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Documentary Data Provide Evidence of Stockholm Average Winter to Spring Temperatures in the Eighteenth and Nineteenth Centuries L

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Documentary Data Provide Evidence of Stockholm Average Winter to Spring Temperatures in the Eighteenth and Nineteenth Centuries L The Holocene 18,2 (2008) pp. 333–343 Documentary data provide evidence of Stockholm average winter to spring temperatures in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries L. Leijonhufvud,1* R. Wilson2 and A. Moberg3 ( 1Department of Economic History, Stockholm University, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden; 2School of Geography & Geosciences, University of St Andrews, St Andrews KY16 9AL, UK; 3Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden) Received 10 April 2007; revised manuscript accepted 19 October 2007 Abstract: Swedish archives provide several types of documentary sources relating to port activities in Stockholm for the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. These documentary sources reflect sea ice conditions in the harbour inlet and correlate well with late-winter to early-spring temperatures. Instrumental measurements of temperature in Stockholm began in 1756, which allow for careful empirical assessment of the proxies from that date. After combining proxy series from several sources to derive a mean time series, calibration and ver- ification trials are made and a preliminary January–April temperature reconstruction is developed from 1692 to 1892. This series, which explains 67% of the temperature variance, is further verified against independent tem- perature data from Uppsala, which go back to 1722. This additional verification of the reconstruction also assesses the quality of the early instrumental data from Uppsala, which has potential homogeneity problems before 1739 as a result of the thermometer being located indoors. Our analysis suggests that before this date, the instrumental data may be ‘too warm’ and need correction. Together, the documentary and instrumental data identify the post-1990 period as the warmest in three centuries. Continuing assessment of the historical archives should result in some of the documentary records being extended back into the early sixteenth century, allow- ing the future development of a southern Swedish winter temperature reconstruction for the last ~500 years. Key words: Winter temperatures, climate reconstruction, documentary sources, dendroclimatological methods, Sweden. Introduction reconstructions of past precipitation and temperature changes as well as providing invaluable information on extreme events such as storms, floods and other natural disasters (Brazdil et al., 2005). As After adjusting the time-series we are happy to say that the resid- tree-ring data normally provide proxy information for the summer uals are perfectly normal, thank you very much. (Paraphrasing (ie, growth) season, documentary sources are also invaluable as they Harry Potter). can provide past climatic information for other seasons (ie, winter). In this paper, we explore the potential of documentary historical Prior to the establishment of the first regular meteorological observa- sources, related to harbour activity around the city of Stockholm, as tions in Uppsala (1722), Lund (1740) and Stockholm (1756) (Moberg, proxies of past winter temperatures. A similar approach has been 1998), information on past climate in southern Sweden (Figure 1) must described by Tarand and Nordli (2001) who used port journals, cus- be drawn from either non-instrumental man-made sources (eg, scien- tom books, town council minutes and similar historical documents as tific writings, narratives, administrative records, descriptions of warm sources of evidence for ice break-up dates in the port of Tallinn, and cold spells and freezing of water bodies – see Pfister et al., 1999) Estonia (Figure 1). They argued that ice break-up dates was a good or from proxy evidence obtained from natural archives (eg, tree-rings). proxy for winter temperatures and developed a December–February Historical documentary sources are particularly valuable as they may temperature reconstruction back to 1500. In this study we hypothesize allow the development of high-resolution (monthly to annual) that it might be more correct to interpret man-made documentary sources as reflections of human behaviour, which are in turn suscep- *Author for correspondence (e-mail: [email protected]) tible to specific climatic phenomena, rather than to view such sources © 2008 SAGE Publications Downloaded from http://hol.sagepub.com at Stockholms Universitet on February 25, 2008 10.1177/0959683607086770 © 2008 SAGE Publications. All rights reserved. Not for commercial use or unauthorized distribution. 