The Political State of Play
The current political scene going into General Election 2010
April 2010
Contacts: [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Where the parties stand The state of play after the 2005 election
2005 Election: Labour’s Landslip - Majority (67)
Share of votes (GB) Seats Share of votes (GB) Seats 8% 13 (+2) 62 18 (10%) 197 23% 33% (31%) (+4) (0%) 356 (55%) 36% (-6)
Sources: “Explaining Labour’s Landslide, ELSL, Explaining Labour’s Landslip”, Worcester & Mortimore (+Baines) Conservatives have held a lead since February 2008 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 2005 Howard elected General Brown as PM (Nov 03) Election (Jun 07) 50 Cameron elected (Dec 05)
40 35% 30 30%
20 21%
10
0 Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter, (March 2010: 832 adults) Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor But latest voting intentions – nationally and in marginals - suggest a hung parliament… How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? All certain to vote All certain to vote in nationally (53%) marginals (56%) Other Other 14% 11% LD Con 35% Con 11% 37% LD 21%
4% swing 5% swing 41% Lab 30% Lab 2010 Con lead = +5 2010 Con lead = -4 2005 Con lead = -3 2005 Con lead = -14 Base: All certain to vote nationally (833) and in key marginals (those needing a 5-9% swing to get a Con majority (567); Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Fieldwork for both surveys conducted 19th-22nd March 2010 …And almost two-thirds of voters in key marginals expect a hung parliament (even if they prefer a majority government) Thinking ahead to the next general election, which of the following outcomes do you think is most likely?
A Conservative majority government 24% A hung parliament with the Conservatives as the biggest party 37%
A Labour majority government 10% A hung parliament with Labour as the biggest party 22%
A Lib Dem majority government *% Expect a… A hung parliament with the Lib Dems Majority government: 34% as the biggest party *%
Base: 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010 Hung parliament: 59%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor So all still to play for: voters in marginal constituencies are still open to persuasion Have you definitely decided to vote for the xxx party or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote?
Conservative voters Labour voters Lib Dem voters
Don’t Don’t Definitely know know May decided 1% change 4% May mind 23% change mind 40% 37%
59% 60%
77%
May Definitely Definitely change decided decided mind Base: All adults 18+ in marginal constituencies naming one of the three main parties (703), Conservatives: 294, Labour: 312, Lib Dems: 99. 19th–22nd March 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI And the impact of the expenses scandal falling away as election gets closer? Suppose at the general election, the candidate for the party you would normally vote for was a sitting MP who had been caught up in the expenses scandal. Which of the following two options would you be most likely to do?
May 2009 March 2010
Vote for the party you want to win the election, even if it meant voting for an 36% individual caught up in the expenses 53% scandal
Vote for a different candidate who was not caught up in the expenses 52% scandal, even though this would 38% mean voting against the party that you want to win the election
12% Don’t know 9%
Base: 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010 Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 29-31 May 2009 Time for a change? Three-quarters want a fresh team of leaders “Britain needs a fresh team of leaders”
Don’t know Strongly disagree 18% 6%1%
Tend to disagree 12% Strongly agree
Neither/nor 4%
Tend to agree 55% 21%
76%
Base: 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor But slowly growing doubts about Conservatives’ readiness to govern? To what extent do you agree or disagree that the Conservatives are ready to form the next Government? 60 58% 54% Agree 50% 49% 50 45% 41%
40 41% 40% 35% Disagree 30 36% 30% 29% 20
10
0 July 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Apr 09 Sep 09 Mar 10 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month; (March 2010: 1,503 adults) Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Cameron’s Conservatives are seen as less ready than Blair’s Labour in 1997 To what extent do you agree or disagree that the Conservatives/Labour are ready to form the next Government? Agree Disagree Labour in 1997 Conservatives in 2010 60 55% 49% 50 41% 40 33% 30 20
10 0 April 1997 March 2010
Base: 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,114 British adults, 8 April 1997 A third think Tories have the knowledge to run the economy but half do not The Conservatives do not have the knowledge needed to run the economy properly
Don’t know Strongly agree 4% 22% 37% Strongly disagree 16%
50% 21% Tend to agree 28% 9%
Tend to disagree Neither/nor
Base: 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor How the leaders compare For the first time, leaders are as important as policies in how people vote
I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the … party. Some people are attracted mainly by the policies of the party, some by the leaders of the party and some because they identify with the party as a whole. If you had a total of ten points to allocate according to how important each of these was to you, how many points would you allocate to the leaders of the party you intend voting for, how many to its policies, and how many to the party as a whole? 5 4.7 Policies 4.6 4.4 4.2 4 4.1 4 3.8 Leaders 3.9 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3 3.1
2.3 2.4 2.4 2.2 2 2.1 2 Parties 2.1 Mean scores shown
1 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: All giving a voting intention c.700 British adults each month (1,210 February 2010) Brown still has lowest approval ratings
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?
Clegg elected (Jan 08) Cameron
50 45% 42% 40 Clegg 34%
30 Brown % satisfied 20 Campbell
10
0 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month (1,503 March 2010) Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor While Cameron is also less popular than 18 months ago
Brown Cameron July ‘08 Jan’10 July ‘08 Jan ‘10 I like him and I like his party 18 20 35 27 I like him but I do not like his party 11 15 19 18 I do not like him but I like his party 21 19 8 12 I do not like him and I do not like his party 44 42 28 34 Don't know 5 5 11 9 Total like him 29 35 54 45 Total do not like him 65 61 36 46 Net like him -36 -26 +18 -1 Total like his party 39 39 43 39 Total do not like his party 55 57 47 52 Net like his party -16 -18 -4 -13 Net like him/like his party -52 -44 +14 -14
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 26th-28th January 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Cameron is still seen as the most capable Prime Minister Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister, Gordon Brown or David Cameron?
