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Seasonal an Long-Term Variations of Wave Conditions in Estonian Coastal Waters

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Seasonal an Long-Term Variations of Wave Conditions in Estonian Coastal Waters Seasonal an long-term variations of wave conditions in Estonian coastal waters Inga Zaitseva-Pärnaste Tarmo Soomere Aim of the study • Understanding of the status and changes of the wave climate • Merge historical visual observations, instrumental measurements and modeled data • to reveal the – seasonal, – interannual, and – long-term changes in the basic wave properties in the Northern Baltic Proper Wave measurements in the Baltic Sea Instrumental data set 1978–2003 (Broman et al., 2006) Example of decadal variations Wave heights and periods The typical wave periods are 7 3–6 s for the open sea (2–4 s in coastal 6areas) 5 4 Almagrundet: open 3 sea Wave height [m] height Wave Broman et al., 2 Oceanologia 2006 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Mean wave period [s] Wave measuresement sites Wind data set Data set 1978–2001 1996–2002 (Kahma et al., 2003) Visual observations Data set 1954–2008 1978–2003 (Broman et al., 2006) Visual SMB-model observations 1966–2006 1954–1985 (Suursaar et al., 2008) Visual Ice Cover at observations Kihnu and Narva-Jõesuu 1954–2008 1950-2005 Diary example Day Time Direction Max / mean wave Height Torsvik et al, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 16, 351–363, 200 Time of observations • 3 times a day (1-2 times in autumn & winter) • 0700, 1300, 1900 Local Time ( UTC +2 hours) • From the 1960s 0900, 1500, 2100 Moscow Time ( UTC +3 hours) No problems with homogeneity Measured parameters • the type of the sea state, • the general appearance of the wave field, • the wave direction • the intensity of waves, • the maximum wave height • the mean wave height, • wave steepness, • length and • mean period Temporal distribution of days containing at least one sensible wave observation for Vilsandi, Pakri and Narva-Jõesuu . Percentage of days with at least one sensible wave observation in different months for Vilsandi (a), Pakri (b) and Narva-Jõesuu (c) Joint distribution of observed wave heights H and periods T at Vilsandi (a), Pakri (b) and Narva-Jõesuu ( c). 2-4 s period 3-5 s period Distributions of the occurrence of daily mean wave heights at Vilsandi (a), Pakri (b) and Narva-Jõesuu (c) The monthly mean wave height at Vilsandi (blue) , at Pakri (green) and at Narva-Jõesuu (red) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 Mean wave height, m 0.1 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month The annual mean wave height at Vilsandi (dark blue), The annualat Pa meankri (green), wave height at Narvaat Vilsandi-Jõesuu (dark (red) blue) , at Pakri (green), at Narva-Jõesuu (red) andand at atHarilaid Harilaid (light (light blue) blue) Complete mismatch 1.4 of decadal variability 1.2 Almost perfect match of 1 short-term variability 0.8 0.6 0.4 Observed wave height,wave Observed m 0.2 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Ice coverage at Kihnu (blue) and Narva-Jõesuu (red) 06-Jun 06-May 05-Apr 05-Mar 02-Feb 02-Jan 02-Dec 01-Nov 01-Oct 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 At the same time: The annual average wind speed (circles on solid line) gradually increases in 1978–2001 Broman, B. Soomere, T. Trends and extremes of wave fields in the north-eastern part of the Baltic Proper. Oceanologia, 2006, 48 (S), Fig 9 Main conclusions: • The typical wave periods are 3–6 s (2–4 s in coastal areas) • The monthly mean wave height follows the seasonal variation in wind speed • Synchronous, substantial decadal-scale variations in the entire region until 1985 • Drastic variations in wave intensity in 1985-2008 • The mean wind speed continues to increase over the area..
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