Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report
Project Number: 42147 November 2010
India: Preparing the Dedicated Freight Corridor Project
Prepared by Scott Wilson India Pvt. Ltd. New Delhi, India
For Ministry of Railways Government of India
This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design.
Asian Development Bank
Feasibility Feasibility Study: Ludhiana to Khurja Dedicated Freight Corridor
Final Report / Contract No. COSO/90-527 (TA 7207-IND) Volume 1 of 4: November 2010
www.scottwilson.com
Asian Development Bank Feasibility Study: Ludhiana to Khurja Dedicated Freight Corridor
Status: Final Report
Report Verification
Name Position Signature Date
Prepared By: Graham Hewitt Senior Rail Economist 19 th November 2010
Senior Rail th Checked By: Ron Seward 19 November 2010 Engineering Expert
Approved By: Kevin Sparrow Project Director 23 rd November 2010
Revision Schedule
Revision Date Details of Revision Issued by
First Issue 20 Oct 2009 First Issue – Draft Final Report Babu. V
VO1 28 Jan 2010 Format/content revised – Draft Final Report Babu. V
Operational/Economic review of benefits VO2 06 Oct 2010 accruing from removing freight traffic from Kevin Sparrow row Indian Railways to Dedicated Freight Corridor A further economic review (including environmental) of benefits accruing from VO3 23 Nov 2010 Kevin Sparrow removing freight traffic from Indian Railways to Dedicated Freight Corridor
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Final Report (VO3) A013876 Asian Development Bank Feasibility Study: Ludhiana to Khurja Dedicated Freight Corridor
Volume 1 of 4: Study Commentary - Table of Contents
0. Executive Summary ...... 7 Train Plan...... 7 Operations Management...... 7 Centralised Traffic Control system ...... 8 Signalling...... 8 Telecommunications...... 9 Control Centre ...... 9 Electric Traction...... 9 Alignment and Civil Engineering ...... 9 Procurement...... 11 Contract management ...... 11 Economic Analysis...... 12 Financial Analysis...... 13 Financial Management...... 13 Conclusion...... 13 1. Introduction...... 15 Award ...... 15 Project Documentation...... 16 Study Objective...... 16 Volume 1 - Report Contents...... 18 2. DFC: Background, Development and Preferred Alternative ...... 19 Background...... 19 Development...... 20 The Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporation of India Limited (DFCCIL) ...... 22 RITES: Preliminary Engineering cum Traffic Survey (PETS) Report ...... 22 MOR Response: RITES Report ...... 22 JICA: Feasibility study Report of Japan International Cooperation Agency ...... 23 MOR Response: JICA Report...... 23 Ludhiana to Khurja Preferred Alternative ...... 23 3. Traffic Analysis...... 25 Traffic Growth...... 25 Traffic Analyses - Eastern Corridor, Ludhiana to Khurja...... 25 4. Operations and Safety...... 35 Operations...... 35 Introduction...... 35 Operations review and analysis ...... 36 Level Crossings...... 37 Introduction...... 37
Final Report (VO3) A013876 Asian Development Bank Feasibility Study: Ludhiana to Khurja Dedicated Freight Corridor
Level Crossing Recommendations...... 39 Train Plan...... 41 Initial Optioneering...... 41 Train Plan Elements...... 41 Graphical Train Plan Methodology ...... 43 Train Plan Observations...... 44 Train Plan Conclusions...... 44 Train Plan Recommendations...... 45 Operational Safety...... 45 General...... 45 Operational Safety Conclusions...... 46 Operational Safety Recommendations...... 47 5. Infrastructure Review...... 49 Section 1 Alignment...... 49 Section 2 Civil Engineering, Earthworks, Bridges and Construction ...... 58 Section 3 Signalling ...... 76 Section 4 Telecommunication ...... 88 Section 5 Electrification...... 90 6. Contract Structure and Implementation ...... 97 DFCCIL Proposals...... 97 Contract packaging...... 97 Implementation risks...... 98 Recommendations...... 98 7. Procurement ...... 103 General...... 103 Consultant Experience...... 103 Recommendation...... 105 8. Loan Implementation...... 107 Introduction...... 107 Recommendation...... 107 Terms of Reference for Supervisory Consultant...... 108 9. Quality management system review...... 113 Current status...... 113 Consultant Experience...... 114 Recommendation...... 114 10. Economic Analysis...... 115 Introduction...... 115 Background...... 115 Socio economic and Poverty Profile...... 119 Economic Evaluation and Economic Impact ...... 121
Final Report (VO3) A013876 Asian Development Bank Feasibility Study: Ludhiana to Khurja Dedicated Freight Corridor
Environmental requirement ...... 134 Design and Monitoring Framework (DMF) ...... 134 Environmental, Resettlement and Socio-economic & Poverty Specialists ...... 138 11. Financial Analysis ...... 141 Introduction...... 141 Appraisal of project route...... 143 Financial Management in DFCCIL ...... 156 12 Recommendations ...... 159 General...... 159 Train Plan...... 159 Operations Management...... 160 Level Crossings...... 160 Operational Safety...... 161 Centralised Traffic Control system ...... 161 Driver Safety – Signalling Auxiliary Warning System (AWS) ...... 161 Signalling...... 162 Telecommunications...... 162 Control Centre ...... 163 Electric Traction...... 163 Alignment and Civil Engineering ...... 164 Construction...... 166 Contract strategy ...... 167 Procurement...... 168 Loan Implementation ...... 168 Economic Analysis...... 169 Financial Analysis...... 170 Acknowledgements:...... 173
Final Report (VO3) A013876 Asian Development Bank Feasibility Study: Ludhiana to Khurja Dedicated Freight Corridor
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Final Report (VO3) A013876 Asian Development Bank Feasibility Study: Ludhiana to Khurja Dedicated Freight Corridor
0. Executive Summary
0.1 Scott Wilson was commissioned in May 2009 by the Asian Development Bank to undertake a feasibility study of the 430km Ludhiana to Khurja section of the Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor DFC. The principal study objective was to undertake a review, analysis and update of the DFC documentation and other appropriate supplemental information to determine its suitability for ADB financing.
0.2 Project documentation comprised the Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporation of India Limited (DFCCIL) Preliminary Draft Business Plan, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) feasibility study and the RITES’s preliminary engineering cum Traffic Survey (PETS) report.
0.3 The preferred alignment based on the project documentation and developed by DFCCIL has been reviewed and the consultant recommends that it be adopted. By predominantly running the DFC in parallel with Indian Railways the environmental impacts are greatly reduced, and the planned corridor detours and grade separations ensure the DFC can run an independent operation.
Train Plan
0.4 Success of the DFC depends on the DFCCIL ability to design and construct the DFC infrastructure and implement and deliver an absolutely reliable train plan. The train plan will ensure that all forecast traffic movements along the DFC are catered for effectively and appropriately over the period of concession, and then drive, and remain as the driver for, setting levels of corridor infrastructure availability over the same period.
0.5 The project documentation did not include a train plan, so one was prepared based on the DFCCIL Business Plan traffic forecasts between 2007 and 2037, assuming a standard train length of 686 metres (equivalent to containment within a 750m loop track) with an axle load of 25 tonnes. The plan accommodates 35/36 Trains each Way per Day (TEWPD) and includes provision of a daily maintenance block of 4 hours.
0.6 The train plan assumes operations are conducted in an “ideal” set of circumstances where uncontrolled disruptive influences are reduced to a minimum. There is always a “trade-off” between capacity (in terms of numbers of trains) and performance or operational reliability. For a project and concession period of this magnitude, best practice would use a computer simulated model to test this trade-off and the plan’s robustness. It is therefore recommended that such an exercise be undertaken. Given that the single line with passing loops configuration of the infrastructure, it is essential some provision is made for reserve capacity to handle disruption and out-of-course running on the wider IR system.
Operations Management
0.7 The DFCCIL is the infrastructure provider and manager, and not responsible for train crew, traction, train movements and the commodities it will carry in transit. Issues such as adequacy of traction/wagon provision in respect of, for example, the carriage of dangerous goods, are outside its jurisdiction, although the DFCCIL will need to be indemnified for the intrinsic track-worthiness of all traffic running on its infrastructure. In order to confirm such track worthiness and other issues, the consultant recommends that the DFCCIL be granted access to Indian Railway Freight Operations Information System FOIS (a computerised freight management system) as part of the concession agreement.
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Level crossings:
0.8 Level crossings probably constitute one of the greatest challenges from a business perspective, to the management of DFCCIL operations, and failure to address the issues thoroughly will render the DFC unviable.
0.9 There are 189 Level Crossings in the entire section making it roughly one level crossing every 2km. Of these, 97 are to be replaced with either Road Over Bridges (ROBs) or Road Under Bridges (RUBs), 76 are to be upgraded and the remainder are currently unmanned. The consultant recommends that the unmanned crossings are either closed, or manned and provided with improved technology. Revisions are additionally recommended to the norms for level crossings to improve safety (see Chapter 4).
Operational safety
0.10 Establishing a safety standards regime to provide a starting point for measurable improvement in safety over time should be implemented at project start. Without such a regime the DFCCIL will remain reactive to incidents and accidents as they occur during construction of the DFC and when it is operating parallel to, and interchanging traffic with, IR lines.
0.11 The Consultant recommends that the DFCCIL arrange a full strategic safety survey in order to provide a base plan for addressing safety for temporary and permanent DFCCIL personnel.
0.12 With regard to train drivers, the DFCCIL proposes continuation of current IR practises where train operations are largely dependant on the vigil of the locomotive drivers.
0.13 The consultant recommends that for freight operations of the scale proposed on the DFC, all drivers are provided with an Auxiliary Warning System (AWS) as part of signalling design which links locomotive control with the signalling system to minimise risks of any driver passing signals at danger.
Centralised Traffic Control system
0.14 The DFCCIL plan to provide a Train Management System (TMS) in a central location to monitor the movement of all trains as well as monitor various maintenance parameters.
0.15 A TMS is a scaled down version of a Centralised Traffic Control (CTC) system with virtually the same hardware but without modern functionality. The consultant recommends that a CTC with the reliability of axle-counters to prove track occupation and clearances be specified for the single line section of the Eastern DFC. This will include all the features of a TMS and enable remote operation of all stations on the section with many consequential operational benefits.
Signalling
0.16 The DFCCIL proposes an absolute block system which has the limitation of being able to run only one train in the block section however long that block section is made. The absolute block system is a safe, low-technology system, adequate for operations where the lack of a consistent timetable is not an issue, but not a solution for train operations in a modern railway network. For increasing capacity in a consistently timetabled manner, an automatic block signalling (ABS) operation is recommended. By utilising ABS, train operators will be able to provide a line capacity of 30 - 40 trains each way in a 24 hour period over the single line section. The ABS will also enable the frequency of DFC crossing stations to be reduced from every 10km to every 25km.
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Telecommunications
0.17 The consultant recommends that Optical Fibre Cable communication form the backbone of the data and speech communication for operational and commercial purposes of the DFCCIL. A GSM-R network is being provided by Indian Railways in the Delhi-Mughalsari section for reliable communication coverage between locomotives and control room. This traffic/train crew infrastructure communicates with and utilises a backbone of Optic Fibre Cable OFC and wireless equipment at outstations.
0.18 All IR locomotives will progressively be fitted with GSM-R equipment with mobile coverage from IR network. The proposed DFC alignment including the detour areas will be in close proximity to the existing railway transmission line. Some minor investment may be necessary to extend the control equipment of GSM-R to DFCCIL control outstations, however, this need only be carried out when the GSM-R network is fully functional and all locomotives using the DFC have been fitted with GSM-R equipment. Accordingly no investment on account of GSM-R is recommended at this stage.
Control Centre
0.19 The consultant recommends that the main DFCCIL control centre be located in the National Capital Region (NCR) along with other sections of the DFC under traffic control of the DFCCIL. The control centre may be located at any station between Khurja- Ludhiana.
0.20 As a safeguard against natural disasters or other emergency situations it is additionally recommended that the entire control office is replicated at a separate and independent location between Ludhiana to Khurja with facility to start emergency operations whenever required by the DFCCIL main control office in the NCR region.
Electric Traction
0.21 The Consultant supports the DFCCIL proposal to use a 2 x 25kV auto-transformer system for the DFC and recommends that the design takes account of future traffic projections over the first 15 to 20 years of operation. The provision of traction feeding substations at the starting and ending points of the corridor section should remain. The substation spacing beyond Kalanaur could be greater than elsewhere as projected traffic on this section is much less compared to other sections. The consultant recommends that simulation studies for power supply be carried out during the design planning phase to confirm the exact location of traction substations.
0.22 It should be noted that the use of a different electrification system for the DFC compared with the rest of the IR network necessarily implies either the use of dual voltage locomotives or infrastructure provision to enable the handover to take place. These issues go beyond the immediate scope of this study but do form part of the wider funding issues to be addressed by IR.
0.23 No double-stack containers will be permitted on this section of corridor and the consultant recommends that the over line structures be designed to the standard IR Maximum Moveable Dimension to permit the running of single stack container trains only.
Alignment and Civil Engineering
0.24 The Consultant supports the preferred alternative alignment that runs predominantly in parallel with the established Indian Railways mixed traffic network. Corridor detours that form part of the alignment provide grade separation from the IR network to provide independence of operation from each other as far as practicable. The preferred alternative alignment also
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reduces as much as reasonably practicable, the environmental impact of the project both in terms of additional land purchase and its visual aspect (proximity to existing rail network) and the socio-economic impact in terms of resettlement.
0.25 The current alignment drawings have not been sufficiently developed to allow detailed analysis of future double track design proposals and the consultant recommends that a thorough topographic survey be undertaken, and subsequent designs prepared in 3D to facilitate construction and future maintenance.
0.26 The track geometry given in the DFCCIL Performance Specification is acceptable but the consultant recommends that the minimum horizontal radius of 700m be increased to 1000m minimum radius to facilitate increased line speed and less intensive maintenance in the future. Other recommendations (see Chapter 5) include:
• further analysis of proposed grade separations at various locations be carried out on receipt of survey data to in order to optimise alignments
• research to be undertaken to determine the optimum mix of existing weak embankment material with other materials such as fly ash or cement to create a suitable fill material.
• small minor bridges are replaced with corrugated steel pipes to provide simpler and speedier construction.
• bridge designs are standardised wherever possible to improve construction efficiency and save cost particularly at grade separations and where the consultant recommends earthworks be replaced by viaduct to reduce the socio-environmental impact of the project.
• adequate provision is made on ROBs for safe pedestrian use; alternatively dedicated footbridges should be constructed
• public education sessions be arranged in towns and villages along the route to make the public aware of the dangers of trespass on the railway and anti trespass fencing be constructed at the locations of those level crossings that are replaced by ROBs.
• new rail carrying structures carry ballasted track in order to reduce noise, and noise barriers are erected in populated areas where noise is likely to be a key environmental factor.
• rail expansion joints where possible be eradicated in line with international best practice
• 260.0m lengths of rail, as opposed to 13m lengths adopted throughout.
0.27 The performance specification for this corridor is adequate for 32.5 tonne axle load trains. The Consultant recommends that all new construction be designed to carry this load i.e., earthworks and both major and minor bridges.
0.28 The Consultant recommends that for large bridges, launching the structures is in general the most appropriate method of construction. Construction of substructures to river/irrigation channel crossings should be planned around the dry season, and designs kept simple, for example, piers and simply supported span construction with beams and decking pre-cast or pre-fabricated and installed using cranes. In the Ambala to Jagadheri area access roads are required to facilitate construction of two important bridges over the Markhanda and Tagri rivers. These two structures alone will require large prefabricated pieces of bridge to be brought into site by road vehicles with erection by large cranes maybe capable of lifting up to 1000 tonnes.
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Procurement
0.29 The consultant recommends that a multi-disciplinary design contract be competitively tendered for (i) production of a functional specification for the Ludhiana to Khurja section of corridor (in conjunction with and approval of the DFCCIL), (ii) an engineering survey (including ground investigation works), (iii) construction of a CAD model, (iv) civil and structure preliminary design, (v) railway system preliminary design (including track), (vi) the obtaining of approvals and determination of construction setting-out points; all for hand-over to the Contract Package Manager (CPM) for inclusion in the tender documentation. It is further recommended that this preliminary design contractor should remain as part of the interdisciplinary assurance team responsible to the CPM for providing effective and robust detailed design prior to and assurance during construction.
0.30 The ongoing commitment of a multi-discipline design contractor will ensure that the maintenance regime to be implemented following commissioning will be able to be resourced and costed to a fully populated corridor asset database.
0.31 International best practice indicates that rail projects such as the DFC are best split into two principal packages: infrastructure (civil and structures including earthworks etc) and railway systems including track, signalling, telecommunication, electrification and small plant.
0.32 For the DFC between Khurja and Ludhiana, the consultant recommends that a number of infrastructure contractors build the earthworks, drainage and structures, finishing at top of formation, or blanket level, and one or two contractors provide the railway systems and carry out system testing and commissioning.
0.33 Full allowance must be made for preparatory (enabling) works for all the contract packages being considered. It is therefore recommended that all preliminary enabling works designs be undertaken and approved by IR prior to appointment of main package contractors.
0.34 A procurement plan on these lines is proposed which breaks the DFC project into 7 contract packages. In line with ADB Guidelines, given that the indicative contract package prices for the major construction elements of this corridor are out-turning in excess of $3million International competitive tendering should be applied throughout. It is reasonable that sub- packages and contracts for work suitable for local contractors be created, however to minimise programme risk it will be important to minimise the numbers of main contracts.
Contract management
0.35 The consultant recommends that a single Contract Programme Management CPM team led by a Project Director PD accountable to a DFCCIL Steering Group Board be appointed prior to construction tender invitation. The steering group board should have full delegated powers for approval and award of contracts and variations for the project to enable programme accountability (critical if the project is to achieve commissioning by 2017 as planned). The CPM should additionally have delegated responsibilities for appointment of design (detailed) and build sub-contracts as appropriate. A proposed management structure is shown overleaf.
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0.36 From a management viewpoint, the consultant recommends that the DFC Ludhiana to Khurja section be split into four manageable areas: Ludhiana A and Ludhiana B in tandem with Meerut A and Meerut B. Each of these sections would be under the jurisdiction of a section project director responsible to the overall CPM Project Director.
0.37 The consultant recommends that the construction programme management proposal and added project assurance through milestone nominated project disbursement drawdown be adopted to manage overall project risks.
Economic Analysis
0.38 The economic evaluation compares the costs and benefits with and without the project. The difference is estimated over the project period, providing the net benefits of doing the project and with discounting, allows estimation of the EIRR.
0.39 The with project scenario assumes the Ludhiana Khurja section of the Eastern DFC is built and operational by 2017, and that the other sections to Sonnagar are also completed before or by that date.
0.40 The without project scenario assumes that the existing corridor will be unable to carry the projected traffic, which will therefore be carried by road transport, either requiring highway expansion or leading to a significant degradation of the highway network with a commensurate reduction in traffic speed and the higher costs associated with that. It also assumes that the environmental impact and accident rates will be higher through increased road transport.
0.41 The Consultant has reworked and updated the previous RITES study economic appraisal in line with ADB Guidelines for the Economic Appraisal of Projects, and calculated an EIRR of 21.5%; this is greater than the 12% hurdle rate. The consultant has also revisited some of the
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key assumptions underlying the RITES analysis, particularly in relation to economic benefits claimed.
0.42 Sensitivity analyses carried out against the base scenario show that capital costs would have to increase by 85%, or operating costs by 55% or modal shift decreased by 30% in order to reduce the EIRR to the hurdle rate. It should be noted, however, that there are a number of uncertainties concerning the capital cost and economic benefits of the scheme from an operational point of view that underline the risks of achieving the desired EIRR. These uncertainties are difficult to quantify.
0.43 The economic evaluation shows that the project is economically feasible based on the assumptions made, probably against all but the most unfavourable combination of sensitivity test ranges.
Financial Analysis
0.44 The project capital costs, earnings, and operation and maintenance costs have been presented in the form of a cash-flow statement and the financial internal rate of return FIRR calculated as 20.73%, greater than the benchmark 12%.
0.45 Sensitivity analyses to measure the impact of variation of certain crucial factors (e.g. capital cost of the project, benefits of the project, etc.) show that when costs are increased by 30% and earnings decreased by 30%, the project retains its financial viability with a FIRR of 14.90%.
0.46 The indicative Track Access Charge model developed during the study provides a healthy FIRR of 21.16%, when the NET earning sharing ratio between IR and the DFCCIL is 30:70, respectively. The DFCCIL would be comfortable in order to service the debt on the assumption that this ratio is achieved. However, ultimately the revenue sharing decision would be taken by the client and service provider, i.e. DFCCIL.
Financial Management
0.47 The DFCCIL is a Special Purpose Vehicle set up in 2006 under the administrative control of Ministry of Railways to undertake the planning, mobilization of financial resources and construction, maintenance and operation of the DFC.
0.48 The DFCCIL has been delegated adequate financial and executive powers for efficient operation of the Company. The DFCCIL plans to put in place efficient practises for project planning, appraisal, transparent bidding processes, effective contract management and various international financing institutions guidelines for procurement. These procedures have been reviewed and it is concluded that with the mechanisms outlined above put in place, transparency and good corporate governance will form an integral part of the DFCCIL management and its operations.
Conclusion
0.49 The Consultant has concluded that the DFC section under consideration is both economically feasible and financially viable using ADB Guidelines and based on the favourable assumptions made.
0.50 The safety, construction risks and operational efficiency of the preferred alternative alignment can be improved provided the recommendations made are adopted.
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1. Introduction
Award
1.1 Scott Wilson (the Consultant) was awarded a five consecutive month contract commencing 20 May 2009 for the provision of consultancy services for two major areas of study: (i) feasibility study of the dedicated freight corridor from Ludhiana to Khurja (430km) for ADB financing, including proper project documentation, and (ii) efficiency improvement study on the Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporation of India Ltd (DFCCIL). The notes of the award meeting negotiations of 30 April 2009 are incorporated in the letter of contract award dated 20 May 2009 that include the terms of reference (TOR) for this study. A copy of the award documentation including the TOR is attached as Appendix 21 in Volume 4 of this report.
1.2 This report comprises four volumes as follows:
• Volume 1 (this volume) contains the principal feasibility study text, the findings, analysis, recommendations and conclusions.
• Volume 2 contains the alignment Route Plans from Khurja to Ludhiana.
• Volume 3 contains the Khurja to Ludhiana Ten Kilometre Infrastructure Drawings.
• Volume 4 contains the study report appendices as described under:
o Appendix 1 – Project Contract Structure and Programme.
o Appendix 2 – DFCCIL Proposed Detour Alignment.
o Appendix 3 – Yard Plans.
o Appendix 4 – Alternative Alignment.
o Appendix 5 – Land Acquisition at simple ROB Sites.
o Appendix 6 – Graphical Train Plan.
o Appendix 7 – Analysis of Level Crossings.
o Appendix 8 – Geotechnical Information Review and Report.
o Appendix 9 – Material Resources.
o Appendix 10 – Bridges Schedule.
o Appendix 11 – Locations of Crossing Stations.
o Appendix 12 – Hapur Visual Impact Option.
o Appendix 13 – Alignment Avoiding Shyam Nagar near Hapur.
o Appendix 14 – Approval Process.
o Appendix 15 – Financial/Standard Cost Catalogue.
o Appendix 16 – Interim Workshop Presentation.
o Appendix 17 – Project Issues Log Register.
o Appendix 18 – Project Documentation.
