Understanding the Globalization of Intelligence Also by Adam D.M

Understanding the Globalization of Intelligence Also by Adam D.M. Svendsen Intelligence Cooperation and the War on Terror: Anglo-American Security Relations after 9/11 The Professionalization of Intelligence Cooperation: Fashioning Method out of Mayhem Understanding the Globalization of Intelligence

Adam D.M. Svendsen Intelligence and Defence Strategist, Educator and Researcher © Adam D.M. Svendsen 2012 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2012

All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6–10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2012 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978–0–230–36071–6 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 ISBN 978-1-349-34807-7 ISBN 978-1-137-28331-3 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9781137283313 To my parents, Penny and David Svendsen This page intentionally left blank Contents

Illustration and Plates viii Abbreviations and Acronyms ix Source Abbreviations xiii Author Notes xvii Acknowledgements xviii Preface: Intelligence and Globalization xix

Part I Background 1 Unpacking Intelligence and Liaison: Understanding basics, drivers and underlying mechanisms 3

Part II The Globalization of Intelligence in Action 2 The Burgeoning Globalization of Intelligence: Intelligence cooperation in practice 27 3 Overview: From intelligence to globalized intelligence during an era of terror, crises, and organized crime 74 4 Anatomy and Introducing Theory: Why ‘reach’ matters 99

Part III Conclusions 5 Where Next?: Suggestions for the future 119 6 Clarifying the Globalization Nexus: Explaining the ‘globalization of intelligence’ in the broader context and theory conclusions 133

Notes 156 Select Bibliography 203 Index 232

vii Illustration and Plates

Figure

4.1 An international intelligence liaison relationship in operation in theory 104

Plates

1 Donald Rumsfeld talks to members of the RAF 2 Donald Rumsfeld holds discussions with Geoff Hoon (right) and Sir Christopher Meyer 3 British Admiral Lord Michael Boyce inspects US troops with US General Richard B. Myers 4 Donald Rumsfeld selects a question while Geoff Hoon looks on 5 Donald Rumsfeld and Geoff Hoon hold talks 6 Donald Rumsfeld and Jack Straw hold discussions 7 Tony Blair and Condoleezza Rice pose for the press 8 US and British troops deploy together

viii Abbreviations and Acronyms

9/11 11 September 2001 – Terrorist attacks on the US 7/7 7 July 2005 – London bombings 21/7 21 July 2005 – Attempted London bombings ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations ‘C’ Chief of the Secret Intelligence Service (UK)

C4I[SR] Command, Control, Communications, Computers and Intelligence/Information [Surveillance and Reconnaissance] CBRNE Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and (high-yield) Explosive agents/weapons (WMD) CI Counter-Intelligence CIA Central Intelligence Agency (US) COBRA Cabinet Office Briefing Room ‘A’ (UK) COIN Counter-insurgency COMSEC Communications security CP Counter-proliferation CSEC Communications Security Establishment of Canada CSIS Canadian Security Intelligence Service CT Counter-terrorism CTC Counter-Terrorism Center (US CIA) DCI Director of Central Intelligence (US) DHS Department of Homeland Security (US) DIA Defense Intelligence Agency (US) DIS Defence Intelligence Staff (UK) DNI Director of National Intelligence (US) DoD Department of Defense/the Pentagon (US) DoJ Department of Justice (US) ECHR European Convention on Human Rights ELINT Electronic intelligence

ix x Abbreviations and Acronyms

EU European Union EUCOM European Command, RAF Molesworth, Cambridgeshire, UK (US) FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation (US) FCO Foreign and Commonwealth Office (UK) FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency (US) G8 Group of Eight GCHQ Government Communications Headquarters (UK) GEOINT Geospatial intelligence HEU Highly Enriched Uranium HUMINT Human intelligence IA Information assurance IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency (UN) IC Intelligence community ICT Information and Computing/Communications Technology IISS The International Institute for Strategic Studies IMINT Imagery intelligence INFOSEC Information security IP Internet Protocol IR International Relations ISC Intelligence and Security Committee (UK) IS[TA]R Intelligence, Surveillance [Target Acquisition] and Reconnaissance JAC Joint Analysis Center, EUCOM (US) JIC Joint Intelligence Committee (UK) JTAC Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (UK) ‘Legat’ FBI Legal Attaché (US)

M4IS Multinational, Multiagency, Multidisciplinary, Multidomain Information Sharing MASINT Measurement and signature intelligence MILINT/MI Military Intelligence MI5 The Security Service (UK) Abbreviations and Acronyms xi

