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The Evaluation of the Impact of Introducing Energy Tax to Reduce The evaluation of the impact of introducing energy tax to reduce CO2 emissions in Taiwan Chih-Chun Liu Senior Assistant Research Fellow Taiwan Research Institute Abstract In order to deal with global warming, the Kyoto Protocol has aligned numerous countries to commit a significant reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2012. In response to the Kyoto Protocol, the government of Taiwan decided to levy an energy tax on various energy products as the future policy direction. However, imposing energy tax will not only reduce CO2 emissions but also affect economy of Taiwan. Therefore, the main purpose of this research project is to evaluate the effectiveness and impact of imposing energy tax on energy products, such as energy price, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), GDP deflator and the CO2 emissions. The objectives of this research project are: (1) To estimate the reduction of CO2 emissions as a whole in Taiwan by imposing an energy tax; (2) To examine the potential impact of an energy tax on the Taiwanese economy, such as energy price, GDP deflator and GDP; (3) Recommend an effective tax rate of energy tax. In order to address the above research objectives, the polynomial linear regression model are employed in this research, and the evaluations of three proposed energy tax ordinance (draft) are made: (1) The price elasticity of coal and oil consumption is -0.179 and –0.247 respectively. (2) Coal price will increase by 20% to 60%, oil price will increase by 24.17% to 77.54%, natural gas price will increase by 5.37% to 50.65% and electricity price will increase by 9.99% to 38.88%; (3) The GDP deflator will increase by 1.785% to 5.822%, and GDP will drop by 0.787% to 2.576%; (4) Coal demand reduces by 3.99% to 12.08% and oil reduces by 6.44% to 20.69%, and the total reduction of CO2 emissions will be 6.00% to 19.14%. According to the above evaluation, imposing energy tax will cause significant impact on the economy of Taiwan, and the current proposed energy tax might not be effective, because it could not achieve the target reduction in CO2, made in the national energy conference. In addition, it is also difficult to recommend a specific rate of energy tax, which will effectively reduce CO2 emission and has less economical impacts. However, the following recommendations are made to improve the weakness in the current proposed energy tax ordinance (draft): (1) Energy tax should be imposed on the proportions of carbon, which emit CO2 into the atmosphere, rather than input factors; (2) The full transition of energy tax from producers to customers should be change to partial transition to provide more incentives to producers to enhance energy conservation and reduce CO2 emissions; and (3) Tax revenues should be appropriately used to reduce tax distortion of income tax and energy tax itself, to provide financial incentives to the industries, to subside the development of renewable technologies. Introduction With the development of human histories, especially after the industrial revolution, the average temperature of the surface of the earth has shown a dramatic increase and the speed of this trend is expected to accelerate (IPCC, 2007). This phenomenon is called global warming, one of the most controversial, contemporary environmental issues. It is noted that greenhouse gases (GHG) may cause an irreversible environmental calamity. According to Richard T. Wright (2005), the greenhouse effect is caused by greenhouse gases in particular carbon dioxide (CO2). The greenhouse gases absorb the radiation from the sun and cover the surface of the Earth like a blanket to keep the Earth warm. However, if the concentration of the greenhouse gases keeps increasing, the temperature of the Earth‟s surface will increase gradually as well. Therefore, the climate of the Earth will experience unpredictable changes, such as extreme weather events, and the environment may suffer irreversible damages, such as sea level rise and the destruction of marine ecosystem (IPCC, 2007). Nowadays, the greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere by the combustion of fossil fuel and the other human activities has increased significantly. According to International Energy Annual (EIA, 2007), the annual emissions of CO2 have increased 31.8% in 15 years (from 21,395 million tonCO2 in 1990 to 28,193 million tonCO2 in 2005). Hence, it does attract the attentions from the scientific, environmental and political communities. In order to alleviate the impact of global warming on the environment, a significant reduction of GHG emissions is urgently needed. It depends on a successful “social institutional arrangement”, both formal and informal (O'Riordan, J. and Jordon, A., 1996, P.65-P.66). Hence, enormous effort and work in coordination, such as United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), have been put to find the possible consequence and solution of global warming. In 1997, an international