Don’t know 8% None 12% 38% David Cameron
Nick Clegg 12%
Gordon Brown 29%
Base: 1,533 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd February 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor With the best team of leaders
Which political party do you think has the best team of leaders to deal with the country’s problems? And leaving aside the leaders, which political party do you think has the best senior team to deal with the country’s problems? Team of leaders Senior team Other/None/DK Other/None/DK
28% 34% Con 31% 31% Con
9% 10% LD LD 29% 28% Lab Lab
Base: 750 from 1,533 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd February 2010 Base: 783 from 1,533 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd February 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor The debates will be important As you may know, for the first time in a general election campaign the leaders of the three main parties will debate key issues live on television in the run-up to the election. How important do you think the performance of the leaders in the debates will be in helping you to decide who to vote for?
Not at all important Very important
39% 19% 29%
Not very important 20% 60%
31%
Fairly important
Base: 1,533 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd February 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor And Cameron is expected to do best – but therefore has most to lose? And which leader do you expect to gain most public support as a result of these debates?
Don’t know
None 12% 3%
Nick Clegg 12% David Cameron 53%
20% Gordon Brown
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,533 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd February 2010 Key issues at the election The Conservatives have (just) overtaken Labour on having best policies overall – but no clear lead And which political party do you think has the best policies for the country as a whole?
40
30 29% 27% 20 16% 10
0 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month (1,533, February 2010) Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor The economy, healthcare and education are top election issues Looking ahead of the next General Election, which, if any, of these issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for? Change from All at 3% or above September 2009 Managing the economy 32% -7 Healthcare 26% +6 Education 23% +6 Asylum/immigration 14% +1 Taxation 12% +2 Unemployment 11% -2 Crime/ anti-soc. behaviour 8% +2 Benefits 7% +6 Care for older & disabled people 7% +7 Pensions 6% +1 Afghanistan 5% -1 Protecting natural env./climate change 5% -1 Housing 3% +1 Iraq 3% +1 3% Public transport/roads +2 3% Defence -3 Base: 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor The Tories are ahead on:
% who think issue is ‘very Labour0% Conservatives Lib Dems Other/None/Don’t know important’ in helping them decide how to vote Conservative lead over Labour 28% Asylum/immigration 17% +11 14 9% 46%
33% Crime & anti-social 12 23% behaviour 8% +10 37%
29% 18% +11 Defence 3 7% 46%
24% Reforming MPs 13% +11 expenses 1 14% 49%
Base: 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th to 22nd March 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor And Labour is seen as better on:
Labour Conservatives Lib Dems Other/None/Don’t know % who think issue is ‘very Conservative lead important’ in helping them over Labour decide how to vote 24% 33% Health 26 9% -9 34%
24% Unemployment 15 30% -6 10% 37%
24% Benefits 7 30% -6 7% 40%
11% Climate change 5 15% 17% -4 58% Base: 1,503 British adults 18+, 19-22 March 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor But no party has clear lead on the most important issue to voters – the economy Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?
Labour Conservatives Lib Dems Other/None/Don’t know
29% 36%
12% 26% Who does the British public trust on the economy? A third are happy with Darling as Chancellor
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Alistair Darling is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer?
Don’t know Satisfied
13% 36%
51%
Dissatisfied
Base: 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Net satisfaction with Chancellors since 1976
% Net satisfied 60 Labour Conservative Labour Healey 40 Brown
20 Howe Major 0
Clarke -20 Lawson Darling
-40
Lamont -60 1976 1981 1986 1992 1997 2003 2008
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month; (March 2010: 1,503 adults) Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor But will Osborne or Cable do better?
Who do you think would make the most Who do you think would make the most capable Chancellor, Labour’s Alistair Darling, capable Chancellor, Labour’s Alistair Darling the Conservatives’ George Osborne or the or the Conservatives’ George Osborne? Liberal Democrats’ Vince Cable?
None/DK George George Neither/DK Osborne Osborne 21% 25% 36% 34%
23% Vince 32% Cable Alistair Alistair 30% Darling Darling
Base: 735 from 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010 Base: 768 from 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Labour’s approach of delaying cuts is favoured
The Conservatives/some economists say that the national debt is the greatest threat to the economy and the deficit needs to be cut quickly, starting this year. Labour/other economists say that it should not be cut so soon as reducing public spending may stop the economic recovery. Which of these do you think is right?
Don’t know National debt is the greatest Neither 9% threat to the economy and the 5% deficit needs to be cut quickly, 30% starting this year
National debt should not be cut so soon as reducing 57% spending may stop recovery
Base: 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor NB. Half of the sample was asked about Conservatives and Labour approaches, half was asked about economists But the Conservatives are increasingly seen as better at getting value for public money Do you think a Labour or Conservative government would be most effective in getting good value for the public money it spends?
% Labour government % Conservative government % Other 50 Conservative government 42% 40
30 31% % Labour government 20
10 Other 4%
0 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month; (March 2010: 1,503 adults) Source: Ipsos MORI And a Conservative majority government seen as best for the economy And which of these alternatives do you think would be best for the UK economy?
A Conservative majority government 29% Con largest A hung parliament with the party best: 47% Conservatives as the biggest party 18%
A Labour majority government 19% Lab largest A hung parliament with Labour party best: 38% as the biggest party 19%
A Lib Dem majority government 1% Majority government: 49% A hung parliament with the Lib Dems 1% as the biggest party Hung Parliament: 38%
Base: 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor For information, visit the Ipsos MORI General Election Centre:
http://www.ipsos- mori.com/researchspecialisms/socialresearch/specareas/poli tics/generalelection2010.aspx
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