MI6 The Secret Intelligence Service (UK) MLAT (1) UK-USUK–US Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty MLAT (2) Multilateral Legal Assistance Treaty MoD Ministry of Defence (UK) MoU Memorandum of Understanding MP Member of Parliament (UK) NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NCTC National Counterterrorism Center (US) NGO Non-governmental organization NIC National Intelligence Council (US) NIE National Intelligence Estimate (US) NPT (Nuclear) Non-Proliferation Treaty NSA (1) National Security Agency (US) NSA (2) National Security Adviser (US) NSC National Security Council (US) ODNI Office of the Director of National Intelligence (US) OPSEC Operations security ORCON Originator Control OSC Open Source Center (US) OSCE Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe OSINF Open source information OSINT Open source intelligence PKI Peacekeeping Intelligence PM Prime Minister PR Public relations PSCI Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (US) PSI Proliferation Security Initiative (US) RAF Royal Air Force (UK) RESINT Research-originating intelligence RMA Revolution in Military Affairs RUSI Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (UK) xii Abbreviations and Acronyms

SAS Special Air Service (UK) SBS Special Boat Service (UK) SF Special Forces (see also SOF) SIGINT Signals intelligence SIPRNet Secret Internet Protocol Router Network (US) SIS Secret Intelligence Service or MI6 (UK) SitCen European Union Joint Situation Centre SO15 Police Counter-Terrorism Command (UK) SOCA Serious Organised Crime Agency (UK) SOCOM Special Operations Command, Tampa, Florida (US) SOF Special Operations Forces SOIA Security Of Information Agreement (US) SSCI Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (US) SSR Security Sector Reform TTIC Terrorist Threat Integration Center, later NCTC (US) UAV Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (‘Drone’) UK United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland UKUSA ‘Five-eyes’ (UK, US, Australia, Canada and New Zealand) SIGINT arrangement UN United Nations UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime UNSC United Nations Security Council UNSCR United Nations Security Council Resolution US United States of America WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction WoT ‘War on Terror’ or ‘War on Terrorism’ or ‘Global War on Terror’ (GWoT) Source Abbreviations

ACA Arms Control Association AFP Agence France-Presse newswire AFPI American Foreign Policy Interests AP Associated Press newswire AR Annual Report BAS Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists BASIC British American Security Information Council BBC BBC News Online BJPIR British Journal of Politics and International Relations Brookings Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. CFR US Council on Foreign Relations, New York CH Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, London CL&SC Crime, Law & Social Change CNN CNN.com CNPP Carnegie Non-Proliferation Programme CREST CIA Research Tool (US) CRIA Cambridge Review of International Affairs CRS Congressional Research Service Report for Congress CS Comparative Strategy CSI CIA Studies in Intelligence CSP Contemporary Security Policy CUP Cambridge University Press DH Diplomatic History DT/ST Daily Telegraph/Sunday Telegraph (UK) FA Foreign Affairs FAS_SN Secrecy News, published by the Federation of American Scientists (US)

xiii xiv Source Abbreviations

FP Foreign Policy FT Financial Times GSN Global Security Newswire GU The Guardian HIR Harvard International Review HP The Huffington Post IA International Affairs IHT International Herald Tribune IISS International Institute for Strategic Studies IISS_AP IISS Adelphi Paper IISS_SC IISS Strategic Comments IISS_SS IISS Strategic Survey IJICI International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence INS Intelligence and National Security IS International Security ISC Intelligence and Security Committee (UK) ISN_SW ISN Security Watch ISP International Studies Perspectives JC&CM Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management JCMS Journal of Common Market Studies JCS Journal of Conflict Studies JDI Jane’s Defence Industry JDW Jane’s Defence Weekly JFR Jane’s Foreign Report JIAA Jane’s Islamic Affairs Analyst JID Jane’s Intelligence Digest JIDR Jane’s International Defence Review JIR Jane’s Intelligence Review JIW Jane’s Intelligence Weekly JME Journal of Military Ethics JTS Journal of Transatlantic Studies JTSM Jane’s Terrorism and Security Monitor Source Abbreviations xv

LAT Los Angeles Times LRB London Review of Books Mail The Daily Mail (UK) MUP Manchester University Press NPR National Public Radio (US) NPS New Political Science NSAr National Security Archive (US) NYRB New York Review of Books NYT New York Times OD OpenDemocracy OUP Oxford University Press PSJ The Policy Studies Journal PSQ Political Science Quarterly PSR Political Studies Review RDS RUSI Defence Systems RHS&RM RUSI Homeland, Security and Resilience Monitor RIS Review of International Studies RJ RUSI Journal RUSI Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, London SC&T Studies in Conflict & Terrorism SMH Sydney Morning Herald (Australia) SO Spiegel Online (Germany) SpyTalk SpyTalk – C.Q. Blog TA The Australian TAA The Age – Australia TL The Local (Sweden) TNPR The Nonproliferation Review TO The Observer (UK) TPQ The Political Quarterly TPV Terrorism and Political Violence TSO The Stationery Office, Norwich, UK xvi Source Abbreviations