treaty, the Kyoto Protocol, aligned 178 countries to reduce GHG emission, and then the Kyoto Protocol entered into force in 2005 when 166 countries ratified which account for more than at least 55% of the total CO2 emissions for 1990 of the Parties included in Annex I1. According to Article 3 of the Kyoto Protocol (1998), the signatories, mostly developed countries, are required to reduce their GHG emission, including Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous oxide (N2O), Hydro-fluorocarbons (HFCs), Perfluorocarbons (PFCs), Sulphur-hexafluoride (SF6), at least average 5% below the baseline of 1990 level during 2008 and 2012 (See Table 1). Table 1. The Reduction Target in Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol Country Target EU-15, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Liechtenstein, -8% Lithuania, Monaco, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland US (non-ratification) -7% Canada, Hungary, Japan, Poland -6% Croatia (non-ratification) -5% New Zealand, Russian Federation, Ukraine 0 Norway +1% Australia (non-ratification) +8% Iceland +10% Source: UNFCCC, 1998, Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 1According to the Article 25 of the Kyoto Protocol (1998), “this Protocol shall enter into force on the ninetieth day after the date on which not less than 55 Parties to the Convention, incorporating Parties included in Annex I which accounted in total for at least 55 per cent of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 of the Parties included in Annex I, have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession. According to the website of UNFCCC (the Status of Ratification, 2007), as of 23 October 2007, 175 countries and 1 regional economic integration organization (the EEC) have deposited instruments of ratification, accession, approval or acceptance. The total percentage of Annex I Parties emissions is 61.6%. However, it is also criticized that there is not mandatory target for developing countries, which could be main contributors for the recent increase in greenhouse gases. For example, according to International Energy Annual (EIA, 2007), the CO2 emission of China has increased from 2,241 millions tonCO2 (10.5% of global CO2 2 emission) in 1990 to 5,323 million tonCO2 (18.9% of global CO2 emissions) in 2005 and becomes the second largest CO2 emitter around the world. Thus, the reduction of emissions by developed countries may be hard to cover the growth of CO2 emissions of developing countries. In addition, as Taiwan has been struggling in its difficult international political position against China, it is also exclusive of the parties of the Kyoto Protocol. However, Taiwan ranks No. 22 of total CO2 emissions in 214 countries globally in 2005 and emits 284.4 millions ton CO2 per year (EIA, 2005). In response to the Kyoto Protocol, the government of Taiwan hosted its first nationwide Energy Conference in 1998. According to Energy White Paper (Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs, 2005), two important recommendations emerged at this conference: (1) the targeted reduction in CO2 should be 24 to 48 percent lower than BAU (business as usual) projection by 2020; (2) the energy efficiency should increase 1.2% per year by 2020. After the Kyoto Protocol had come into effect, the government of Taiwan convened its second nationwide Energy Conference in June 2005. The meeting concluded that energy sectors should reach the long-term CO2 reduction target through the promotion of renewable energy, increasing use of natural gas and rationalization of the electricity price. It also set a limit of 361 million tonnes of CO2 emissions in 2025. Because the energy prices in Taiwan remain relatively lower than most of countries around the world, the incentive for energy conservation is not enough3. Thus, the outcome of reducing CO2 is unsatisfactory. According to International Energy 2 China is predicted to be the largest CO2 emitter soon. According to EIA, the annual growth rate of CO2 emission of China is 9.2%, as the United States, the largest CO2 emitter, is only 1.3%. 3 According to Liang (2005), Taiwan is one of the countries having the lowest price in gasoline, diesel and electricity, and the energy efficiency decreased since 1999. Annual (EIA, 2005), the total CO2 emission of Taiwan had increased from 195.88 millions tonCO2 in 1996 to 284.40 million ton CO2 in 2005. According to International Energy Annual (EIA, 2005), compared with the th developed countries, the CO2 emission per capita of Taiwan (12.53 tonCO2) is 24 worst around the world in 2005, as most of European countries have better performance, such as Germany (10.24 tonCO2) and UK (9.55 tonCO2). In the meantime, China is 4.07 tonCO2 and India is only 1.07 tonCO2. Therefore, in July 2006, at the conference of Economic and Sustainable Development of Taiwan, the consensus of “imposing energy tax" was made as the Taiwanese government‟s future policy direction (Council for Economic Planning and Development, Executive Yuan, 2006).
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