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Employment in Poland 2009 Entrepreneurship for Work

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Employment in Poland 2009 Entrepreneurship for Work Employment in Poland 2009 Entrepreneurship for work Edited by Maciej Bukowski Warsaw 2010 Authors Editor: Maciej Bukowski, PhD Part I Maciej Bukowski, PhD Piotr Lewandowski Part II Sonia Buchholtz Łukasz Skrok Part III Jan Gąska Piotr Lewandowski Part IV Maciej Bukowski, PhD Horacy Dębowski Co-operation: Maciej Lis, Maciej Małysz, Andrzej Żurawski All opinions and conclusions included in this publication constitute the authors’ views and do not necessarily refl ect the offi cial position of the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy. This report was prepared as part of the project Analysis of the labour market processes and social integration in Poland in the context of economic policy carried out by the Human Resources Development Centre, co-fi nanced by the European Social Fund and initiated by the Department of Economic Analyses and Forecasts at the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy, by: Institute for Structural Research (Instytut Badań Strukturalnych) Rejtana 15, r. 24/25 02-516 Warszawa, Poland e-mail: [email protected] www.ibs.org.pl Reytech Rejtana 15, r. 25 02-516 Warszawa, Poland e-mail: [email protected] www.reytech.pl Field survey: ASM Market Research and Analysis Centre Ltd. Grunwaldzka 5, 99-301 Kutno Cover design, typesetting and editing graphic studio Temperówka www.temperowka.pl This publication was co-fi nanced by the European Union under the European Social Fund © Copyright by Human Resources Development Centre ISBN: 978-83-61638-17-9 5 Introduction 7 Part I Labour market in the business cycle 41 Part II Quality of working life – traditional and modern sectors of the economy 91 Part III Procedures and regulations – on hirings and dismissals 131 Part IV Social dialogue in the changing labour market 177 Recommendations for social and economic policy 181 Methodological Appendix 193 Bibliography Introduction The report ‘Employment in Poland 2009 – Entrepreneurship for Work’ is the fi fth edition of the Employment in Poland series, a thorough study of the most signifi cant processes occurring in the Polish and European labour markets. We hope that, as with previous editions, it will be an interesting and inspiring read, useful in your work and research. Part I is devoted to the analysis of cyclical characteristics of the Polish labour market, presented in comparison with the EU and OECD economies. We examine the reaction of employment, unemployment and economic activity to economic fl uctuations, in order to fi nd out to what extent economic changes infl uence the labour market in Poland and other EU countries, especially New Member States. In this context, it is particularly important to compare the course and impact of the 2008-2009 crisis with the Russian crisis of 1998 and the economic downturn of 2001-2002. This analysis serves as the basis for the identifi cation of shocks that have caused the most signifi cant fl uctuations in the Polish labour market and for the analysis of the nature of changes induced by these shocks. We outline the dynamics of the labour market fl uctuations, followed by the description of the role that labour market and product mar- ket institutions play in adaptation to changing economic conditions. This provides the basis for further analyses in the subsequent parts of the report. Part II addresses the issues of the long-term structural transformation of the Polish economy and its consequences for the labour mar- ket in its economic, social and institutional dimension. The starting point is the analysis of the scope and direction of changes in the sectoral structure of employment in Poland between 1996 and 2007, followed by the comparison with highly developed countries, especially the EU15, and other countries at a similar level of development (NMS). The examination of between-sector fl ows of labour, changes in the productivity of the Polish economy and individual sectors is used to identify areas where productivity diff ers from other countries. This enables deeper refl ection on the nature of the convergence of the Polish economy and the Polish labour mar- ket, and pinpointing the areas in which results achieved by Poland could be improved, when compared with other countries in the region. Finally, in Part II we present an analysis of the impact of structural changes on labour market performance with regard to the adaptability of workers and the quality of working life. In Part III, we analyse labour market fl ows on the Polish labour market and compare them with the situation in other countries. We present several measures of fl ows to quantify comprehensively the dynamics of these labour markets. Particularly important are the decompositions of unemployment fl uctuations into contributions of hirings and dismissals, which enable the identifi cation of