INTERNATIONAL POLICY ANALYSIS Presidential Elections in Cyprus in 2013 CHRISTOPHEROS CHRISTOPHOROU February 2013 n The right-wing party Democratic Rally is likely to return to power, twenty years since it first elected its founder, Glafcos Clerides, to the Presidency of the Republic of Cyprus and after ten years in opposition. The party’s leader may secure election in the first round, thanks to the alliance with the Democratic Party and the weakening of the governing communist Progressive Party of the Working People. n The economy displaced the Cyprus Problem as the central issue of the election cam- paign. The opposition blames the government’s inaction for the country’s ailing economy, while the government, the ruling AKEL and their candidate blame neolib- eral policies and the banking system. The candidate of the Social Democrats EDEK distinguishes himself by proposing to pre-sell hydrocarbons and do away with the Troika. He also openly opposes bizonality in a federal solution. n Whatever the outcome of the election, it will mark a new era in internal politics and in Cyprus’s relations with the European Union and the international community. The rapid weakening of the polarisation between left and right, at the expense of the left, may give rise to new forces. Their main feature is nationalist discourse and radical positions on the Cyprus Issue and other questions. Depending on the winner, Nicosia and Brussels may experience a kind of (their first) honeymoon or, conversely, a new period of strained relations. n At another level, the new President will have to govern under the scrutiny of the IMF and the European Union’s support mechanism. On the positive side, prospects related to hydrocarbons discovered south of the island may mean a brighter future when their exploitation starts. CHRISTOPHEROS CHRISTOPHOROU | PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN CYPRUS 2013 Contents 1. Introduction . 1 2. Political Forces and Presidential Candidates . .. 1 3. Election Campaign: Issues and Aims . 3 4. Scenarios . 5 5. Consequences . .5 6. Possible Effects on Finding a Solution to the Cyprus Problem . 6 CHRISTOPHEROS CHRISTOPHOROU | PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN CYPRUS 2013 1 . Introduction tions than with his predecessor Tassos Papadopoulos and good prospects of an outcome in the talks on the Presidential elections in the Republic of Cyprus take protracted Cyprus Problem. With the passage of years, precedence over all other elections; under the Repub- however, the climate has changed and the high rate of lic’s presidential system, only the outcome of this contest support and approval he initially enjoyed (70 per cent) may lead to a shift in power. Given that the incumbent among the Greek Cypriot electorate declined to as low president, Demetris Christofias, is not seeking re-elec- as 20 per cent. On the one hand, the President and his tion, a new government will be formed by the end of government faced fierce opposition in and outside the February 2013. The new president will have to face seri- parliament, sometimes arrogant opposition, even by the ous challenges, in particular the handling of the financial parties participating in the Council of Ministers; on the crisis facing the country, which is awaiting assistance other hand, little tolerance of criticism, and persistent by the European Union’s support mechanism and the laying the blame for all that went wrong on every one International Monetary Fund (IMF). A renewal of rela- else but the government was of little help in reaching tions with Brussels, the revival of the stalled talks on the compromises. Cyprus Issue with the Turkish Cypriot community and other, domestic issues will top the government’s agenda. The worsening of the economy forced the government to apply to the European Support Mechanism and made The Republic’s 1960 Constitution established a bi-com- it the top public issue. All parties except AKEL blame the munal state with Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots government for errors and inaction, while the latter and sharing power at all levels. Following the collapse of AKEL blame the neoliberal policies that caused a global bi-communality in 1963, the Republic has remained in crisis, the opposition parties that support such policies the hands of Greek Cypriots alone; full separation of the and the local banks that created huge debts through communities and territorial division was brought about their exposure to the markets in Greece. through the occupation of the northern part of the is- land by the Turkish Army, which followed a coup d’etat by the dictators in Athens in summer 1974. The aboli- 2 . Political Forces and tion of power sharing shifted the balance that was ini- Presidential Candidates tially drawn across community lines to the benefit of the executive power in the Greek-community-owned state. The party system is a multiparty one, with strong polari- Thus, the president is invested with executive powers sation between left and right, mainly consolidated since with regard to