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US Multifamily Strategy & 2016 Update

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US Multifamily Strategy & 2016 Update US Multifamily Strategy & 2017 Outlook Jeff Adler Vice President, Matrix Jack Kern Director, Research and Publications Fall 2016 Our View Point Since November 2015…. We Laid Out a Pretty Positive Case for US Multifamily Investment: 1. US macroeconomic conditions, while not great, were good enough to generate job growth of ~150-200K jobs per month Enough to maintain MF occupancy and good, but probably decelerating, rent growth 2. Demand was a big tailwind, both Short and Long Term Job Formation, Demographics, Affordability, and Technological change were all combining for a positive perfect storm for the next 10-20 years 3. Supply was, relatively speaking, in check and peaking in ’16/’17- which would slow, but not stop, continued rent growth Supply surges are focused in major urban hubs of a select number of gateway and top tier cities, at very high rents 4. Oil price declines would be a net positive, but there would be regional pain- Houston, OKC, Denver, smaller oil patch 5. “18 Hour/Secondary” markets, and their emerging intellectual capital nodes represented a high probability way to target a position in US Multifamily that had good odds of generating capital appreciation with income Value Add was a strategy that had good odds of success, given the large price gap between Luxury and Middle Market rents in most markets 2 How do Things Look Fall 2016?….Little Has Changed The Outlook is Still Positive, but the risk of a Global Sovereign Debt Driven Macroeconomic Dislocation is still elevated: 1. Demand still looks really good, as does the Investment Thesis for “18 hour/Secondary” Markets & Value Add Sustained high occupancy on stabilized properties- 95.8% and marginally declining Decelerating, but Strong rent growth- ~4-5% still, but decelerating; especially in Houston, Denver, and San Fran; Structural components of demand are still big tailwinds as before Wage pressures in the US among skilled workers are increasing in our bifurcated economy 2. Supply is still, relatively speaking, in check and peaking in ’16/’17- which will slow, but not stop, continued rent growth No meaningful change in New supply pipeline from prior expectations- 279K in lease-up, 652K Under Construction (2.2% and 4.4% of total inventory) 3. Dislocation in Comm’l Real Estate Debt Markets, driven by regulatory influences, is restraining growth in new construction financing In addition, disruption in the CMBS market due to capital regulations, is encouraging private debt funds to enter, but at a higher cost These dislocations will extend the apartment rental growth up-cycle, absent a demand driven crack-up Debt availability and cost is more tied than ever to global financial markets, despite the steadying influence of the GSEs (50% debt market share, and able to do more with Green/Affordable/Small Balance/ Variable Rate Programs). Asset Value growth will be restrained, but not stopped, due to these cross-currents 3 Debt Maturity-Next Three Years 3,000 2,500 975 CMBS 2,000 723 CMBS 1,500 2,473 Loans Total 1,000 2,168 Loans Total 500 0 2016-2017 2018 4 How do Things Look Now?….Little Has Changed…Yet… The Outlook is Still Positive, but the risk of a Global Debt Driven Macroeconomic Dislocation has risen: 4. Global Macroeconomic concerns and slow, but rebounding US GDP growth, along with stretched equity market valuations, and coincident probable equity market volatility, are the chief reasons driving near term caution In a Deflationary, Low Yield, Central Bank driven Financial Market Environment Where Can An Investor Find Yield? INCOME PRODUCING US COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE Monetary Policy, and the Debt Surge it has engendered in the Govt & Publicly Traded corporate sector, has reached its limits (or very near its limits)— Pro-Growth Structural Government Policies are Needed; since 11/8 now a possibility Dependent Pace of Pro-Growth vs Anti-Growth policy implementation Pace of Interest rate increases in the 10 Yr T-bill relative to income growth will drive valuations US economy is the relative “one-eyed” man among the land of the blind- Europe, Japan, and a transforming China, that still has a lot of manufacturing capacity US Multifamily, and US Commercial Real Estate, is still the place to be, even if the ride remains at risk of a few potential transitory bumps in the road 5 Macroeconomic Outlook Matrix National Economic Outlook 3Q 2016 » CRE is subject to the trends in the greater economy but lags » Private sector employment jumped 301,000 in September