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EMD Uranium (Nuclear Minerals) Committee EMD Uranium (Nuclear Minerals) Committee EMD Uranium (Nuclear Minerals) Committee Annual Report - 2011 Michael D. Campbell, P.G., P.H., Chair Vice-Chairs: Robert Odell, P.G., (Vice-Chair: Industry), Consultant, Casper, WY (Vice-Chair Report: page 19) Steven N. Sibray, P.G., (Vice-Chair: University), U. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NB (Vice-Chair Report: page 36) Robert W. Gregory, P.G., (Vice-Chair: Government), WY State Geol. Survey, Laramie, WY (Vice-Chair Report: page 38) Michael Jacobs, P.G., (Vice-Chair: Representative of DEG) Dan Tearpock, P.G., (Vice-Chair: Representative of DPA) Advisory Committee: Henry M. Wise, P.G., Eagle-SWS, La Porte, TX Bruce Handley, P.G., Environmental & Mining Consultant, Houston, TX James Conca, Ph.D., P.G., Director, Carlsbad Research Center, New Mexico State U., Carlsbad, NM Fares M Howari, Ph.D., University of Texas of the Permian Basin, Odessa, TX Hal Moore, Moore Petroleum Corporation, Norman, OK Douglas C. Peters, P.G., Consultant, Golden, CO Arthur R. Renfro, P.G., Senior Geological Consultant, Cheyenne, WY Karl S. Osvald, P.G., Senior Geologist, U.S. BLM, Casper WY Jerry Spetseris, P.G., Consultant, Austin, TX Observing Committee: http://emd.aapg.org/members_only/uranium/index.cfmlbobservers Introduction This Annual Report for 2011 serves to update the 2010 Mid-Year Report of the Uranium (Nuclear Minerals) Committee. The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) provides updates regarding uranium activities in the U.S. This information provides the basis for the first section of our report. The UN‗s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the World Nuclear Institute (WNI) have provided much of the data and information for our report on international activities. By far the major use of uranium is to produce electricity - the U.S. produces almost 20 percent of its electricity via nuclear power. You should be aware that one pound of yellowcake (U3O8 - the Note: Michael A Wiley, Ph.D., P.G. provided substantial input to this report. Dr. Wiley serves as the Councilor of the Gulf Coast Section of the EMD and is Chief Geologist for the Consulting Operation, Canyon Lake, Texas. Error! Bookmark not defined. final product of the uranium milling process) has the energy equivalence of 35 barrels of oil. One 7-gram uranium fuel pellet has an energy-to-electricity equivalent of 17,000 cubic feet of natural gas, or 1,780 pounds of coal. Today, there are some 441 nuclear power reactors operating in 30 countries and nuclear energy provides approximately 15% of the world's electricity. These 441 reactors, with combined capacity of over 376 Gigawatts (One GWe equals one billion watts or one thousand megawatts), require approximately 69,000 tonnes of uranium oxide (U3O8), otherwise known as yellowcake, end product of current uranium recovery operations. According to the World Nuclear Association (WNA)(32), with some 60 reactors being built around the world today, another 150 or more planned to come online during the next 10 years, and over 200 further back in the pipeline, the global nuclear industry is clearly going forward strongly. Countries with established programs are seeking to replace old reactors as well as expand capacity, and an additional 25 countries are either considering or have already decided to make nuclear energy part of their power generation capacity. However, most (over 80%) of the expansion in this century is likely to be in countries already using nuclear power. In 2008, uranium recovery operations supplied 51,600 tonnes of uranium oxide concentrate containing 43,853 tU, which means mining supplied roughly 75% of nuclear utility power requirements. The remaining supply deficit used to be made up from stockpiled uranium held by nuclear power utilities, but their stockpiles are nearing depletion. Production is now primarily supplemented by ex-military material - the ―Megatons to Megawatts‖ program which ends in 2013 - the Russians have stated that the agreement will not be renewed. The approximately 104 nuclear power plants operating in the U.S. today consume about 50 million pounds of uranium fuel per year but the U.S.'s current annual production is only about 4 million pounds per year, as indicated in previous versions of this report (Mid-Year Report). As is the current situation with oil, the U.S. is highly reliant on foreign sources for its uranium Even though Canada and Australia are politically stable, market forces may restrict supplies. Numerous