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Water Scarcity-Induced Change in Vegetation Cover Along Teesta River Catchments in Bangladesh

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Water Scarcity-Induced Change in Vegetation Cover Along Teesta River Catchments in Bangladesh Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology Water scarcity-induced change in vegetation cover along Teesta River catchments in Bangladesh NDVI, Tasseled Cap and System dynamics analysis Md. Azizur Rahman Master’s thesis NKA 69 Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, 45 2013 Credits Preface This Master’s thesis is Md. Azizur Rahman’s degree project in Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology at the Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University. The Master’s thesis comprises 45 credits (one and a half term of full- time studies). Supervisors have been Göran Alm and Lucas Dawson at the Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University. Examiner has been Ian Brown at the Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University. The author is responsible for the contents of this thesis. Stockholm, 7 March 2013 Lars-Ove Westerberg Director of studies Water scarcity-induced change in vegetation cover along Teesta River catchments in Bangladesh: NDVI, Tasseled Cap and System dynamics analysis Abstract:....................................................................................................................................iii Abstract:....................................................................................................................................iii Introduction................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Background of the problem: ............................................................................................2 1.2 Aim of the study: .............................................................................................................4 1.3 Overview of the study area: .............................................................................................4 1.3.1 Teesta River profile: .................................................................................................6 Literature review........................................................................................................................8 2.1 Water scarcity: .................................................................................................................8 2.2 Water Scarcity and Bangladesh: ......................................................................................8 2.3 Land use and land cover change:.....................................................................................9 2.4 Relation between water scarcity and land use and land cover change: ...........................9 2.5 GIS and modeling: .........................................................................................................10 2.6 System dynamics and GIS: ............................................................................................12 2.7 Convenient techniques of draught /water scarcity measurements:................................13 2.8 Previous studies in the study area:.................................................................................15 Methods and material...............................................................................................................16 3.1 Methodical Overview: ...................................................................................................16 3.1.1 Data collection: .......................................................................................................16 3.1.2 Literature studies:....................................................................................................16 3.1.3 Data analysis methods: ...........................................................................................16 3.1.4 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): ................................................18 3.1.5 Tasseled Cap:..........................................................................................................18 3.1.6 System modeling and integration with vegetation cover change data:...................20 3.1.7 Reporting: ...............................................................................................................20 3.2 Materials: .......................................................................................................................20 Results......................................................................................................................................23 4.1 Results for NDVI change:..............................................................................................23 4.2 Tasseled Cap analysis results:........................................................................................26 4.3 System dynamic analysis result: ....................................................................................30 4.3.1 The population change over time:...........................................................................32 4.3.2 Water demand and supply in upstream and downstream catchments: ...................32 Discussion................................................................................................................................35 5.1 Spatial changes of vegetation: .......................................................................................35 5.1.1 Vegetation cover changes inside and outside TBP:................................................35 5.1.2 Vegetation cover changes between farmland and natural harvesting area: ............36 5.1.3 Vegetation cover changes following type of the soil:.............................................37 5.2 Temporal changes of vegetation:...................................................................................37 5.2.1 Vegetation cover changes due to rainfall and temperature changes:......................37 5.2.2 Vegetation cover changes due to Floods events during study period:....................38 5.2.3 Vegetation Cover Change due to Rapid Population Growth:.................................38 5.2.4 Water availability in Teesta River and vegetation cover changes:.........................39 Limitation.................................................................................................................................40 Conclusion ...............................................................................................................................42 Appendix..................................................................................................................................43 References................................................................................................................................52 i Md. Azizur Rahman List of Table Table 1 Catchments Area of Teesta river (in sq. km) ................................................................4 Table 2 Comparison between Gajoldoba & Dalia barrage and related irrigation projects........6 Table 3 Major Tributaries of Teesta River ................................................................................7 Table 4 Different drought Index comparison (Chang et al., 2010)..........................................14 Table 5 Tasseled cap coefficients for Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM)..................................19 Table 6 Tasseled cap coefficients for Landsat 7 ETM+ ..........................................................19 Table 7 Satellite data used in the current study .......................................................................21 Table 8 Band specification for TM..........................................................................................21 Table 9 Band specification for ETM+ .....................................................................................21 Table 10 Land cover classification relatively to NDVI values................................................24 Table 11 Overview of satellites/sensors useful for monitoring water scarcity........................40 List of figure Figure 1 Location map of the study area ...............................................………………………5 Figure 2 A flow chart showing the various stages of a modelling process (Liu, 2009) ..........10 Figure 3 Architecture of spatial system dynamics approach…………………………………12 Figure 4 Schematic diagram for data analysis .....................................................................…17 Figure 5 NDVI comparison between 1989-2010……………………………………….........23 Figure 6 NDVI statistics comparison ‘between’ 1989-2010…………………………………24 Figure 7 Land cover classification relatively to NDVI values and changes over time………25 Figure 8 Land cover classes relatively to NDVI value change over time……………............26 Figure 9 Tasseled cap composite map and change over time………………………………..27 Figure 10 Wetness comparisons between 1989-2010………………………………………..28 Figure 11 Comparison between NDVI and Tasseled cap greenness component…………….29 Figure 12 Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) for the study…………………………………….....31 Figure 13 The Population change in upstream and downstream catchments………………...32 Figure 14 Water demands and water available in upstream and downstream catchments over time…………………………………………………………………………………………...33 Figure 15 Availability of water in downstream related to the Teesta River water outtake proportion in upstream.....................................................................................................34 Figure 16 NDVI comparisons between inside and outside TBP………………………..........36 Figure 17 Comparisons between farmland and natural harvested samples
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