and October according to the ADP survey » Initial claims for unemployment, a key indicator below 300,000 for 87 straight weeks (through late October), continuing to move lower » Employment growth is sub-trend, but not a surprise . Total Non-Farm payroll increased by 161,000 in Oct. Unemployment rate sits at 4.9% . Employment change for September revised up from 156,000 to 191,000 . Employment change for August revised up from 167,000 to 176,000 . Three-month average monthly gain of 176,000 » GDP increased at a SAAR of 2.9% in 3Q 2016, compared to 1.4% in 2Q 2016 . Third quarter GDP growth was 4.1% in 2013, 5.0% in 2014 and 2.0% in 2015 Source: BEA Gross Domestic Product; DOL Initial Unemployment Reports, BLS Employment Situation Reports; Moody’s Analytics; 7 GDP Definition: the value of goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used in production, adjusted for price changes Job Growth Sustained in Q2/Q3; Wage Growth Still Upward US Wage Pressure Increasing Job formation good, but a tad more volatile 4.0% 11.0% 600 500 Unemployment rate, % (R) 10.0% 3.5% 400 9.0% 300 3.0% 200 8.0% 100 2.5% 7.0% 0 2.0% -100 6.0% Monthly Change in Employment -200 (3-month MA, ths.) 1.5% Avg. hourly earnings, 5.0% -300 % change year ago (L) Jul-11 Jul-14 Jul-12 Jan-11 Jul-15 Nov-11 Jul-13 Sep-11 Jul-16 Mar-11 May-11 Jan-14 Jan-12 Nov-14 Sep-14 Nov-12 Jan-15 Sep-12 Jan-13 Jan-16 Nov-15 Sep-15 Nov-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-16 Mar-12 May-14 May-12 Mar-15 Mar-13 Mar-16 May-15 May-13 May-16 1.0% 4.0% Household Survey Establishment survey 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Moody’s Analytics, BLS, CPS 8 Household Spending, Income and Oil » Household spending fueled by modest income gains (2.8%) and low oil/energy prices, gains in apparel and restaurant receipts » Light vehicle sales at 18.0 million units (SAAR) in October, a year-over year decline of 1.6% » Consumer Confidence Index at 98.6 in October » September retail* sales increased 2.2% year-over-year » Inflation in services, deflation in goods » Federal Reserve remains on hold, but governors opinions mixed on rate increases » Current oil price closed at $44.85 compared to $45.66 three months ago . One year ago, oil prices about $51/barrel . Baker-Hughes U.S. oil rig count up by 12 to 569 (up from 332 in 1Q) from a high over 1,600 Source: The Conference Board, AutoData, U.S. Census, Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services, FOMC, WTI (NYMEX) *Retail sales and food services, excludes motor vehicle and parts 9 Increasing Debt Burdens Increase Financial System Risk Government & Publicly Traded Corporate Debt Loads are High and Increasing Monetary Policy Stimulus is at, or close to, the end of its limits Publicly Traded Corporations’ debt has been funding share buy-backs more than CapEx Tech and Energy had been the stimulus to private sector employment, both are moderating Low Interest Rates have allowed a rapid growth in unsustainable gov’t transfer payments Govt Policy has been anti-growth and credit rationing has raised hurdles to small business growth We need Global Pro-Growth Gov’t Fiscal policies; since 11/8/16 now a possibility A “Yellow” Traffic Signal Source: Moody’s Analytics, BLS, CPS 10 Inflation- Low, but not for Rent, Education, & Healthcare 7% 6% 5% 4% Education Rent 3% Health Care 2% CPI 1% 0% CPI Less Education, Health Care, and Rent -1% -2% -3% Source: Moody’s Analytics; BLS Notes: Growth numbers are YOY 6 month moving averages. CPI Less Health Care, Education and Rent is an estimate using the BLS document “Math calculations to better utilize CPI data” 11 Demographics & Real Estate Fundamentals Total Housing Supply Lags Demand Since the Recession 2,500,000 Housing Starts-Single family Housing Starts-Multifamily New Househole Formations 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Moody’s Analytics; U.S. Census Bureau 13 Real Estate Fundamentals: Demographics Favorable Demographics are in Multifamily’s favor over the long-term, especially in the younger aged cohort… U.S. Renter Population: Age 20-34 Cohort 71 70 69 Millions 68 67 66 65 Source: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC) 14 Homeownership Rates Declining Renter Households (Millions) Homeownership Rate U.S. Homeownership Rate by Age Cohort, 1994-2015 Percent 44 74% 90 65+ 80 42 72% 55-65 Renter Households 70 45-54 Homeownership Rate 40 70% 60 35-44 50 38 68% 40 36 66% >35 30 34 64% 20 10 32 62% 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 30 60% Overall >35 35-44 45-54 55-65 65+ Notes: Beginning in 2000, renter household data are the revised, consistent-vintage counts.
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