– evolve: could Union the for how scenarios of Europe Future the on a introduced Commission European the March, of first the On political parties The EU positions of the Dutch EU difficult. the on stance Dutch aclear-cut render would This government. next the form to time this needed be will parties by, go five to four maybe or anything are polls current if but Party), Labour and the liberals, right centre VVD, of the coalition (a parties of two consists government Dutch outgoing The exists. of opinions variety a EU concerned, is far as the as result, a As of 28). out 14 contenders serious least (at elections Dutch in the compete parties of amount political extraordinary an time EU, this the leave to desire that parties political two least at are there While elected. be will government an ‘anti-EU’ whether on focused has debate international of the much campaign, election Dutch the during debates in the a role played EU hardly has the year. Although this later and Germany in France elections upcoming of the precursor apossible as EU 15 in the upon looked March on are elections national Dutch of the results The – – Scenario 1 ‘Carrying on’ 1‘Carrying Scenario Scenario 3 ‘Those who want more do do more want who 3‘Those Scenario market’ single the but 2‘Nothing Scenario more’ the European Union the European on parties political Dutch 2017 MARCH five five , presenting White Paper Paper White Juncker’s scenarios. Specific policy area area policy Specific scenarios. Juncker’s linked to be extent some to can parties of 14 political views Dutch expressed The – – right wing) and the Socialist Party aspire aspire Party Socialist and the wing) right Political (theocratic, Party conservative Reformed the wing), left economically conservative, (socially Union Christian The 2. scenarios. of Juncker’s any under fall not do they EU, the to leave want parties these As too. EU the leave (ultimately) to desires democracy direct more favours that conservative), wing, (right for Democracy Forum party, political Anew PVV. the with acoalition form to refusing parties many political only, with votes of the of 20% an average to amounts lead this time, same the At polls. in most leading still currently and is for a‘Nexit’ calls (PVV), for Freedom Party the Wilders, of Geert party wing right (extreme) The 1. the in viewed be can parties political of the priorities of the overview detailed A more below. as demonstrated (other) categories in four reflected best are parties political Dutch of the however. EU positions The parties Dutch of the positions the with differ could scenarios the within choices Scenario 5 ‘Doing much more together’. more much 5‘Doing Scenario efficiently’ more less 4‘Doing Scenario Leaving the EU (2 parties: PVV,Leaving EU the (2 parties: Forum voorForum Democratie) A more intergovernmentalA more EU (4 parties: CU,(4 parties: SGP, SP, VNL) Mattermap .

Michiel Luining Analysis Clingendael Analysis

a more intergovernmental EU with the GroenLinks would be close to scenario 5 power of the European Commission being ‘Doing much more together’. D66 falls under diminished. A new right wing party, called the same scenario. In addition, D66 is also ‘‘For the Netherlands’’, wants to return to the close to scenario 3 ‘Those who want more European Economic Community. do more’.

The Socialist Party and For the Netherlands would primarily fall under scenario 2 ‘Nothing Multi-speed Europe but the single market’ and the Christian Union would in addition also be close to scenario 4 Recently, France, Germany, Italy and ‘Doing less more efficiently’. The Reformed Spain as well as the Benelux and the Political Party has affiliations with both Visegrad states have, to a varying extent, scenario 2 ‘Nothing but the single market’ and made statements in favour of the idea of a scenario 3 ‘Those who want more do more’. multi-speed European Union. Various Dutch political parties have, as already partially 3. An EU focusing on ‘main tasks’ indicated above with reference to Juncker’s (6 parties: PvdA, CDA, VVD, third scenario ‘Those who want more do PvdD, DENK, 50PLUS) more’, given support to a multi-speed Mainstream political parties such as Europe and differentiated integration. the Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid), Christian Democrats (CDA) and the centre The Dutch Christian Democrats express right liberals (VVD) still support the EU but in general terms that more intensive EU express that it should focus on certain so cooperation should be sought in core called ‘main tasks’. The Party for the Animals groups. D66 says that, if necessary, a core (ecological interest party) does not want group of countries should intensify their to transfer new competences to the EU. cooperation in order to demonstrate what The new political parties DENK (left wing is possible in areas like migration, security, immigrant party) and 50PLUS (an interests energy, climate and digital economy. party for the elderly) are ambiguous about The Reformed Political Party states that the EU but share the opinion of an EU of basic agreement about the internal market ‘main tasks’. is needed by all member states, but in other policy areas flexibility in scope and width The Labour Party has links with Juncker’s is desired. scenario 1 ‘Carrying on’ (e.g. implying a strengthening of the internal market, migration The VVD stipulates it is in favour of a Europe and border policies). CDA and VVD have links of multiple speeds and goals. The party also with scenario 1 ‘Carrying on’ and scenario 3 says that weak Euro members refusing to ‘Those who want more do more’. The Party for reform should leave the Eurozone. 50PLUS the Animals, DENK and 50PLUS more or less states it wants a strong and stable euro, fall under both scenario 1 ‘Carrying on’ and if need be with less euro members. The scenario 4 ‘Doing less more efficiently’. Other Christian Union demands exit-criteria and policy area choices are more likely than in the scenarios for the Euro, Schengen and other described scenarios however. The notion of major fields of European integration. The an European Defence Union under Juncker’s party wants Greece to leave the Eurozone fourth scenario would certainly be off-target. with partial debt relief. The party ‘For the Netherlands’ aspires to form a Northern 4. Further European integration European Alliance with a northern Euro. (2 parties: GroenLinks, D66) The Party for the Animals wants EU Two parties are explicitly in favour of further scenarios for parallel currencies in order European integration. The Dutch Green Left to make a return to national currencies or (GroenLinks) desires a stronger European a split between a northern and southern Parliament. D66, a centrist liberal party, Euro possible. aspires in the long run a federal Europe.

2 About the Clingendael Institute

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About the author

Michiel Luining is Research Assistant at the Europe cluster of Clingendael Institute. His research is particularly focused on the rule of law.