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Plugged In: the End of the Oil Age” Focuses on 0 Crude Oil

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Plugged In: the End of the Oil Age” Focuses on 0 Crude Oil PLUGGED IN THE END OF THE OIL AGE Summary Report March 2008 THE END OF THE OIL AGE 1 TRANSPORT IS 95% DEPENDENT Security comes through diversification ON OIL Energy security frequently dominates the political debate, particularly “[A]n attempt by any among the most powerful and fast developing economies in the world. outside force to gain Throughout the 20th Century, and in the early years of this millennium, A century of economic and social development has been made control of the Persian access to crude oil has provided the backdrop for many of the world’s possible by a transport sector – enabling the movement of goods, Gulf region will be titanic military struggles. services and people – which is ninety-five percent dependent on liquid regarded as an assault hydrocarbon fuels derived from crude oil. No other sector is so utterly on the vital interests One of the keys to security of supply comes through diversification reliant on a single source of primary energy. of the United States of of supply. However, remaining oil reserves are concentrating in relatively America, and such an few countries, and this erects a significant barrier to diversification. More The circumstances in which than three-quarters of all remaining reserves are located in the eleven GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY MIX (2004): assault will be repelled OPEC member states. With the exception of Russia, all the major oil TRANSPORT VERSUS HEAT AND POWER this transport sector evolved by any means necessary, have changed beyond recogni- including military force.” consumers – US, EU, China, Japan, and India – are significant net im- Crude Oil tion. While one hundred years US President Jimmy porters today. This geological fact of life makes crude oil a potent source Coal ago crude oil was abundant, Carter, 1980 State of the of political and military conflict. Natural Gas Crude Oil cheap, and most areas of soci- Union Address. Biomass International Oil Companies (IOCs) face similar pressures. Six of the Biofuels ety were unaware of the nega- Nuclear ten most powerful corporations in the world – as measured by revenues Other tive consequences of its use, Hydro – operate in the oil sector. But since financial markets value oil com- POWER GENERATION Other today anthropogenic climate AND HEAT PLANTS panies by their ability to replace reserves – which they can no longer renewables change, deteriorating urban air 4,133 Mtoe access freely – the concentration of reserves in the hands of the few, TRANSPORT quality, destruction of essential 1,969 Mtoe coupled with a recent spate of resource nationalism, represents a direct ecosystems, and escalating threat to their ongoing prosperity. Data source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 political squabbles over dimin- ishing and increasingly expen- Together with the major world economies of today and tomorrow, IOCs Comparison of the global primary energy demand mixes of the tranport sector and heat and power plants, highlighting the unique fuel specificity of transport. This oil dependency is highly problematic as sive crude oil resources are the find themselves collectively facing a liquid fuels crisis. This crisis is reflected it represents an enormous barrier to achieving energy security through diversification. backdrop to the global energy in the high price of crude oil – reaching a record US$ 100/bbl in 2007 system. – as diminishing conventional supplies and infrastructural bottlenecks are unable to satisfy rising demand for Today, around half of every barrel of crude oil is converted into transportation services. In response, transportation fuels, and the share continues to grow. The automo- CRUDE OIL GEOGRAPHY IN 2006: RESERVES VS CONSUMPTION governments and IOCs are forced tive sector accounts for roughly three-quarters of the total transport to develop substitutes for crude oil, sector demand for primary energy, with the remainder shared equally “[S]ince the marriage 80 Proved Reserves which belong to a family loosely re- of fossil fuels and the between aviation and shipping. It is no exaggeration to say that the oil 70 Consumption ferred to as ‘alternative fuels’. internal combustion and transport sectors are inextricably linked. 60 50 engine some hundred But many of the oil substitutes If we are to stand any chance of reversing the negative trends, this 40 which are currently being pursued years ago, the fortunes link must end by transitioning to a transport paradigm which is both 30 % of World Total % of World 20 have environmental impacts sig- of our industries have highly efficient and compatible with a sustainable renewable energy been tied together.” 