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Alkem Laboratories Ltd. BUY Alkem Laboratories Ltd. BUY Target Price ₹ 2,306 CMP ₹ 1,698 FY22E PE 20X Index Details The acute therapy segment, in which Alkem is a market leader, is Sensex 38,730 seeing a significant slowdown. In order to fortify its growth and Nifty 11,641 maintain market leadership Alkem has strategized to diversify its revenue stream by foraying into the fast-growing chronic therapy Industry Pharma segment for the domestic markets and developing generic solutions for the world’s largest pharma market namely the US. Scrip Details MktCap (`cr) 20,302.0 Over the last four years Alkem has been working on building capabilities in the direction of its intended strategy. Till date the BVPS (`) 416.9 company has invested ~ Rs. 900 crores in building manufacturing O/s Shares (Cr) 12.0 facilities and R&D activities for filing 120 ANDAs for the US AvVol (Lacs) 10.7 geography. Going ahead we expect revenues to grow at 13% CAGR to Rs 10,309 crores by FY22. EBIDTA and net earnings are expected to 52 Week H/L 2,265/1,693 grow to Rs. 1,856 crores and Rs. 1,398 crores respectively over the Div Yield (%) 0.7 same period. We expect the company to become virtually net debt free FVPS (`) 2.0 by FY22. As a result, return ratios ROE & ROCE are also expected to improve by 220 bps and 60 bps to 15.3% & 19.7% respectively by FY22. Shareholding Pattern Shareholders % We initiate with a BUY for a price target of Rs. 2,306 representing an Promoters 66.0 upside of 36% over 36 months from the CMP of Rs. 1,698 Public 34.0 Our optimism stems from the following Total 100.0 1. The company’s India revenue is expected to grow at 10% CAGR to Rs. 6,685 crores by FY22 driven by Alkem vs. Sensex • Robust growth of 21% CAGR from the chronic segment on 44000 2600 the back of new product launches STOCK POINTER 2400 40000 • Maintaining the market leadership in the acute segment 2200 36000 with a stable growth of 6% CAGR 2000 2. US geography to demonstrate a healthy growth of 21% CAGR 32000 1800 to Rs. 2,993 crores by FY22 on back of approval pipeline. 1600 28000 3. Other International market to grow at 7% CAGR to Rs. 630 1400 24000 crores on account of strong product base and more than 800 1200 20000 1000 approvals across various markets. SENSEX Alkem Lab Key Financials (Rs in cr) EBITDA PAT RoE RoCE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA Y/E March Sales EBITDA PAT EPS BV Margin (%) Margin(%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) FY18 6,432 1,028 638 16.0 9.9 52.8 406.8 13.1 19.1 32.7 4.3 21.4 FY19E 7,290 1,193 802 16.4 11.0 66.2 471.5 14.2 18.1 25.7 3.6 16.9 FY20E 8,169 1,360 938 16.6 11.5 77.4 548.9 14.2 18.4 21.9 3.1 14.4 FY21E 9,172 1,587 1,154 17.3 12.6 95.2 644.1 14.9 19.1 17.8 2.6 11.8 FY22E 10,309 1,856 1,398 18.0 13.6 115.3 759.4 15.3 19.7 14.7 2.2 9.6 - 1 - Thursday, 25th April, 2019 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. ❖ Company Background Established in 1973, Alkem is ranked amongst the top ten domestic pharmaceutical companies in terms of sales. It has also been ranked the #1 anti-infective company for the past 10 years and features amongst the leading pharmaceutical companies in the therapeutic segments of gastro-intestinal, pain management and vitamins / minerals / nutrients. Alkem has a comprehensive portfolio of over 800 brands covering all the major therapeutic segments and a robust pan-India sales and distribution network. It has a strong and extensive Pan-India distribution network of 11 warehouses, 40+ sales depots, 7000+ Stockists and 9,000 people in the field force covering all states including rural India. Apart from having a strong foothold in the domestic market, the company also has presence in more than 50 international markets, with the United States being the key focus international market. Alkem has 21 manufacturing facilities, with 19 being in India and 2 located in the USA. The major five locations involved in the sales operations overseas are USA, Australia, Chile, United Kingdom and Germany. Company Overview Source: Company, Ventura Research - 2 - Thursday, 25th April 2019 This document is for private circulation and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. Geographical presence ManMana Manufacturing Facilities R&D Facilities Source: Company, Ventura Research - 3 - Thursday, 25th April 2019 This document is for private circulation and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. ❖ Key Investment Highlights ➢ FY15-FY18: Over the period FY15-18, revenues grew at a scorching 20% CAGR to reach Rs. 6,431 crores in FY18 from Rs. 3,743 crores recorded in FY15. The growth was mainly driven by: - 1. Aggressive expansion of its MR force improving the doctor coverage 2. Acquisition of a multi-dosage formulation facility acquired at St. Louis, US, which is near to its new market. 