334 The Holocene 18,2 (2008) Figure 1 Location map as direct proxies of temperature and precipitation. For example, Administrative proceedings were generally carried out more or port-journals may be used to assess the beginning of the sailing less immediately before the time of the actual journey. Some, such season, which ultimately cannot start until the inlet to the harbour as the payment for imported goods were generally made very is ice-free. However, ice-free water is a necessary, but not the close to arrival, since the merchants were not allowed to unload only, condition for sailing. In reality therefore, man-made sources their ships until their accounts had been settled (Smith, 1950). probably reflect human expectations of weather rather than the cli- Others, such as the sea passports, could be organized well in matic conditions themselves. advance of a planned journey. Once the documentary-based data had been obtained, the sail- ing dates were transformed to the number of days after 1 January, Swedish data sources for adjusting for differences between the Julian and the Gregorian cal- harbour activity endar. (See Haldorsson (1996) for further explanations on the Gregorian calendar reform in Sweden.) In a few select cases, some Table 1 lists the available historical sources for the eighteenth and problems were noted on the decision whether a particular date nineteenth centuries that may be regarded as reflecting the begin- should represent the end of the autumn sailing season, or if it ning and end of the sailing season, and might therefore be used as should be interpreted as marking the start of the spring sailing sea- proxies for temperature. Of these sources, only the ‘ice break-up’ son. Usually, there is a gap in the accounts of at least 2 months, (Hildebrandsson, 1915) and official statistics (Berättelse angående eg, the ‘last ship’ arrived in late January and the ‘first ship’ arrived Stockholms kommunalförvaltning År 1894, 1896) have previously in late March. The ship arriving before the gap has been regarded been published. The remaining data are only available as hand- as the last ship of the previous season, even though it has been written archival material. Shipping generated several kinds of recorded for the same year as the ship we have regarded as the port activities with subsequent administration. All the sources (see ‘first ship’ of the season. However, when there has only been, for Table 1) below refer to different administrative procedures of the example, one month between the ‘last’ and ‘first’ ship, it is very central and/or local governments with connections to shipping. difficult to assess which ship was the last of sailing season and These administrative activities were carried out on a daily basis which was the first. These problems are generally connected with for the entire sailing season and detailed notes were made through- very mild winters; probably with open water all year round. We out this period. At the end of the year a chronological summary are well aware that this causes certain arbitrariness in the data set, was made in a ledger (cf. Odén, 1960). Many of these ledgers are which may influence the empirical relationship with temperature. preserved and are easy to work with since they are chronologically ordered. Historians have utilized these books for decades to try to Ship records estimate trade volumes and assess issues related to smuggling and Ship records were drawn up in the city’s Chamber of Commerce exemptions from taxes – and other dues and fees. The latter prob- and could be arranged well in advance of the planned travel. They lem does not concern this study, since privileged people were still were made for the control of people and to prevent criminals from recorded in the ledgers, though not with the value of their leaving the country. The dated protocols are standardized and imported or exported goods, but only when they arrived or specify which people would go on a particular journey. The pro- departed. Smuggling is also likely not a problem since it is easier tocol would later be shown to the harbour-master. A copy was to avoid the attendance of the authorities in a crowd, rather than made and saved in the archives of the Chamber of Commerce and arriving as the first ship of the season. these copies were, at the end of the year, hardbound. Downloaded from http://hol.sagepub.com at Stockholms Universitet on February 25, 2008 © 2008 SAGE Publications. All rights reserved. Not for commercial use or unauthorized distribution. L. Leijonhufvud et al.: Stockholm’s climate in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries 335 Table 1 Proxy data from different kinds of administrative records for the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries used in the reconstruction Archive/source Variable label Brief description Reflecting Period of coverage SSA, Hak, Ship records spring Registers of sailors leaving Stockholm in the spring Opening of sailing season 1692–1841 Sjöfolkskontrollen, Skeppsprotokoll & Ship records autumn Registers of sailors leaving Stockholm in the autumn
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