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DOWNLOAD IPC South Sudan Famine Review 2020Nov Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions IPC FAMINE REVIEW CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR PIBOR COUNTY - SOUTH SUDAN - IPC ANALYSIS - NOVEMBER 2020 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The IPC Famine Review Committee (FRC) acknowledges the notable efforts made by the members of the South Sudan IPC Technical Working Group (TWG), who continue producing regular IPC analysis and updates while facing a highly complex emergency and volatile situation. The South Sudan IPC TWG and other members of the humanitarian community also demonstrated high levels of commitment in responding to the FRC’s requests for additional information and clarification during the review, which was highly appreciated. Daniel Maxwell Henry J. Leir, Professor in Food Security Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy Feinstein Int’l Center - Tufts University Nicholas Haan Faculty Chair, Global Grand Challenges Singularity University Oleg Bilukha Associate Director of Science Emergency Response and Recovery Branch Centre for Global Health / CDC Peter Hailey Director Centre for Humanitarian Change Andrew Seal Associate Professor in International Nutrition Centre for Climate Change, Migration, Conflict, and Health University College London - Institute for Global Health Jose Lopez Chair of IPC Famine Review Committee IPC Global Programme Manager IPC Global Support Unit (IPC GSU) The IPC Famine Review Committee (IPC FRC) was activated by the IPC Real Time Quality Review, requested by the IPC South Sudan IPC Technical Working Group (TWG). The Famine Review Process was coordinated and supported by the IPC Global Support Unit (IPC GSU). The IPC Development and implementation has been, and is, made possible by the support of: TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION TO THE PROCESS AND KEY CONCLUSIONS 1 2. MAIN ELEMENTS SUPPORTING THE FRC CONCLUSION FOR THE WESTERN PAYAMS OF PIBOR COUNTY 3 3. MAIN ELEMENTS SUPPORTING THE RISK OF FAMINE FOR THE EASTERN PAYAMS OF PIBOR COUNTY 7 4. RECOMMENDATIONS FROM THE FAMINE REVIEW COMMITTEE 9 ANNEX 1. DETAILED ANALYSES 11 6A. DETAILED ANALYSIS OF WESTERN PIBOR 11 6B. DETAILED ANALYSIS OF EASTERN PIBOR 25 ANNEX 2 - PIBOR DATA QUALITY CHECKS 31 7A. FOOD SECURITY DATA QUALITY CHECKS 31 7B. NUTRITION AND HEALTH DATA QUALITY CHECKS 44 ANNEX 3 - FAMINE GUIDANCE NOTE 45 IPC Funding Partners FEWS NET FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK EUROPEAN UNION 1. INTRODUCTION ON THE PROCESS AND KEY CONCLUSIONS The IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis was conducted extrapolation of data from Western payams to Eastern in South Sudan from October 26th to November 16th, payams would have been possible population-wise, the 2020. Due to breakdown in technical consensus in FRC estimates that the diversity of the livelihood zones, relation to the estimation of populations in IPC Phase 5 the different exposure and impact from floods or sub- in six counties, on November 17th, 2020, the IPC South national conflicts, along with the different perspective Sudan Technical Working Group partners requested the of evolution in the coming months, would deserve IPC Global Support Unit (GSU) to conduct a Real Time a separate classification. This is in line with the IPC Quality Review to assess the presence of populations in Famine Guidance Note (Section 2.7a), stating that ‘any IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) in the IPC Acute Food Insecurity population sub-groups or areas with at least 10,000 analysis in the counties of Akobo, Aweil South, Pibor, Tonj people can be classified in Famine or Famine Likely East, Tonj North and Tonj South. During this process, the for current or projected time periods if the minimum county of Pibor was found to present a very concerning evidence parameters are met for the specific population situation, with some indicators surpassing the IPC Phase sub-groups or areas. The classification of sub-groups or 5 thresholds. The RTQR proceeded with the activation sub-areas may be especially important if populations are of the Famine Review Process on November 19th, 2020, thought to be in IPC Phase 5 Catastrophe’. In summary, in accordance with the Famine Guidance Note1. The while the TWG classified Pibor County as a whole, the Famine Review Committee used the analysis and all FRC analyzed smaller units of analysis comprising four of evidence used by the IPC South Sudan Food Security the eight payams in Pibor county, hosting about three and Acute Malnutrition Technical Working Group. The fourths of the county population in the Western part of RTQR team reviewed the evidence and analysis for the the county, and separately the remaining four payams in other five areas and provided recommendations on the the Eastern part. estimation of populations in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) in a separate report. As