TST The Sunday Times (UK) TWF The Washington File – US INFO TWQ The Washington Quarterly TWT The World Today – Chatham House, London UPI United Press International USIP US Institute of Peace USN&WR US News & World Report WB Wired.com (Danger Room) Blog WP Washington Post WSJ Wall Street Journal WT Washington Times Author Notes

Non-attributable sources

While researching for this study (and its companion volumes, Svendsen, 2010a and 2012e), over 60 (elite) interviews (i) were conducted in the United Kingdom and the United States of America. In a variety of ways, at least a further 60 prominent people were consulted (c), and kindly provided helpful insights and guidance in varying forms. Several meet- ings, conferences, workshops and training courses were also attended across the UK, and in the US, Italy, Ireland, Canada, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Naturally, due to the sensitive nature of this subject, the majority of these interactions took place ‘off the record’ and/or under the Chatham House Rule. The label ‘non-attributable source’ is used in endnotes to identify contributions from these sources.

A further note on sourcing, referencing and terminology

Contemporary historians and analysts of intelligence find themselves increasingly dependent upon, and ‘triangulating’, sources such as published official strategy documents, think-tank and media output, as well as the semi-structured (‘elite’) interviews they have conducted, particularly as they become more up-to-date in their work. The extensive references and endnotes provided in this study reflect engagement with those trends. For clarity, the references have been collected and presented together at the end of this study in a ‘Select Bibliography’ to constitute a form of reference library. Throughout the text, the key and strongest reference is generally cited first in any list of references, with subsequent references being ordered alphabetically, i.e. (Smith 2001 [strongest source]; see also Auld, 2009; Cotton, 2008; Dexter, 1999). On the explicit use of ‘vis-à-vis’ in this study: this term is particularly used to mean ‘in relation to’ in order to draw a distinction both with and between the term ‘versus’, which instead means ‘against’ or ‘in opposition to’. The term ‘vis-à-vis’ is used as a different ‘operator’, which particularly matters in domains such as politics and international relations, where sensitive nuances can impact significantly on prevailing developments.

xvii Acknowledgements

In the UK, thanks go to: my family, Penny, David and Zoë Svendsen; Richard J. Aldrich at the University of Warwick; and to Philip H.J. Davies, at Brunel University, Uxbridge (especially for his organization of the ‘Intelligence and Globalization’ workshop, held during June 2009). Many thanks also go to: Stuart Croft (Warwick); Wyn Rees at the University of Nottingham. In the USA, many thanks go to: Daniel Byman at the Center for Peace and Security Studies (CPASS), Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, Washington, DC (for sponsor- ing my visiting scholarship during June–September 2007). In Denmark, the Centre for Military Studies (CMS), in the Department of Political Science (IFS) at the University of Copenhagen (KU), provides an excel- lent research environment; and many thanks go to the other staff and to my fellow-students at all these universities for their support. Thanks also go to the interviewees, and to everyone else I have consulted when constructing this study, especially to Christina M. Brian and Julia Willan at Palgrave Macmillan.

Adam D.M. Svendsen

xviii Preface: Intelligence and Globalization

The purpose of this book is manifold. Covering much subject terrain, two aspects particularly stand out: while seeking to (i) provide a con- cise general introduction to the complexities of contemporary Western Intelligence and its dynamics during an era of ‘globalization writ large’, this book more specifically offers (ii) arguments towards facilitating a general understanding of the distinct process of the ‘globalization of intelligence’. Several timely insights are provided. The central unifying thesis is clear. This book argues that the overall process of the ‘globalization of intelligence’ is accomplished through: enhanced intelligence and information cooperation, which is conducted in a focused, directed and purposeful manner in various overlapping multi- functional operational contexts across the globe. More technically, this type of interaction is officially known as ‘liaison’. Accordingly, the phenomenon of international or foreign intelligence liaison, as it occurs in both theory and practice, forms the main focus of this study. Summarizing the core findings presented in this book: the general trends strongly suggest that intelligence liaison is on ‘a continuum with expansion’ in the early twenty-first century. Significantly, these activities connect and add up through their various degrees of ‘fusion’, collectively contributing towards the readily observable overall increased globalization of intelligence. Reflecting a ‘complex coexistence plurality’ of several different and overlapping concepts in action, this challenging process emerges as: (i) essential for complex issue management purposes during a globalized era characterized by transnational terror, crises (man-made and natural), and organized crime; while (ii) simultaneously raising several valid accountability and oversight concerns (Born et al., 2011; see also ‘Intelligence accountability’ in Johnson, 2010b).1 These factors make the exploration of the globalization of intelligence and its related phenomena, such as intelligence liaison, stand out as important. Further evaluation is offered. Together with providing some detailed insights into the intelligence world and into how international interactions occur in – and, equally, how others overlap with – this frequently secretive domain of activity, several potentially useful les- sons are proposed. These include: (i) some operational-to-strategy- and policy- orientated suggestions regarding the possible enhanced future

