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The All-Electric Commute: an Assessment of the Market Potential for Station Cars in the San Francisco Bay Area Robert Cervero Al

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The All-Electric Commute: an Assessment of the Market Potential for Station Cars in the San Francisco Bay Area Robert Cervero Al The All-Electric Commute: An Assessment of the MarketPotential for Station Cars in the San Francisco Bay Area Robert Cervero Alfred Round Carma Reed Brian Clark Working Paper UCTCNo. 249 The University of California Transportation Center University of California Berkeley, CA 94720 The University of California Transportation Center The University of California Center activities. Researchers Transportation Center (UCTC) at other universities within the is one of ten regional units region also have opportunities mandated by Congress and to collaborate with UCfaculty established in Fall 1988 to on selected studies. support research, education, and training in surface trans- UCTC’seducational and portation. The UCCenter research programs are focused serves federal Region IX and on strategic planning for is supported by matching improving metropolitan grants from the U.S. Depart- accessibility, with emphasis ment of Transportation, the on the special conditions in California Department of Region IX. Particular attention Transportation (Caltrans), and is directed to strategies for the University. using transportation as an instrument of economic Based on the Berkeley development, while also ac- Campus, UCTCdraws upon commodatingto the region’s existing capabilities and persistent expansion and resources of the Institutes of while maintaining and enhanco Transportation Studies at ing the quality of life there. Berkeley, Davis, Irvine, and Los Angeles; the Institute of The Center distributes reports Urban and Regional Develop- on its research in working ment at Berkeley; and several papers, monographs, and in academic departments at the reprints of published articles. Berkeley, Davis, Irvine, and It also publishes Access, a Los Angeles campuses. magazine presenting sum- Faculty and students on other maries of selected studies. For University of California a list of publications in print, campuses may participate in write to the address below. Universityof California TransportationCenter 108 NavalArchitecture Building Berkeley, California 94720 Tel: 510/643-7378 FAX:510/643-5456 Thecontents of this report reflect the viewsof the author whois responsible for the facts and accuracyof the data presentedherein. Thecontents do not necessarilyreflect the official viewsor policies of the State of Californiaor the U.S. Departmentof Transporta~on.This report does not constitute a standard, specification~or regulation. The All-Electric Commute: Aa Assessment of the Market Potential for Station Cars in the San Francisco Bay Area Robert Cervero with Alfred Round Carma Reed Brian Clark NationalTransit Access Center Institute of Urbanand RegionalDevelopment Universityof Californiaat Berkeley Berkeley, CA94720 Working Paper December 1994 UCTC No. 249 The University of California Transportation Center University of California at Berkeley This paper was producedwith support from the California Departmentof Transportation through the University of California Transportation Center and CalStart TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary V Chapter One Introduction: Station Cars and Market Demand 1 1.1. Station Cars: Filling a Market Niche 1 1.2. Purpose of Research 3 1.2t. Potential Benefits of Station Cars 4 1.3.1. Benefits to Transit Agencies 5 1.3.2. Environmental Benefits 6 !.3.3. Energy Conservation Benefits 8 1.3.4. Other Social Benefits 8 1.4. Potential Costs of Station-Car Initiatives 10 1.5. A Receptive Policy Environment for Station Cars 11 1.6. Demonstrations and Studies on the Market Demandfor Station Cars 13 1.7. Research Focus and Report Outline 14 Chapter Two Re.search Methodologyand Data Sources 17 2.1. Research Approach 17 2.2. Field Testing and Surveying of the Station Car 18 2.2.1. Acquiring a Mini-EV 18 2.2.2. Recruiting Participants 18 2.2.3. Designing a Questionnaire 22 2.2.4. Scheduling and Conducting Field Tests 23 2.3. Estimating Market DemandPotential 31 2.4. Summary 33 Chapter Three Evaluation of the Station-Car Concept by Bay Area Workers and Residents 35 3.1. Introduction 35 3.2. BackgroundCharacteristics of Survey Respondents 35 3.2.1. Demographicand Occupation Profiles 35 3.2.2. Transportation Characteristics 35 3.2.3. Midday and Extra-Work Trip-Making 37 3..’t. Overall Evaluation of the Station-Car Concept 4O 3.3.1. Three Best and Worst Features of the Kewet Station Car 4O 3.3.2. Rating of KewetStation-Car Features 41 3.4. Likelihood of Using Station Car 42 3.4.1. Interest in Station Cars by Participant Characteristics 44 3.4.2. Interest in Station Car by Travel Distance 45 3.4.3. Predictive ModeIof Likelihood of Station-Car Use 45 3.5. Willingness to Pay for Station-Car Services 47 3.6. Travel TimeDifferential 5O 3.7’. Summary 52 Chapter Four Estimate of the Market Demandfor Station Cars on the Bay Area Rapid Transit System 