chan- nels through which shocks aff ect the labour market in various countries. We expect these diff erences to depend on institutions, so in the second chapter we assess the impact of institutions of product and labour markets on the intensity of fl ows. We also discuss how the institutions crucial for labour market fl ows evolved in Poland and other OECD countries in 1996-2009. Therefore, the third part of this study brings a more thorough presentation of links between institutions and fl uctuations in the labour market mentioned in Parts I and II. Part IV discusses the crucial element of the institutional system of the labour market, i.e. social dialogue (collective bargaininbg) and its signifi cance in the evolving labour market in Poland. We present a detailed analysis of issues often discussed in the literature but rarely mentioned in Poland. This part provides important elaboration of the institutional analysis presented in Part I-III of this study, describ- ing how the previously explained processes have infl uenced the social dialogue in Poland. Our analysis begins with description of the interdependences between the parties of social dialogue, both in the light of economic theory and in the international context. We present and evaluate the model of social dialogue in Poland, with special attention paid to the activities of the Tripartite Commis- sion for Socio-Economic Aff airs, but also scrutinising the issues of autonomous dialogue and workers’ representation. The report is completed with conclusions and recommendations how the adaptability of the Polish economy can be improved, es- pecially with regard to the institutional environment of the labour market. These policy prescriptions aim at mitigating the adverse social and economic impact of cyclical fl uctuations and structural changes and increasing the potential for higher productivity growth and better international competitiveness at the same time. Part I. Labour market in the business cycle Authors: Maciej Bukowski Piotr Lewandowski Employment in Poland 2009 Labour market in the business cycle I. 11 Introduction 12 1. Global economic crisis and changes on the Polish labour market 12 1.1. Recent changes on the labour market 17 1.2. Adjustments of working time, size and structure of employment in 2008-2010 20 1.3. Labour market policy response to 2008-2009 crisis in European countries 23 2. Polish labour market in the business cycle 23 2.1. Cyclical characteristics of labour market in Poland and other European countries 31 2.2. Sources of cyclical fl uctuations in Poland and NMS8 countries 37 2.3. Institutional determinants of adjustment to macroeconomic shocks 39 Summary 8 Employment in Poland 2009 Labour market in the business cycle I. LIST OF TABLES 12 Table I.1. GDP growth dynamics between 2006 and 2010, quarterly, year on year, seasonality adjusted (in percent). 12 Table I.2. Dynamics of real exports between 2006 and 2010, quarterly, year on year, seasonality adjusted (in percent). 14 Table I.3. The contribution of particular sectors to changes in employment between the fi rst quarter of 2008 and the fi rst quarter of 2010 in Poland, EU New Member States and EU15 (in percent). 21 Table I.4. Number of countries undertaking specifi c measures to mitigate the crisis on the labour market. 26 Table I.5. Cyclical variability of GDP, employment, unemployment, labour supply and hours worked in European countries between 1992 and the second quarter of 2010. 38 Table I.6. Labour market institutions and their impact on the depth and persistence of labour market shocks. LIST OF BOXES 18 Box I.1. Decomposition of changes in the total labour utilisation (in hours) – methodology. 31 Box I.2. Decomposition of cyclical fl uctuations – methodology. LIST OF FIGURES 13 Figure I.1. Activity and employment rates (left axis) and unemployment rate (right axis) of population aged 15-64 in Poland, between 2006 and 2nd quarter of 2010 (in percent). 13 Figure I.2. Changes in the number of employed (horizontal axis) and unemployed women (vertical axis) between the 1-2 quarter of 2008 and 1-2 quarter 2010 in European countries (in percent). 13 Figure I.3. Changes in the number of employed (horizontal axis) and unemployed men (vertical axis) between the 1-2 quarter of 2008 and 1-2 quarter 2010 in European countries (in percent). 14 Figure I.4. Net balance of job creation and job destruction by occupation in Poland in 2009 (in percentage points). 15 Figure I.5. Rate of GDP growth, short-term and long-term unemployment rate between the fi rst quarter of 1998 and the second quarter of 2001; the fi rst quarter of 2007 and second quarter of 2010 (left and right fi gure respectively), in percent. 16 Figure I.6. Activity and employment rates (left axis) and unemployment rate (right axis) of population aged 15-64 in European countries in the fi rst half of 2010 (in percent). 16 Figure I.7. Activity rate of population aged 15-24 and 25-29 by gender (in percent).
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