xix xx Preface: Intelligence and Globalization governance and management of intelligence liaison extending to the ‘globalization of intelligence’; and (ii) considering some closely related aspects, such as how intelligence collection, analysis and assessment/ estimate activities more generally can possibly be further optimized as the twenty-first century progresses. In this study, aims are fulfilled through: (i) further developing the concept of ‘reach’ in the intelligence and security context (defined as essentially the familiar idea of ‘intelligence and security coverage’, but with added active influence potential value attached); and then (ii) assess- ing the dynamics associated with that ‘intelligence and security reach’, termed ‘reach dynamics’.2 Acknowledging the nature of the ‘highly sensitive’ subject of intelligence, and more specifically intelligence liaison, and that some realms might continue to be more ‘fenced-off’ due to secrecy considerations, this book also offers several directions ripe for future research (Svendsen, 2010a, p. 102). A broad canvas is adopted to communicate several ideas. Continuing in an exploratory manner, attempts at the greater connection of the intelligence liaison phenomenon, extending to the ‘globalization of intelligence’, with a range of ‘mainstream’ bodies of ‘theory’, as well as the more direct ‘theorization’ of intelligence liaison itself, are then undertaken to try to further enhance our understanding. Ultimately, I intend to advance an overarching and literature-spanning analytical framework, with the initial population of that space. Many conclusions are offered for consideration. With its emphasis on the dynamics of targeted communication and information flows, this book will also be of interest to those involved in similar interactions occurring in domains beyond merely the (‘pure’) intelligence sector and community (and the work it conducts, the material it handles, and the products it delivers). This includes being of interest to those people who are involved in any form of critical information flow processes, such as, most notably, crisis and civil protection managers and emergency planners, as well as being of interest to those working in the fields of communications, globalization and governance studies. Developments unfolding in multi-functional operational contexts ranging from war to peace have considerable relevance. In various ways, several key themes overlap and fuse (Miskel, 2008; see also Avant et al., 2010; Gray, 2007b; Svendsen, 2011b). Throughout this book, the following two key themes are prominent: First: in an era of ‘globalization writ large’, the general phenomenon of international intelligence liaison is evolving in harmony with the trend of being on ‘a continuum with expansion’ (Svendsen, 2010a, Preface: Intelligence and Globalization xxi pp. 42, 170, 172, 2012a). Through a management lens, this is so that multi-dimensional intelligence and security reach across and into multi- ple domains of operation and human activity at home and abroad can be enhanced, as well as extended into ‘new’ areas. Ideally, this ‘reach’ enhancement is accomplished in an appropriately proportional manner to that of the targeted threat, hazard, or risk. In the process, this opens up a whole range of intelligence and security ‘reach dynamics’ to being worthy of consideration, including ‘outreach’ movements (Treverton, 2009b). As Martin Libicki of RAND has observed: ‘Those with the most attractive systems – in terms of information, knowledge, services, and reach – have an inherent advantage.’ (Libicki, 2007, p. 3) When com- prehensively explored, collectively these ‘reach dynamics’ provide a powerful explanatory prism through which contemporary intelligence, its activities, and its related phenomena, such as intelligence liaison and surveillance, can all be understood in a suitably interconnected manner. Second: manifest as a proactive response to the familiar general long-term historical trend, recently more rapidly accelerated, of: (i) ‘globalization writ large’ (essentially what we generally understand by the term ‘globalization’ (see Chapter 1 (12.0), below)); and (ii) the impact of ‘globalization on intelligence’ – most notably the influence of all of globalization’s well-known ‘nasties’, felt especially post-1989 and after the Cold War (see Chapter 6, below);3 (iii) the ‘globalization of intelligence’, occurring especially in the early twenty-first century and post-9/11, can be discerned (Svendsen, 2010a, pp. xx–xxi; see also Svendsen, 2008a, b). Arguably the most direct manifestation of ‘intelligence and globalization’, including delving most deeply into what globalization means for intelligence, the globalization of intelligence is emerging through the mechanism of enhanced international intelligence liaison, together with being facilitated by the developments occurring both within and beyond those arrangements. This process includes factors such as ‘intelligence and security reach dynamics’ (as introduced above), and developments extending beyond merely the regionalization of intelligence processes, including overlapping with ‘glo- calization’4 (Svendsen, 2011c; see Chapter 3 (2.1), below). In their impact, all of these issues very much concern present intelligence activities, requiring careful close consideration by intelligence communities well into the future (Dorn, 2010; see also Aldrich, 2010).5 Appropriately following soon after the centennial anniversary year of British Intelligence (2009–2010), these key, closely inter-related, themes will now be examined further.