3. An exclusive in-licensing agreement with Haw Par India Private Limited to distribute Tiger Balm range of products in India. This has aided in the building out its OTC business. 4. New product launches and in-licensed product opportunities and improving market share in key emerging therapies like neuro, CNS, cardiac and anti- diabetic over the period FY15-18. 5. Strong underlying demand in nouveau markets of Australia, Chile and Kazakhstan. Over the same period, EBITDA witnessed 35% CAGR to Rs. 1,028 crores in FY18 from Rs. 422 crores in FY15 with margins expanding 475 bps to 16% from 11.3% in FY18. Despite higher taxation, PAT grew by a CAGR of 18% to Rs.638 crores in FY18 from Rs. 392 crores in FY15, which is attributable to lower interest expense. PAT margin witnessed a decline 510 bps to 9.9% from 10.5% as a result of the one-off higher tax outlay. - 4 - Thursday, 25th April 2019 This document is for private circulation and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. Key Milestones of Alkem 12,000 20% 10,500 18% 16% 9,000 14% 7,500 12% 6,000 10% 4,500 8% 6% 3,000 4% 1,500 2% 0 0% FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E India US ROW EBITDA Margin PAT Margin 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E Return on Equity (ROE) Return on Capital employed (ROCE) 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E -400 -600 Cashflow from Operations Free Cashflow to Firm ________________________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Company, Ventura Research - 5 - Thursday, 25th April 2019 This document is for private circulation and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. ➢ FY18-FY21 ➢ Domestic business We expect the India revenues to grow at a CAGR of 10% to Rs. 6,685 crores by FY22E from Rs.4,597 crores in FY18 driven by • Maintenance of market leadership with its established product portfolio. We expect the acute therapy to maintain a stable growth of ~6% CAGR registering a revenue of Rs. 4,611 crores by FY22 from Rs. 3,602 crores in FY18. • Going forward chronic being the focus area in India, we expect it to grow at 21% CAGR to Rs. 2,073 crores from Rs. 957 crores on the back of new launches and improving market share. India Sales Growth 8,000 (Rs. in crs) 35% 7,000 30% 6,000 25% 5,000 20% 4,000 15% 3,000 10% 2,000 1,000 5% 0 0% FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E India YoY Growth _________________________________________________________________________ Source: Company, Ventura Research - 6 - Thursday, 25th April 2019 This document is for private circulation and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. Major revenue generating Brands of Alkem Therapeutic Domestic IMS Market Brand Category Sales (Rs. crs) Rank Share (%) Clavam AI 299.9 2 14.8 Pan GI 242.6 1 28.6 Pan-D GI 224.7 1 27.7 Taxim-O AI 183.3 2 20.5 Taxim AI 140.2 1 76.7 A to Z NS VMS 118.9 4 6.7 Xone AI 112.8 2 13.2 Gemcal Pain 109.7 1 30.8 Sumo Pain 87.0 2 10.5 Ondem GI 82.7 1 27.2 ___________________________________________________________________ Source: Company, Ventura Research Alkem’s Performance in Key Therapeutic Segments Company’s Therapy Sales Market Company’s Industry Therapy Area Rank Contribution (%) Share (%) Growth (%) Growth (%) Anti-infectives 1 40 11.2 2.7 1.5 Gastro Intestinal 3 18 5.9 6.7 5.3 Pain/Analgesics 3 12 5.5 10.6 3.5 Vitamins/ Minerals/ 4 8 3.7 11.5 6.0 Nutrients Neuro/CNS 9 4 2.4 12.1 3.8 Derma 18 4 1.6 19.4 13.8 Anti-Diabetic 25 2 0.9 20.3 11.8 Cardiac 26 2 0.7 17.6 6.0 Alkem 6 100 3.5 7.2 6.3 ________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Company, Ventura Research - 7 - Thursday, 25th April 2019 This document is for private circulation and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
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