mentioned, additional outcome evidence on nutrition to those gathered in early November at the onset of the It is important to note, that the main survey providing IPC analysis became available by the time the Famine outcome indicators for the IPC analysis (FSNMS, October Review was initiated. This evidence further confirmed 2020), as well as additional evidence on nutrition, the extreme severity and highlighted the continuous has sampled only the Western part of Pibor County deterioration of the situation. This additional evidence, (Gumuruk, Pibor, Lekuangole, Verteth payams). Pibor together with the already available evidence, has been county’s population distribution indicates that the essential in classifying Pibor County Western payams Western payams have about 80% of the population, (Gumuruk, Pibor, Lekuangole, Verteth) separately from prior to displacements towards Maruwa Hills and the Eastern payams, for which the minimum evidence Labarab, estimated to be around 74% currently. While level is not met, to produce a classification. 1 IPC Famine Guidance Note, http://www.ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ipcinfo/docs/IPC-Guidance-Note-on-Famine.pdf IPC GLOBAL FAMINE REVIEW COMMITTEE | 1 Table 1: Key Conclusions from the FRC on the Pibor County IPC Classification (November 2020) Area Period Classification done by the IPC TWG Classification done by the FRC Pibor County, October 2020 – IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) – Gumuruk, Pibor, Lekuangole, Verteth payams: Jonglei State November 2020 Acute Food Insecurity IPC Phase 5 (Famine Likely) IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) – Kizongora, Boma, Maruwa, and Mewun payams: Acute Malnutrition Essential pieces of evidence are missing to be able to make a Famine classification. These areas are ‘unclassified’ by the FRC. December 2020 – (December 2020 – March 2021) December 2020 - July 2021 July 2021 IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) – Acute Gumuruk, Pibor, Lekuangole, Verteth payams: Food Insecurity IPC Phase 5 (Famine Likely) IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) – Acute Kizongora, Boma, Maruwa, and Mewun payams: Malnutrition Essential pieces of evidence are missing to be able to make a (April 2021 – July 2021) Famine classification. These areas are ‘unclassified’ by the FRC. IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) – Acute Kizongora and Maruwa, payams: Food Insecurity The FRC concludes that these areas qualify for an IPC ‘Risk of IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) – Acute Famine’ statement. Malnutrition Map 1: South Sudan and Pibor County, localization of payams 2 | IPC GLOBAL FAMINE REVIEW COMMITTEE 2. MAIN ELEMENTS SUPPORTING THE FRC CONCLUSION FOR THE WESTERN PAYAMS OF PIBOR COUNTY (GUMURUK, PIBOR, LEKUANGOLE, VERTETH2) Overview of the current situation at 4%, with about 88% of the people relying on river water for consumption. The immunization coverage for In 2020, Pibor was particularly affected by sub-national and measles and vitamin A are around 40%, indicating poor localized violence and flooding, which destroyed homes, health services in general. More than half of the health livelihoods, burned to the ground key infrastructure, and nutrition centers have been destroyed or looted caused massive displacements (estimated above 60,000 during the conflict. Although county level estimates people), cut off access to humanitarian services, and are not available, State level information on caring and created almost insurmountable operational challenges feeding practices are very low, with only one third of for humanitarians delivering aid. These local shocks, the children exclusively breastfed – there is a significant together with macroeconomic trends, have also brought reduction in exclusive breastfeeding prevalence, from a significant increase in prices. Coordinated attacks of 67.7% in 2019 to 32.2% in 2020. Similarly, State level unprecedented violence took place in February-March child food consumption indicators show very poor and June-July, in Lekuangole and Gumuruk payams. status, with only about 17% children meeting minimum These attacks displayed extraordinary mobilization of dietary diversity requirements. forces, heavy weaponry, and different tactics, in a way that was distinct from previous raids that focused on the The usual mitigating factors present in the area are acquisition of cattle. The 2020 attacks rather targeted estimated to be insufficient to prevent a further civilians (385 fatalities, more than 350 abductions, more deterioration of conditions. Fishing is currently a source than 800 orphans), houses (about 39,000 homes were of food, however, this is practiced by a limited population burnt), burning crops, razing towns and destroying owning fishing equipment. Hunting is currently not infrastructures, markets, schools, facilities and warehouses, possible due to the water level. Humanitarian Food including
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