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Baird Perspectives: Cycling Industry Outlook

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Baird Perspectives: Cycling Industry Outlook BAIRD PERSPECTIVES Cycling Industry Outlook How the micro-mobility and fitness revolution is impacting the bike industry. In This Report Important trends impacting the cycling industry The competition is mobilizing Winning brands will break away from the Peloton Executive Summary There is a micro-mobility and segments, especially indoor fitness revolution millennials, unfolding. On the surface, • The rise of Direct to these appear to be separate Consumer (“DTC”) revolutions, but they are oriented models with interrelated and have inherent competitive important implications for advantages, the bike industry. The way • A pronounced wealth consumers transport “multiplier themselves, the way they phenomenon” driving experience purchasing and above average growth in using a bike and the way the high-end / premium they train on a bike is segments of the outdoor undergoing a radical market, and • transformation. As a result, An increasing perception consumer perceptions and that fitness, wellness, the definition of a “bike” will access and connectivity likely never be the same. As are the new luxury. Given the rapid pace the bike industry undergoes of industry change, tectonic shifts, new and Given the rapid pace of innovative entrants will industry change, there will there will emerge and consumer undoubtedly be winners and undoubtedly be preferences and losers. While it will be winners and losers. expectations will change, difficult to determine how which will redefine the things unfold, several competitive landscape. industry actors will likely emerge big winners, Key factors impacting the including Specialized, Trek, bike industry are the Canyon and Wahoo. following: • The rise of the indoor For the winners, there will bike training and electric likely be multiple options for bike (“e-bike”) adjacent strategic categories, partnerships or exit • A growing need to opportunities. We will reduce purchase explore several potential experience pain points options at the end of this for all consumer report. 2 Important Trends Impacting the Cycling Industry 1) INDUSTRY The traditional (human profitability. For now, the CONSOLIDATION IS powered or “acoustic”) bike market appears stable, at market is essentially flat to least for the top players. So, LIKELY TO ACCELERATE declining, and there are what is next? To paraphrase limited ways any one brand author Joseph Heller: The Big Four U.S. bike brands can increase sales and profit: — Trek, Specialized, Giant • Make the pie bigger by and Cannondale are increasing the size of the “Things right now are currently represented in consumer base, more than half (52 percent) about as good as they • Expand product of U.S. independent bike can possibly be offerings, either by dealers (“IBD” or “IBDs”), without getting a entering new categories according to Georger Data or creating new niches whole lot worse than Services, and likely account within existing they already are.” for a much higher share of categories, sales. These Big Four brands • Bypass the traditional There are several important have forged a dominant supply chain, by end- unfolding dynamics that market position by running retailers and could disrupt the industry, establishing exclusive or selling products direct to accelerate consolidation and, semi-exclusive positions with consumers, perhaps, unseat the select IBDs which limits • Win market share from incumbent players. The consumers’ brand and competitor, and / or, upcoming contraction and product choices at retail. • Increase the retail consolidation in the supplier However, they do not footprint, a difficult and side of the industry will be behave collectively (invoking expensive move given defined by five important antitrust issues) and fiercely how power is balanced in factors: compete among themselves the supply chain. • A finite and declining and with numerous smaller number of IBDs, performance bike brands. None of the above options • The rise of direct e-bike This status quo competitive are possible without competitors and the dynamic has been ongoing significant investment or electric bike dealer since the late 1990s. impacts to long-run 3 (“EBD” or “EBDs”) demands. This will include undeniable and significantly channel, advanced e-bike features decrease the barriers to • The rise of internet that ensure a high-quality cycling and create commerce, outdoor experience; longer opportunities to explore for • Increasing product battery life, more power and a much larger population. In complexity, and improved acoustic-like ride the past, a 20 to 30-mile ride • A shortage and fierce feel will be critical factors. In may have seemed daunting fight for intellectual addition, e-bike suppliers are and unattainable, but now a talent. adding integrated cutting- much longer ride is possible. edge GPS and proprietary E-bikes also allow older 2) E-BIKES ARE COMING software, including artificial cyclists to join their local “In five years, ten years intelligence (“AI”) capabilities group rides and remain customers will come in (our that balance remaining engaged in cycling stores) saying ‘I’m looking for battery with mapping and communities, helping to a bike’ and they’ll mean an e- topography capabilities to promote the spirit of cycling bike.” — Noel Kegel, resident ensure ride completion prior and open longer more of Wheel and Sprocket to battery life expiration. For adventurous rides to more Group the e-bike segment, the old people with disparate acoustic gold-standard abilities and fitness levels. For more than twenty years attributes of lower weight the primary factors driving and increased stiffness will the premium traditional bike no longer be key consumer market segment have been drivers since greater power increasingly lighter and and battery life are the more higher performing bike prominent differentiators. frames and components. This This shift is also impacting trend is expected to hold for micro-mobility with the foreseeable future and companies like Cake, continues to be an important founded by POC founder driver of differentiation. Stefan Ytterborn, creating However, a significant shift in unique electric motorcycles consumer perceptions and that blend the best of e-bikes technology in the e-bike and trail motor bikes. segment is changing the There are also added conversation. How and why Advancements in e-bike benefits for the avid cyclist, bikes are marketed and sold technology are rapidly including the ability to to consumers has been changing consumer complete a great workout impacted and former perceptions of e-bikes and while moving faster, strengths are now the total available market. meaning more ground vulnerabilities for both No longer are e-bikes clunky covered with the same manufacturers and IBDs and devoid of snappy road or physical benefit in an wedded to the acoustic only trail feel. Instead the latest increasingly busy and hectic bike segment. The key to crop of e-mountain, road and world. They also serve as a future success will be gravel bikes are virtually great form of physical innovation and design that indistinguishable from their therapy and recovery. For addresses changing acoustic counterparts. The example, pro freeride consumer needs and advantages of an e-bike are mountain biker Paul 4 Basagoita, who was doubts in some IBD circles. Intelligence. The growth and paralyzed after a crash at the However, the e-bike market scale of the e-bike market 2015 Red Bull Rampage, has has already built access for has caught the attention of turned to e-bikes to help consumers to the products the Big Four bike brands, with therapy and give him they want to buy through the with Trek President John the freedom he once felt e-bike only dealer network, Burke addressing it in his riding trails. Although there and e-bikes represent a open letter to the bike may always be select places much-needed growth business in February 2019: cyclists cannot ride an e-bike opportunity for IBDs. Given due to legislation, category these many advantages and “America is just at the growth has become a trends, according to Rick beginning of its E-Bike virtuous cycle. As usage Vosper of Bicycle Retailer, e- Revolution… In good retailers increases, so does demand bikes are not the “Next Big in the U.S., e-bikes now for more places to ride. Thing” they are the “Right represent more than 10 This Minute Big Thing” and percent of total sales. We Broader non-cycling trends gaining momentum quickly. could be looking at a are also creating a perfect The U.S. is at the beginning business in the near future inflection point for the e-bike of the e-bike revolution that where e-bikes represent 30 segment. Generations of represents a potentially percent or more of sales. It is casual enthusiasts and enormous market safe to say that e-bikes could competitive amateur opportunity. represent a greater growth athletes are changing the opportunity than mountain way they think about Currently, China is the most bikes did in the late 80s and exercise and the long-term dominant market for e-bike early 90s or carbon road impact on their joints. The sales, representing bikes in the early 2000s.” popularity and boom in approximately 90 percent of running participation has the global market, while the recently leveled off as older U.S. represents between 1 generations deal with and 2 percent, per Deloitte. injuries from years of While the global e-bike constant pounding and market is large at younger generations become approximately $16 billion, more attune to the potential the U.S. e-bike market is still toll. Given the reduced small and fragmented, based physiological impact of on Allied Market Research. cycling, the category is However, the U.S. market is experiencing increased beginning to heat up. indoor and outdoor According to NPD data, U.S. consumer participation. e-bike sales jumped more In addition, e-bike growth is than 91 percent from 2016 largely incremental, meaning Despite these positive to 2017 and then another 72 access to a larger consumer secular trends, including percent from 2017 to 2018.
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