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o Appendix 19 – Strategic Background to DFC.
o Appendix 20 – Coal Projections
o Appendix 21 - Contract Award and Terms of Reference.
Project Documentation
1.3 At contract award, two principal documents were handed over to the Consultant. The first was a report commissioned by the Ministry of Railways and undertaken by RITES Ltd known as the Preliminary Engineering cum Traffic Survey Report (PETS). The report initially excluded the section Khurja to Ludhiana and was re-issued to include this section. It is formed in two parts; Part 1 (Feasibility Study for both the Western and Eastern Freight Corridors) and Part 2 (Traffic Survey). The second report was the result of a cooperation agreement between the governments of Japan and India and is known as the JICA Study. This study also covered the entire Western and Eastern Corridors and made further additional specific comment with regard to freight traction, level crossings, signalling and alignment.
1.4 Since publication of both reports, the DFCCIL had commissioned more detailed preliminary survey drawings of a ‘Preferred Alternative Alignment’. A limited number of these emerging alignment drawings were available to the Consultant at the start of the study and further sections of alignment were added for review as soon as they had become available. The receipt of emerging alignment proposals was conducted in a collaborative manner between the Consultant and DFCCIL representatives with in many instances the Consultant engaging with the out-based DFCCIL project site personnel to obtain those sections felt critical to the review.
1.5 To meet the study programme it was necessary for the Consultant to agree with the DFCCIL an arbitrary ‘freeze-date’ for received information of the first week in August 2009. This date was sufficient to allow as much of the critical detour routes to be known and transcribed onto preliminary survey drawings for subsequent analysis. Other detail and key documentation was made available to the Consultant following interview and discussion with DFCCIL and MOR representatives and a full list of this documentation is included in the Volume 4 Appendix 18 section of this report.
1.6 The final sections of the complete Ludhiana to Khurja route plan were finalised by the Consultant in October 2009 and handed over to the independent consultants for further analysis on Environment, Socio-development and Resettlement issues.
Study Objective
1.7 Indian Railways has proposed the Ludhiana to Khurja section of their Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor for financing via an Asian Development Bank (ADB) loan facility. The Consultant was engaged to prepare the project for such possible funding by the ADB in accordance with its policies and guidelines.
1.8 The principal study objective for the Consultant has been the review, update, analysis and appropriate supplemental study of feasibility proposals for the construction of the Ludhiana to Khurja section of the Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor to determine its suitability for ADB financing. A core team of five international and six national experts constituted the Consultant who were engaged within a five consecutive month study period to undertake analysis of proposals in the subject areas of Infrastructure, Operations and Safety, Alignment, Engineering Design, Transport Economics and Finance.
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1.9 The full terms of reference (TOR) under each of the above subject areas is detailed in the appendices to this report. Activities driven by these TOR and required from the Consultant may be summarised as follows:
• To review, update and recommend improvements to the project proposal, applying appropriate design standards and construction methods. This to include a technical review of the preliminary design proposal with the evaluation of alternatives for the construction in order to substantiate the preferred alternative option.
• To review proposed designs and criteria used and examine construction methods proposed with the objective of minimising the environmental impact during construction and operation.
• To suggest construction methods to ensure land use is kept at minimum practical levels with measures to optimise construction time and minimise cost identified as well as proposing forms of construction to reduce potential levels of noise and vibration.
• To offer advice on contract structures and procurement mechanisms for the project.
• To consider options for packaging the works for procurement, recommending optimum packaging for contracts and developing the project procurement plan.
• To evaluate the economic and financial benefits of the project to establish whether the proposed project and any recommended amendments will meet ADB’s social and economic targets for investment.
• To review traffic demand studies and estimates for future traffic growth. The traffic demand review requiring an understanding of the operational constraints of the proposed rail system and its surrounding feeder routes. This review to provide cost and revenue data which will feed into the financial and economic analysis of the project proposal.
• To evaluate the operational and maintenance costs against revenue generation. To undertake similar analysis based on economic parameters and including the social and environmental benefits.
• To provide up to date cost estimates for the works and a standard cost catalogue for use in estimating the costs of the DFC.
• To carry out a review of the safety implications of the proposed railway with specific reference to level crossings and the potential risks associated with particular rail traffic.
• To provide terms of reference for the site supervision of the loan implementation.
• To recognise that the entire project analysis will be driven by the operations plan that will serve the estimated demand. The operations plan being driven by the level and type of infrastructure sub-system provision.
1.10 In carrying out this study the Consultant worked closely with officials of the Ministry of Railways (MOR) and the DFCCIL and with other related ministries, agencies and state governments; as well as specifically with individual consultants who had been engaged separately by the ADB for Environmental, Socio-development and Resettlement due diligence studies. Regular progress meetings were held between the Consultant and the independent ADB appointed consultants along with supplemental dialogue/meetings held between individual team members.
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Volume 1 - Report Contents
• This Chapter 1 introduces the feasibility study commission and sets the framework for the study in terms of programme, liaison with executing and implementation and other agencies, base-line documentation and other study material. It specifically details the contents for this Volume (Volume 1) and outlines the contents for each of the other three volumes that comprise this report.
• Chapter 2 examines the background and development of the DFC and the evolution of the feasibility proposals in both the RITES and JICA reports into the Preferred Alternative alignment for Ludhiana to Khurja.
• Chapter 3 presents a review of the traffic analysis by consideration of freight carried over the concession period and for different axle loadings.
• Chapter 4 discusses the operations and safety aspects of the DFC, the relationship between operations and the infrastructure, signalling in particular; the impact of level crossings on operations, the provision of a train plan, timetabled operations and operational safety.
• Chapter 5 evaluates and reviews the infrastructure proposals. This chapter is set out in five sections – Alignment, Civil engineering Structures and Bridges, Signalling, Telecommunications and Electrification. For ease of reference each of these sections has been given a common structure of Scope, Description, DFCCIL Commentary, Consultant Commentary and Consultant Recommendation.
• Chapter 6 discusses the relationship of this Ludhiana to Khurja section of corridor to the rest of the Eastern and Western Corridors with proposals and recommendations for an approach to Contract Structure and the phasing of contracts that in the Consultant’s opinion will reduce implementation risk.
• Chapter 7 presents a Procurement Plan based on ADB guidelines and makes recommendations concerning the type of Procurement to be implemented.
• Chapter 8 gives commentary and provides proposals for a Supervisory Contract Terms of Reference for ADB Loan Implementation.
• Chapter 9 reviews the current status of Quality Management within the DFCCIL and proposes further strengthening of such quality processes.
• Chapter 10 presents the Economic Analysis leading to a stated EIRR.
• Chapter 11 presents the Financial Analysis with a FIRR based on the revised cost catalogue returns.
• Chapter 12 summarises those conclusions reached in each of the study areas and sets out the Consultant recommendations for moving the study forward to the next stage.
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2. DFC: Background, Development and Preferred Alternative
Background
2.1 The proposals for construction of a Khurja to Ludhiana section of Indian Railways Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor form part of strategic decisions taken by the Government of India in connection with freight transportation nationally. These decisions followed consideration of a number of competing strategic options considered by the Ministry of Railways (Appendix 19) in conjunction with the body responsible for provision and delivery of rail services throughout the Indian sub-continent, Indian Railways (IR).
2.2 As a result of the evaluation of these nationally strategic options and the need to meet the challenges of growth in both the passenger and freight traffic, the MOR and IR have taken the decision to provide additional route kilometrage exclusively for freight traffic, thereby helping to relieve existing capacity constraints and helping the existing IR infrastructure to be more readily upgraded to meet with the growing passenger demand.
Figure 2.1: Route map of Proposed Dedicated Freight Corridors
2.3 In December 2007 the Government of India (GOI) issued its 11th Five-Year Plan indicating enhancement of the railway capacity by construction of Dedicated Freight Corridors. The paper also acknowledged that although railway traffic volume continued to increase year by
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year, its share in the transport of the country’s passenger and freight business was decreasing overall. Improvements to the road network and the growth in vehicle ownership is contributing much to this trend as also is the quickly emerging customer focussed road haulage business across the country. With IR traffic volume now approaching its available capacity, measures need to be taken by IR to enhance the customer oriented services it is able to offer and survive the competition with road transport.
2.4 This decision to adopt the Dedicated Freight Corridor strategy was taken just prior to commissioning of a more thorough evaluation process that included two studies in particular. The first was a study commissioned from RITES and was completed in 2007. The second, also completed in 2007, is known as the JICA Study. Both of these reports made recommendations concerning the technology that might be employed in any such project as well as the corridor alignment options. These reports together form the basis of options studied with regard to the Ludhiana to Khurja section of the Eastern Corridor and are analysed in more detail in later sections of this report.
Development
2.5 The Indian Railways quadrilateral linking the four metropolitan cities of Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Howrah/Kolkata, referred to as the Golden Quadrilateral, along with its two diagonals (Delhi to Chennai and Mumbai to Howrah/Kolkata) add up to a total route length of 10,100 km. These routes constitute the central nervous system of the Indian Railways 45,622 km broad gauge network. The routes carry annually more than 3000 million passengers and about 55% of the over 600 million tonnes of revenue earning freight traffic transported by IR. Most of the existing rail links of the Golden Quadrilateral network are operating at near full capacity. Connectivity of the major economic activities within this area to/from the major national ports is a particularly vital element in the rationale of the development of dedicated freight corridors (DFC).
Figure 2.2: Route map of the Western & Eastern corridors of the DFC
2.6 As a first step in this overall strategy, the Ministry of Railways has decided to develop and construct two Dedicated Freight Corridors legs of the Quadrilateral. The first spanning the
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Mumbai to Delhi (Western DFC) and the second, Delhi to Kolkata (Eastern DFC) legs of the golden quadrilateral. Covering a total initial length of approximately 2800km the two corridors are in their late planning stages and include this Ludhiana to Khurja northern extension of the Eastern Corridor. Both routes are shown in Figure 2.2 above.
2.7 Western Corridor: This is proposed as a double line Dedicated Freight Corridor from Jawaharlal Nehru Port in Navi Mumbai to Tughlakabad/Dadri in the NCR of Delhi, running along the Indian Railways’ JN Port, Vasai Road, Surat, Vadodara, Ahmedabad, Mahesana, Palanpur, Ajmer, Phulera, Ringus, Rewari, Dadri network over a route length of 1483 km.
2.8 Eastern Corridor: This is proposed as a Dedicated Freight Corridor with an initial route length of 1279 km and originally consisting of three sections of corridor. Two of the sections to the south of Khurja are proposed to be electrified double lines totalling 867km between Sonnagarr and Dadri, with an electrified single line third section (with options for future doubling) of approximately 400km between Khurja and Ludhiana (Dhandhari Kalan). During the course of this feasibility study, it has been announced that the Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor is to be extended by a fourth section to Dankuni in the Kolkata area, an additional route length section of approximately 520km, making a overall total corridor length approximately 1700km.
KHURJA
Figure 2.3: Route map of the Eastern corridor of the DFC
2.9 Both the Western and Eastern Corridors of Indian Railways dedicated freight routes are proposed as double line railways with the exception of this northern most section of the Eastern Corridor from Ludhiana to Khurja which is proposed as a single line railway. Connection between both corridors will be at Dadri. Dadri forms the terminating point of the overall Sonnagar to Dadri Eastern Corridor route whose alignment branches off at Khurja to the south of this section of the corridor under study.
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The Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporation of India Limited (DFCCIL)
2.10 With a view to ensuring rapid, focused and economical implementation of its Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) project, the Ministry of Railways (MOR) has set up a wholly owned Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) in the form of the DFCCIL, which is an independent corporate entity registered under the Companies Act, 1956. The Corporation has been endowed with full authority to take all necessary actions to implement the project in a fast and economical manner.
2.11 The objectives of setting up the DFCCIL and the functions and duties assigned to it in the form of its ‘area of authority’ have been briefly defined in the Company’s Memorandum & Articles of Association and include all activities related with the successful implementation of the DFC project and, thereafter, its operation and maintenance.
2.12 The detailed relationship, including the mutual rights and obligations of the parties concerned (including the Ministry of Railways, Indian Railways and the DFCCIL) is, however, to be set out in a Concession Agreement to be executed between the Ministry of Railways and the DFCCIL. Instead of being a wholly owned subsidiary of the Ministry of Railways, the DFCCIL is to constitute an independent company and a Concessionaire of the DFC Project.
RITES: Preliminary Engineering cum Traffic Survey (PETS) Report
2.13 The Ministry of Railways commissioned RITES in July 2005 to carry out a Preliminary Engineering cum Traffic Survey for a multi modal high axle load, Dedicated Freight Corridor, initially between Delhi – Howrah, restricted between Sonnagar – Ludhiana later. The study was carried out in two parts, Part -1; a Feasibility Study and Part 2, a Preliminary Engineering cum Traffic Study.
2.14 The Preliminary Engineering cum Traffic Study Report for both Western and Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridors was submitted by RITES in January 2006 for Sonnagar to Khurja with an approximate cost of the Khurja – Ludhiana section included on the basis of a pro-rata distance basis. The final report was submitted in January 2007.
2.15 The report recommended IR interconnectivity with the proposed Ludhiana to Khurja corridor section at 12 locations, and crossing stations with 1500m loop lengths provided at 50km intervals. Track centres were recommended to be at 6m, with allowance for the running of double stack container trains using well-type freight wagons within a maximum moveable dimension (MMD) of 6300 mm height and 4890 mm width.
MOR Response: RITES Report
2.16 The Ministry of Railways (MOR) in considering the report findings and recommendations decided that the corridor route from Ludhiana to Khurja should be a single line with substructure provision for a future double line, with no surface crossings and a centre to centre spacing of DFC track of 5.5m. Distance from adjoining IR network existing track was proposed to be 6.0m and no rolling stock maintenance facilities were to be planned. Track and OHE was proposed to be capable of running trains with Double Stack Containers and a conventional 25kV electric traction system was nominated. Traction substations were to be spaced at 30km intervals and inter station distances were to be 10km. The number of crossing stations was set at 50. Maximum corridor train speed was set at 100kph on the proposed corridor. Maximum moving dimensions MMD were to be 6.6m vertical to permit movement of double stack containers with Schedule of Dimension (SOD) being 7.1m in vertical direction using double WAG 7 locomotives for moving 5800 tonne capacity trains.
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JICA: Feasibility study Report of Japan International Cooperation Agency
2.17 As part of a technical cooperation agreement between the governments of India and Japan, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) carried out feasibility studies of the proposed dedicated multimodal high axle load freight corridors on Mumbai – Delhi and Delhi – Howrah routes including base line surveys and submitted their report in Oct. 2007. They also included review of the RITES report.
2.18 The JICA Report recommended that track and overhead electric traction equipment should be suitable for running trains with Double Stack Containers on well type wagons and 5800 tonne train loads. Axle loading was proposed to be 25 tonne. A 50kV (2x25 kV) electric traction system was proposed. Traction substation spacing was proposed at 50 km each with 2No. 65 MVA transformers and intermediate 8MVA auto-transformers. The maximum speed on the corridor was proposed to be 90kph and a MMD (Vertical) of 6.83 m and SOD (Vertical) 7.76 m. Eight-axle, 12000 HP locomotives were proposed for hauling 5800T trains and six-axle 9000 HP locomotives were proposed for hauling 4500 T container trains. The present axle load was suggested to be 25 T with future axle load provision of 30 T. Land procurement was proposed to extend for 1500 m CSR with 750 m CSR provided initially.
MOR Response: JICA Report
2.19 Ministry of Railways (MOR) reviewed the parameters / issues again and advised in a letter (reference no. 2006/Infra/6/3) dated 23 June 2009 that track structures suitable for 32.5 T axle load should be specified with 60 kg/m rails and 1 in 12 turnouts. Loop lengths were to be 750m with provision for extension to 1500 m in the future. Maximum Moving Dimension (MMD) Vertical height was proposed to be 5.1m in for the Eastern DFC. A 2x25 kV electric traction system was proposed for adoption with automatic signalling utilising 2km spacing of signals. Station interlocking to have provision for centralised traffic control (CTC) operation in future with an independent optical fibre cable (OFC) for provision of DFC telecommunication.
Ludhiana to Khurja Preferred Alternative
2.20 The DFCCIL advised the Consultant that the alignment was to be in general parallel to the existing tracks in accordance with drawings made available to the consultant over the first 10 weeks of study. Yard modification sketch drawings were also provided along with revised cost estimates.
2.21 In a letter (reference no HQ / EL / EC) from the DFCCIL dated 18 September 2008 it is proposed that a 2 x 25 kV electric traction system should be adopted, with traction sub-station (TSS) spacing of 60km, major OHE maintenance depots at 60km interval and minor depots at 30km interval. The DFCCIL has also confirmed that only single stack containers should run on the Ludhiana to Khurja section of corridor with a MMD of 5.1m. Minimum mast implantation clearances of 3.0m with track centres at 6.0m are to be adopted.
2.22 A report commissioned by the DFCCIL on Operation and Maintenance of Infrastructure was additionally made available that recommended the setting up of a Regional Office to control all operations with integrated maintenance Depots and Sub-Depots for all infrastructure technical disciplines including Track Machine maintenance depots and Civil Engineering maintenance depots. Junction stations are proposed to house Area Managers and Traffic Inspectors with two points-men and two Station Masters per shift. Crossing stations are proposed to have one points-man and one Station Master per shift.
2.23 For the Khurja to Ludhiana section the alignment proposed is for a railway closely parallel to the existing IR network with wide detours at major towns and built-up areas principally to avoid land take and resettlement issues. The DFCCIL proposals are based on consideration of both
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RITES and JICA reports and have concluded that this preferred alternative alignment running principally on land adjacent to the IR network and importantly in IR ownership is to be adopted with minimal detours at built-up areas with substantial reductions in scope from that proposed in both RITES and JICA reports, with any residual detours brought within or very much closer to IR network and their land ownership footprint (ROW).
2.24 The Consultant has analysed this alignment proposal over the following chapters and concludes that the approach taken by the DFCCIL to construction of this corridor section is appropriate for the predicted traffic flows and line speeds envisaged and therefore recommends its adoption as the best value option.
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3. Traffic Analysis
Traffic Growth
3.1 Indian Railways (IR) has been growing rapidly in the past 18 to 19 years in comparison to its growth measured from a base year of 1951. The route kilometrage from 1951 to 2006 had increased from 53596km in 1951 to 62367km in 1991 and to 63332km in 2005. This represents an increase in kilometrage of 16.36% in 1990-91 and 18.16% up to 2005-06. It is significant that although from 1990-91 to 2005-06 the increase in route kilometrage has been only 965km representing an increase of 1.55%, the corresponding freight traffic carried has witnessed an increase from 341.4 million tonne in 1991 to 682.4 million tonne in 2005-06 an increase in volume that has more than doubled in this 15 years. Similarly, passenger traffic has grown from 66.5 billion passenger km in 1950-51 to 295.64 billion passenger km in 1990- 91 and 615.63 billion passenger km in 2005-06 representing a growth of 4.45 times and 9.26 times respectively. The passenger traffic has also doubled during the period 1990-91 to 2005- 06. Current trends of both freight and passenger traffic are maintaining the same growth profile.
Traffic Analyses - Eastern Corridor, Ludhiana to Khurja
Requirement
3.2 The task of the Consultant has been to review, update and where necessary supplement new studies and analyses to estimate overall freight and passenger demand and capacity in the study corridors/facilities i.e. rationale of the dedicated single line for the Ludhiana Khurja section.
Overview of Eastern DFC Traffic
3.3 Traffic on the Eastern corridor is relatively uncomplicated being dominated by coal but with a few other bulks including iron ore on the Kolkata to Delhi/Ludhiana sections and with food grains and other commodities travelling towards Delhi/Kolkata.
3.4 Container traffic is estimated to be a relatively minor part of the projected overall traffic flows (see Table 3.1) although our comment about the need for further review due in part to the recent review of the Sonnagar-Kolkata section of the DFC and Kolkata port development by GOI/States of Bihar and West Bengal respectively has been covered by the DFCCIL Business Plan draft report of August 2009.
3.5 Due to the dominance of coal traffic, all traffic forecasts are largely based on power generation needs and power stations planned. Traffic scenarios however, have included variations in GDP growth and varying the share of rail in overall traffic.
3.6 However, while in the western section, varying the assumptions of such scenarios makes a considerable difference in traffic growth, in the eastern corridor more pessimistic GDP assumptions make considerably less difference to the base case. This is in part due to the need to make up for already evident power shortages, such that reducing GDP makes little difference because of the need to catch up with the infrastructure backlog. GDP variations have greater impact on general/container traffic which is projected to be limited in volume within the Eastern corridor.
3.7 Nevertheless, assessments of power generation and sources have their own difficulties to forecast. Appendix 1 provides the Consultant assessment of the projection of coal traffic within the Business Plan.
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3.8 The following summary forecast (Table 4.2) derived from the DFCCIL Business Plan gives a good indication of the bulk and general cargo to be transported along the DFC.
FY Year 2007 2011 2021 2031 No. of M No. of M No. of M No. of M Type Trains* Tonnes Trains* Tonnes Trains* Tonnes Trains* Tonnes CAGR** Container 856 0.9 1,199 1.3 2,810 3.0 5,805 6.3 8.3% Coal 11,497 43.3 18,279 68.9 27,571 103.9 33,011 124.5 4.5% Other *** 7,544 20.0 9,241 24.6 16,362 44.1 28,423 77.0 5.8% Empties 11,771 - 15,284 - 25,603 - 38,222 - 5.0% Total 31,668 64.2 44,003 94.8 72,346 151.0 105,461 207.8 5.0%
* Per Year **CAGR= Compound Average Growth Rate (% per year between 2007 and 2031) ** Mainly other bulk traffic e.g. fertilizer, cement, salt, food grains, Steel, POL Source: Business Plan (and Consultants based on 22.9t axle load wagon capacity) NB: Projected trains not only Ludhiana-Khurja section but all sections (Sectional Traffic shown in Table 4.3)
Table 3.1 Summary of Traffic Projections-All Eastern Corridor, DFC Review of Previous Studies
3.9 Within this study, the Consultant reviewed earlier reports including the PETS-I and PETS-II Reports by RITES, Final Project Feasibility Report by JICA and the Indian Railways Marketing Study carried out by IIM, Kolkata, and most recently the DFCCIL Business Plan (BP). These studies provide the major source information for the Consultant, together with more recent information prepared by DFCCIL with analysis derived by the Consultant.
RITES-I: Feasibility Study 2006
3.10 This was the first part of the RITES report and studied the Sonnagar Khurja section of the Eastern DFC. The report was not available for utilisation by the Consultant during this study period.
RITES-II: PETS-Jan 2007
3.11 This study expanded upon RITES I and added the section Khurja-Ludhiana to Sonnagar Khurja and was priced on a pro rata basis. The total corridor project cost was estimated at Rs 11,589 Crore (about $2.3 billion). The study concluded that the Sonnagar to Ludhiana DFC was economically and financially viable based on a single track alignment with no surface crossings.
3.12 A number of traffic scenarios were developed including lower GDP growth and various shares of rail and road transport. It is not clear which scenario was chosen as the most likely/most robust for the evaluation.
