'Business Intelligence Offshore Wind'

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'Business Intelligence Offshore Wind' ‘Business Intelligence Offshore Wind’ Een studie in opdracht van ECN naar trends en kostenontwikkeling van offshore wind technologie in Europa P.F. van den Oosterkamp A. Curvers S. Dijkstra S.M. Lensink J. Gerdes December 2012 ECN-E--10-006 1 Verantwoording Dit rapport is geschreven in opdracht van ECN. De financiering van dit project is afkomstig van een beschikbaar budget in relatie van extra EZS ten gevolge van loon & prijsbijstelling in 2011. 2 ECN-E--10-006 Inhoud Lijst van tabellen 4 Lijst van figuren 4 Samenvatting 5 1. Inleiding 6 2. Probleemstelling 7 3. Onderzoeksvragen 8 3.1 Centrale onderzoeksvraag 8 3.2 Deelvragen 8 4. Opzet van de studie 9 4.1 Type onderzoek 9 4.2 Gegevensverzameling en methodologie 9 4.3 Gegevensverwerking 9 5. Afbakening en beperking van de studie 10 6. Resultaten van het onderzoek 11 6.1 De offshore wind industrie in Europa 11 6.1.1 Algemeen 11 6.1.2 Geïnstalleerd vermogen aan offshore wind in Europa in 2011 11 6.1.3 Gepland vermogen aan offshore wind in Europa 12 6.1.4 Relatie van geïnstalleerd vermogen en NREAP’s 13 6.1.5 Windaanbod, kustafstand en diepte in de geïdentificeerde locaties 15 6.1.6 Spelers in offshore wind technologie 16 6.1.7 Kostenprofiel en financiering van offshore wind parken 16 6.2 Technologieontwikkelingen offshore wind in de komende 20 jaar 25 6.3 Kosten en leereffecten van offshore windtechnologie 32 6.3.1 Leereffecten van offshore wind energie 32 6.3.2 Inschatting van kostprijs elektriciteit 34 6.3.2.1 Het ECN kosten model voor offshore wind 34 6.3.3 Inschatting van kostprijs elektriciteit in betrokken projecten 38 6.4 Europees beleid t.a.v. offshore wind technologie 40 6.4.1 Algemeen 40 6.4.2 Vigerend beleid in de bepalende landen 40 6.4.3 Leereffecten in de geïdentificeerde projecten 41 7. Aanbevelingen voor ECN in het licht van de resultaten van dit onderzoek 46 8. Conclusies 47 Referenties 48 A. Geïnstalleerd vermogen offshore wind Europa 50 B. Geïnstalleerd vermogen offshore wind Europa incl. afstand 53 C. Gepland vermogen offshore wind Europa 56 D. Windaanbod geïdentificeerde projecten Europa 67 E. Turbineleveranciers in grootste projecten Europa 71 F. Voorbeelden financieringsvormen 75 ECN-E--10-006 3 Lijst van tabellen Tabel 6-1 Beoogde realiteit wind op zee in 2020 volgens actieplannen ................................ 14 Tabel 6-2 Geïnstalleerd aantal offshore wind turbines per 31 december 2009 (KPMG, 2010) aangevuld met cijfers 2010 en 2011 uit Bijlage D ....................................... 16 Tabel 6-3 Kostenelementen van offshore windprojecten (KPMG, 2010; PWC, 2011) ........... 17 Tabel 6-4 Karakteristieken van een typisch Duits offshore windpark .................................... 19 Tabel 6-5 Investeringsresultaten van een typisch Duits offshore windproject (KPMG, 2010) ....................................................................................................................... 19 Tabel 6-6 Overzicht van de top 10 offshore wind farm operators einde 2010, waarvan 8 E-bedrijven en 2 investeerders. Zie (BTM Consult 2010) ...................................... 26 Tabel 6-7 Trends in technische ontwikkeling van turbines. .................................................... 27 Tabel 6-8 Leeronderdelen van windprojecten op zee ............................................................. 33 Tabel 6-9 Input parameters ECN cash flow model ................................................................. 37 Tabel 6-10 Kostprijs van bestaande windparken, herberekening tegen actuele prijzen ........... 39 Tabel 6-11.Windpark gegevens voor het bepalen van leereffecten ............................................. 42 Lijst van figuren Figuur 6.1 Geografische indeling van geïnstalleerd vermogen offshore wind ......................... 11 Figuur 6.2 Cumulatief geïnstalleerd vermogen in Europa ....................................................... 12 Figuur 6.3 Geografische indeling van gepland (‘aangekondigd’) geïnstalleerd vermogen offshore wind (bron: Bloomberg) ........................................................................... 13 Figuur 6.4 Cumulatief ingepland vermogen in Europa (bron: Bloomberg) ............................. 13 Figuur 6.5 Bestaand en gepland vermogen, afgezet tegen de 2020-doelstelling ...................... 15 Figuur 6.6 Kostenverdeling (als percentage van LCOE) van een typisch 400 MWe offshore wind project (PWC, 2011) ...................................................................................... 17 Figuur 6.7 Risico’s tijdens de ontwikkeling van offshore windparken ..................................... 21 Figuur 6.8 Ontwikkeling van financiering van offshore windprojecten ................................... 