10 nificantly worse than conventional future. WWF’s book “Plugged In: The End of the Oil Age” focuses on 0 crude oil. Their development is Rob Routs, Royal solutions to break this link. OPEC FSU North China EU-25 India Japan Dutch Shell, speech America driven by the unchallenged domi- Data source: BP Statistical Review 2007 delivered at “Fuelling nance of the internal combustion the Automotive Future”, The geographical distribution of conventional crude oil resources bears no relationship to the areas engine (ICE) in automotive trans- of high consumption. Remaining proved reserves are gradually concentrating in relatively few Amsterdam, 28/05/06. countries: OPEC member states and the nations which comprise the former Soviet Union (FSU). port. This is the root cause of the problem that we must tackle. 2 THE END OF THE OIL AGE 3 THE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPERATIVE Gas-to-liquids technology delivers fuels which are clean burning, in terms of air pollutants like sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter. But the energy-intensity of the process repre- Climate change is one of the biggest challenges facing the world sents an unjustifiable waste. GTL fuels are no better than conventional today. In 2005, the average global temperature was 0.74 degrees Cel- petroleum on a life-cycle basis. Natural gas is also likely to show Excessive sius (°C) higher than a century earlier. Scientists attribute the planet’s supply constraints similar to oil. Challenged to decarbonise our energy concentrations of increasing temperature to excessive concentrations of greenhouse system, natural gas must be deployed in heat and power generation, greenhouse gases gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, which are largely caused by the glo- displacing dirty coal and thereby realising its greatest carbon abate- (GHGs) in the bal economy’s dependence on fossil fuels. It is increasingly accepted ment potential. atmosphere are largely The life-cycle CO that the average increase in global surface temperatures must stay be- 2 caused by impact of CTL fuels Coal-to-liquids programmes are strong indicators of a ‘state of low 2°C compared with the pre-industrial era. This threshold has been the global economy’s is at least twice emergency’. CTL has only prospered in two notable episodes during chosen because of the extreme risks to human populations posed by dependence on that of conventional the 20th Century: Nazi Germany and Apartheid South Africa. Nations an increase beyond 2°C, in particular the combined threats of disease, fossil fuels. petroleum. with limited access to crude oil and large domestic coal reserves may coastal flooding, and food and water shortages. see CTL as a way to reduce expensive oil imports. However, the life- In order to avert the worst impacts of climate change, the global cycle CO2 impact of CTL fuels is at least twice that of conventional pe- economy must as soon as possible reduce emissions of carbon diox- troleum. In addition, the process is incredibly water-intensive. China, ide (CO2 ), the main greenhouse gas, and move towards sustainability. the US, India, Australia and South Africa are all currently pursuing CTL Within the power sector – the number one source of CO2 emissions programmes. today – a broad range of sustainable options exist, many of which are becoming increasingly competitive as climate change policies penalise emissions. Meanwhile, the transport sector – currently responsible for TIME FOR CHANGE one-quarter of energy-related GHG emissions worldwide – looks set to The only sustainable increase its carbon intensity as unconventional oils are exploited to sat- approach to the crisis The only sustainable approach to the crisis is to tackle its root isfy the steadily growing demand for liquid hydrocarbon fuels. is to tackle its root cause: the prevalence cause: the prevalence of the internal combustion engine coupled to of the internal a mechanical drivetrain, an outdated combination which is inherently The environmental impacts of unconventional oils combustion engine. inefficient in converting stored chemical energy into kilometres. are extreme Unnecessary journeys can be eliminated through smarter urban Oil sands, coal-to-liquids (CTL), and gas-to-liquids (GTL) technolo- planning, encouraging behavioural change, and switching from private Greenhouse gas gies are touted by IOCs as the answer to the liquid fuels crisis. Such to public transport modes. Doubling the effective fuel economy of a emissions from oil technologies allow development of liquid hydrocarbon fuels from oil private car is as easy as carrying a passenger. Vehicle downsizing, sands processing sands, coal and natural gas respectively. Their greatest strength is lightweighting, aerodynamic improvements, efficient auxiliary compo- are up to three compatibility with existing infrastructure and engine systems – but this nents, lower maximum speed limits, reducing the rolling resistance of times higher than is also their fundamental limitation, as they sustain our dependency on tyres and simple hybridising are worthwhile in that all will increase the from conventional liquid hydrocarbon fuels and internal combustion engines. efficiency of the automotive fleet. Yet none of these measures will do petroleum production. anything to reduce the transport sector’s dependency on liquid hydro- All of the major oil companies are converging on the oil sands of carbon fuels. Alberta, seen as a new ‘gold rush’ because Canada offers such a stable investment climate.
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