3.13 Traffic is dominated by bulk (coal and fertilizer), steel, others (limited container traffic) and traffic was forecast by section and to 2022.
3.14 The Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) was estimated at 35% (direct benefits) and at 42% (Direct plus social benefits).
3.15 Economic Benefits include incremental revenue, savings in operating expenses, inventory cost saving, road improvement costs avoided, social and environmental benefits, employment, benefits to existing passenger traffic.
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3.16 The project FIRR was estimated at about 20% but the report seems to mix economic, financial and SPV viability but overall would appear to be satisfactorily prepared.
JICA-Oct 2007 - Task 2 Feasibility Study of the DFC Project
3.17 This study overlapped with the RITES report and was finalised in late 2007. It examined both the Western and Eastern sections of the freight corridor i.e. Mumbai to Dadri and Sonnagar to Ludhiana (Sanehwal) respectively.
3.18 The estimated project Cost of the Eastern section was Rs 21,244 Crores (approx $4.3 billion).
3.19 JICA commented that the RITES traffic forecasts were basically satisfactory, but stated (without explanation) that traffic was not in a suitable form for economic and financial analyses. JICA confirmed that most of relevant rail lines in the corridors will become saturated in the near future but separated each corridor into sections for implementation. Ludhiana-Khurja (designated 1.b) had a slightly lower priority based on ROBs/social/environmental issues but was generally still well supported.
3.20 Benefits of the project included time savings, vehicle operating cost (VOC) saving, environmental savings (10 items in total) and they estimated the EIRR of the overall Eastern corridor at 15%. (The FIRR of the overall project was estimated at 16%). The doubling in project cost presumably contributed to the decrease in both EIRR and FIRR as compared to RITES.
JICA-Oct 2007 Task 0 and 1 Baseline and Justification of DFC
3.21 For information, it should be noted that Task 0 of JICA was to set up the baseline-collection of wide-ranging transport data mainly and Task 1 was to provide the justification for a New Freight Corridor.
3.22 Therefore the reports 0 and 1 provide a compendium of wide data collection, analyses of demand and capacity with strategic alternatives.
3.23 There was no mention of catchment areas but the Eastern corridor was divided into 4 sections including Ludhiana - Khurja based on state boundaries.
DFCCIL Business Plan Draft Traffic Report 1, June 2009
3.24 In the Consultant review of the Business Plan Traffic Report, it is noted that in making the traffic projections and market analysis, the DFCCIL were not required to carry out any primary surveys, but only review the existing data and feasibility reports of Indian railways, including the feasibility study reports on the DFC Project, reports of other industry and infrastructure related Ministries, and reports of well-known business and industry associations and draw conclusions after necessary due diligence. The DFCCIL was, however, required to justify and ‘own’ the traffic projections for a thirty year period.
3.25 The draft Traffic Report made a detailed assessment of traffic likely to be carried on the DFC – separately for the eastern and western corridors - and examined the adequacy of capacity created in relation to the projected traffic and served as an input for the subsequent overall Business Plan.
3.26 The Traffic Report, base data, is primarily based on actual train running data obtained from the Freight Operations Information System (FOIS) of the Indian Railways for the whole of 2007-08, separately on all routes and links relevant to the eastern and western corridors of the DFC. In
1 Issued as a separate report and revised in the preliminary Business Plan itself issued in August 2009. Based on our analysis which we included in our Interim Report, further relatively minor revisions were made in September 2009 and on which we base this DFR report.
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addition, all relevant reports/documents have been systematically analyzed before making projections of traffic up to the horizon year 2036-37. There was also some consideration of the emerging trends of commodity-wise and route-wise traffic flows.
3.27 The report presents a commodity-wise analysis in terms of number of trains and tonnes carried, separately on each corridor. Finally, it presents a commodity-wise and section-wise tabulation of total O&D flows, separately for each corridor.
3.28 Ascertaining traffic flows between primary production and consumption centres and their proximity to the DFC route is the first significant step to ascertain the amount of traffic likely to be available for movement on the DFC corridors. Their movement pattern will, in turn, determine their allocation to the DFC during the various stages of traffic forecasting process.
3.29 On the Eastern Corridor, coal for the existing and anticipated thermal power plants located in the north comprises the principal commodity. Apart from coal, finished steel, cement, food grains, fertilizers, salt, Petroleum Products (POL), general goods and empties constitute other prominent traffic flows.
3.30 In respect of coal traffic, no regression analysis was carried out. Instead, projections were made on the basis of actual demand by thermal power plants, cement industry and public utilities.
3.31 To project traffic of commodities like containers, POL, steel, cement and vehicles, the future values of GDP were applied to estimated regression equations. This required the future values of GDP growth rates of India.
3.32 These were based on the two different sources below:
• The latest survey conducted by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has predicted that for the next 10 years, GDP of India is expected to grow at 7.5%. Besides, the survey also cuts the growth forecast for 2008-09 and 2009/10 to 6.6% for 2008-09 and 5.7%, respectively. The consultant has adopted the GDP values up to year 2020 from this source.
• The Economic research paper, “India’s Rising Growth Potential”, paper no. 152 of Goldman Sachs International Economic Research Team in 2007. The paper envisages India’s potential average GDP growth rate between 2006 and 2050 to be 6.9%.
3.33 The Business Plan has used the GDP values from the above two sources and estimated the future commodity growth rates.
3.34 Freight traffic moving over the DFC will be the sum of the outputs generated from normal projections, diversion of traffic from other modes to rail, transport demand created by the aforesaid developments and availability of new steams of traffic in the form of automobiles and domestic container traffic. The estimated traffic output, in the form of commodity-wise, O&D matrices and number of trains was expressed in the form of sectional loadings, commodity share distribution analysis, and tonnage-wise traffic calculations.
DFCCIL Draft Business Plan, August 2009
3.35 Several months after the Business Plan Traffic Report was issued, the draft Business Plan itself was issued which basically included the Traffic Report data but with some revisions, which are discussed further below.
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Year (FY) 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 DFC Section In million tonnes/Year Khurja - Kalanaur 8.0 17.7 34.0 42.8 46.1 53.1 59.0 Kalanaur - Sirhind 5.2 8.2 17.2 23.6 26.0 32.0 37.0 Sirhind - Dhandhari Kalan 1.2 1.7 9.2 12.8 13.7 17.7 20.2 Source: DFCCIL Business Plan June 2009
Table 3.2 Total Freight Tonnage Carried per year in Both Directions on the Ludhiana-Khurja Sections
Comments on the Existing Traffic Projections
3.36 In general, the RITES, JICA and Business Plan reports are thorough and consistent for the Eastern corridor. However, the JICA report is not always easy to follow as very limited base year data is given consistent with the forecasts i.e. forecast tables start at 2018, not 2005/6. Also discussing East and West corridors together is also slightly confusing as these two corridors have very different traffic characteristics.
3.37 There is therefore a lack of clarity in some of the JICA/RITES traffic data which is about 3 years old and information may be supplemented by the DFCCIL Draft Business Plan is now available.
3.38 The final draft Traffic Report is now available and has been further reviewed related to the Eastern DFC. The Business Plan projections also include traffic estimates for the additional section of the DFC between Dankuni and Sonnagar mentioned above.
3.39 The new Business Plan forecasts have updated the key base year traffic data as well as updating the sources of the traffic projections including power demand and power station development, especially into the medium term and beyond i.e. after the next 10 year plans. This provides somewhat more confidence than the earlier traffic projections as there have been some reductions in the projected volumes of bulk traffics and container volumes, partly due to the recession.
3.40 Changes in GDP do not have such a significant impact on traffic projections unlike the Western corridor which has much more general and container traffic. Nevertheless, the recent economic crisis has been considered as to its likely impact on traffic demand, perhaps leading them to assume the lower rather than the higher end of assumptions where ranges of possibilities were considered.
3.41 Traffic data contained in RITES, JICA and the Business Plan are broadly consistent and the consultant considers these as reasonably accurate. The development of the whole rail corridor from Ludhiana to Kolkata may well also support achieving the potential for container traffic from its current (projected) low base and some account has been taken of this potential traffic in the Business Plan.
3.42 The Consultant is somewhat sceptical of the analysis that supports the projection of ‘additional’ traffic i.e. ‘piggyback’ RoRo trucks carried on flat cars, even though we acknowledge the potential of non bulk traffic likely exists. Effective, proactive management of a well developed DFC would possibly allow new traffic to be generated in future although this also depends in part on the freedom to operate.
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Source RITES (2007) JICA (2007) BP (2009) BP (2009)
25 t Axle 25 t Axle 22.9 t Axle 25 t Axle Total Trains per Day-Both Directions (Khurja Kalanaur Section Only) Forecast Years
2007 12 12.
27 2011/13 25 25
2016/18 47 61 47 39
2021/23 54 63 58 48
2026/28 66 64 53
2031/33 67 72 60
2036/37 78 66
Source: RITES, JICA and DFCCIL Reports Table 3.3 Comparison of Trains per Day-Total in Both Directions for Khurja Kalanaur
3.43 One issue that impacts train movements is the standard weight of axle loadings. RITES and JICA assumed 25.0 tonne axle loadings but the Business Plan considered that it would be impossible to implement 25 tonne axle loadings before 2016 although it also considered the traffic implications of higher axle loadings. According to the Business Plan, the change from 22.9 to 25 tonnes makes a considerable difference to train movements i.e. each train carries a higher volume so requiring fewer train movements. The Business Plan also considered axle loadings up to 32 tonnes.
3.44 The Business plan shows the impact on train volumes by wagon/commodity type as follows.
Scenario Existing Rail Wagons DFC Wagons Axle Loading 22.9 tonnes 25 tonnes
Conversion Load (TEU Load (TEU Load Wagon No. of Load per No. of Factor* Commodity or tonnes) or tonnes) per Type wagons Train wagons per wagon per wagon Train
BLC Well 45 2 90 32 4 128 70% Container Wagons BLC Flat 45 2 90 45 4 180 50% Container Wagons Coal BOXN 58 65 3770 58 82 4756 79% Food 41 62 2542 58 80 4640 55% grains BCN Fertilisers BCN 41 62 2542 58 80 4640 55% Cement BCN 41 62 2542 58 80 4640 55% Salt BCN 41 62 2542 58 80 4640 55% Steel BRN / 48 62 2976 Same as before 100% BOXN POL BTPN 45 48 2160 47 77 3619 60% * Number of trains with 22.9 t axle reduced by this factor if axle loading increases to 25 t Table 3.4 Reduction in Train Movements with Change to 25 tonne Axle Load
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3.45 If transport of food grains is taken as an example from the above table, the introduction of 25 tonne axle wagons would optimally require only 55% of the movements with 22.9 tonne axle loading. This makes a considerable difference in the projection of train movements as shown below. Obviously the volume of commodities does not directly change with their introduction.
3.46 Table 3.5 shows a more detailed analysis of train traffic movements projected by section and according to axle loading assumptions.
Assumption 1: Axle Load 22.9 tonnes* Year 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 Khurja – Kalanaur 12 25 47 58 64 72 78 Khurja-Kalanaur-One Way** 6 13 25 31 34 39 44 Kalanaur – Sirhind 8 12 23 32 36 43 51 Sirhind - Dhandhari Kalan 2 3 11 15 17 21 26
Assumption 2: Axle Load 25.0 tonnes Year 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 Kurja – Kalanaur 12 25 39 48 53 60 66 Khurja-Kalanaur-One Way** 6 13 20 25 28 33 37 Kalanaur – Sirhind 8 12 20 27 30 37 44 Sirhind - Dhandhari Kalan 2 3 9 13 14 18 22 Source: IL&FS Business Plan Consultants 31 August 2009, for DFCCIL *Nominal/Maximum ** Highest sector one way traffic (up) Note: For traffic projections for financial analysis in Business Plan and the consultant’s economic evaluation, assumption 1 has been used up to 2016/17 and assumption 2 from 2021/22. Table 3.5 Axle Loadings and Two Way Traffic Forecasts, 2007-2037, DFCCIL Business Plan
Current Eastern Corridor Capacity Considerations
3.47 The Business Plan considered that all traffic would be incremental after 2016/17 i.e. capacity would be reached on the existing lines in the Eastern Corridor by that date even though capacity limitations are evident from current data.
3.48 In consideration of estimating ‘incremental rail traffic’ there is the need to estimate demand and capacity on the existing Eastern DFC corridor. Data received from DFCCIL is shown in the following table.
Capacity With Estimated 2005 Freight Total SECTION Maintenance % Traffic Trains Trains Block Utilization (JICA) 1 Khurja -Hapur 12 2 7 58% 2 Hapur-Meerut 12 2 7 58% 3 Meerut- Tapri 23 7 31 135% 4 Tapri Saharanapur 50 5 27 54% 5 Saharanapur-Jagadhari* 54 14 48 89% 44 6 Jagadhari-Ambala Cantt 54 12 46 85% 44
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Capacity With Estimated 2005 Freight Total SECTION Maintenance % Traffic Trains Trains Block Utilization (JICA) 7 Ambala Cantt-Rajpura 74 29 87 118% 67 8 Rajpura-Sirhind 74 23 69 93% 51 9 Sirhind-Sanehwal/Ludhiana 54 12 52 96% 65 Source: DFCCIL, August 2009; JICA 2007 *Close to Kalanaur for reference to Business Plan and traffic projections
Table 3.6 Rail Capacity and Utilization of the Eastern Corridor (Ludhiana-Khurja), 2007/08
3.49 Traffic by section varies according to varying volumes of passenger and freight trains and varies according to where trains join/leave the corridor. For example, passenger and freight trains from Delhi northward join the route at Meerut, hence the increase on that section shown in the table. Khurja-Hapur-Meerut is single line, with north southbound traffic also utilizing alternate sections.
3.50 The RITES report initially developed demand by commodity for base (2005/06) and reference years (2010/11), irrespective of infrastructure. RITES then allocated that demand to the DFC and by inference traffic remained on the existing corridor line.
3.51 It was assumed that traffic on the DFC (assumed to operate from 2011/12-one year on from 2010/11) would come from the existing traffic as well as some from additional traffic generated between base year and forecast years. The new incremental traffic would come from over and above the 2011 traffic and a shift from road to rail according to type of commodity.
3.52 Based on the consultant’s analysis, it was found difficult to extract their figures from the total demand to the demand on the DFC. However, the consistent demand being carried on the existing line was estimated at 39 million tonnes.
3.53 This largely accords with data from JICA related to their base year traffic although exact consistency on each of the 9 sections above, between 2006/7 and 2007/8 ‘actual’ is unlikely, partly because in some cases the sections vary slightly.
Conclusions
3.54 The Consultant has concluded that for most sections of the current Ludhiana Khurja corridor capacity is currently at or near effective capacity. Certainly by 2017 when the DFC opens, the existing corridor will be over capacity and that incremental traffic can be regarded as all traffic that uses the new line from 2017 onward.
3.55 The Consultant has in addition reviewed the traffic projections and in its summary findings it is noted that:
• Three sets of traffic projections for the Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor have been made within the period 2006/7-2009.
• RITES base year was 2005 with end year 2021; JICA projections were confusing and did not show a base year with their first forecast year 2018 and end year 2033 (for our Project sections); BP base is 2007 with end 2036/7. JICA intermediate years were therefore 2 years different from RITES and BP.
• The consultant has compared the traffic projections from these various sources and sections of Ludhiana Khurja and, for simplicity, the example we have used is the Khurja Kalanaur section of Ludhiana-Khurja which has the heaviest traffic of the three sections used for traffic projections. Table 3.3 showed the data available from the 3 sources.
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• All studies agree basic traffic (Up) will be coal for power stations with coal sources in the South East section of the corridor and receiving stations in and towards the North East of the corridor. There are projected to be substantial amounts of empty (Down) traffic but projected traffic imbalances between Up and Down traffic suggest that a proportion of full coal wagons will not return empty but be diverted to carry Down traffic not on the DFC but on other IR lines. For the Eastern Corridor the BP has projected that there will be additional Up and Down traffic in the form of RoRo (flat cars with piggyback trucks), although that has yet to be substantiated. However, in the consultant’s opinion, the marketing potential seems good for down products if the DFCCIL is allowed to manage their system with some independence from IR.
• The introduction of 25 tonne axle wagons was assumed for the DFC traffic by 2021 latest, which is reflected in the traffic projections.
• The Business Plan data is obviously more complete and is largely consistent with others, especially with RITES (in early years) and JICA (in later years).
• The Consultant has also discussed the issues of axle loading and the up/down train movement imbalance with DFCCIL. There is no definitive decision on axle loading although they agree that by 2021 25 tonne axle loadings can be assumed in our analysis. On traffic imbalance, both assure us that the imbalance is realistic especially when viewed from the need to depend on IR operations and the IR freight tariff system. The Business Plan does indicate the implications of moving to 25 and 32 tonne axle weights and it would seem to us that between 2016 and 2012 25 tonne axle loading would be universal and even that some 32 tonne axle loading wagons might be in use.
3.56 Table 3.7 is compiled by extraction from the DFCCIL Business Plan and is extended to show current estimates of traffic by section and commodity.
Future Traffic Variations - Risks, Opportunities and Sensitivities
3.57 The task under traffic analysis has focussed on reviewing the various reports prepared on the proposed DFC. These have included RITES and JICA (both 2007) and the Business Plan for DFCCIL drafted by consultants in August 2009. The Consultant was issued with the spreadsheet data that is in the Final Traffic Report and which has been presented in this report.
3.58 As mentioned above the traffic projections within these three major source reports are largely consistent. The Business Plan has included consideration of the current global financial crisis and is therefore marginally more pessimistic on GDP related traffic. It is also somewhat less optimistic about coal as a fuel source in the longer term but having only marginal impacts on DCF demand. The proposed additional RoRo traffic, assumed under the Business Plan, is possibly speculative although the consultant considers it a potential source of business and which is in any case projected as limited in volume. With good market research/marketing and management independence, non bulk traffic (including RoRo) could well be developed by DFCCIL and carried at higher freight rates than bulk traffic, either in conjunction with the transport of bulk commodities (capacity allowing) or to make up any shortfall.
3.59 However, there are risks and these relate to:
• Whether power generation stations will be built reasonably on time or major delays will delay coal demand.
• Whether coal will remain the predominant fuel source.
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• Whether the DFC can be built and operated to attract traffic reasonably in line with the projections.
• Whether Indian Railways allows traffic to be reallocated from overcapacity lines to the DFC in sufficient quantities for the projections to remain largely accurate.
• Whether other non-bulk traffic will eventuate.
3.60 Most of these risks are consistent with the normal risks of forecasting long periods into the future and none are, in our opinion, strong enough to suggest that the traffic projections are neither robust nor acceptable. Monitoring needs to continue on assessing demand and management and operational planning for the project.
3.61 The Business Plan traffic projections (see Table 3.7) are therefore regarded as a good basis for the planning and evaluation of the project bearing in mind the identified risks. Coal projections under the DFCCIL Business Plan are given in Volume 4 of this report (Appendix 20).
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4. Operations and Safety
Operations
Introduction
4.1 The section between Khurja and Ludhiana is at the northernmost end of the Eastern Corridor of the DFC. Traffic to destinations in Northern India and originating in the eastern region gets split into two sections at Khurja; firstly, toward Dadri/Delhi and secondly, towards Saharanpur/Ludhiana.
4.2 The route passes through three divisions of Northern Railway (Zone) viz. Khurja - Meerut (93 km) under Moradabad division; Meerut - Saharanpur (113 km.) under Delhi division; and Saharanpur - Sanehwal (180 km.) under Ambala division.
4.3 A single track railway between Khurja and Ludhiana had been proposed by the DFCCIL based on previous studies by RITES and JICA. The Consultant has had the benefit of the recently completed Preliminary Draft Business Plan produced for DFCCIL by IL&FS / Halcrow / RITES / Blake Dawson in August 2009. During the Consultants period of review future freight traffic projections have been agreed as part of the Preliminary Draft Business Plan produced for DFCCIL and finalised as the basis of the Business Plan.
4.4 The assumptions made in the Preliminary Draft Business Plan are based on Traffic Forecasts between 2007 and 2037 and numbers of trains have been determined on the basis of a standard train length of 686 metres (equivalent to containment within a 750m loop track) with an axle load of 25 tonnes. There are aspirations to increase train length and axle weight to 1500 metres and 32.5 tonnes respectively.
S. Section 2011-12 2016-17 2021-22 No. Trains each Trains each Trains each way per day way per day way per day
1 Khurja-Meerut- Kalanaur 15 19 33
2 Kalanaur-Sirhind 4 10 22
3 Sirhind- Sanehwal 1 5 11
Table 4.1: Forecast Traffic between Khurja & Ludhiana (Source ILFS Business Plan 31 Aug 2009)
4.5 Based on previous traffic projections, proposals had been made by DFCCIL for an Absolute Block signalling system with crossing stations located at 10km intervals between Khurja to Sanehwal. There was an assumed block operation time and start stop time of 5 minutes and daily maintenance block of 4 hours. The section being approximately 400km, a total of 39 crossing stations, including junction stations connected to the IR network, were proposed.
4.6 Based on the Business requirements of the corridor the consultant has constructed a Train Plan that has been evolved to accommodate 35/36 Trains Each Way Per Day (TEWPD). This plan meets the requirement for a daily maintenance block of 4 hours and for the purposes of train planning this has been assumed to be from 2300 – 0300 each day. Without
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comprehensive examination of the traffic patterns it may be that this could be allocated a different time slot within the 24 hour period.
4.7 This corridor is proposed by DFCCIL to be controlled from a single Operations Control office in the Delhi region.
Operations review and analysis
4.8 Throughout the review period the consultant has updated, analysed and formed conclusions and recommendations by consideration of:
• Appropriate national and international operational standards and practices, where these are defined.
• National standards being those which are defined by the Government of India (Ministry of Railways) Research Design and Standards Organisation (RDSO).
• International Standards, which have been used as practice comparators have been taken from a broad base including Asia/Pacific, the Americas, and Western Europe.
• The appropriateness of proposals in terms of the freight corridor’s future operability and its ability to deliver in accordance with the requirements of the Business Plan.
4.9 Information has been drawn principally from those consultancy studies undertaken under the auspices of the DFCCIL team and the executing agency, Ministry of Railways (MOR). This initial information has been supplemented by further information handed over by DFCCIL representatives and site survey from Ludhiana to Khurja by inspection train on 24/25 July 2009.
4.10 During the Inspection the consultant was able to appreciate at first hand the potential constraints and opportunities of the proposals and the value of the Inspection should not be under-appreciated. It is appropriate that thanks be recorded in this report for the facilitation and assistance in the conduct of the Inspection given by representatives of the MOR, Northern Railway Zone, Divisions and DFCCIL representatives.
4.11 The review stage comprised the following activities:
• Disaggregation of existing study material, primarily the extant RITES and JICA reports.
• Analysis, review, update of information and discussion with DFCCIL and MOR.
• Supplemental studies (including examination of international best practice, supplemented by the expertise of the team members in this specialist area).
4.12 Following the review stage, the Operations/Safety aspects of the study were then focussed on two specific issues which were heavily promoted and particularly emphasised by both MOR and DFCCIL representatives. These were considered by both parties and the consultant as being the key issues:
(i) Level Crossings, and
(ii) the Train Plan.