53 4.1. Introduction 53 4.2. Criteria for Estimating Candidates Trips for BART/Station-Car Commuting 54 4.3. Initial Estimates of Candidate Station-Car WorkTrips 55 4.4. Adjusted Estimate of Station-Car Trips 57 4.5. Potential EnvironmentalBenefits of Station Cars 59 4.6. Conclusion 6O Chapter Five Towards Station-Car Implementation 61 5.1. Summary 61 5.2. Initiating a Demonstration Program 62 5.3. Close 63 References 64 Appendix A: Advertisements Used in RecmkingParticipants 67 Appendix B: Copy of the Station-Car Survey Instrument 69 Appendix C: 79 C.1. Origin-Destination Matrix of Donut-to-Donut Station-Car Trips 79 C.2. Origin-Destination Matrix of Hole-to-Donut Station-Car Trips 81 C.3. Origin-Destination Matrix of Donut-to-Hole Station-Car Trips 83 C.4. Origin-Destination Matrix of Total Station-Car Trips 85 Appendix D: 87 D.1. Donut-to-Donut Station-Car Trips BetweenStation Classes, Home-Endto Work-End Stations 87 Do2. Donut-to°Hole Station-Car Trips Between Station Classes, Home-Endto Work-End Stations 87 D.3. Hole-to-Donut Station-Car Trips BetweenStation Classes, Home-Endto Work-End Stations 88 List of Maps 2.1. Location of BARTStations where Station-Car Test Drives were Conducted 2O 2.2. Five Surveyed WorkSites Near the Concord and Pleasant Hill BARTStations 26 2.3. Three Surveyed WorkSites Near the Planned East Dublin BARTStation 27 2.4. City of Fremont WorkSite in Relation to the Fremont BARTStation 28 2.5. Kaiser WorkSite in Relation to the MacArthur BARTStation 29 2.6. Circuit Routes Driven by Survey Participants at the Fremont and Lafayette BARTStations 32 List of Photos 2.1 Field Test Drive of the Kewet El-Jet Near the Lafayette BARTStation 25 2.2. Arrival of Survey Participant at the Fremont BARTStation 25 2.3. Researcher Discussing Test Drive with Survey Participant at the Lafayette BARTStation 30 2.4. Participant Filling out Questionnaire Inside the Kewet upon Completing the Test Drive 30 List of Tables 2.1. Companies Whose Workers Participated in the Work-End Station-Car Tests and Surveys 21 3.1. Occupations of Survey Respondents 36 3.2. Typical CommuteModes of Survey Respondents 36 3.3. Free Parking and Work-Place Distance from BART 37 3.4. Modes Taken for Non-WorkTrips: Employment Site Respondents 38 3.5. Modes Taken for Non-Work Trips: Home-EndRespondents 38 3.6. Extra-Work Characteristics of Respondents’ Trips: EmploymentSites 39 3.7. Extra-Work Characteristics of Respondents’ Trips: Home-EndBART Sites 39 3.8. Three Best and Three Worst Features of Station Car Cited by Survey Respondents 41 3.9. Ratings of KewetStation Car: Employmentvs. Residential Sites 42 3.10. Likelihood of Using Station Car 44 3.11. Likelihood of Using Station Car and Distance from BARTStation 46 3.12. Binomial Logit Modelfor Predicting the Likelihood of Station-Car Use 46 3.13. Results on Willingness to Pay for Round-Trip BART/Station-Car"Package" 47 3.14. Difference Between Respondents’ Willingness to Pay for Round-Trip Station-Car/BART "PackageR and Round-Trip BARTFare 48 3.15. What Respondents Estimate They Currently Pay for Round-Trip Commute 49 3.16. Difference BetweenRespondents’ Willingness to Pay for Round-Trip Station Car/BARTfor Round-Trip "Package" and Estimated Current Round-Trip CommuteCost 49 3.17. Comparison Between Current One-Way Commute Time and Projected One-WayBART/Station-Car "Package" Time 51 4.1o Numberof Station-Car Trips per Day: Access to HomeStations, Egress from WorkStations, and Total Trips 56 4.2. Estimated Prior Modesof Commutingfor Station-Car Trips 60 in List of Tables (continued) C.1. Origin-Destination Matrix of Donut-to-Donut Station-Car Trips 79 C.2. Origin-Destination Matrix of Hole-to-Donut Station-Car Trips 81 C.3. Origin-Destination Matrix of Donut-to-Hole Station-Car Trips 83 C.4. Origin-Destination Matrix of Total Station-Car Trips 85 List of Figures 3.!. Ratings of Station Cars for One End of a Rail Commute 43 3.2. Ratings of Station Cars for TwoEnds of a Rail Commute 43 4.1. Distribution of Station-Car Trips BetweenStation Classes, Home-Endto Work-End Stations 58 D.1. Donut-to-Donut Station-Car Trips BetweenStation CIasses, Home-Endto Work-End Stations 87 D.2. Donut-to-Hole Station-Car Trips BetweenStation Classes, Home-Endto Work-End Stations 87 D.3. Hole-to-Donut Station-Car Trips BetweenStation Classes, Home-Endto Work-End Stations 88 iv Executive Summary Electric station cars have the potential of filling an important market niche -- namely, providing on-call, door-to-door access to and from rail transit stations as well as middayautomobility for those whopatronize transit. They would make getting from hometo work via rail transit virtually seamless. Their greatest promise is in the suburbs. In the San Francisco Bay Area, there are thousands of jobs beyond walking distance of suburban BARTstations. Given the choice of driving from home to work or taking BARTand transferring to a bus to reach jobs, most suburban workers choose the former. The availability of free parking at the workplace and the generally poor quality of manysuburban bus services reinforce this overwhelmingpreference for solo commuting.
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