23 Figuur 6.9 Verdeling van de investeringskosten CAPEX; voor een offshore project in Europa. Turbine is 41%, Fundatie en installatie is 34%, Elektriciteits- infrastructuur is 18% en overige is 7%. (bron: BTM Consult 2010). .................... 28 Figuur 6.10 Ontwikkeling van vermogen en rotor diameters voor wind turbines. ..................... 29 Figuur 6.11 Afname specifieke massa van turbineontwerpen .................................................... 30 Figuur 6.12 ECN-kostenmodel voor wind op zee (Lensink et al (2009) ..................................... 34 Figuur 6.13 Windsnelheden zoals gebruikt in de verificatie ...................................................... 35 Figuur 6.14 Funderingskosten als functie van waterdiepte ........................................................ 36 Figuur 6.15 Wake effecten windturbineparken op zee ................................................................ 38 Figuur 6.16 Verschil in investeringskosten tussen ECN-kostenmodel en kostendatabase Bloomberg ............................................................................................................... 40 Figuur 6.17 Leereffect op basis van kosten per MW .................................................................. 43 Figuur 6.18 Leereffect met correctie voor staalprijzen .............................................................. 44 Figuur 6.19 Leereffect met correctie voor staalprijs en diepte .................................................. 44 Figuur 6.20 Leercurve voor kosten per MWeff, gecorrigeerd voor staalprijzen en diepte .......... 45 4 ECN-E--10-006 Samenvatting In het voorliggende rapport is de hoofdvraag die is geanalyseerd : “Wat zijn in de periode 2010-2020 de te verwachten ontwikkelingen in Europa op het gebied van offshore windtechnologie, de te verwachten kostendaling en welke marktkansen voor ECN zijn op grond van deze ontwikkelingen te verwachten?” Met onder meer het NEF (New Energy Finance) database pakket van Bloomberg is een analyse gemaakt van alle gerealiseerde offshore wind projecten in Europa, alsmede alle geplande pro- jecten. De markt voor offshore wind technologie in Europa laat in het laatste decennium een sterke groei zien van het cumulatief geïnstalleerde vermogen dat op 01-01-2012 ca. 2900 MW bedraagt. Het aangekondigde vermogen in 2012 bedraagt ruim 80,000 MW, waarvan het me- rendeel (3/4) betrekking heeft op het Verenigd Koninkrijk en Duitsland. De Offshore wind markt wordt in Europa gedomineerd door de grote energiebedrijven. Bij de uitvoering is sprake van een conglomeraat van energiebedrijven, projectontwikkelaars en investeerders. Financie- ringsconstructies via partnerships en ‘special purpose vehicles’ worden vaak toegepast ter be- perking van de financiële risico’s. De ontwikkeling van de technologie van offshore wind be- weegt zich naar toepassing van steeds groter turbines, gedreven vanuit de filosofie gericht op het verlagen van operationele kosten (OPEX) bij gelijktijdige verhoging van productie in kWh. Het leereffect van offshore wind technologie van de geïdentificeerde projecten ligt tussen 3 en 7 %. De hierbij behorende standaarddeviatie (R2) is echter laag. Dit laatste element duidt op een offshore wind industrie die tamelijk onvolwassen en heterogeen is (ieder offshore wind project is een project op zichzelf). De verwachting is dat de leereffecten bij een verdere ontwikkeling van een volwassen offshore wind industrie zullen toenemen en dat de bijbehorende statistiek zal verbeteren bij het vormen van een meer homogene markt. Aansluiting van onderzoek van ECN ligt enerzijds in een rol bij de technologische trends, ge- dreven naar optimalisatie van de opbrengst van een totale wind farm en anderzijds bij een lei- dende rol bij het in kaart brengen van bijbehorende leereffecten. ECN-E--10-006 5 1. Inleiding De markt en technologie van offshore wind is één van de belangrijke technologieën (naast o.m. bio-energie en zonne-energie) die worden ingezet voor de transitie naar een duurzame gebaseer- de energie voorziening. De met offshore wind technologie opgewekte elektriciteit is anno 2011 nog betrekkelijk duur en ongeveer twee maal zo duur als windenergie op land. Het potentieel op zee is echter veel groter en met een verwachte kostendaling van offshore wind technologie zal de prijs van opgewekte elektriciteit met deze bron naar verwachting dalen. Met dit Business Intelligence project willen we door middel van een marktanalyse proberen de- ze verwachte kostendaling te analyseren op juistheid. We maken hierbij gebruik van reeds be- schikbare informatie bij ECN (met name binnen de units Wind en Beleidsstudies) en van infor- matie beschikbaar uit een commercieel database pakket van de firma Bloomberg. Tevens worden de belangrijkste trends in technologie en markt die een relatie hebben met kos- tendaling in beeld gebracht. Het project is uitgevoerd
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