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Level Crossings
Introduction
4.13 Level crossing accidents tend to have casualties which are disproportionate with their number and frequency within the overall safety picture. Where accidents involving collisions between two or more motor vehicles will usually generate limited casualties, collisions between road vehicles and trains at level crossings can, and often do, generate multiple casualties of both rail and road users, particularly when such collisions result in train derailments. Therefore, too much is at stake to allow level crossing accidents to grow unchecked and the risks associated with the road/rail interface need to be pro-actively managed from the outset.
4.14 Level crossings probably constitute the greatest challenge from a business perspective, to the management of DFCCIL operations. There are 189 Level Crossings in the entire section making it roughly one Level Crossing every 2km. Earlier reports had visualised no Level Crossings on the freight corridor having recommended they be replaced by either ‘Road-Over Bridges’ (ROB) or ‘Road-Under Bridges’ (RUB).
4.15 With the decision to construct the freight corridor to a large extent in parallel with the existing railway line within land in the ownership of Indian Railways, provision of an ROB/RUB or removal of a Level Crossing facility has necessarily to take into account the existing operational railway line.
4.16 The existing guidelines of Indian Railways prescribe that a level crossing be replaced by a ROB/RUB where Traffic Vehicle Units (TVU’s) are more than 100,000 - (TVUs are the number of road vehicles using the Level Crossing multiplied by the number of trains passing the Level Crossing in 24 Hours). DFCCIL have stipulated that a level crossing with 50,000 TVUs or more is to be replaced.
4.17 In the guidelines issued by the Indian Railways Board, vide their letter no. 2003/CE-1/LX/59 dated 11.06.2003, the classification of Level Crossings, based on TVUs, was revised.
Class of Level Crossings Criteria
Special TVU> 50,000
A TVU>30,000 OR Line capacity utilization> 80% ( on single line) and road vehicles>1000
B-1 TVU>25,000
B TVU>20,000 and road vehicle> 750
C Manned Cat I- Clear visibility LC gates, where TVU> 6000 & road vehicles > 180
Cat II- Restricted visibility LC Gates where TVU> 6000 & road vehicles >120
Cat III- Restricted visibility LC Gates, where TVU is between 3000-6000
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Class of Level Crossings Criteria
C Unmanned TVU< 3000
D For cattle crossings
Table 4.2: Indian Railways Level Crossing Classification Guidelines
4.18 Along with the above guidelines, some other relevant stipulations are:
• All Level Crossings of class B-1, A, & Special are to be interlocked and remain open to road traffic.
• For Level Crossings of class B and lower, these are normally to be closed to road traffic and opened after receiving confirmation from the controlling station that there will be is no train movement in section.
4.19 These instructions authorise Indian Railways to ‘De-man’ a Level Crossing if the TVUs stipulated fall below 80% of the revised criteria.
4.20 It should be noted that the measure of TVUs currently applied by IR is ‘Traffic’ volume based on road vehicles only. There is no measure taken of the number of pedestrian users or cyclists and it is possible that animal-drawn carts are not counted consistently as site visits by the consultant to a number of level crossing locations revealed.
4.21 Further analysis of this topic and examples of current practice with International comparisons are given in Appendix 16.
4.22 In an ideal situation, no level crossings should be planned for a new railway. This was an original recommendation from an earlier report. The practicality of this alignment means that other measures must be taken in order not to impede rail freight services. As stated previously, where a Level Crossing has a TVU value greater than 50,000 it is to be replaced by either a ROB or a RUB. However, some Level Crossings will remain in the system due to them having a TVU value lower than the replacement criteria. These Level Crossings require to be analysed in respect of the safety of the DFC operations and user safety from the commencement of the DFCCIL services. Some of the issues requiring consideration follow.
4.23 The length of the highway passing over the Level Crossing will increase by 12.0m as a minimum when the DFC track is installed. If in the future a second DFC track is constructed, this distance will increase by a further 6.0m as a minimum. This all leads to an increase in the time it will take users to cross the entire rail corridor and will result in a larger area for those crossing to cover the entire Level Crossing width.
4.24 The existing Level Crossing barriers will need replacement. Technically, DFCCIL will only need to replace the barrier at the side where they are widening the rail corridor for their purposes. However, this will add in a maintenance imbalance and is likely to require both level crossing barriers to be replaced by power operated barriers.
4.25 Out of 189 level crossings, 23 are currently unmanned. Notwithstanding the current line speeds through unmanned level crossings, the introduction of the DFC at a line speed of 100kph increases both the traffic frequency and risk of an incident at such locations. The social implications of accidents linked to such usage are too great to sustain in the 21st century. It is for this reason that the consultant recommends that all unmanned level crossings be both manned and interlocked as part of an automatic block signalling system.
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4.26 Level Crossing control will be linked to two independent signalling systems, Indian Railways and DFCCIL. This imports a problem in terms of interlocking of Level Crossings and ultimate maintenance responsibility.
4.27 There are currently 189 level crossings in existence between Khurja and Sanehwal. Of these, based on the criterion that any level crossing with more than 50,000 TVUs is to be replaced by a ROB or RUB, 97 level crossings are to be replaced. Although work on 15 ROBs is known to be currently in progress and it is likely that not all the ROBs will be ready by the time of DFCCIL operations. It will be necessary therefore for all of the existing level crossing gates to be planned for interlocking until formal replacement by ROB.
4.28 Some 76 level crossings are required to be upgraded to a higher classification based on the Railway Board’s norms and existing TVUs.
4.29 There are 23 unmanned level crossings. In a high speed freight corridor route, keeping such unprotected level crossings is not desirable. They have either to be closed, manned and provided with other technological system to ensure safety and smooth operations. There are 11 such level crossings with TVUs of less than 1500, which could be considered for closure.
Level Crossing Recommendations
4.30 Provide power operated barriers that are controlled by track circuit/axle counters that are sited at such a distance as will allow the advance warning of the approach of trains by sounding warning bells. This is followed within a short duration of time by the lowering of the barriers. Assessment of time to clear crossings of vehicles is dependent on the maximum allowable approach speed of road and rail traffic.
4.31 Revision of the norms for level crossings in respect of the following:
• The road surface on the approach to and across level crossings should be smooth including the portion presently under Indian Railway ownership in order for users to clear the crossing as quickly as possible and to prevent the risk of grounding of vehicles with low road clearance
• Level crossings must have road width wider than the approach road in accordance with IR standards, at some locations this distance may be increased, to ensure better traffic flow across the railway corridor.
• The social implications of accidents linked to accidents at unmanned level crossings are too great to sustain in the 21st century. It is for this reason that the consultant recommends that all unmanned level crossings be both manned and interlocked as part of an automatic block signalling system.
• Install clearer approach warning signage to level crossings with signs erected well in advance to provide users with as much warning of the existence of the level crossing as the road approach speed requires.
• Revise the norms for considering replacement by ROB/RUB or for interlocking of level crossings. Considering Indian conditions of train and road movements, level crossings need to be particularly designed with user safety and speedier movement of both rail and road traffic in mind.
4.32 In the signalling section, it has been recommended to provide Automatic Block signalling and a Centralised Traffic Control (CTC) system for the route instead of absolute block signalling and operation of individual stations. Such an arrangement will immediately resolve the following issues with level crossing:
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4.33 All level crossings will necessarily get interlocked ensuring complete safety to rail and road traffic. This will ensure that all crossings remain normally open to road traffic.
4.34 All gate men will get automatic warning to close the level crossings from a predetermined location and to clear the controlling signal. The arrangement will cause minimum detention to road traffic while ensuring that rail traffic moves smoothly.
4.35 The existing gate man of Northern Railway Zone, while reducing his input for closing and opening of the crossing will not be unduly burdened with the traffic from the new corridor can continue with the present arrangements of Northern Railway. He would be under less pressure form road users as the gate would not remain closed for longer duration due DFFCIL trains.
4.36 All level crossings can be provided with Data Loggers which can be linked to the data loggers of the existing station as well as to the proposed CTC system. The equipment will collect necessary information regarding closure of the level crossing, when the signals were taken off and when the crossing was reopened to road traffic.
4.37 Data loggers are currently fitted to all stations in the Northern Railways section of this corridor. Until such time as Northern Railways upgrade their signalling systems, the consultant recommends that the existing data loggers be utilised for the conveying of information concerning approaching trains to the level crossing gate locations.
Figure 4.1 Diagrammatic demonstrating CCTV surveillance at Level Crossings
4.38 As a further measure of enhancing safety at level crossings, Close Circuit Television (CCTV) along with a public address system can be provided, monitored in the CTC office. In this arrangement level crossings can be operated remotely with no need for manning. It may, however, be prudent to retain the gateman for security reasons. The public can be warned on the public address system for any violations by road users and violators reported to the police with the pictures taken from the CCTV cameras. It is considered that power supply requirement as can be readily met from the OHE auxiliary transformers proposed for installation at every level crossing gate. This measure, while ensuring railways social obligation for smooth passage of trains over level crossings, would also be a constant reminder amongst road users of the dangers of the misuse of level crossings.
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Train Plan
Initial Optioneering
4.39 The key operation question to be addressed at the outset of the study was whether the proposed infrastructure (a single line with a number of crossing stations) is capable of delivering the required number of train paths to provide for up to 36/37 trains each way per day (TEWPD) for 20 hours out of a 24 hour period and to allow a 4 hour maintenance period.
4.40 This is determined by consideration of train-paths in accordance with conventional practice on a series of train graphs to determine the “best fit” solution. This iterative methodology also served to provide an indication as to whether the practice referred to as “non-timetable operation of freight trains” was viable.
4.41 This practice is not conducive to the operation of a planned network since it can introduce elements of variability over which the operator has little control and therefore directly impacts on costs of service provision as a higher level of resources have to be available to move traffic in more volatile circumstances. The practice can also have severely degrading consequences for maintenance planning.
4.42 From this manual exercise which followed the overall rationale of the project the consultant were able to arrive at proposals for location of crossing stations and other infrastructure requirements.
4.43 At this point it is relevant to re-emphasise the rationale behind the project:
4.44 “To achieve the goal of delivering the principal project requirement of this study, a rationale for analysis of the project has been adopted as follows. Traffic flows, particularly future predicted traffic and patterns, will, it is argued, inform a train operations plan which, in turn, is likely to vary over time as the traffic demand changes. Such an operations plan will similarly inform the alignment and engineering that is to be provided – location of station loop lines, double tracking, and level crossings as well as incremental changes to signalling for example. In other words the needs of the Business, under this rationale, should drive any operations which should in turn drive an engineering capacity provision which has a direct impact on alignment (and land-take provision). Costs of construction – alignment and engineering infrastructure, will be considered by reflecting the operations plan and any increases in traffic over time. “
4.45 In accepting the project rationale above and given that the traffic flows have been identified in considerable detail and agreed within DFCCIL as result of the Preliminary Draft Business Plan produced for DFCCIL in August 2009 the consultant was then in a position to consider the elements required within the Train Plan.
Train Plan Elements
4.46 In drafting the Train Plan there are a number of factors that impact on its construction. This can be both direct, based on each individual component and indirect, based on their inter- reactions with each other. The key elements are:
• Track Layout
• Signalling facilities
• Line speed
• Train type
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• Physical issues
• Crossing stations and loop lines
4.47 The track layout will generally provide a fundamental degree of flexibility on any particular route as a result of passing loops or cross-over sections to adjacent tracks. Where one train of higher speed capability is able to overtake one of lower capability for example, this clearly has a direct bearing on the timetable.
4.48 Signalling facilities also contribute to a route's capacity and thereby the associated timetable.
4.49 Generally, the more signals, the more trains that can be accommodated. However, there is also a direct relationship between layout and signals since each turnout (switch or point) on the main or running line will have a protecting signal.
4.50 The signalling mode on many single track routes, although simple, necessitates a two and a half-minute timetabling allowance for permission and confirmation of authority to occupy the single line section.
4.51 Permissible line speed is determined by gradient, curvature, quality and type of track, the stability, integrity and formation of track bed and the physical constraints of structures such as bridges that when taken together or individually may impose a necessary speed restriction.
4.52 The types of trains using the route must also be considered. They must clearly have the tractive effort capabilities to maintain permitted speeds over the ruling gradient. The braking and accelerating capabilities of the trains, their weight and maximum speed are significant considerations in timetabling planning.
4.53 Clearly, there are also the physical issues or inter-reactions between each phenomenon, for example, between a train's braking characteristics and a signal. A train must be able to stop at any danger signal if required to do so. The distance required is determined not only by the braking capabilities but line speed, gradient, weight of train and the driver's ability to sight the signal in a timely fashion.
4.54 Similarly, the number of signals has a bearing on line capacity. If because of the layout signals are close together, then in order to create sufficient braking distance it may be necessary to reduce the permissible line speed at that location, one feature overriding the benefits of another.
4.55 To all of the foregoing must be added the location and number of stations, sidings and terminals to be served, the connectional requirements and the ability to dovetail into other train services at junctions and interchanges.
4.56 Whilst line capacity is often at the forefront of a train planners mind it is equally important that a holistic view of operations overall is taken. Terminal operation and capacity, if it is lacking, can rapidly react on the operation of a route, particularly if it is a single line, by restricting clearance of trains from the running line and holding traffic in either direction until clearance of the terminal/destination (blocking back) will have a disastrous effect very rapidly on the performance of the route.
4.57 All these factors, plus the need to provide an attractive train service with regular departures and competitive journey times are an integral part of contributing to a marketable product, Movement, which is essentially what passengers and freight shippers are paying for. It should always be borne in mind that a railway which moves faster more of the time will always be more successful than one which slows down or stands still.
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Graphical Train Plan Methodology
4.58 The graphical plan, illustrated as an example in Appendix 6, represents movement within two axes, time and distance, which may be at any scale provided they are constant within the same graph. It is, from an international perspective, a simplified pre-digital approach to planning and is not able to represent all network constraining or mitigating parameters. In the representation made for this study, the time axis may represent time in seconds, minutes, hours or in some instances days. Similarly any linear measure of distance, together with its sub-divisions, may be applied to the distance axis. In most cases the only limitation to the amount of information displayed is the physical size of the display as the columnar capacity of software such as Excel exceeds the ability to display in hard copy the digital equivalent.
4.59 Once the individual axis values have been established reference back to the train plan elements is necessary in order to take the process to the next stage, which is to apply a line or series of lines to the graph to represent the physical occupation of the infrastructure by individual, or groups of, trains. The primary elements to be taken into consideration at this stage in the process are average speed of the train and signalling headway or spatial separation of the trains. Combination of these two elements will determine the area of coverage for each individual train path on the graph and therefore represents the basic building block of the graphical method.
4.60 Dependent on the scales of time and distance applied to the axes of the graph there will be a greater or lesser standard of definition applied to the representation of the train paths. It will usually be possible to reach sufficient definition in any event to assess the overall number of trains in each direction each day and to assess the degree to which the overall business requirements are being met by the specific iteration of the Train Plan. This is indicated on the example given in Appendix 6.
4.61 The degree of definition of the scales of the axes gives rise to what is commonly termed the “granularity” of the graphical output. In many cases it is only sufficient to have a fairly coarse degree of distance and/or time as this will be the first or relatively early stage in a number of iterations of the Train Plan which will become increasingly sophisticated in definition as the number of iterations increases and the level of detail in elements of the infrastructure represented increases.
4.62 Having arrived at a point in the compilation of the Train Plan Graph when a “cycle” or balanced number of trains (in each direction Up and Down) is represented within a specific time span (usually two or three hours) it is a straightforward process to calculate the number of times that cycle will repeat within 24 hours and therefore the total number of trains each way per day can be arrived at. This measure of TEWPD is a commonly accepted and internationally recognised measure of capacity whether for single lines or dual or multi-track railways.
4.63 Further sophistication can be applied to the graphical presentation of the Train Plan to provide indications of signal aspects and any restricted headways, such as when Drivers are required to proceed on “double yellow” aspects under 4 aspect Multiple Aspect signalling due to the need for capacity to be artificially increased in the short-term without providing additional infrastructure, subject, of course, to acceptance of performance risks. An example of output from this methodology is shown in Appendix 6.
4.64 There are acknowledged limitations to the methodology of graphical representation, primarily the time taken to prepare outline grids to suitable time and distance scales in order to provide information in a variety of formats.
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Train Plan Observations
4.65 Because of the late supply of the Preliminary Draft Business Plan produced for DFCCIL by IL&FS/Halcrow/RITES/Blake Dawson in August 2009 and the time taken to conduct the requisite number of physical iterations, the consultant was anxious to ensure that the Train Plan derived by this methodology both met the Business Plan requirements and was reasonably robust in operational terms.
4.66 There will always be a “trade-off” between capacity (in terms of numbers of trains) and performance or operational reliability. In the realisation of this, the preparation of a Train Plan has to start from the premise of operations being conducted in an “ideal” set of circumstances where uncontrolled disruptive influences are diminished to the point of extinction.
4.67 The ability to assess the balance of “trade-off” achieved has until relatively recently rested with the experience and ability of the planner and their understanding of the complexities of interaction between each of the individual elements of the train plan.
4.68 Whilst most successful outcomes in terms of consistent delivery of a reliable level of service have been accepted and given rise to little comment, identifiable failures in the compilation or audit and review of the Train Plan have quickly been subjected to detailed examination in order to identify any flaw or weakness in execution.
4.69 This has led to the development of alternative approaches to determine, preferably in advance of physical implementation of the timetable, the overall reliability of the proposed plan. These alternative approaches have been developed with assistance from computer software to the point where it is now possible to develop complex networks in “modelled” infrastructure with the full range of train planning elements represented.
4.70 A number of proprietary software systems are available for the conduct of what has become referred to by the generic description of “simulation” and these software packages are available readily, subject to nominal licence fees, either direct to users or through third party agencies and specialist consultancies. Some specialists will provide value-added services in interpreting the results of outputs from those simulations which are run to represent timetables. In any event the modelled infrastructure will need to be created in soft form and a timetable created and loaded to enable “real-time” simulation to be undertaken.
4.71 The real advantage of such simulation however is that not only will the “base” train plan be run and evaluated to reveal conflicts and capacity restraints which might not be readily apparent through other means, but additional disruptive incidents or episodes can be interposed into the simulation. This will create the effect of “real-world” external influences such as failures of technical equipment, delays at level crossings, traction inadequacies and even poor incident management.
4.72 It has become accepted practice internationally to provide simulation studies in advance of implementation of any new or revised timetable or train plan. Such studies are carried out for publicly owned or PPP funded railways. The model can be extended to become a performance monitoring and payment mechanism tool.
Train Plan Conclusions
4.73 The absence of any developed Train Plan for the DFC from previous studies has permitted engineering led solutions to dominate the planning of the new corridor and this is not confined solely to the section between Khurja and Ludhiana. Interposition of detours in order to reduce land take and therefore cost have also militated against work being undertaken to develop a base case train plan which can be evaluated for both cost and performance.
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4.74 The greatest disadvantage however has been the simple delay in reaching agreement on a consistent and accepted Business Plan and it is of course a matter for concern that the extant Business Plan published in August 2009 is still only at Preliminary Draft Stage.
4.75 The Consultant has produced indicative plans by train graph that meet business requirements expressed in numbers of trains each way per day as illustrated in the appendices. These have been subject to the inherent limitations of that process and are relatively “granular”.
4.76 The train planning graph (which also functions as headway and signal sighting chart) also demonstrates that it is possible to meet the Business Plan requirements for train paths although this has been produced for an extracted period within 24 hours. However simple extrapolation will confirm numbers of train paths available to meet the required traffic projections.
4.77 Greater sophistication in Train Planning can be achieved by the use of simulation software which is already available widely internationally and is competitively priced. It is indefensible by any standards that the use of resources internally by RDSO and its potential allied partners seeking to develop alternatives should continue in these circumstances.
Train Plan Recommendations
4.78 In order to provide an auditable level of certainty that any proposed train plan for the most operationally challenging portion of the DFC is viable and will meet the Business Plan requirements even under stress we continue to recommend strongly that a full simulation study is carried out.
4.79 Such a full study will amply demonstrate the viability of operational planning and also permit integration with other stages of the DFC project as infrastructure models are built up for the remainder of the route.
Operational Safety
General
4.80 The Consultant held an internal study workshop on Strategic Safety issues and this enabled us to identify issues considered in previous study reports, which in Strategic Safety terms were very limited. Indeed the whole area of Strategic Safety as a concept is not yet well developed within the ethos of DFCCIL, IR or even MOR.
4.81 Almost every policy, investment or operational decision taken has an impact on safety. It is therefore vital that safety considerations be embedded effectively into the decision-making process.
4.82 There is little doubt that establishment of a Safety Standards regime will provide a starting point for measurable improvement in safety over time as well as the relatively simple and straightforward development of acceptable practice. Without the establishment of such a safety standards regime DFCCIL will remain reactive to incidents and accidents as they occur both during construction of the DFC and when it is operating in parallel to, and interchanging traffic with, IR lines.
4.83 In most countries, the rules (i.e. national law, practice and standards) were progressively assembled over the whole history of the railway, usually in an attempt to avoid repetition of events which had taken place, rather than as a result of logical analysis. As with any set of empirical rules, it was not possible to prove that they covered everything that could possibly happen, but their manner of development meant that they cover everything which was known
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about. They were therefore essentially backward-looking, reactive and did not contribute to development of a more stable safety regime.
4.84 This reactive approach has been abandoned in most other countries with advanced railway systems as it was recognised to be failing following a series of catastrophic incidents with high loss of life. Whilst these incidents involved passenger trains and it might be thought that this would therefore have little relevance to operations on the DFC, yet again, it must be emphasised, that the DFC will not be operating in isolation and will be running in parallel or in close proximity to IR lines. An accident on either line could have potentially catastrophic consequences for the other.
4.85 Standards are not however a defence against incompetence. Safety is delivered by applying sound professional judgement and competence, and common sense to the selection and application of appropriate standards.
4.86 The Consultant has found, in reviewing and developing proposals for implementation of a safety standards regime, that there has been on occasion a degree of resistance to this concept and have so far only been able to attribute this to a degree of complacency quite unacceptable by international standards.
4.87 Statistics have been quoted which appear to support an excellent safety record for IR, in particular for year 2001-2002, where the number of accidents per million train km. on world class railways was:
• JNR: 0.65
• DB: 0.91
• FS: 0.73
• AMTRAK: 0.66
• RZD: 0.89
• IR (BG): 0.55
4.88 Prima facie these are convincing statistics until further examination of the make-up of them reveals that on Indian Railways, minor accidents/incidents where ascribed (arbitrarily) to personal negligence, level crossing accidents where no death or injury occurs, deaths occurring due to passengers falling from trains or killed while trespassing on the track are not included in the figure of fatalities.
4.89 Due to the almost total absence of a Strategic Safety Concept of the DFC, a substantial identification exercise of national data sources is required over the medium term. However without an over-arching safety concept, expressed in terms which are viable nationally, being evolved by DFCCIL, specific worksite safety items cannot be placed into their proper context.
Operational Safety Conclusions
4.90 There is little, if any, evidence of a strategic approach to Operational Safety issues by the DFCCIL and there has been an absence of consideration of this important element in previous studies. Whilst contractual documents have been drafted by DFCCIL and reviewed by the Consultant this documentation has sought to transfer primary responsibility to Contractors, a process of very dubious value and questionable moral and legal rectitude.