certain issues, but the Council of Minis- the 1940s. Parties play a very significant and decisive role ters is the executive body in most state affairs. However, in all fields of life through strong clientelist bonds with no conflicts or disagreements between them have been society. However, trust and confidence in them among known so far and one might suggest that the president’s citizens has been eroded in the past 5 – 7 years, affecting authority is similar to that of a monarch. also the parties’ mobilisation abilities. This led to a sharp increase in abstention rates from around 10 – 12 to 21 The president remains in office for five years, irrespective and 32 per cent in the parliamentary and the municipal of the composition of the parliament; the government elections of 2011, respectively. All parties have been af- needs no vote of confidence, but securing a majority fected by this crisis of confidence, although DISY to a in the House could help the smooth functioning of the lesser extent. state and approval of bills forwarded by the Council of Ministers. AKEL (Ανορθωτικό Κόμμα Εργαζομένου Λαού – Pro- gressive Party of the Working People) is the oldest party. Today’s general context and climate is one of disillu- Its influence, founded on active support of labour strug- sionment and anxiety over the future, in contrast to gles, strong organisational structures, economic activity the conditions that prevailed soon after the election and sustaining of the left–right cleavage, has been in of Demetris Christofias in February 2008. His election decline since it first assumed power (2001) and won the with a comfortable increase of six points (53.4 percent) presidency in 2008. The party’s »soft NO« to the United was welcome by Brussels as a promise of better rela- Nations proposal (Annan Plan) for a settlement in April 1 CHRISTOPHEROS CHRISTOPHOROU | PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN CYPRUS 2013 2004, despite its years-long support for rapprochement On the economy, it was agreed that growth would aim with the Turkish Cypriots and federation, along with at people’s welfare, combining private initiatives and the ups and downs of power and the financial crisis are state intervention where needed. The axes of develop- weakening its appeal. ment include structural changes, investment in human resources, technology upgrade, promotion of research AKEL opposed the candidacy of Archbishop Makarios in and development and encouragement of innovation. the first presidential elections (December 1959) by sup- Energy policy addressed two sectors, hydrocarbons and porting, in coalition with the traditional right, Yiannis development of renewable energy; one of the objectives Clerides, a conservative and father of Glafcos Clerides. is for Cyprus to become a regional centre that will also It subsequently supported and elected Makarios, Spyros export energy to Europe. Kyprianou and Tassos Papadopoulos, while in 1988 it elected the businessman George Vassiliou to the presiden- DIKO (Δημοκρατικο Κόμμα – Democratic Party), cy. Stavros Malas, a genetician, is the candidate supported founded 1976, has been in government for most of by AKEL in the February 2013 elections. His itinerary in- the time since the death of Makarios (1977), with Spy- cluded social democrats EDEK and the United Democrats ros Kyprianou (1977 – 1988) and Tassos Papadopoulos (Ενωμένοι Δημοκράτες – EDI). He was proposed as can- (2003 – 2008) and in coalition with DISY (1993 – 1998) didate by the incumbent President while holding the port- and with AKEL (2008 – 2011). DIKO’s decision to ally folio of Minister of Health. He had also contested – with- with DISY caused internal splits and disagreements at out success – a seat in parliament on the ticket of AKEL. the leadership and grassroots levels. Its vice-president Malas actively supported the UN (Annan) Plan. Nicolas Papadopoulos, son of the late president Tassos Papadopoulos, resigned from his post in January 2013, in DISY (Δημοκρατικος Συναγερμός – Democratic Rally), disagreement, other cadres already having left the party. founded in 1976 by Glafcos Clerides from conservative The main argument of the dissidents is that Anastasia- right and nationalist elements, has developed as the des’ past behaviour and positions on the Cyprus Prob- most pro-European political force. It elected its founder lem are in opposition to those of DIKO, which demands Glafcos Clerides in 1993 (with the support of DIKO) and a federal solution with the »correct content«, near to in 1998. Going against the majority of its grassroots, a unitary state. Having opposed the Annan Plan, DIKO it supported the Annan Plan, driven mainly by Nicos leaders considered the »Yes« vote as an act of treason. Anastasiades, its leader since 1997. The latter managed At the grassroots level, opinion polls in 2012 suggested to fix the pieces and heal the wounds of the party, which a higher rate of intentions to vote for Lillikas than for in the May 2011 parliamentary elections again became Anastasiades, in spite of the leadership’s choice.