 Calum G. Turvey and Rong Kong 4 Assets, poverty dynamics and vulnerability: Evidence from ruralTajikistan.................................................... 81 Oleksiy Ivaschenko and Cem Mete 5 Vulnerability,povertyandcopinginZimbabwe................ 118 KateBirdandMartinProwse 6 Vulnerability dynamics and HIV risk in the semi-arid tropics of rural Andhra Pradesh . ............................ 156 B. Valentine Joseph Gandhi, Ma. Cynthia Serquin˜a Bantilan and Devanathan Parthasarathy 7 Vulnerability to hunger: Responding to food crises in fragile states .............................................................. 190 Colin Andrews and Margarita Flores Part II: Natural hazards and macroeconomic shocks ............... 213 8 Vulnerability of small-island economies: The impact of ‘‘natural’’disastersintheCaribbean ............................ 215 Martin Philipp Heger, Alex Julca and Oliver Paddison 9 Natural disasters and remittances: Poverty, gender and disastervulnerabilityinCaribbeanSIDS........................ 249 Marlene Attzs 10 Growth-oriented macroeconomic policies for small-island economies: Lessons from Singapore . ............................ 262 Anis Chowdhury Part III: Conclusion .................................................. 289 11 Vulnerability in developing countries: Implications and conclusions ........................................................ 291 Wim Naude´, Amelia U. Santos-Paulino and Mark McGillivray Index .................................................................. 304 Figures 2A.1 Crop shock in Aurepalle and Dokur in Andhra Pradesh . 50 2A.2 Crop shock in Shirapur, Kalman and Kanzara in Maharashtra .................................................. 50 3.1 Cumulative index of rural household net income . ........ 57 3.2 Prisoner’s dilemma payoff matrix to trust–honesty game . 62 3.3 General model of micro-credit market showing equilibrium below which micro-credit loans will be made based on trust, and above which loans will be made based oncollateral................................................... 66 3.4 Conceptual model of rural micro-credit market in China, showing the loan rate schedule of a rural credit cooperative . .................................................. 69 3.5 Conceptual model of rural micro-credit market in China when RCC loan rates rise above micro-credit loan rate. 70 3.6 Expanded model of rural micro-credit market in China showing RCC and moneylender loan schedules and how micro-creditcancrowdoutusuryrates...................... 70 4.1 Changeinlandownershipstructure,2000–2004 ............ 83 4.2 Compositionofgrossagriculturaloutput,1996–2003....... 84 4.3 Trendsincottonoutput,yieldandvalue,1991–2003 ....... 85 4.4 Correlations between district poverty headcount and land variables....................................................... 86 4.5 Correlations between district poverty headcount and cotton production . ........................................... 87 vii viii FIGURES 4.6 Poverty transitions: Consumption poverty line vs. asset povertyline.................................................... 89 4.7 Share of rural households that acquired or disposed of assets(panelhouseholds)..................................... 95 4.8 Determinants of the probability of moving out of poverty . 99 4.9 Determinants of the probability of moving out of poverty (cotton-producing districts only) ............................. 101 4.10 Determinants of the probability of moving into poverty . 103 4.11 Determinants of the probability of moving into poverty (cotton-producing districts only) ............................. 104 5.1 Ex ante and ex post responses to damaging fluctuations . 124 5.2 Wellbeingmap:AngelMuponda............................. 132 5.3 Wellbeingmap:Linah ........................................ 134 5.4 Wellbeingmap:BlessingDhlami............................. 140 5.5 Wellbeingmap:NatalieMusanhi............................. 148 5.6 Wellbeingmap:LovemoreSamuelZenzele ................. 150 6.1 Therisk-to-riskframework................................... 161 6.2 TotalnumberofvisitorstotheVCTC,2002–2005.......... 169 6.3 NumberofHIV-positivecases,2002–2005 .................. 170 6.4 First-time migration of respondents, 1986–2006 ............. 174 6.5 Reasonsformigratingthefirsttime.......................... 175 6.6 Reasonsformigratingthesecondtime,2005–2006 ......... 175 6.7 HowremittanceswereusedinDokur,2006................. 177 6.8 Reasons given by respondents for not migrating ............ 178 6.9 Reasonsforriskybehaviourinmigrationdestinations...... 184 7.1 Global Consolidated Appeals Process requirements and pledgesacrossmainsectors,2008 ............................ 195 7.2 Current Central and Eastern Africa food security situation, OctobertoDecember2008................................... 197 8.1 Types of natural disaster, 1970–2006 . ...................... 221 8.2 Frequency of natural disasters, 1970–2006 ................... 222 8.3 Occurrence of natural disasters by country, 1970–2006
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