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Operational Safety Recommendations
4.91 The consultant recommends that the DFCCIL arrange a full Strategic Safety survey in order to provide a base plan for further action and to ensure that all participants, as many staff are transitory in appointment on secondment, are properly briefed on joining DFCCIL and current contractual draft documentation should be legally reviewed to ensure compliance with best possible standards.
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INTENTIONALLY BLANK
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5. Infrastructure Review
Section 1 Alignment
Scope
5.1 This section of the report describes the alignment proposals from Khurja to Ludhiana as determined by the DFCCIL following earlier DFC concept reports. The alignment proposed is therefore the preferred alternative option. It describes the route and the rationale for its position relative to IR’s existing network and proximity to existing customer stabling and loading facilities. Available survey data and detours are described in addition to maintenance yard and crossing station layout alternatives. Commentary from both DFCCIL and the Consultant are given with a final concluding part containing Consultant recommendations.
Description
5.2 The total route length of the Khurja to Ludhiana section forming this study is approximately 400km.
Figure 5.1: Route map of the Ludhiana (Sanehwal) to Khurja study section of the DFC
5.4 Previous study reports had described the proposed corridor alignment as being a route parallel to the existing main tracks. At junction stations and larger towns however, significant detours had been proposed in both the RITES and JICA reports to provide the dedicated corridor the project demanded but also to eliminate the interfaces with existing junction
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stations and the public that a parallel alignment would bring. Detours, additionally, eliminate the constraints of construction of a new rail corridor through congested areas. Typical constraints to a corridor route through such areas include:
• Communities and households in close proximity to the rail tracks;
• Public use of the rail corridor as means of accessing areas of the town or adjacent communities.
• Level Crossings with high pedestrian and vehicular traffic movements.
5.5 Such a strategy offers greater freedom for designing an acceptable alignment compliant with the geometric layout suitable for a heavy haul railway with fewer impacting restrictions.
5.6 The Ludhiana to Khurja section of corridor under study adjoins the Kolkata to Dadri section of the Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor at Khurja. Northwards from Khurja the existing Indian Railways network is a single line mixed traffic connection that runs for approximately half of the route as far as the approaches to Saharanpur where the layout becomes a predominantly two track section of railway continuing to Sanehwal, the proposed termination of this final section of the Eastern Corridor approximately 8km South East of Ludhiana. The project longitudinal distances, historically referred to in railway terms as the ‘chainage’, run from south to north and are specified in kilometres.
5.7 The proposed south to north corridor alignment is for the construction of a single track freight only railway parallel to the existing Indian Railways mixed traffic network. The route may become double track in the future should demand and capacity require. The alignment is proposed to run predominantly on the west (left-hand) side until the southern approaches to Rajpura where the corridor crosses to the east (right-hand) side, all on a south to north direction.
5.8 The freight corridor is proposed to be generally co-planar with the adjacent railway except at detours and grade separations. Provision for a second track, to be constructed parallel to the first, is allowed for in the DFCCIL proposal.
5.9 The connection of the railway at Khurja Junction does not form part of this project and falls within the responsibility of the interfacing section of corridor. The Indian Railways chainage of 3km, to the north of Khurja Junction, is the point at which this section of corridor study commences.
5.10 Grade separation, to eliminate flat junctions and to minimise the adjacent Indian Railways network operations impacting on those of the freight corridor and vice versa, is proposed at a number of locations along the route, such as:
i) At Hapur, where the DFC passes over the Delhi to Moradabad main line approximately 2km west of Hapur Junction.
ii) At Meerut, to provide grade separation to allow the corridor to cross the Delhi to Meerut main line railway.
iii) At Tapri, where the corridor crosses over the Delhi to Tapri single line railway.
iv) At Ambala Cantt, to allow the corridor to cross the Delhi to Ambala main line railway.
v) On the south approach to Rajpura, to allow the corridor to cross the existing main tracks from one side to the other.
vi) At Sirhind to allow the corridor to cross over a rail line connection to Nangaldam.
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5.11 Presently, no continuous chainage exists along the corridor route from Khurja to Sanehwal other than the IR chainage. However, this existing measurement is not consistent along the whole route length as the stretch between Khurja and Meerut has an independent measurement start and finish point from the stretch between Meerut and Sanehwal.
DFCCIL Commentary
5.12 The RITES study report proposals were based on an ideal concept where constraints in the approaches to built-up areas would be overcome by large detour sections of corridor. This alignment concept was not commented on in detail in the subsequent JICA study report owing to the non-availability of survey drawings. For this Ludhiana to Khurja section, some 280km of corridor was therefore envisaged to run parallel to the existing IR network and a substantial 135km was envisaged to be detour alignment. In addition, a relatively large number of flyovers for rail over rail grade separation had been included in order to bypass stations. Level crossings were, generally, to be bypassed by the construction of ROBs. The JICA study, to a large extent, continued with these concepts although at the time of reporting, survey drawings were not made available to their consultants.
5.13 Following publication of both RITES and JICA reports in 2007, the Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporation of India Limited (DFCCIL) team carried out a further internal review of the alignment concepts and proposals and made the strategic decision to pursue the construction of the Dedicated Freight Corridor through towns and villages parallel, so far as practicable, with the existing rail tracks and only detouring to make grade separations to ensure no interface between the DFC and the existing IR network corridors along the route length. It is this latter preferred alignment proposal that forms the basis of DFCCIL/MOR recommendations for implementation.
5.14 This strategy is aimed at reducing the environmental impact, reducing land-take costs and reducing programme uncertainty. Savings in land acquisition costs would arise as a direct result of Indian Railways owning the land either side of their present network alignment generally up to approximately 20 metres either side of the nearest running rail. Any significant detour outside of these limits would clearly incur land acquisition costs and importantly would likely import financial and project programme risk while land purchase negotiations took place. At the same time the proximity of the IR network would, it has been suggested, make connections to the rest of the network for origin/destination of DFC traffic easier to facilitate and manage.
Consultant Commentary
5.15 For clarity, consistency and identification of equipment and structures in the corridor for subsequent maintenance provision and asset management it is proposed that this section of dedicated freight corridor be assigned its own unique continuous chainage. Current (nearest) IR chainages and the proposed continuous project chainage have been given (see 5.10 above). Based on this continuous chainage it will be seen that the total route length from Khurja to Sanehwal is approximately 400km. The chainage/location chart is given in appendix 2.
5.16 The biggest constraint to the alignment review process has been the accuracy of drawing location information. In order to facilitate a permanent way design with the accuracy to establish clearances to overbridges, structures and adjacent networks for 100kph running, longitudinal surveys are required to allow close tolerance measurement to take place. DFCCIL did present drawings that were based on site topographic survey but this information was not sufficient to allow the consultant to utilise this information to produce alternative solutions, to prepare cross-sections or to compute quantities. The Eastern Corridor between Khurja and Ludhiana must therefore be regarded to be at an early design stage and further
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survey data and mapping will be required to allow full engineering design and environmental review to be undertaken with sufficient rigour.
5.17 The alignment technical proposals for this corridor build are modest in ambition relative to some international dedicated corridors. Nonetheless, proposals made by the DFCCIL will require a change from current practises particularly with regard to alignment construction, setting-out accuracy and subsequent track maintenance.
5.18 The Indian Railways standards proposed are fully adequate for this corridor to run trains with a permitted speed of 100kph. The proposed ruling gradient of 1:200 for example is, from an international perspective, generous (low), however, this will be necessary to cater for the tractive effort capabilities of the current fleet of Indian Railways locomotives that is envisaged will be the facility that will run on this new corridor at commencement of services.
5.19 Closer review was undertaken on proposals made in relation to permitted line speeds around the proposed minimum horizontal curve radius of 700m. The Consultant has made observations on these criteria in paragraph 5.32 below.
5.20 Previous study reports had described the proposed alignment as parallel to the existing main tracks. However, at Junction Stations and larger towns, these reports proposed detours to eliminate the difficulties of constructing a new rail line in congested areas. The detours proposed were to overcome the following identified constraints:
• Properties in close proximity to the rail tracks.
• Public use of the rail corridor as means of accessing between areas of the town.
• Level Crossings with high pedestrian and vehicular traffic movements.
• Greater freedom for designing an acceptable alignment compliant with the geometric constraints for a heavy haul railway all impacting on an acceptable solution.
5.21 As an alternative to detouring, an elevated corridor route could be envisaged. The concept of elevated railways would not be new to India and certainly in Delhi today the Metro passenger system is a working example of this. A desk-top review was undertaken into the implications of a dedicated freight corridor independent from the existing railway infrastructure and the possibility of a continuous elevated structure. Cost was the overriding constraint as were the complexities of providing a second freight line in the future. Sections of elevated corridor to by-pass or cross some rail/road alignments, to reduce land take at wayside stations ad for embankments of 4.0m or more height should still be considered.
5.22 For operational flexibility, crossing stations are proposed on the DFC. The proposal in previous studies was to provide crossing stations every 10km from Khurja to Sanehwal. DFCCIL are generally following this recommendation. The Consultant has performed a review of the number and proposed localities of these crossing stations and proposed alternatives with justification where appropriate.
5.23 Alignment, plans, maps, structure information was received from DFCCIL over time and formed the baseline data for the subsequent study. The information received is in the following format:
a) In areas of parallel alignment, copies of the Horizontal & Vertical alignment drawings between 3km at Khurja Junction through to 360km near Sanehwal.
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b) Yard Plans in the form of sketches and drawings:
(i) Khurja City (ii) Hapur Yard (iii) Meerut City (iv) Meerut Cantt (v) Deoband (vi) Daurala (vii) Muzaffarnagar (viii) Saharanpur (ix) Ambala Cantt (x) Ambala City (xi) Kalanaur (xii) Jagadhari (xiii) Pilkhani (xiv) Khanna (xv) Shambu (xvi) Rajpura (xvii) Sirhind (xviii) Sanehwal
c) Detour & grade separation alignment plans, based on aerial mapping at:
(i) Hapur (ii) Meerut (iii) Tapri (iv) Ambala Cantt (v) Rajpura (vi) Sirhind
d) Detour Horizontal & Vertical alignment drawings compiled for Hapur, Meerut and Sirhind detours and for the grade separations Rajpura & Tapri.
e) Lists of Major and Minor bridges and Level Crossings for the entire route length.
f) List of proposed Crossing Station sites.
g) Suggested Maintenance Depot Locations
5.24 The drawing information provided by DFCCIL is 2D and has limited value for the design review of locations where alternative proposals may be available. The extent of the corridor width shown is extremely narrow and as such it is impossible to determine accurately the full impact of the proposal for either single or double track in terms of earthworks, social and environmental impacts.
5.25 In addition to the provision of information, the Consultant participated in a route inspection by Inspection Coach attached to various service trains. Over a two day period, the entire route length was additionally surveyed. Opportunities to take photographs and video footage were taken over the period. The engineering team participated in site visits on both Ludhiana and Meerut sub-sections, over four separate days with DFCCIL representatives in attendance. Typical sites posing design and construction complexities were visited including major bridges, some crossing station locations, some wayside station locations that interface with the local community and examples of level crossings likely to be converted to ROBs.
5.26 A Route Plan has been prepared based on Survey of India 1:50,000 Topographic Sheets and is included as Volume 2 to this report. The Consultant has magnified the scale to approximately 1:25,000 in an effort to demonstrate the general principles of the DFCCIL alignment. The Consultant has consciously excluded detour options as these are likely to have over complicated some areas of the Route Plan and could have caused confusion to the reader. The Route Plan is not ideal and would have been more appropriate at a larger scale however such mapping, at say 1:2,500, is not available in India.
5.27 The Consultant’s review has taken into consideration the horizontal and longitudinal design drawings prepared on behalf of DFCCIL by various consultant firms. The Consultant has endeavoured to identify those locations where, for whatever reason, there may be an impact on the final design and therefore land requirements and earthwork volumes.
5.28 Locations have been identified in respect of the alignment design where changes in the vertical alignment occur within the length of transitions in the horizontal alignment and locations where vertical curves had not been designed at locations where the change in
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gradient is more than 0.04%. However, these issues do not fundamentally change the principles of the design or its concepts.
5.29 The Consultant has taken into consideration the impact a double track DFC would impart on the current design proposals. This aspect brings some major issues in terms of social and environmental impacts particularly in the cities and villages that the alignment passes through or alongside adjacent buildings. These are generally on the approaches to or in station yards where, predominantly, railway colonies will require to be relocated; on the approaches to cities where buildings are in close proximity to the track and; at some of the detours where further options should be considered to overcome these issues. At wayside stations, the proposed alignment is located, in part, behind station buildings and platforms which will require the provision of alternative pedestrian access to the station area. Some wayside stations are situated close to local highways which may be impacted by such a proposal. Consideration could be given to supporting the DFC alignment on viaduct through these areas to limit the impact on the surrounding infrastructure and accesses.
5.30 One such example, at the Ambala Detour, the current proposal has the DFC located behind a village at the South end. At the point where the DFC alignment corridor turns to detour, there is insufficient space for a second track to be constructed, even if constructed on viaduct, without serious impact on the entire building line. The consultant recommends that a further option be considered involving moving the start of the detour by at least 2km to the south of the village.
5.31 It has also been noted that the Business Plan dated August 2009 has, in the appendix relating to DFC Operation and Maintenance, a statement that “The maximum design train speed shall be 125kph and the maximum operation speed shall be 100kph. The maximum and minimum design speeds at any location shall be based on an assessment of the attainable, and likely, speeds of all type of trains permitted, or which it is intended to permit, to run over the section of route concerned.” This design speed tolerance is not stated in the Performance Specification issued by the DFCCIL to the consultant and assessment has therefore been made on a corridor permitted line speed of 100kph.
5.32 The Performance Specification for the route, in terms of track and alignment, has stated that the limit for curve radius is 700m with a maximum line speed of 100kph. We have compared this with other freight lines in various countries around the world and found that most mixed commodity freight lines have a maximum permitted line speed of 120kph to 130kph, particularly for container traffic. Dedicated coal lines are generally designed for a maximum permitted line speed of 80kph due to the heavier loads being hauled.
5.33 Any aspirations to increase line speed in the future, a 700m radius would limit the maximum speed attainable to around 120kph utilising maximum cant & cant deficiency. These are not the limits to which a new dedicated freight corridor should be designed. It is therefore suggested that the minimum radius of horizontal curve be increased to 1000m which will be capable of accommodating modest speed increases such as 120kph to 130kph with minimum work; recanting for instance. Further commentary on radii and compensated gradients is given in the Appendices in Volume 4 of this report.
5.34 Crossing stations are to be provided along the corridor at locations determined by the operational management requirements for the route. Previous studies have indicated that Crossing Stations be located at 10km intervals between Khurja to Sanehwal. The DFCCIL is following these recommendations with both Meerut and Ludhiana sub-section project office representatives providing specific information on preferred location of crossing stations.
5.35 Alignment drawings supplied to the Consultant were not specific in relation to the position or impact of the construction of the crossing stations. The DFCCIL provided the list of crossing
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station locations and these were reviewed. The interfaces with operability and surrounding environment were considered.
5.36 The interval required between the DFC through alignment and the IR network will need to allow at least 12m from the centre line of the adjacent IR track. At some locations labelled as Crossing Stations on the alignment drawings the proposed interval is 6.0m or lower. The typical crossing station is a three track layout as shown below.
Figure 5.2: Typical DFCCIL three line crossing station proposal
5.37 Some crossing stations are situated close to local highways which may be impacted by such a proposal. Consideration has been given to supporting the DFC alignment and crossing station on viaduct through these areas to limit the impact on the surrounding public infrastructure and accesses.
5.38 Maintenance Yards are to be located along the route. DFCCIL have advised the likely location of such facilities which have been reviewed by the consultant. The proposed locations for maintenance yard/depots in terms of distance from Khurja are: 80km, 148km, 191km, 280km and 346km.
5.39 Maintenance yard locations are workable although the consultant recommends that further consideration be given to making the distances covered per depot to be similar since the distance between the second and third depot is very short. An ideal distance between depots would be around 80km to 100km. Suggested locations would be 220km, 300km and 346km.
5.40 The Performance Specification requires switches to 1 in 12 for entry into loops with an entry/exit speed of 40kph. Further studies have indicated current speed restrictions of 15kph and 30kph are applied for all 1:8.5 and 1:12 turnouts used in India railways today. It is considered that this speed is lower than might be expected on a dedicated freight railway. Entry/exit speeds in the region of 60kph should be adopted.
Consultant Conclusion & Recommendation
5.41 The Consultant supports and recommends adoption of the DFCCIL preferred alternative alignment. This alignment route is generally parallel to the existing Khurja to Ludhiana IR network with detours at built-up areas kept to an absolute minimum.
5.42 A Route Plan has been prepared by the Consultant based on Survey of India 1:50,000 Topography Sheets with the scale increased to approximately 1:25,000 to demonstrate the general principles of the DFCCIL alignment. The route alignment drawings supporting this alternative, including the location of Crossing Stations and Maintenance Yards which have been nominally located to meet the Business requirements of the project, are given in Volume 2 of this report.
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5.43 The preferred alignment that, to a large extent, is to be built on IR network Right of Way (ROW) is both sensible from a practical build point of view as well as being both cost effective and environmentally better in reducing land purchase and resettlement costs. There would, in addition, be a consequential reduction in programme delay risks, as a result of reduced land purchase negotiations and agreements to be reached. Construction of this linear project on IR land would also provide greater certainty in programme ambition. Liaison with the adjacent interfacing Northern Railway Zone operations will be better facilitated with such an alignment.
5.44 There are locations along the length of the proposed route where IR have, in the past, detoured to allow the construction of new bridge structures at sites where, it is thought, the old structure was life expired. The consultant recommends that the DFCCIL enter into discussion with IR with a view to DFCCIL relocating the IR alignment back to its original alignment thereby allowing DFCCIL to utilise the current IR alignment thereby reducing the amount of earthworks required with the associated reduction in environmental impact of constructing a further detour alignment. An example is given in the Appendices in Volume 4 of this report.
5.45 The alignment technical proposals for this corridor build are modest in ambition relative to some international dedicated corridors. Nonetheless, proposals made by the DFCCIL will require a change from current practises particularly with regard to alignment construction and subsequent infrastructure maintenance regimes to be imposed.
5.46 The Consultant has utilised ‘Google’ mapping to provide overlays of detour options for example, however it is not detailed enough to provide a detailed examination of all the impacts and issues, and certainly lacks the accuracy for the setting-out of any permanent way alignment. The consultant recommends that the whole project section have a more definitive and extensive mapping background either from an aerial mapping exercise supplemented, where necessary, with a detailed engineering survey of the topography along the areas where the alignment is proposed.
5.47 The IR trunk route specification standards proposed are fully adequate for this corridor to run trains with a permitted speed of 100kph with axle loads up to 32.5 tonnes. Although the proposed ruling gradient of 1:200 is, from an international perspective, generous (low), this is practical and will be necessary to cater for the tractive effort capabilities of the current fleet of Indian Railways locomotives that will continue in service at commencement of, if not for all of, the concession agreement.
5.48 The area of land required outwith IR boundaries is difficult to determine due to the lack of quality mapping and drawing information available. Generally, the IR boundary is located approximately 18.0m from the centre of the nearest rail track. As has been stated previously, it is DFCCIL’s intension to construct as much of the DFC within this available land space. However, additional land will be required to accommodate a two track DFC.
5.49 The consultant has considered the impacts double tracking the DFC will bring in terms of social and environmental particularly in the cities and villages that the alignment passes through or alongside. In order to ensure constructability, reduce land requirements and environmental impacts the consultant recommends use of various earthwork profiles and bridge structure forms.
5.50 The consultant recommends therefore that some of the impacts of the double track railway be reduced by the use of one of two earthworks profiles: Cross sections depicting these two earthwork profiles are included in the Appendices to this report.
• Independent, where the DFCCIL alignment is supported on an earthwork that is, in general, no closer than 2.4m at the toe of the earthwork.
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• Integrated, where the DFCCIL earthwork is built onto, by way of benching, the existing IR earthwork thereby making them homogenous.
5.51 To construct the DFC on an independent earthwork, assuming an embankment height of 2.0m, will require the centre of the nearest DFC rail track to be located approximately 19.0m from the centre of the nearest IR rail track. Translating this to a double track railway will require approximately 20.0m of new land to be purchased along the corridor. At crossing stations more land will be required to accommodate the additional tracks.
5.52 The corridor is, of course, slightly undulating with some earthworks being much higher than 2.0m (we anticipate 10.0m high earthworks at some bridge structures). This will necessitate wider earthworks and a need for considerably more land.
5.53 Additionally, consideration should be given to carrying the DFC on viaduct where the embankment earthwork is proposed to be greater than 4.0m in height and at locations where the available space is restrictive for the construction of earthworks and where the DFC interfaces with wayside stations.
5.54 To meet the aspirations of the DFCCIL Business Plan the consultant recommends that the earthworks/viaducts be constructed to double track standards from the outset. Doing this will save the added expense of reinstating the contract strategy and negotiations and agreement on access and construction compounds for a second time.
5.55 Closer review was undertaken on proposals made in relation to permitted line speeds around the 700m radius curves proposed. The consultant recommends that the minimum horizontal curve radius be increased to 1000m in order that future line speed increases can be accommodated without utilising maximum criteria and to reduce track maintenance effort.
5.56 The consultant have considered restrictions in the operation of the crossing station layout in the design proposed by DFCCIL (based on the standard IR design) and recommend the following alternative proposal.
• Ability to simultaneously accept trains approaching the crossing station from both directions. Overlaps have been provided to ensure that IR Signalling Principles are met.
• Ability to accept a second train in both directions simultaneously by “swinging” the over- lap indications.
• Ability to regulate trains in the event of disruption or out of course running.
• Reduced width of land take.
• Trapping protection able to be provided in all directions.
• Ability to handle 1500 metre length trains.
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Figure 5.3: Alternative Consultant three line crossing station proposal
5.57 The consultant recommends that Maintenance Yard inter location distances be made similar to each other in order to ensure consistent incident response and travel times. An ideal distance between depots would be around 80km to 100km. Suggested locations would be 80km, 160km, 220km, 300km and 346km. Maintenance Yards should be located close to conurbations to provide easy access to healthcare, schooling and market facilities for staff located there. This has been taken into consideration when suggesting the locations earlier.
5.58 The Performance Specification requires switches to 1 in 12 for entry into loops with an entry/exit speed of 40kph. Further studies have indicated current speed restrictions of 15kph and 30kph are applied for all 1:12 and 1:8.5 turnouts used in India railways today. It is considered that this speed is lower than might be expected on a dedicated freight railway. Entry/exit speeds in the region of 60kph should be adopted. Entry speeds (and exit clearance speeds) will clearly affect capacity of the corridor and the loop lines. The consultant recommends that entry/exit speeds in the region of 60kph be adopted throughout the corridor section and 1:16 turnouts to maximise this capacity are therefore proposed for inclusion at the outset of design.
5.59 Modern design is undertaken in 3D which has the added advantage of providing quick access to accurate design/construction/maintenance information that is available in perpetuity. The consultant recommends that this project is considered in this light and that it be designed in 3D with design information provided to the implementation contractor who will then provide “as constructed” 3D information for the maintainer to use in executing day to day and major maintenance activities.
