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The Effect of Confirmation Bias on Criminal Investigative Decision Making Walden University ScholarWorks Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies Collection 2015 The ffecE t of Confirmation Bias on Criminal Investigative Decision Making Wayne A. Wallace Walden University Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations Part of the Criminology Commons, Criminology and Criminal Justice Commons, and the Psychology Commons This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies Collection at ScholarWorks. It has been accepted for inclusion in Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Walden University College of Social and Behavioral Sciences This is to certify that the doctoral dissertation by Wayne A. Wallace has been found to be complete and satisfactory in all respects, and that any and all revisions required by the review committee have been made. Review Committee Dr. Kristen Beyer Committee Chairperson, Psychology Faculty Dr. David Kriska, Committee Member, Psychology Faculty Dr. Penny Devine, University Reviewer, Psychology Faculty Chief Academic Officer Eric Riedel, Ph.D. Walden University 2015 Abstract The Effect of Confirmation Bias in Criminal Investigative Decision Making by Wayne A. Wallace MA, The Chicago School of Professional Psychology, 2010 BA, Adams State College, 1986 Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Psychology Walden University March 2015 Abstract Confirmation bias occurs when a person believes in or searches for evidence to support his or her favored theory while ignoring or excusing disconfirmatory evidence and is disinclined to change his or her belief once he or she arrives at a conclusion. The purpose of this quantitative study was to examine whether emotionally charged evidence and evidence presentation order could influence an investigator’s belief in a suspect’s guilt. The study included 166 sworn police officers (basic training recruits, patrol officers, and criminal investigators) who completed online surveys in response to criminal vignettes across different scenarios to record their measure of guilt belief. Analysis of variance was used to assess the relationship between the 3 independent variables: duty assignment (recruit, patrol, investigator), scenario condition (child and adult sexual assault), and evidence presentation order (sequential, simultaneous, reverse sequential). The dependent variable was confirmation bias (Likert-scaled 0–10 guilt judgment). According to the study results, confirmation bias was least evident in criminal investigators with more experience and training, and both emotion and evidence presentation order can influence guilt judgment. The findings generalize to criminal investigators and attest to the importance of working to include and exclude suspects and to withhold judgment until all available evidence is analyzed. Investigators benefit from this study and through their improved decision making, society benefits as well. This study will contribute to the need for professional dialogue concerning objective fact finding by criminal investigators and avoiding incidents of wrongful conviction. The Effect of Confirmation Bias in Criminal Investigative Decision Making by Wayne A. Wallace MA, The Chicago School of Professional Psychology, 2010 BA, Adams State College, 1986 Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Psychology Walden University March 2015 Dedication For the greatest man I’ve known, who passed away late in this process. I hope you would be proud, Dad. For my bride, you understood my need to face a computer rather than a vacation, and your sacrifice, consideration, and unselfishness is truly one-of-a- kind. Without your unconditional love, support and encouragement, I would never have come close to completing this. I love you Laurie. For my precious Marley, may you one day understand that the price for success is high, but so is the reward. I love you to the moon… To the dedicated men and women of law enforcement who endeavor to persevere daily through difficult circumstances in an ever-changing social and criminal landscape, amongst a cadre of second guessers and critics; may you always search for truth and sustain the courage to speak it. “He who does not expect the unexpected will not detect it” Karl Popper Acknowledgements I owe an eternal debt of gratitude to my committee Chair, Dr. Kristen Beyer, who rescued me from near disaster and encouraged me to drive on. Her guidance, support, and understanding were invaluable and she has my everlasting thanks and respect. Dr. David Kriska is perhaps the best pure teacher I’ve ever had and as a methodologist he kept me straight (and square) when I tried to meander. Dr. Kriska is a credit to his profession and Walden University. Any success this dissertation may encounter is a reflection of the dedication, professionalism, knowledge and care of Dr.’s Beyer and Kriska. My academic advisor Mohammed Khan deserves special acknowledgement not only for his support and encouragement but also for his sage advice while navigating through rough waters. Thank you, Mohammed, for not letting go. Table of Contents List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... vi List of Figures................................................................................................................... vii Chapter 1: Introduction to the Study....................................................................................1 Introduction....................................................................................................................1 Background....................................................................................................................2 Problem Statement.........................................................................................................4 Literature Review...........................................................................................................7 Nature of the Study ......................................................................................................10 Purpose of the Study ....................................................................................................12 Research Questions......................................................................................................13 Theoretical and Conceptual Support............................................................................14 Expected Utility .................................................................................................... 15 Rational Choice..................................................................................................... 16 Prospect Theory .................................................................................................... 16 Bounded Rationality ............................................................................................. 17 Definitions....................................................................................................................19 Assumptions.................................................................................................................25 Limitations ...................................................................................................................26 Significance..................................................................................................................27 Summary......................................................................................................................28 Chapter 2: Literature Review.............................................................................................30 i Introduction..................................................................................................................30 Literature Search Strategy............................................................................................37 Theoretical Foundation ................................................................................................40 Rational Choice..................................................................................................... 40 Expected Utility .................................................................................................... 41 Prospect Theory .................................................................................................... 41 Social Functionalist Theory .................................................................................. 42 Bounded Rationality ............................................................................................. 43 Naïve Realism....................................................................................................... 44 Bias Blind Spot ..................................................................................................... 44 Information Processing Theory............................................................................. 46 Intuition................................................................................................................. 47 Heuristics and Biases ...........................................................................................
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