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The Economic Future of Taiwan: a View from Outside Lawrence J The Economic Future of Taiwan: A View from Outside Lawrence J. Lau, Ph. D., D. Soc. Sc. (hon.) Kwoh-Ting Li Professor of Economic Development Department of Economics Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305-6072, U.S.A. January 2001 Phone: 1-650-723-3708; Fax: 1-650-723-7145 Email: [email protected]; Website: http://www.stanford.edu/~ljlau Preview u The Economy of Taiwan Today u The Sources of Economic Growth u The Role of Economic Policies u The Transition from Tangible to Intangible Capital-Based Growth u New Global and Local Trends u Paradigms for the Future u Implications for Public Policies Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 2 The Economy of Taiwan Today (1) u East Asia is the fastest-growing region in the world over the past two decades, the East Asian currency crisis of 1997-1998 notwithstanding u Taiwan is one of the first “Newly Industrialized Economies” (NIEs) in East Asia u Over the last half century, real GNP and real GNP per capita have grown at 8.4% and 6.2% respectively u Taiwan began its industrialization drive after Hong Kong and before South Korea u Taiwan has done exceptionally well despite relatively unfavorable resource endowment and population density. u Taiwan survived the East Asian currency crisis relatively unscathed u How has it been able to achieve this economic performance? Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 3 The Economy of Taiwan Today (2) 1951 1999 US$ (1999 prices) Real GDP 6 bill. 290 bill. Real GDP per capita 725 12,750 Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 4 The Economy of Taiwan Today (3) U.S. Taiwan US$ (current prices) 1999 GDP 9.248 trill. 0.290 trill. 1999 GDP per capita 33,857 12,750 Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 5 The Goal of Economic Development u To achieve the highest rate of growth of real output (GNP) per capita, subject to the following considerations: u Non-pecuniary benefits--e.g., the effects on life expectancy, health, literacy and other non-monetary indicators of welfare u Non-pecuniary costs--e.g., degradation of the environment, pollution u Depletion of natural resources u An equitable distribution of income Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 6 Taiwan’s Economic History Real GNP per Capita NT$ GNP Per Capita of Taiwan 1,000,000 GNP PER CAPITA in 1996 prices 100,000 10,000 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 Year Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 7 Year Real GNP and Real GNP Per Capita -on -Year Quarterly Rates of Growth of 20 Rates of Growth of Real GNP and Real GNP Per Capita (percent per annum) 15 10 Percent per annum5 0 1962-Q1 1963-Q2 -5 1964-Q3 1965-Q4 -10 1967-Q1 1968-Q2 1969-Q3 1970-Q4 1972-Q1 1973-Q2 1974-Q3 1975-Q4 1977-Q1 1978-Q2 Rate of Growth of Real GNP 1979-Q3 Rate of Growth of Real GNP per capita 1980-Q4 1982-Q1 1983-Q2 Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 1984-Q3 1985-Q4 Quarter 1987-Q1 1988-Q2 1989-Q3 1990-Q4 1992-Q1 1993-Q2 1994-Q3 1995-Q4 1997-Q1 1998-Q2 1999-Q3 8 Year Quarterly Rates of Growth of Real GNP -on -Year 20 15 Year-on-Year Quarterly Rates of Growth of Real GNP 10 Percent per annum 5 0 1962-Q1 1963-Q2 -5 1964-Q3 1965-Q4 1967-Q1 1968-Q2 1969-Q3 1970-Q4 1972-Q1 1973-Q2 1974-Q3 1975-Q4 1977-Q1 1978-Q2 1979-Q3 Q1 Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University1980-Q4 1982-Q1 Q3 Q2 1983-Q2 Q4 Quarter 1984-Q3 1985-Q4 1987-Q1 1988-Q2 1989-Q3 1990-Q4 1992-Q1 1993-Q2 1994-Q3 1995-Q4 1997-Q1 1998-Q2 1999-Q3 9 Unemployment Rate % Monthly Unemployment Rate 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 Month 0 197801 197910 198107 198304 198501 198610 198807 199004 199201 199310 199507 199704 199901 200010 Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 10 The Rate of Inflation Annual Rate of Inflation (Implicit GDP Deflator) % 35.00 30.00 GDP Deflator 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 Year 0.00 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 -5.00 Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 11 The Stylized Facts u The rate of growth of real GNP per capita has declined u The rate of growth of population has declined significantly u The rate of unemployment has risen in recent years u The rate of inflation has remained low Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 12 Rates of Growth of Inputs & Outputs of the East Asian Developing & the G-7 Countries Table 3.1: Average Annual Rates of Growth of Real GDP, Capital, Labor and Human Capital (percent) (Extended sample period) Average Capital Utilized Labor Human Human Country Period GDP Stock Capital Employment Hours Capital Capital Hong Kong 66-95 7.4 8.8 8.6 2.6 2.4 4.8 2.1 S. Korea 60-95 8.5 12.3 12.3 3.1 3.3 6.2 4.0 Singapore 64-95 8.8 10.3 10.3 4.3 4.7 5.9 3.5 Taiwan 53-95 8.4 11.8 11.8 2.7 2.3 5.3 2.8 Indonesia 70-94 6.7 8.9 9.8 3.1 3.1 9.6 7.7 Malaysia 70-95 7.3 11.8 11.8 3.7 3.7 7.7 4.9 Philippines 66-95 4.0 5.8 5.9 3.2 3.2 10.8 8.5 Thailand 66-94 7.6 9.1 9.4 2.8 2.8 8.5 5.8 China 65-95 8.4 10.3 10.3 3.0 3.0 5.9 3.3 Japan 57-94 5.9 8.1 8.0 1.1 0.6 2.1 0.9 Canada 57-94 3.8 4.8 4.7 2.3 1.9 3.0 1.1 France 57-94 3.3 3.9 3.9 0.4 -0.2 2.0 1.1 W. Germany 57-94 3.2 3.3 3.1 0.1 -0.3 1.5 1.0 Italy 59-94 3.5 5.2 5.3 0.0 -0.3 1.8 1.3 UK 57-94 2.4 3.9 3.8 0.2 -0.1 1.2 0.8 US 49-94 3.1 3.0 3.3 1.7 1.3 2.1 0.8 Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 13 Real Output per Labor Hour 20 15 China Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Thailand 10 Non-Asian G5 Real Output per Labor Hour (1980 US$) 1980 US$ per Labor Hour Hong Kong S. Korea Philippines 5 Taiwan Japan 0 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 14 Accounting for Economic Growth u Decomposing the growth of output by its proximate sources: u How much of the growth of output can be attributed to the growth of measured inputs, tangible capital and labor? and u How much of the growth of output can be attributed to technical progress (aka growth in total factor productivity), i.e. improvements in productive efficiency over time? u TECHNICAL PROGRESS (GROWTH IN TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY) = GROWTH IN OUTPUT HOLDING ALL MEASURED INPUTS CONSTANT Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 15 Accounting for Economic Growth u S. Kuznets (1966) observed that "the direct contribution of man- hours and capital accumulation would hardly account for more than a tenth of the rate of growth in per capita product--and probably less." (p. 81) u M. Abramovitz (1956) and R. Solow (1957) similarly found that the growth of output cannot be adequately explained by the growth of inputs u Denison (1962), under the assumption that the degree of returns to scale is 1.1, found less technical progress u Griliches and Jorgenson (1966), Jorgenson, Gollop and Fraumeni (1987) and Jorgenson and his associates found even less technical progress by adjusting capital and labor inputs for quality improvements Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 16 Accounting for Economic Growth u Boskin and Lau (1990), using labor-hours and constant-dollar capital stocks, found that technical progress has been the most important source of growth for the developed countries in the postwar period Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 17 The Concept of a Production Function u Definition: u A production function is a rule which gives the quantity of output, Y , for a given quantity of input, X , denoted: Y = F( X) Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 18 The Economist’s Concept of Technical Progress u A production function may change over time. Thus: u Y = F( X, t ) u Definition: u There is technical progress between period 0 and period 1 if given the same quantity of input, X0 , the quantity of output in period 1, Y1 , is greater than the quantity of output in period 0, Y0 , i.e., F ( X ,1) ³ F ( X ,0) 0 0 u TECHNICAL PROGRESS = THE GROWTH OF OUTPUT HOLDING MEASURED INPUTS CONSTANT Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 19 Technical Progress: The Single-Output, Single-Input Case period 1 F(X,1) Y1 t u p t Y period 0 F(X,0) u O Y0 0 X 0 X 1 X Input Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 20 Decomposition of the Growth of Output u If the production function is known, the growth of output can be decomposed into: u (1) The growth of output due to the growth of measured inputs (movement along a production function) and u (2) Technical progress (shift in the production function) u The growth of output due to the growth of inputs can be further decomposed into the growth of output due to tangible capital, labor (and any other measured inputs) Lawrence J.
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