Section 2 Civil Engineering, Earthworks, Bridges and Construction
Scope
5.60 This section of the report describes the civil engineering earthworks, bridges and general permanent-way proposals and review from Khurja to Ludhiana as determined by the DFCCIL preferred alignment following earlier DFC concept reports. It includes commentary on geotechnical, hydrology, bridges and construction methodology and quality control measures. Commentary from both the DFCCIL and the Consultant are given with a final part of this section containing Consultant recommendations.
Description & DFCCIL Commentary
5.61 Section 1, Alignment gives the description and DFCCIL commentary on the alignment which this Section supports the alignment philosophy.
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Consultant Commentary
Earthworks and foundations –
5.62 The DFCCIL have provided copies of the Ground Investigation Reports that they have in their possession. This information does not cover the full length of the route, only independent parts. A summary of the information received is included in the Appendices.
5.63 From review of the Geotechnical information provided we have been able to establish that the soils forming the upper strata along the route are not suitable as a foundation for the earthworks or for founding bridge and other structures. This material is composed mainly of silt which is susceptible to heave when wet and has low to medium compressibility.
5.64 In order to construct the earthworks to support the DFC, it will be necessary to excavate up to 1.0m of the upper soil layer. Further, there may be a need to preload or support earthworks on piles on approach to major structures in order to limit or prevent long term settlement. Any post construction settlement will impact on the line and level of the railway track and could result in bad ride conditions or possibly cause an accident should track condition not be monitored in the early life of the new railway. At this point in the study, DFCCIL have not made us aware of their proposals with respect to earthworks stability and track condition monitoring.
5.65 Material sources have been identified through discussion with DFCCIL representatives in Meerut and Ludhiana. Sources have been advised to us for Stone Metal, Sand and Fly Ash. Sources for Soil Morrum and Embankment Fill are yet to be identified. A more detailed list of suggested sources is included in the more detail Geotechnical Review paper contained in the Appendices in Volume 4 to this report.
5.66 Consideration has been given in association with the specialist Environmental Consultant, if the excavated materials, currently thought to be unsuitable, can be mixed with other soils to allow them to be incorporated into the proposed construction. Our opinion is that the unsuitable material can be mixed with fly-ash or cement and other suitable materials to allow it to be reincorporated into the embankment construction. To give some meaning to this, the volume of unsuitable material resulting from excavations could be of the order of 10,000,000m3. The volume of fill material for the embankment construction is of the order of 32,000,000m3. The ability to reuse the unsuitable material could reduce the volume of new materials required to be sourced by up to 25%, say, 8,000,000m3.
5.67 DFCCIL should arrange for various mix permutations to be designed and for these to be tested by an approved soils laboratory in order to identify those design mixes that produce fill material with the correct strength requirements for incorporation in the works.
5.68 The earthworks should be designed and constructed to be capable of carrying 32.5tonne axle loads even although it may be some time before train consists will be required to be changed to this configuration due to capacity constraints.
5.69 Some of the impacts of a double track railway can be reduced by the use of one of two earthworks profiles:
• Independent, where the DFCCIL alignment is supported on an earthwork that is, in general, no closer than 2.4m to IR’s adjacent earthwork at the toe. • Integrated, where the DFCCIL earthwork is built onto, by way of benching, the existing IR earthwork thereby making them homogenous.
5.70 Cross sections depicting these two earthwork profiles are included in the Appendices to this report.
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5.71 The independent earthwork is best utilised in open countryside where there are no restrictions in terms of land constraints, not forgetting that land acquisition is a major factor to be borne in mind in this project. The integrated earthwork is likely to be concentrated on the immediate approaches to towns and villages where land availability is likely to be constrained as the railway boundary is, in the majority of cases by the building line of those structures abutting the railway corridor.
5.72 This aspect has not been able to be analysed in any great detail due to the lack of survey information and mapping at a suitable scale and accuracy. The timeframe for this commission also has a bearing on the depth to which we can probe and analyse.
5.73 There is an issue relating to integrated earthworks that will require further investigation and consideration. This is a legal question that relates to construction since DFCCIL, although a Government of India organisation is totally independent of Indian Railways. The existing earthworks are the responsibility of IR and the question to be answered is “should an Integrated earthwork require to be constructed what is its legal position”? What is the legal status, one to the other, the DFCCIL to IR, regarding the insurance of the works in terms of the continued stability of the IR earthwork during construction and what remedy IR would have against DFCCIL should an incident occur where the earthwork failed. The Consultant recommends that legal opinion be sought on this matter in order that all parties can be satisfied with the eventual position.
5.74 As discussed in the alignment section, if embankments higher than 4.0m are constructed in viaduct this could result in a saving on land acquisition of approximately 35% to 50% resulting in a purchase of land in these areas. This situation is as a result of a structure width of 15.0m for a double track railway compared to an earthwork footprint of 30.0m. However the new construction still requires land as the viaduct would be constructed no closer than 3.0m to the toe of the existing adjacent IR earthwork thereby requiring 8.0m of land to be acquired as opposed to 18.0m.
Bridge structures –
5.75 The proposed route alignment is described in the Alignment section of this report. Here we shall concentrate on bridges only bearing in mind that these proposed structures will support the new alignment as it passes over obstructions such as; highways, canals, major rivers and other rail routes.
5.76 In considering the requirement for a possible future double track alignment comments given relate to both the single and double track formations. A Bridge Schedule identifying the existing structures and those additional structures required to facilitate the project is contained within the Appendices in Volume 4 of this report.
5.77 During the period of study, information was received from DFCCIL regarding proposed bridge structures along the route alignment. The Consultant was provided with General Arrangement Drawings for all minor bridges (small span box culverts up to 4.0m span), a Hydrological Assessment for Major Bridges to the North of the route and Geotechnical Reports at the majority of minor bridges and at various locations along the route. This information has been supplemented with the proposed route alignment drawings together with sketches, based on aerial photography, for the detours and grade separators at Hapur, Meerut, Tapri, Ambala, Sirhind and Rajpura.
5.78 To more fully appreciate the alignment practicalities and supplement hard copy information the Consultant participated in a two day Train Inspection in addition to specific site visits in order to familiarise themselves with some of the issues associated with construction of the DFC.
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5.79 There are 380 minor bridges. A large number of minor bridge drawings are available with notable omissions of the route between Tapri and Sarsawa and from Kesri to Ludhiana
5.80 Generally, all minor bridges are proposed to be of concrete box construction. As the bearing strata at shallow depths is weak and bearing capacity is low, this form of construction, spread footings, is endorsed by the Consultant and is considered adequate provided the hydraulic requirements are met when passing over a water course, river or canal. However, some of these minor bridges are currently pipes and the new works could therefore be constructed of corrugated steel pipe of adequate diameter to meet the hydraulic requirements for each individual structure. This option would be quicker and easier to install.
5.81 There are 81 major structures and 3 important structures along the route. Drawings for the proposals at these structures are not available. These structures are constructed in various forms: Warren Truss, Plate girder and pre-cast concrete. A number of the major bridges are flood relief spans and are located along the entire length of the route. The remainder span canals and river courses.
5.82 Considering the visual information gathered during the specific site visits
it is highly likely that all of those Picture 3.12: Major Bridge 325 just south of structures over major waterways and Rajpura canals will be constructed utilising Well Foundations which the consultant would endorse.
5.83 Standard designs and drawings have been developed by DFCCIL for different span lengths for ballasted decks as well as for un-ballasted decks all for 32.5t axle load in accordance with the DFCCIL design loading diagrams. Using standard designs considerable cost and time will be saved. The design and drawings developed by DFCCIL range from 3.05m pre-cast concrete pre- tensioned slabs to 76.0m span steel truss. Composite as well as post Picture 3.13: A major bridge over a canal near tensioned, pre-tension box girders, I– Doraha, just south of Sanehwal girders have also been developed.
5.84 Based on the data provided and subsequent inspection by train and site visits the proposals made for the bridges are generally in order. At some places there is a possibility to reduce the number of spans at multi-span bridges by combining spans.
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5.85 It is understood that an independent Structural Engineering Consultant has been engaged by DFCCIL to prepare General Arrangement drawings for all major bridges.
5.86 Most rail carrying structures on Indian Railways today carry the rail tracks directly on the superstructure, otherwise known as direct fastening. It is common practice internationally for the track to be supported on ballast over rail carrying structures to give a
smoother ride, ease track maintenance Picture 3.14: Location of proposed Rail over Rail and to reduce noise emanating from flyover, south of Rajpura passing rail traffic.
Detours and grade separation –
5.87 Detours are planned at Hapur, Meerut, Ambala and Sirhind. At Tapri and Rajpura grade separation is required to allow the DFC to pass over existing rail corridors.
5.88 Associated with these detours and grade separations is the necessity to accommodate existing infrastructure in the form of highways, district roads, nalas and other watercourses.
5.89 To provide these facilities rail-over-rail flyovers, RUBs and minor bridges are required although at this stage drawings Picture 3.16: An example of the length of approach ramp and its impact on commercial and of the individual proposed structures are domestic properties situated along the edges of the highway not available.
5.90 In considering the various locations where rail-over-rail flyovers are to be constructed it would seem that they are likely to be multi-span viaducts crossing not only other rail routes but other obstructions in close proximity such as nalas and highways.
• At Hapur, the rail-over-rail flyover crosses the Delhi to Moradabad rail line and an adjacent nala.
• At Meerut, the rail-over-rail flyover Picture 3.18: Lack of geometry and safe access to crosses the Ghaziabad to Meerut the ROB rail line.
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• At Tapri, the rail-over-rail flyover passes over a branch line.
• At Ambala, the flyover passes over National Highway NH1 and immediately passes over the Delhi to Ambala rail line.
• At Rajpura, the rail-over-rail flyover passes over the IR railway to Ludhiana.
• Finally at Sirhind, the flyover passes over an adjacent watercourse and a rail branch line.
Picture 3.17: An example of the length of Road overbridges – approach ramp at an ROB 5.91 The current proposal is to replace those Level Crossings, where TVUs are in excess of 50,000, with a Road Overbridge (ROB) or a Road Underbridge (RUB). Whereas this seems a sensible solution there are concerns that the project does not fully appreciate the impacts such a proposal imports particularly in busy cities, towns and, perhaps, villages.
5.92 The replacement of Level Crossings on line is likely to have a major impact on the domestic and commercial properties that exist along the route of the existing highway. The length of approach ramp, which carries the highway up from existing ground level to the required elevation to carry the highway over the railway corridor, could be as much as 400m to 500m, depending on local topography. The width of the approach ramp and bridge span require to be in the order of 12.0m to 13.0m to accommodate a two lane carriageway, two footpaths and side Trespassers beneath ROB parapets. The modifications to the existing highways, side roads, lanes etc could result in major changes to the layout of towns with the associated impact and inconvenience to townspeople.
5.93 On the site visits it was noticed that a number of ROBs have been constructed but they had no pedestrian footpaths on the approach ramps or the spans. Because of this and the fact that shops and businesses continue to be located to the side of, or beneath, these ROB approach ramps, pedestrians go about their daily routine as normal but continue to use the locus of the former level crossing to cross from one side of the railway to the other thereby trespassing on IR property. Not only is it pedestrians that promulgate this illegal act but cyclists and motor cyclists.
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5.94 Since no footpath provision has been made on the ROB it would have been prudent to have provided a footbridge with both stair access, for able bodied pedestrians, and ramp access for mobility impaired pedestrians and pedal cyclists. Motorcyclists should be forced to utilise the ROB as the means of crossing the railway, safely.
5.95 However, it can be understood, but not condoned, why motorcyclists continue to risk their safety by crossing the railway at rail level. There is no means of traffic control or Picture 3.19: Lack of geometry and safe access to the ROB acceptable geometry to allow a safe vehicular movement from these “new” side streets onto the ROB.
5.96 At another new ROB site, the Consultant came across a further example where a road junction, apparently not in accordance with Indian Highway Standards, had been recently constructed leaving the road user with no alternative but to block both sides of the highway as a turn is made on to the ROB approach ramp. It is observed that in the case of new ROB construction sufficient attention be made to design and construction quality controls by coordination between DFCCIL/IR and the State public works departments in the planning and execution stages.
5.97 Although not a ROB, a further example of the lack of safe pedestrian provision at a RUB, and the lack of alternative means of safe pedestrian movements across the railway leaves no alternative but for trespass.
5.98 As demonstration of the potential social and community impacts of the construction of ROBs in cities two examples are given. It has to be emphasised that these are not definitive solutions but merely give examples of these impacts principally in terms of
highway design. Picture 3.20: Lack of pedestrian facilities through an RUB Example 1, Level Crossing LX 27, Meerut City
5.99 Level Crossing 27 is located immediately North of Meerut City Station. The immediately surrounding area is relatively open with the land to the north-west in military ownership.
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Ludhiana
Highway Rail corridor
LX 27
Highway Railway Quarters
Meerut City Station
Figure 3.21: The site of LX 27, Meerut City
5.100 When a highway option is overlayed on this location it can immediately be seen what the impact is on the community particularly at the extreme left of the layout. The alignment shown assumes the new highway will be built on the current alignment.
5.101 To provide the facility for road users to gain access back towards the rail corridor to allow access to the Railway Quarters at Meerut City or to gain access to the military area immediately west of the level crossing, new highway junction(s) are required.
5.102 Similarly, on the east side of the railway, to allow road users to gain access to the properties either side of the highway, new road junctions will be required.
5.103 A general highway layout proposal is given in the following figure.
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New road Junctions Rail corridor
Railway Quarters
New road Junction Meerut City Station
Figure 3.22: LX 27, Meerut City Potential highway layout and impacts
Example 2, Level Crossing LX 56, Muzzafarnagar
5.104 Level Crossing 56 is located in the northern suburbs of Muzzafarnagar and has been identified for conversion to an ROB.
Ludhiana
Rail corridor LX 56
Highway
Highway Existing ROB
Muzzafarnagar
Figure 3.23: The site of LX 56, Muzzafarnagar
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5.105 As with the previous example, a possible highway layout has been overlayed based on the bridge being constructed on the existing highway alignment.
Rail corridor
Access required to sports ground and dwellings that front the existing highway, both sides. Access required to square and dwellings that front the existing highway, both sides and the surrounding suburbs
Existing ROB
Figure 3.24: LX 56, Muzzafarnagar, Potential highway layout and impacts
5.106 It can be seen from the figure above that access to the surrounding public spaces and households is extremely difficult to provide without major impacts on the surrounding highway network. Some of the roads in the suburbs are likely to suffer an increase in usage as a result in the changes to vehicle distribution due to the impacts that the new ROB, its approach viaducts and highway layout changes import. Clearly, those dwellings that front the existing highway could be severely affected and may require to be acquired.
5.107 An independent Structural Engineering Consultant has been engaged by DFCCIL to prepare General Arrangement drawings for all sites where a Level Crossing is proposed to be replaced by an ROB.
5.108 During discussions with the DFCCIL representatives, it is understood that IR will be financing the cost of the works associated with the construction of ROBs out of the safety budgets specifically created for the purpose.
5.109 Some level crossing replacement projects Picture 3. 25 : ROB under construction near have already begun under the responsibility of IR and the State Governments. These sites have taken into account the future DFC alignment in their design. However, these projects would appear to be undertaken at the more straightforward sites and not in busy town centres. They are generally being
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constructed on the outskirts of towns where land is more available and social and community impacts are low.
5.110 The Level Crossings along the route have been assessed in accordance with DFCCIL criteria for replacement with a ROB/RUB. As the route has been assessed for the location of Crossing Stations any level crossing within its length has also been included for replacement by an ROB/RUB.
Station Locations and Wayside Halts –
5.111 The DFCCIL proposed alignment is generally parallel with the existing IR alignment. As the route passes along it is required to pass by wayside halts and stations. The proposal for these locations is for the alignment to generally pass behind stations and for a pedestrian underpass or footbridge to be provided to allow access to the station platform(s).
Hydrology
5.112 It was found during the site visit that in some bridges over waterways, availability of freeboard is not adequate. In those instances formation levels will require to be raised to provide the appropriate freeboard space beneath to meet the standards required of the Irrigation Board.
5.113 Existing bridge structures along the route are a clear indication of the approximate locations where the DFCCIL will be required to construct similar or augmented structures to carry the DFC over or under an obstruction.
5.114 The DFCCIL alignment drawings including the aerial mapping drawings for the alignments at Tapri and Ambala and have been assessed to determine the number of RUBs and flyovers involved in the project.
5.115 Due to the level of detail available within the DFCCIL alignment design drawings and the lack of accurate mapping at a reasonably accurate scale available from the Survey of India not all minor bridges will have been included in the totals allowed for. It should be recognised that the list of minor bridges may have to be amended especially over detour and grade separated areas of alignment.
5.116 The Consultant assessment of bridge structures is given in the Bridges Schedule in the Appendices in Volume 4 to this report. This is summarised below:
Structure type Number Important Bridges 3 Minor Bridges 381 Major Bridges 81 ROBs a) ROBs under construction 15 b) ROBs required as per Norms 82 c) ROBs required at DFCCIL Stations 17 RUBs 46 Tunnels 1 Pedestrian underpasses* 42 Footbridges 10 Existing ROB alterations 5
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5.117 Today, Indian Railways major bridges are constructed of truss girders or plate girders. There is an example of a more modern form of construction where precast prestressed box girders have been used.
5.118 DFCCIL’s library of standard designs is compiled of predominantly precast prestressed concrete bridge beams and box girders. This would demonstrate DFCCIL’s wish to use more modern forms of construction for their small to medium span structures.
5.119 Large span structures up to 76.0m have been designed by DFCCIL and comprise both truss and plate girders.
5.120 The standard bridge structure superstructures would appear to be functional.
5.121 In considering the structure requirements level crossing in excess of 50,000 TVUs have been proposed as being replaced by ROB as have those level crossings that are located within the limits of proposed crossing stations.
5.122 A number of level crossings have TVU values close to 50,000. Although below DFCCIL’s threshold for replacement it is suggested that these be considered for replacement by ROB as the TVUs are likely to increase over time most certainly within the project timeframe.
5.123 Flyovers are likely to be constructed as long viaducts capable of spanning more than the rail corridors they are constructed to pass over. It is suggested that they be as long as reasonably practicable to ensure that they cater for any adjacent highway or watercourse. This has the benefit of reducing the footprint, reduces the embankment fill required and helps to reduce the social impact of the proposal. It will also ensure that impacts on agricultural land are minimised.
5.124 At proposed Crossing Stations, bridges extant within the limits will necessarily be required to accommodate three tracks as a minimum. Where a Maintenance Depot is added to a crossing station, bridge structures will require to be wide enough to cater for all tracks.
5.125 Noise from the DFC is considered to be an issue particularly at rail carrying bridge structures and through heavily built up areas. It is proposed that all new rail carrying structures have ballasted track for better track maintenance and in an effort to reduce noise pollution.
5.126 In the case of steel railway bridges it is generally necessary to consider both airborne sound from the train rolling along the bridge and structure borne sound from the vibration generated at the wheel rail interface propagating into the bridge structure from the rail.
5.127 When rail and sleepers are attached directly to the bridge deck of supporting frames, the vibration generated at the wheel-rail interface is transferred directly to the bridge structure with very little attenuation. Since most steel bridges are deliberately lightweight structures, the vibration is radiated as noise efficiently, which can lead to a considerable increase in noise levels as a train passes over the bridge.
5.128 Structure borne sound can be reduced by vibration isolation. By having a ballasted track on the bridge deck, the ballast provides a layer of crude vibration isolation between the rails and the bridge deck that reduces the level of vibration transmitted to the bridge structure. This reduces the amount of noise radiated by the bridge structure during the passage of a train. Resilient elements under the baseplate below the sleeper or under the ballast can also be beneficial, with the latter generally being most effective (and costly). A ballast mat is generally an elastomeric pad of the order of 25mm placed between the bridge deck and the ballast. The pad helps prevent the vibration due to the passage of a train from propagating through the ballast to the bridge deck.
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5.129 Vibration damping material can be applied to the bridge structure to reduce the resonant response of the bridge. Modal analysis would be required to determine the optimum positions for such a treatment.
5.130 Actual reduction in noise levels will depend on the particular bridge structure, and other factors such as ballast depth and rail pad stiffness will have an effect on the levels of noise radiated by the bridge.
5.131 Noise barriers can be erected at the side of the track at the top of embankments as a tool to collect noise and to stop it percolating to the surrounding sensitive areas.
5.132 Noise pollution is a topic that will require to be assessed by the environmental team to identify receptors and to work with the District or State Environmental Department to identify acceptable noise levels and means of reducing noise pollution.
5.133 Some of the major bridges are multi- span, some as many as 15 spans. These structures are notionally flood spans which allow flood water to pass
from one side of the railway to the other Picture 3.27: Example of a structure that may be so as to ensure that the rail better constructed of a single span as opposed embankment doesn’t restrict water flow to three. to its detriment and become a dam. It is felt that such structures could have the number spans reduced to reduce construction work and to reduce future maintenance at these structures. An impact of this proposal may be the need to increase the height of the embankment to cater for a deeper construction depth but, as can be seen from the picture opposite, some structures have more than adequate headroom.
5.134 As the route was traversed on the Train Inspection a number of bridge structures were located on what appeared to be detours. These detours are likely to be at sites where IR required to reconstruct a bridge due to a need for strengthening. The easiest option being to construct a new bridge on a new alignment.
5.135 The Alignment section of this report identifies the possible option to reuse the former Indian Railways alignment at sites where IR has detoured to construct stronger structures. This type of option has the potential to reuse IR land and save the need to acquire the amount of Picture 3.28: An example of a site where DFCCIL wish to locate their alignment to the Left of the land that DFCCIL are currently proposing. lattice structure which is a replacement for the This option suggests the reinstatement of former, assumed weak, structure. The old structure the former IR alignment with DFCCIL can be seen to the right hand side of the existing building a new bridge for IR with DFCCIL bridge utilising the current IR alignment and bridge. This is demonstrated in sketch form in the Appendices of Volume 4 of this report.
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5.136 To meet the aspirations of the DFCCIL Business Plan the consultant recommends that rail carrying structures be designed and constructed to carry a double track railway from the outset. Although the DFC will commence service as a single track railway and that it may be some time before a double track, it is felt beneficial to do this both financially and from a social and environmental point of view.
Rail Breather or Expansion Joints –
5.137 An area to be investigated is the need for expansion joints in CWR and in particular before switches installed in the track layout. Examples of current practices on Queensland Rail and by Rio Tinto, a private railway owner in Western Australia, are especially relevant. Both of these companies have similar climatic conditions to India in that they have railways in tropical regions and encounter air temperatures in the region of 45 oC to 55 oC, they have continuous welded rail track and carry extremely long, heavy train loads of minerals long distances. Like India, the track is predominantly straight although Rio’s layout has a number of compound curves and helical configurations for grade separation.
5.138 The policy of both Queensland Rail and Rio Tinto is not to install rail breathers (expansion joints). To compensate, when they install track, they stress the rails such that they are stress free at a rail temperature of 37 oC to 40 oC. The track structure is also very heavy with 60kg/m rails supported on concrete sleepers at close centres. The ballast shoulder conditions are also well maintained with an adequate weight of ballast on the ground. This all helps to resist the tendency for the track to buckle and negates need for rail breathers.
