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Russia's Limit of Advance: Scenarios C O R P O R A T I O N BEN CONNABLE, ABBY DOLL, ALYSSA DEMUS, DARA MASSICOT, CLINT REACH, ANTHONY ATLER, WILLIAM MACKENZIE, MATTHEW POVLOCK, LAUREN SKRABALA Russia’s Limit of Advance Scenarios For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2563z1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0244-8 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2020 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report documents the scenarios developed to support the research and analysis presented in the RAND report Russia’s Limit of Advance: Analysis of Russian Ground Force Deployment Capabilities and Limitations, available online at www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2563. The two reports were produced as part of the project Defeating Russian Deployed Joint Forces, sponsored by the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-3/5/7, U.S. Army. The purpose of the project was to assess challenges that deployed Russian forces pose to U.S. Army forces; identify opportunities to defeat Russian deployed forces in a range of environments and at various levels of conflict; identify limitations to Russia’s ground force deployment capabilities, including logistics, lines of communication, deployed force protection, air defense, system ranges, com- mand and control, and joint integration; and recommend ways for the U.S. Army and the joint force to defeat Russia’s deployed forces in multiple prospective combat scenarios. This research was conducted within the RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) sponsored by the United States Army. RAND operates under a “Federal-Wide Assurance” (FWA00003425) and complies with the Code of Federal Regulations for the Protection of Human Subjects Under United States Law (45 CFR 46), also known as “the Common Rule,” as well as with the implementation guidance set forth in U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Instruction 3216.02. As applicable, this com- pliance includes reviews and approvals by RAND’s Institutional Review Board (the Human Subjects Protection Committee) and by the U.S. Army. The views of sources utilized in this study are solely their own and do not represent the official policy or position of DoD or the U.S. government. iii Contents Preface ........................................................................................................... iii Figures and Table ..............................................................................................vii Summary ........................................................................................................ ix Acknowledgments ............................................................................................. xi Abbreviations ..................................................................................................xiii CHAPTER ONE Kazakhstan Scenario ........................................................................................... 1 Key Points from the Kazakhstan Scenario .................................................................... 6 CHAPTER TWO Tajikistan Scenario ............................................................................................. 7 Key Points from the Tajikistan Scenario .....................................................................12 CHAPTER THREE Serbia Scenario .................................................................................................13 Key Points from the Serbia Scenario ..........................................................................18 CHAPTER FOUR Syria Scenario ..................................................................................................19 Key Points from the Syria Scenario .......................................................................... 24 CHAPTER FIVE Venezuela Scenario ............................................................................................25 Key Points from the Venezuela Scenario .................................................................... 30 CHAPTER SIX Ukraine “+1” Scenario ........................................................................................31 Key Points from the Ukraine Scenario ...................................................................... 36 Bibliography ....................................................................................................37 v Figures and Table Figures 1.1. Kazakhstan Scenario Deployment Range ....................................................... 1 1.2. Russian Forces in the Kazakhstan Scenario ..................................................... 2 1.3. Kazakhstan Scenario Movement Plan............................................................ 3 1.4. Kazakhstan Scenario Initial Deployment Wave Assumptions ................................ 4 1.5. Kazakhstan Scenario Second Deployment Wave Assumptions ............................... 5 1.6. Kazakhstan Scenario Ground Movement Assumptions ....................................... 6 2.1. Tajikistan Scenario Deployment Range .......................................................... 7 2.2. Russian Forces in the Tajikistan Scenario ....................................................... 8 2.3. Tajikistan Scenario Movement Plan .............................................................. 9 2.4. Tajikistan Scenario Airlift Assumptions ........................................................10 2.5. Tajikistan Scenario Rail Assumptions ...........................................................11 2.6. Tajikistan Scenario Movements to Tactical Assembly Areas .................................12 3.1. Serbia Scenario Deployment Range .............................................................13 3.2. Russian Forces in the Serbia Scenario ...........................................................14 3.3. Serbia Scenario Movement Plan .................................................................15 3.4. Serbia Scenario Airlift Assumptions .............................................................16 3.5. Serbia Scenario Sealift Assumptions .............................................................17 3.6. Serbia Scenario Ground Movement Assumptions .............................................18 4.1. Syria Scenario Deployment Range...............................................................19 4.2. Russian Forces in the Syria Scenario ........................................................... 20 4.3. Syria Scenario Movement Plan ...................................................................21 4.4. Syria Scenario Airlift Assumptions ............................................................. 22 4.5. Syria Scenario Sealift Assumptions ............................................................. 23 4.6. Syria Scenario Ground Movement Assumptions .............................................. 24 5.1. Venezuela Scenario Deployment Range .........................................................25 5.2. Russian Forces in the Venezuela Scenario ..................................................... 26 5.3. Venezuela Scenario Movement Plan ............................................................ 27 5.4. Venezuela Scenario Airlift Assumptions ....................................................... 28 5.5. Venezuela Scenario Sealift Assumptions ........................................................29 5.6. Venezuela Scenario Ground Movement Assumptions ........................................ 30 6.1. Ukraine Scenario Deployment Range ...........................................................31 6.2. Russian Forces in the Ukraine Scenario ........................................................32 6.3. Ukraine Scenario, Operational Phase 1 .........................................................33 6.4. Ukraine Scenario, Operational Phase 2 ........................................................ 34 6.5. Timeline of Units Ready to Deploy in the Ukraine Scenario ................................35 6.6. Ukraine Scenario Rail Assumptions ............................................................ 36 vii viii Russia’s Limit of Advance: Scenarios Table S.1. Summary Scenario Descriptions .................................................................. x Summary By the time of its 2014 incursion into Crimea, Ukraine, Russia had regained a significant por- tion of the
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