alternative sources will need to be developed throughout the world wherever such resources are made available to the World market. New exploration in various parts of the world is resulting in new discoveries and future fuel requirements appear to be available at reasonable costs, and which will be discussed later in this report. There is also a new development in the size of nuclear reactors in the range of 25MW to 100 MW. A number of groups are designing small, modular reactors that can be trucked in to supply electricity for a population 25,000 to 50,000 in emergency circumstances or for use in remote areas, on the Earth and off-World. The current status of the development of these small reactors is summarized by WNA(33). According to the latest available data from DOE, between 2004 and 2008 (latest data available), total domestic energy use decreased 0.09% as measured in quadrillion BTU. In 2008, total nuclear-generated electricity accounted for 8.47% of the total domestic electric energy use, an increase of 2.49% from 2004 (1). New data on electricity use will be released by EIA in August, 2011. Page 2 U.S. Uranium Production Domestic uranium production (see Table 1) increased from 2003 to 2007 and decreased until mid-2010 when production again began to rise. Table 1 Yellowcake Production (in pounds of U3O8) Calendar 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year See note See note Quarter 1st 400,000 600,000 709,600 931,065 1,162,737 810,189 880,036 876,064 2nd 600,000 400,000 630,053 894,268 1,119,536 1,073,315 982,760 1,055,102 3rd 400,000 588,738 663,068 1,083,808 1,075,460 980,933 956,657 1,150,725 4th 600,000 600,000 686,456 1,196,485 1,175,845 1,037,946 888,905 1,153,104 Year 2,000,000 2,282,406 2,689,178 4,105,626 4,533,576 3,902,383 3,708,358 4,235,015 Total Change % -14.6 14.1 17.8 52.6 10.4 -13.47 -4.97 14.0 Note: All of 2003 and all but third quarter 2004 production was rounded to the nearest 100,000 pounds to avoid disclosure of individual company data. The 4.5 million pounds produced in 2007 is the most since 4.6 million pounds were produced in 1999. In 2007, production increased 10.4% from 2006. Through the second quarter of 2010, production has increased 3.67% from the previous year, but by the end of 2010, production had risen 14% from the previous year. U.S. Uranium Production as of 4th Quarter - 2010 Based on the current U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Report (34), U.S. production of uranium was 1,153,104 pounds U3O8, up 0.2 percent from the previous quarter and up 30 percent from the fourth quarter 2009. During the 4th quarter 2010: U.S. uranium concentrate was produced at five U.S. uranium concentrate processing facilities. U.S. Uranium Mill in Production: White Mesa Mill U.S. Uranium In-Situ-Recovery Plants in Production: Alta Mesa Project (Tx) Crow Butte Operation (Wy) Smith Ranch-Highland Operation (Wy) La Palangana (Tx) Starting in the fourth quarter 2010, La Palangana produced uranium that was supplied to the Hobson In-Situ Recovery (ISR) Plant. Hobson and La Palangana are part of the same project (2). The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) has expanded its coverage of uranium and nuclear power reporting to the general public (35). Page 3 Final 2010 Production Total U.S. uranium production totaled 4,235,015 pounds U3O8 in 2010 (Figure 1). This amount is 14 (6) percent higher than the 3,708,358 pounds produced in 2009. Uranium Prices (3 and Table 2 shows U3O8 production and the price per pound realized for the period 2002 – 2009 11). EIA data on current prices will not be available until May, 2011. Spot prices are available in Figure 2. Table 2 Delivery Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 U.S. Origin U3O8 6.2 10.2 12.3 11.0 10.8 4.0 7.7 7.1 (million pounds) Weighted average price $10.89 $10.81 $11.87 $15.11 $17.85 $28.89 $59.55 $48.92 Foreign Origin U3O8 45.5 46.4 51.8 54.7 55.7 47.0 45.6 42.8 (million pounds) Weighted average price $10.29 $10.81 $12.76 $14.21 $18.75 $33.05 $43.47 $45.35 Spot contracts U3O8 8.6 8.2 9.2 6.9 6.3 6.6 8.7 8.1 (million pounds) Weighted average price $9.29 $10.10 $14.77 $20.04 $39.48 $88.25 $66.95 $46.45 For total delivery, prices had remained fairly steady with only a modest up-tick though 2005. The spot price surged 35.7% between 2004 and 2005. From 2005 to 2006, spot prices nearly doubled (97%). Between 2006 and 2007, spot prices more than doubled and some prices exceeded $100 per pound U3O8. This has sparked a large reinvestment in Texas uranium mining and elsewhere.
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