5.139 The use of Expansion Joints in Indian Railways primarily in front of switch and crossing work has prevailed for some number of years. From an international perspective this practice is not required as long as a heavy track construction is utilised and good ballast conditions prevail. However, it will still be necessary to incorporate expansion joints into the track system at long bridge structures in order to cater for different expansion and contraction characteristics of the track and bridge structures.
Rail lengths –
5.140 For most maintenance and renewal works today in India, rails are supplied to IR in lengths of 13.0m. These rails are then taken to a Flash Butt Welding Yard where these individual lengths are welded together to make rails of 39.0m long or up to 260.0m in length. These rails are then taken to site where they are further lengthened by either Alumino Thermit Welding or by use of the mobile Flash Butt Welding Plant.
5.141 SAIL (Steel Authority of India Ltd.) have been producing 260.0m long rails for approximately 4 years supplying primarily the Central Railway Zone of Indian Railways. Until recently Northern Railways Zone, the network adjacent to which the Ludhiana to Khurja corridor is aligned was unable to take advantage of 260.0m long rails as they did not own suitable wagons on which to transport the rails to their zone. Recently though, a rake of 260.0m rails was sent to Kathua in Northern Railway Zone utilising new rolling stock.
5.142 SAIL’s rail plant is in Bhilai and is located in the centre of India. The haulage distance to Khurja is approximately 2000km.
5.143 Now with Northern Railways having suitable rolling stock in their fleet the supply of 260.0m long rails to this project should not be an issue. However, depending on wagon utilisation the DFCCIL may need to purchase or lease their own rolling stock for carrying such rail lengths to site from the steelworks plant in Bhilai.
Infrastructure construction –
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5.144 The need for fast efficient construction processes has been accelerated over the past decade or more as many countries have expanded and upgraded their transport systems.
5.145 Highway projects have led the way in this area with Motorways and Expressways emerging as the existing road networks became congested and town centres became pedestrianised offering greater public safety in an environment with less pollution. The transport of goods by road has demanded better road networks with more capacity to accommodate the ever increasing volume of heavy goods vehicles carrying increasingly heavier loads.
5.146 To meet this demand for more faster and efficient rail routes, construction practices have evolved through the experience gained by contractors who worked more in the highways sector. Generally, rail projects can be split into two areas; (i) Civil and Structures including earthworks and, (ii) Rail systems including track, Signalling & Telecommunication, OLE and small plant.
5.147 The first comprises mostly the large contractors who work on highways building earthworks, bridge structures, Picture 3.29: Civil engineering work almost small buildings, drainage etc. The second complete
is a more specialised type of contractor with a specialist capability.
5.148 In a project such as the dedicated freight corridor from Khurja to Ludhiana, it is proposed that a number of Civil Engineering contractors will build the earthworks, drainage and structures finishing at top of formation, or blanket level.
5.149 The systems contractor would then follow on and install the track, Overhead traction power systems and finally install the signalling & telecommunications systems. This contractor would be responsible for the testing & commissioning of the system Picture 3.30: Temporary track laying in progress to ensure that it worked in a safe and
efficient manner.
5.150 In terms of large bridge structures, there are number of methods capable of being deployed for their construction; incremental build, launching, lump-in. With respect to this corridor, there a number of irrigation canals over which the route passes. It is likely that the best method of construction here would be to launch the structure.
5.151 Although the route passes over a number of major rivers, when on the site Picture 3.31: A bridge launch over a busy rail junction inspections these were noticed to be in Antwerp, Belgium
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almost dry. This is as a result of the main water flow being diverted into the irrigation canals. However, it has to be borne in mind that if conditions dictate, large volumes of water could conceivably flow down these rivers. Construction should be planned around the area’s historical weather patterns such that superstructure works are completed during the dry season. Based on an almost dry river bed, these structures could be constructed of individual simply supported spans with each beam or deck being installed utilising cranes.
5.152 As part of the construction process temporary construction sites are required. In this project there are likely to be four large compounds required for the Civil Engineering contractors to set up offices for the management team and stores for general work items of plant.
5.153 At individual major and important bridge Picture 3.32: A bridge construction site, crane erection sites, large construction areas will be required on both banks of the river or canal. Similarly at rail-over-rail flyover sites. These construction areas are required to provide offices for the site management team, to provide washing, changing and messing for the construction workers, working areas, material storage, plant storage and most importantly vehicle and worker circulation areas to ensure safe working practices.
5.154 To facilitate the construction work access from the main highways and state highways will be required. Generally this is readily available except for the portion of the route from Jagadhri to Ambala. This length of corridor is only accessed by small village roads suitable for small vehicles and animal drawn carts.
5.155 In the Ambala to Jagadheri area special roads will require to be constructed temporarily to provide access to the work sites. This part of the corridor section is the area where two of the three important bridges are located over the Markhanda and Tagri rivers. These two structures alone will require large prefabricated pieces of bridge to be brought onto site by road vehicles with erection by large cranes maybe capable of lifting 1000tonnes or so.
Construction observations –
5.156 It cannot be emphasised enough that the Ludhiana to Khurja Dedicated Freight Corridor Project is a mega construction project that will require enormous resources in terms of manpower, labour, plant and materials.
5.157 There are in excess of 400km of infrastructure to design, construct, test Picture 3.33: A large systems construction and and implement in a timeframe that does management compound on LGV Est, France not have much slack. Programme management will be a key aspect of this project.
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5.158 The logistics of constructing such a project in terms of size and complexity are extremely complicated and intertwined. To meet the project timescale it will be essential to have exceptionally good planning and management skills on board but it will also require the most modern of construction techniques to ensure fast and effective construction. The need for fast routes for construction traffic will be a major hurdle to overcome in this tight route corridor through some of the most densely populated States in India.
5.159 It is essential that fully functional construction sites are set up at the large structure works not only to ensure adequate storage and construction space but also to house the management team and the construction workers.
5.160 Modern mechanised construction plant has to be utilised and maintained properly to ensure smooth continuous operation.
Recommendation
5.161 The top most layers of soils along the route length are deemed to be unsuitable as either founding materials for structures or for the construction of earthworks. In order to reuse as much of this material as possible in the earthworks for the DFC, the Consultant recommends that DFCCIL put in place, as soon as possible, research into the design mix of soils and other materials that will provide a fill material that has the strength characteristics required for the earthworks.
5.162 The legal position regarding the integrity of the IR earthwork and the relationship between IR and DFCCIL should be clarified as soon As possible in order for the design specification for the earthworks can be finalised and a preliminary design prepared based on the agreed criteria.
5.163 The alignment route requires the construction of new bridges and the extension of existing bridge structures to accommodate the new track. These bridges will be predominantly rail carrying, however a number of Road Overbridges (ROB) will be required to replace level crossings that have high TVU counts or that are located within the limits of crossing stations.
5.164 The consultant recommends that those level crossings to be converted to ROBs should be advised to IR, the funding body for this aspect of the project, at the earliest opportunity to put in motion the preparation of a programme including the application for funding, the preparation of designs and contract documents, the tendering process and finally the construction works. This is necessary as the enormity of the task and the timescale constraints to have this work completed to meet the commencement date for service provision, cannot be over emphasised.
5.165 On detour and grade separator alignments, the consultant recommends that standard designs be developed with the use of viaduct in place of embankment and bridge structure format to reduce the local impact in terms of land acquisition and socio-environmental. For similar reasons, embankments in parallel with the IR network higher than 4.0m are also recommended for replacement by viaduct construction.
5.166 Major bridges over canals are recommended to be constructed in steel plate girder with composite decks in an effort to reduce construction depth and ease of construction. The opportunity should also be taken to use more modern designs for
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truss structures over important rivers.
5.167 New ROBs are recommended to have incorporated the facility to accommodate pedestrians by the provision of footpaths. Where footpaths are not provided a footbridge with stairs and ramps should be provided for safe pedestrian and cycle access across the rail corridor.
5.168 Ballasted track should be utilised on all rail carrying structures to reduce noise from rail – wheel interface.
5.169 At former level crossing sites, robust anti-trespass fencing should be provided over a substantial length in an effort to dissuade potential trespassers.
5.170 At minor bridges up to 1.0m opening, consideration should be given utilising corrugated pipe as opposed to concrete box sections for quicker and easier construction.
5.171 The practice of installing expansion joints into permanent way crossing layouts is not international best practice. With a heavy track construction, as specified for the DFC, this would be adequate to control the potential for track buckling. The consultant recommends therefore that this general IR practice be re-considered.
5.172 The use of 260.0m long rails has been introduced over the last 4 years or more. With Northern Railway Zone having its own modern rolling stock for the transport of this length of rail, the consultant recommends that 260.0m long rails be utilised throughout the corridor.
5.173 Construction - India is at a point in its infrastructure development where it needs to embrace international best practice in construction. This is required to allow it to meet its goals in terms of being recognised as a global player in the business world.
5.174 India’s infrastructure is planned to be brought up to date with vast highway improvement plans afoot. However, the Survey and setting out Minister of Railways also wants to pin attached develop the Dedicated Freight Corridors to mast to allow her to play her part in ensuring the success of the overall plan.
5.175 To ensure the success of the Dedicated Freight Corridor project and in particular the section of the route being studied here, it is essential that only the best contractors with the correct managerial structure and construction pedigree who utilise the most modern of construction and systems installation techniques should be given the opportunity to participate in this project.
5.176 To ensure that the highways portfolio doesn’t attract the best negotiations should be put in place immediately with The Best to ensure that they are planning to increase their workforce to Picture 3.34:. Setting out station on OLE mast be able to undertake these mega projects.
5.177 The construction should be undertaken utilising modern 3D design which can be taken out onto the field and given to the construction team in the knowledge that the project is “under
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control”. The use of 3D design will aid in the future for maintenance when the maintainer will have the comfort of knowing what he has to do to keep things within the design.
5.178 The 3D design will assist in the installation of the systems as the track and OLE structures are intrinsically interlinked with the masts being used as survey targets for the track installer.
5.179 This project is the best and only the best should be employed on its construction.
Section 3 Signalling
Scope
5.180 This section of the report describes the signalling and train dispatch/control arrangements from Khurja to Ludhiana as determined by the DFCCIL following earlier DFC concept reports. It describes the proposed train management, safety and dispatch system, arrangements at crossing stations and issues associated with level crossings along the corridor. Commentary from both DFCCIL and the Consultant are given with a final concluding part containing Consultant recommendations.
Description
5.181 The DFCCIL project is for new infrastructure to carry the projected freight traffic flows with origins and destinations principally from within the Indian Railway network. Keeping this objective in view, the engineering solutions have to be provided to ensure that the infrastructure is made available for operations to know where a train load is at any one time, carry the projected traffic with minimum initial investment, least operational cost and in the minimum time frame. The proposed system should be flexible to meet with the future growth of traffic without change in technology. In addition it should facilitate the DFCCIL management to provide the online information for this section as an integrated part of the complete corridor, permitting access as appropriate for its customers. In the present study it is observed that, although the project will require a large overall investment by DFCCIL, decisions on signalling issues at this time have not been finalised or fully substantiated by rigorous analysis. This section of corridor provides an opportunity for a step-change in technological approach by Indian Railways in a controlled and measured way to provide the confidence needed to present operations personnel with the communications and customer service benefits to be had.
5.182 A standard Signalling plan prepared by DFCCIL for a three line Crossing Station has been studied. It has the following features:-
• The signalling system caters for double distant signals as per the current policy followed by Indian Railways.
• Universal simultaneous reception facilities on both sides of the loop line are proposed.
• Two sidings 160.0m long, connected with a hot axle siding, have been provided on either side of the station.
• The points between the siding and hot axle siding are proposed to be hand operated.
• The proposed loop length is 695 metres from starter to starter, 750 metres from starter to fouling mark for main line and 750 metres for loop lines.
• The layout has considered extension of loop lines to 1500 metres in the future to cater for longer length trains.
• Block proving by Axle counters has been included.
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• Electronic Interlocking has been proposed with a distributed system.
• Track circuiting of the station yard is proposed with AFTC/Axle Counters.
• Calling On signals are proposed on reception signals to receive trains in case the berthing tracks are occupied or due to failure of track circuits.
• All level crossings are proposed to be power operated with facility for hand generator.
DFCCIL Commentary
5.183 Previous reports recommended provision of Automatic Block signalling with spacing of stations every 40km for the double line portion (821km) of the adjoining corridor between Khurja and Sonnagar. For the single line section, proposals are for a three line crossing station at every 10km between Khurja and Sanehwal with Absolute Block working between the stations for train operation. At the time of study the DFCCIL signalling proposals were compatible to the RITES and JICA report proposals.
Consultant Commentary
5.184 It is well understood that signalling and train operations are intrinsically interlinked. The prime role of any signalling system is safety. This is achieved by maintaining safe separation between trains travelling at maximum permitted speeds on the same line or in opposing direction. Optimisation of such safe systems however, require detailed analysis of the complete railway – its traction power, braking characteristics, track gradients, crossing speeds etc. as well as the physical signalling parameters (sighting/location) and integral performance of the signalling and telecommunications system itself. Optimisation of the complete railway, however, requires more than hand-drafted or empirical data manipulation for higher speed railways. It requires each asset type to have its characteristics modelled electronically. Such modelling, once carried out can be readily updated or re-run to permit alternative layouts or operational scenarios. Modern international practice is to utilise computer simulation modelling for this exercise. Such modelling should not be considered as basic verification of system design but rather optimisation of asset arrangements by way of technological upgrade. The studies will permit step by step operations information for infrastructure enhancements to be made in line capacity; reduction in operational costs and reductions in capital investment by providing the minimum number of tracks and crossing/turn-outs, be it at stations or in the block section.
5.185 It is considered that by adoption of a simulation study, the present 10km station spacing will be able to be increased and provide the opportunity for cost reduction. In this regard it is estimated that the rough cost of signalling alone could be reduced by some 8% to 10%.
5.186 The proposed signalling scheme is in conformity with the current practices of Indian Railways. The following minor changes based on discussions with DFCCIL are recommended.
5.187 Two hot axle sidings on either end of the yard along with 160 metre sidings are not necessary. Only two sidings with 160 metre length of track on either end of the yard can, meet the requirement of DFCCIL. These sidings are required for stabling Track machines and can also be used for hot axle detachment which may happen infrequently.
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5.188 Under this arrangement the hand operated points would be deleted. Colour Light signals should be LED lit for increased reliability.
5.189 Track circuiting with Multi Entry Axle Counters is recommended. DC track circuits are less reliable due to their dependence on requirement of excellent ballast conditions and glued joints. Civil Engineers prefer to avoid glued joints as it affects parameters of long welded rails and are also prone to failures due to loose packing of track and creep of rails. Audio Frequency Track Circuits (AFTC) is the next choice which does not require glued joints. However, AFTC perform best when both the rails are available for track circuiting. In IR, one of the rails is used for traction earth return and this reduces the track length for AFTC track circuits. In addition the track bonds also pose reliability problems because of theft and breakage due to track machines, ballast cleaning or other interferences. Accordingly Multi Entry Axle Counters in station yards as well as in the block section are a better option. The consultant signalling estimate is, as a result, based on this choice.
5.190 Power operated barriers can be provided with emergency key chain arrangement as prevalent in Western Railway. The arrangement is useful in case of breakage of barrier, wherein key chain is spread by the gate man and the same is mechanically locked at the other end of the gate. It provides the facility of clearing the railway signal leading to the level crossing in case of damage to barrier or for routine maintenance, but with a caveat of clearing only to a yellow signal thus pre-warning the train driver to be cautious and also ensuring safety of the road users.
Issues of concern with the proposed scheme
5.191 It is observed by the consultant that the existing Absolute Block methods of signalling and dispatching as currently applied on IR will be inadequate for operation of this single line section of the Eastern DFC. Moreover with the proposed arrangement DFCCIL will start operations with the handicaps outlined below.
5.192 With stations every 10 km, about 40 new stations (35 crossing stations, four junction stations and one terminal station) will have to be commissioned. All these stations will require to be manned around the clock. A set of three operating staff (one station master and two points men with rest giver and leave reserve), would need a staff strength of 13 persons at each station. This will require deployment of more than 500 new operational staff for the corridor. With an average cost per employee at Rs 3 lakh per year, DFCCIL has to bear the burden of
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operational expenses of Rs 15 Crore per year, which will affect the rate of return on a section which is being provided with single line section because of less initial traffic.
5.193 For each crossing, additional time for block operation and clearance of signals up to some 5-7 minutes will be required. It may also vary due to attentiveness of the station staff. This will reduce the line capacity of the section and increase the running time due to the extra time needed for crossing of trains. Not only will the signalling headways required to sustain the numbers of TEWPD be unachievable with ABS, operation of the train service will require a very high degree of coordination due to its intensity over the most heavily used part of the route, between Khurja and Kalanaur, and the need to monitor and manage crossing movements very precisely at crossing stations as well as provide uninterrupted access to junction yards. Due to close proximity of stations being 10 km apart, the likelihood of train crossing at every station is high. This will restrict trains to run continuously at the designed speed of 100 kph and thus the average expected speed of trains is not likely to be more than 35 kph. This will restrict the line capacity as under:
• Proposed length of block section is 10 km
• Time required to clear one block section= 60/35*10 = 17.14 minutes
• Head way between two trains= 17.14 + 5 = 22.14 minutes
• Expected number of trains per day in 20 hrs considering maintenance block of 4 hours= 1200/22.4*0.7= 37.5 or say 38 trains; meaning 19 trains each way.
5.194 This falls short of total projected traffic of 66 trains per day between Khurja – Kalanaur. In normal cases of this type of traffic, Indian Railways have been adopting simple arrangement of doubling the track though with much higher investment rather than resort to better signalling options which are now available at economical prices.
5.195 Examination of alternative scheme - The Consultant have considered initially a wide variety of signalling and control mechanisms and procedures applicable to Single Lines, amongst which have been:
• Centralised Traffic Control (with line side signalling and either track circuits or axle counters).
• Tokenless Block with Direction levers.
• Automatic Block signalling.
• Radio Electronic Token Block (RETB).
5.196 Other more advanced methods of control with particularly sophisticated requirements for communications such as ERTMS (being developed for application within Western Europe) were also considered briefly but have not been taken further. It is the consultant’s view that they are unlikely to obtain approval from RDSO within any meaningful timescale given previous evidence of a lack of enthusiasm on the part of RDSO for non IR established practice.
5.197 Centralised Traffic Control System - The DFCCIL has planned to provide Train Management System (TMS) in central location to monitor the movement of all trains as well as monitor various maintenance parameters like:
• Automatic preparation of Control Charts for actual train running.
• Equipment failures.
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• Drivers passing signal at danger.
• Providing maintenance blocks.
• Optimising use of crew.
• On line statistical data for train operations.
• Provision of a large display in the control room for visual movements of the trains at a glance for the entire section.
5.198 TMS basically is a scaled down version of CTC with virtually the same hardware. Whilst acknowledging the need for continuing to review and refine the proposals, the consultant is currently of the view that CTC (with no “dark territory” as it is sometimes referred to, as being without line side signalling) with reliance on axle-counters to prove track occupation and clearance is likely to present the best solution for the single line section of the Eastern DFC. The arrangement while proving all the features required for TMS will enable remote operation of all stations on the section with following distinct benefits:-
• No operational staff at stations will be necessary. The stations can remain normally locked and only used in case of emergency operations in the event of failure of CTC remote operations.
• The station equipment can be locally operated in case of emergency and for maintenance. These emergency operations can be performed by mobile unit of signalling staff who can be permitted by CTC operator through exchange of commands from the CTC centre and the concerned station.
• Time of 5- 7 minutes required for crossing a train in manual operation is eliminated. It gets reduced to less than 30 seconds, the time required to operate the point machines and sending commands for clearance of block operation and signals.
• Computerised system of CTC can assist in planning of train operations by prioritising the train movements in either loaded direction or unloaded direction as per requirement and make self corrections as per actual train running without taxing the CTC operator.
• With CTC other advantages are also likely to accrue particularly in the area of degraded operations as dynamic re-planning of the service timetable can be achieved and requirements disseminated rapidly.
• For the above configuration, one CTC operator for the entire section of 400km would be adequate, but the consultant recommends having two positions so that in case of heavy traffic or in case of emergencies, the unaffected section can be properly taken care of.
5.199 Based on the above analysis, the Consultant has concluded that CTC with the features of TMS is essential for the viability of the project; the signalling estimates have incorporated the estimate with these features.
5.200 Block working - As mentioned earlier, DFCCIL has planned to work this section with absolute block working system for the entire section between Ludhiana to Khurja.
5.201 The absolute block system in single line section necessarily requires block operation between the two adjacent stations. DFCCIL has proposed tokenless block working. The conventional tokenless block instruments have to be provided at each station for the station staff to manually operate for granting/ obtaining line clear and then link it with station signalling system to take off advance starter for sending the train and home signal for receiving the train. In view of the team’s proposal for CTC operation of signalling system from remote CTC
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centre, the signalling system has to cater for the block operation also remotely. Accordingly the proposed Electronic Interlocking system is provided with inbuilt tokenless block working between the stations. The arrangement is capable of fulfilling all the conditions of granting line clear in the single line section.
5.202 The absolute block system as currently proposed has the limitation of being able to run only one train in the block section however long that block section is made. The absolute block system is a safe low-technology system adequate for operations where the lack of a consistent timetable is not an issue. It is not a solution for train operations in a modern railway network. For increasing capacity in a consistently timetabled manner for any railway system, automatic block operation is the first option before, for example upgrading a single line section to double line or providing additional lines beyond double line operation. As a result of this concept, the train operations in double line section are able to provide a line capacity of 15 - 20 trains per hour in each direction and 30 - 40 trains each way in 24 hours in single line section.
5.203 In the analysis data for LC Gates, it is observed that there are 189 LC gates in a section of 400 kilometres making an average of one LC gate every two kilometres. Except for 23 LC gates, all are manned. The DFCCIL alignment is proposed to be parallel with the of Northern Railway’s (NR) existing line. This necessarily means that all existing level crossings will need to be inclusive of the DFCCIL track as well. Due to the proximity of the DFCCIL track with that of NR track, grade separation is not feasible. This constraint and also the much higher line speed of 100 kph, has ensured that safety at the LC gates has emerged as a major issue in this study.
5.204 The Consultant has deliberated various options and also obtained the views of DFCCIL and that of NR during the field visits. The peculiar situation necessitates an independent study of this issue which has serious effects on train operations; safety and social impact on the local population particularly those LC gates passed in the city areas are deeply affected. Each LC gate has independent issues which require resolution. In the limited time available with the study timeframe, such a study was not feasible. However, some of the important issues concerning the LC Gates have been studied and are summarised in the next few paragraphs.
5.205 All the LC gates operating in the section should be manned.
5.206 There are 11 gates with TVU’s of less than 1500 per day. These gates need to be studied closely and deliberated with the local decision makers, whether they can be closed or combined with adjacent level crossings or any other technical solution can be provided. Such a decision cannot be taken on the basis of TVU’s alone.
5.207 Based on the TVU’s provided to the consultant and in accordance with the existing norms of the railways, 97 LC gates need to be covered by Road Over or Road under bridges. For any train operator the most ideal situation is not to have any LC Gate in its route, which however is not practical in densely populated areas of Khurja Ludhiana section. Even to construct 97 ROB’s in the time frame of DFCCIL is highly unlikely as each ROB would pose a different social and environmental problems.
5.208 DFCCIL has advised that out of 189 LC gates, ROB work is in progress at 15 LC gates. The team has taken a conservative view that the balance 175 LC gates may continue to exist when the DFCCIL track is ready for operation although 81 of 174 LC gates deserve to be with ROB. The opening and closing of the LC gates is decided by the station master’s with whom these LC gates are attached. Normally the station master would give priority to the trains so that they can keep to the time table. This method results in undue delay to the road user which at times is between 20 -40 minutes. In case the DFCCIL railway line has also to operate through the same LC gates, the problems of road users will only aggravate. Considering
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these problems, the consultant has concluded that all the LC gates in the section should be interlocked till they are converted to ROB/ RUB.
5.209 In order to avoid undue delay in opening and closing of the interlocked gates, they should be made independent from the station master’s control. The gate man should get automatic indication of the approaching train which should provide him sufficient time to close the gate and clear the train signals.
5.210 The interlocked LC gate in the double distant territory has gate signals spread to 4.36 kilometres of the LC gate. Since the LC gates are on the average two kilometres away, the gate signals of LC gates would overlap with each other as explained in the figure below.
5.211 While this may resolve the problem of road users, but can result in confusion to the train drivers when they see large number of train signals spread out unevenly and many of them being permissive signals.
5.212 With the above in view, it is a necessity that the section Khurja- Ludhiana though a single line section need not have absolute block system and instead should be provided with automatic block system.
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5.213 The automatic signals can be installed in the block section between two stations at a inter signal spacing of 1.7 km. Normally the inter signal distance in four aspect automatic signalling section in IR is one kilometre.
5.214 For trains operating in IR, a braking distance is taken as 1.6 kilometres. Accordingly in aspect control between double yellow to red a distance of 2.0 kilometres is taken. In case it is less than 1.6 kilometres, the previous signal is also restricted to double yellow signal. However in the case of DFCCIL, parameters are different then being followed by IR. The proposed train speeds of freight trains is 100 Kph against current speeds of freight trains of 75kph and the proposed length of trains is 1500 metres against current length of trains of 686 metres. The inter signal distance of 1.7 kilometres is proposed considering that in future DFCCIL may be operating 1500 metre long trains. At that time no change would be called far. Though in single line section overlap is not required, still a further distance of 200 metres is suggested to provide some margin to the train driver. However, with this inter signal distance, the distance between double yellow to red will become 3.4 kilometres against 2.0 kilometres at present in IR. Since this issue is related with braking distances of the train, it is not feasible for this team to conclude the proper aspect control and new braking distances. However, for the present calculations, it is taken as double yellow to red as 3.4 kilometres. It has to be established by DFCCIL along with IR to know the brake power characteristics of the locomotives operating in this section with train lengths of 1500 metres. This issue is relevant not only for Ludhiana to Khurja section but for other sections of DFCCIL sections as well.
5.215 The signals near the station can be at lesser distance say up to 1 kilometre so as to provide near uniform timings between the two signals as the train in this area would either be accelerating or decelerating.
5.216 The signals protecting the LC gate can be located in a manner that it is within 180- 400 metres from the LC gate. Technically LC gate may be at any distance, but the current regulations provide that gate signal should not be more than 400 metres from the gate.
5.217 The equipment (relay room/ power supply etc.) for auto signals can be provided at the LC Gate location so that maintenance of the system is easy and maintenance staff can reach the site quickly. The regulations provide that up to three auto-signals may be controlled from one location. This would mean that up to 5.1km on either side of the LC Gate, the signals can be controlled from that location i.e. total of 10.2km. Since on the average the LC gates in the section are two kilometres apart, there is no likelihood of any auto signals location outside the jurisdiction of LC Gate lodge. So while designing the scheme the auto location equipment and LC gate equipment should be in a common relay room.
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5.218 The likely head way in the auto block between two following trains is calculated below. Due to longer inter-station distances of say 25 km, the average speed of trains is expected to improve from 35 kph assumed with inter-station distances of 10 km. Though it may be quite higher, but for the present it is assumed to be 45 kph.
• For the following train to get green signal, the distance between the two trains ( see the sketch below) would be = 0.7+1.7+1.7+1.7+0.7 = 6.5 km
• Auto Signal Station: The time taken to cover this distance @ average speed of 45 kph= 60/45*6.5 = 8.66 minutes, say 9 minutes.
• The running time for one train in the block section would be= 60/45* 25 = 33.33 minutes or say 34 minutes; for two trains following each other, 34+9 = 43 minutes, for three trains following each other, 34 + 9+9 = 52 minutes, for four trains following each other, 34+9+9+9= 61 minutes, for five trains following each other, 34+9+9+9+9 = 70 minutes, for six train following each other the time becomes 75 minutes.
• Considering two minutes as the reversal time at the station for trains to start in other direction, the opposite side train can start after 36 minutes in case of one train; 45 minutes in case of two trains; 54 minutes in case of three trains and 63 minutes in case of four trains and 72 minutes in case of five trains and 81 minutes in case of group of six trains.
• The efficiency factor of 0.7 which is generally used for manual operations can be better than 0.7 due to provision of CTC and elimination of human intervention considerably. It can be in the range of 0.8- 0. 85.
• The sectional capacity with for 20 hours operation in case of running the trains in groups would be:-
• One train at a time in the block section= 1200/36*0.8 = 26.6 trains
• Two trains following in a group at a time in the block section = 1200/45*0.8* 2 = 42.6 trains
• Three trains following in a group at a time in the block section = 1200/54*0.8* 3 = 53.3 trains
• Four trains following in a group at a time in the block section = 1200/63*0.8* 4 = 61 trains
• Five trains following in a group at a time in the block section = 1200/72*0.8* 5 = 66.6 trains
• Six trains following in a group at a time in the block section = 1200/81*0.8* 6 = 88.9 trains
5.219 The above calculations are indicative and serve to demonstrate the features of the automatic block signalling for enhancing the line capacity.
5.220 The actual throughput of the trains is expected to be better than the above calculations. This can be achieved during the system design with proper location of signals and stations with loop lines is decided more scientifically by use of computer simulation study. The study can assist for properly locating the automatic block signals in the mid section. It has been assumed that inter signal distance should be uniformly 1.7km. However in actual practice, it should be closure say about one kilometre near the stations as the train would either be accelerating or decelerating and will take more time. However in the mid section the train
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may pick up full speed, and provide reduced running time. Such precise timings should form part of the system design through computer simulation where in relevant data for section like gradients, curves, speed restrictions along with the train characteristics like acceleration/ deceleration, locomotive horse power, brake power and train lengths etc. are processed to arrive at inter station distances, number of loop lines at stations, inter signal distances between the auto block signals so that the train timings between each sub section is uniform.
5.221 The Automatic Block signalling will ensure smooth operation of Level crossings and provide the following benefits:
• The gate man would get advance warning for each train movement with the passage of train from a predetermined location. This will enable the gate man to close the gate without consulting the station master and take off the gate signals well in time to ensure that the coming trains gets through signals.
• The road traffic will be delayed for the minimum period say not more than 10 minutes as compared to the 20-30 minutes in most of the manned LC gates.
• All the LC gates would get interlocked and provide enhanced safety at the LC gates.
5.222 With such an arrangement provision of crossing stations at every 10km will not be necessary. Precise number of stations and the crossing loops at stations can be appropriately calculated through computer simulation but a tentative configuration can be as follows:
• Through graphical means it has been established that crossing stations could be provided at approximately every 25km. These could accommodate the required number of train movements stated in the August version of the DFCCIL Draft Business Plan. Under such a scenario locations of these stations have been shown on the 10 km charts prepared for the entire section. It should be noted however that the exact locations in practice will be dependent on a precise operations / signalling simulation study.
• The block section between the stations can be provided with Automatic Block Signalling with Signals every 1.0 km – 1.7km in both directions. After the direction of traffic is established, trains can run one after the other in the same direction and accumulate at one of the stations if so required or go through.
5.223 Centralised Traffic Control (CTC) should have facility for computer planning for prioritisation / precedence’s so that train schedules are prioritized to meet with the operational requirements. The arrangement will enable following clear benefits:
• The delay due to manual operation for block and clearance of signals is eliminated. The station signalling equipment can be operated in less than 30 seconds against 5 - 7 minutes in the manual system. Considering a saving of 4.5 minutes attributed to CTC, for 70 expected trains, it will be 4.5*70 = 315 minutes which is more than 5 hours. It would mean that the section is available for train running for five more hours than with the manual system.
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• Station staff need not be positioned at stations for operation of signalling system. This can be remotely done from a centralised location say at Ambala or any other convenient location between Khurja to Ludhiana. This would avoid operational expenditure of almost Rs 15 Crore per annum.
• In the event of emergency where for any reason the commands from CTC to the field location get interrupted, the signalling maintenance staff in the section can be deputed to visit the concerned station and not only rectify the problem but also operate the signalling panels locally till its rectification.
• Opportunity can be taken to provide remote operation of level crossings from CTC where the traffic volume is low or manning needs to be avoided. Such level crossings can be provided with CCTV cameras and public address system for monitoring and operation. Facility can be provided for road users to request passage of exceptional loads over the level crossing.
5.224 Operation of Level Crossing Gates in conjunction with Northern Railway Zone Network - The train operations of the existing northern railway lines would get affected due to interlocking of all LC gates. Out of the total 189 LC gates in the section, 80 LC gates are interlocked. With 15 ROBs currently under construction, 65 interlocked gates would be affected. In addition, as a result of the proposed interlocking of all the 174 gates, 94 LC gates on northern railway portion would consequently have to be interlocked. This cost has been taken into account in the estimate.
5.225 In order to have uniformity of the signalling system, the existing sections of the northern railway would also need to be provided with automatic signalling system so that all the LC gates have uniform arrangement for gate information for approaching trains. It is recognised however, that northern railway may not be able to meet with this requirement in the timeframe for corridor construction. Until such time as the section is installed with the auto-block signalling system, gatemen will not need to depend on the flow of information of approaching trains from the station masters but by utilising the existing data-loggers already installed in stations. This information flow is provided to the gate men in the following manner:
• When the line clear is obtained by the station master, through the data loggers the information so collected should automatically get transmitted to all the LC gates in the block section through the gate telephone pair.
• When the train actually leaves the station, with the occupation of advance starter track circuit, the data logger system can send information of train approaching to all the LC gates in the section.
• As a standby arrangement, the information can be sent to all LC gates by data loggers of both the adjacent station stations and LC gate system selects any one of the two.
• This coded information can trigger timer at each of the LC gate in the section about the likely time in minutes when the train is expected to arrive at the LC gate. This would give direction to gate man to close the gate and take off the concerned gate signals.
• This time will have to be worked out for individual gate based on the fastest train running in the section. The actual time would be more than the displayed time in case of slow operating train.
• The information of approaching train should also be given to the road users on both sides of the gate informing about the likely arrival of the approaching train at the LC gate, so that they are assured of the likely waiting period.
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• In addition, the data loggers at the each LC gate can log and convey to the adjacent station as well as to CTC operator about the actual closure and opening of the LC gate. This will keep the management informed about the proper functioning of the LC gate.
• Since the LC gates are interlocked a failure of flow of information would not cause any unsafe conditions as in case of non information the train will come and wait at the gate signal.
5.226 The estimates have been prepared taking this requirement into consideration.
Recommendation
5.227 The Train Management System (TMS) proposed by the DFCCIL is effectively a scaled down version of a Centralised Traffic Control (CTC) system with virtually the same hard ware. Whilst this management approach would require further detailed review and refinement the Consultant recommends adoption of CTC (with no “dark territory” as it is sometimes referred to, as being without line side signalling) with reliance on axle-counters to prove track occupation and clearance is likely to present the best solution for the single line section of the Eastern DFC. The arrangement while proving all the features required for TMS will enable remote operation of all stations on the section with following distinct benefits:
• No operational staff at stations will be necessary. The stations can remain normally locked and only used in case of emergency operations in the event of failure of CTC remote operations.
• The station equipment can be locally operated in case of emergency and for maintenance. These emergency operations can be performed by mobile unit of signalling staff who can be permitted by CTC operator through exchange of commands from the CTC centre and the concerned station.
• Time of 5- 7 minutes required for crossing a train in manual operation is eliminated. It gets reduced to less than 30 seconds, the time required to operate the point machines and sending commands for clearance of block operation and signals.
• Computerised system of CTC can assist in planning of train operations by prioritising the train movements in either loaded direction or unloaded direction as per requirement and make self corrections as per actual train running without taxing the CTC operator.
• With CTC other advantages are also likely to accrue particularly in the area of degraded operations as dynamic re-planning of the service timetable can be achieved and requirements disseminated rapidly.
• For the above configuration, one CTC operator for the entire section of Ludhiana to Khurja would be adequate, but the consultant recommends having two positions so that in case of heavy traffic or in case of emergencies, the unaffected section can be fully managed.
5.228 Based on the above analysis, the consultant recommends that CTC with the features of TMS is essential for the viability of the project; the signalling estimates have incorporated the estimate with these features.
5.229 Operation of Level Crossing Gates in conjunction with Northern Railway Zone Network - In order to have uniformity of the signalling system, the existing sections of the northern railway would also need to be provided with automatic signalling system so that all the LC gates have uniform arrangement for gate information for approaching trains.
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5.230 Driver Safety: Signalling Automatic Warning System (AWS) - It is observed that locomotive drivers are not currently provided with any aid for safe operation of trains. The train working will remain dependant on the vigil of the driver. Any mistake of missing signal by a driver is likely to result in accident which will not only affect the DFCCIL operation but can also affect the adjacent IR trains. Only locomotives of IR will be operating in this section. As part of this project, DFCCIL has planned sophisticated signalling systems of CTC/TCS and automatic block signalling on the entire double line section. Most of the new corridor is being provided by the side of the existing railway line. Although IR has not yet adopted train control systems such as AWS to enhance safety of trains against driver error, it is strongly recommended that this form of protection be included as part of this project (and extended for the overall corridor). Since all the corridors are new, a system should not be provided which may jeopardise safety and thus compromise with the main objective of carrying freight traffic speedily to various cities spread all over the country
Section 4 Telecommunication
Scope
5.231 This section of the report describes the telecommunication proposals from Khurja to Ludhiana as determined by the DFCCIL following earlier DFC concept reports. It describes the arrangements for communication links along the corridor and their connections with the proposed train management, safety and dispatch system, and communications with personnel at crossing stations and level crossings along the corridor. Commentary from both DFCCIL and the Consultant are given with a final concluding part containing Consultant recommendations.
Description
5.232 There are three communication requirements for the Khurja to Ludhiana section as follows:
• Provision of Optical Fibre Cables (OFC) in the entire section connecting all the stations for all the speech and data circuits for operational and commercial purposes.
• The need for provisioning of quad cables for emergency communication, block operation and level crossing gate communication.
• Provision of GSM network to cater for reliable emergency communication coverage.
5.233 The report also states that Indian Railways already have available the OFC system for much of the corridor section except between Khurja- Meerut (94 km).
DFCCIL Commentary
5.234 Previous reports stated that Indian Railways already had available the OFC system for much of the corridor section except between Khurja- Meerut (94 km) and that there were three identifiable needs for the corridor section – provision of speech and operations and commercial data along the corridor, emergency communication and block/level crossing communication and the provision of a GSM network. At the time of study the DFCCIL telecommunication proposals were compatible to the RITES and JICA report proposals.
Consultant Commentary
5.235 Although it is stated that an OFC network can be made available for the entire section of corridor, the inference is that the links are in the sole ownership of Indian Railways. This is not the case. The OFC network has been leased to IR from the public sector undertaking RailTel Corporation of India, who own the entire OFC network. They have authorised Indian
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Railways to use four fibres for their operational requirement and the balance, 20 fibres, are under the control of Rail Tel Corporation for commercial exploitation.
• Provide 24 fibres OFC cable as per Indian Railways standards. This should be laid in HDPE pipe for better protection by the side of the new DFCCIL track. Two cables are proposed on either side of the track. The circuits especially for CTC operation should be distributed and made standby for enhanced reliability.
• Along with the OFC cable on one side, six quad communication copper cables should be laid. This can cater for provision of Emergency socket at every kilometre and at every LC Gate. It will also cater for the gate telephone circuits connected to the nearest station and from their to the CTC centre.
• OFC should be dropped at every station and provided with independent STM-1 equipment. Both the STM-1 equipment should be wired for 63 E-1’s and equipped with 21, E-1’s ( One E-1 = 2 MB stream) and also interlinked with each other to enhance system reliability.
• One E-1 at each station should be utilised for conversion to 30 voice channels by installing multiplexer equipment at each location.
• Another pair of OFC in both the cables may be lit and provided with STM-4 equipped at selected stations located every 50 km. This can cater to the back up demand of the STM-1 at stations.
• As a further standby, it will be useful that DFCCIL swaps band width as well as dark fibres from RailTel Corporation or any other service provider in the entire section.
5.236 DFCCIL may consider the re-sale of surplus band width or dark fibres of OFC either themselves or through any service provider to other organisations to earn additional revenue
5.237 Control equipment connecting control office to stations by section control, Duty. Control, Traction Power Control, Traction Locomotive control and Emergency Control should be provided to link all the stations of the DFCCIL, the stations of Northern Railway Zone where interchange of trains have to take place, Traction Sub Stations, Sectionalising posts, etc. as well as supervisory staff depot locations.
5.238 A telephone exchange of 2000 lines could be provided at Control office in Ambala or any other place where control office is proposed. The telephone exchange should cater for the communication needs of DFCCIL on its own OFC network by having auto-telephones at every station, and to every DFCCIL employee concerned with the train operation.
5.239 With respect the provision of a GSM-R network, the consultant has observed that GSM-R network is being provided by Indian Railways in the Delhi- Mughalsari section. The infrastructure utilises a backbone of OFC and wireless equipment at outstations. All locomotives in the section will be equipped with the fixed equipment in the locomotive. DFCCIL will not be responsible for the control the locomotives, crew or equipment and as such whichever locomotives operate in the DFCCIL network would belong to IR and will in any event have the mobile coverage from IR network since the proposed DFCCIL corridor and most of the detour areas is in proximity to the existing railway transmission line. It is, therefore, logical that no investment is made by DFCCIL for provision of GSM-R and the responsibility for this should rest with IR. As and when the network is ready, DFCCIL would also be benefited from the IR locomotives operating in the corridor. Some minor investments may be necessary to extend the control equipment of GSM-R to DFCCIL control equipment which can be done at that stage. Accordingly no investment on account of GSM-R is considered necessary at this stage.
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Recommendation
5.240 The consultant recommends that the DFCCIL formalise an agreement with Rail Tel Corporation regarding their requirements. It is likely to be more cost effective for Rail Tel Corporation to own the DFC network requirements and enter into agreement for the financing of any new cable network additions and, if practicable, become partner for revenue sharing for commercial use of the new network. With this option, the DFCCIL saves on the capital investment for providing an OFC network.
5.241 With respect to this agreement the consultant recommends that the DFCCIL should have robust and fail-safe control of their communication network independent of other potential end users. To ensure system reliability, two separately routed OFC cables are suggested on either side of the DFCCIL railway line with the following arrangements:
5.242 The DFCCIL team specifically requested the Consultant to comment on the location of Control centre in the National Capital Region (NCR) around Delhi for setting up the control centre along with other sections of DFCCIL. This has been briefly reviewed and the consultant comments are as under:
• The main control centre can be located in the NCR along with other sections of the DFC under traffic control of the DFCCIL. The control centre may be located at any station between Khurja- Ludhiana.
• This control centre should be connected to the OFC network at Khurja, Meerut, Saharanpur, Ambala and Ludhiana. The connectivity should be provided at these stations from the DFCCIL OFC network in such a manner that in case of cable damage, all the stations are available through alternative routes.
• Sufficient band width should be swapped at two or three locations from other service providers to keep all the communication links working.
• As a safeguard against natural disasters or other emergency situations the entire control office should be replicated at any location between Ludhiana to Khurja with facility to start emergency operations whenever required by the DFCCIL main control office in the NCR region.
Section 5 Electrification
Scope
5.243 This section of the report describes the electrification and power supply provision proposals from Khurja to Ludhiana as determined by the DFCCIL following earlier DFC concept reports. The proposals form part of the infrastructure of the preferred alternative option. It describes the arrangements to be made at crossing stations and the MMD for construction of the overhead catenary system. Commentary from both DFCCIL and the Consultant are given with a final concluding part containing Consultant recommendations.
Description
5.244 Ministry of Railways commissioned RITES in July 2005 to carry out a Preliminary Engineering and Traffic Survey for multi modal high axle load, Dedicated Freight Corridor, initially between Delhi – Howrah, restricted between Sonnagar – Ludhiana later. The study was carried out in two parts, Part 1 - Feasibility Study and Part II - Preliminary Engineering cum Traffic Study.
5.245 The Preliminary Engineering cum Traffic Study Report for Dedicated Freight Corridor between Ludhiana and Sonnagar (PETS Report) was submitted by RITES in January 2006 for
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Sonnagar to Khurja. The approximate cost of Khurja – Ludhiana section was worked out on pro-rata basis. The final report was submitted in January 2007. It further recommended interconnectivity with existing corridor at 12 locations, crossing stations with 1500m loop length to be provided at 50 km interval. Track centres at 6 m, running of double stack containers with well type wagons, MMD will be 6300mm height and 4890mm wide.
5.246 The Ministry of Railways (MOR) in considering the RITES Report decided that the alignment from Ludhiana to Khurja should be single line with substructure for double line, no surface crossings, centre to centre spacing of DFC track of 5.5 m, a distance from adjoining existing tracks of 6 m., with no rolling stock maintenance facilities to be planned. Track and OHE to be suitable for running trains with Double Stack Containers and a conventional 25 kV System of Electric traction to be utilised. Traction substations to be spaced at 30 km interval. Inter– station distance to be 10 km with number of stations to be 50. Maximum speed to be 100 kph on the proposed corridor. Maximum moving dimensions MMD to be 6.6 m vertical to permit movement of double stack containers with Schedule of Dimension (SOD) being 7.1 m in vertical direction and double WAG 7 locomotives utilised for moving 5800 tonne train loads.
5.247 As part of Technical cooperation, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) carried out feasibility studies of the dedicated multimodal high axle load freight corridors on Mumbai – Delhi and Delhi – Howrah routes including a base line survey and submitted their report in Oct. 2007. They also reviewed the RITES Report.
5.248 The JICA Report recommended that Track and OHE should be suitable for running trains with Double Stack Containers on well type wagons and 5800 tonne train load with 25 tonne axle load , 50kV (2x25 kV) of Electric Traction System to be provided. Traction substations to be spaced 50 km apart, 2No. 65 MVA transformers at electricity supply points to be provided with 8 MVA ATs. Maximum speed on corridor to be limited to 90 kph, MMD (Vertical) will be 6.83 m and SOD (Vertical) 7.76 m, 8 Axle, 12000 HP locomotives recommended to be used for hauling 5800 T trains and 6 Axle 9000 HP locomotives for hauling 4500 T container trains. The present axle load should be 25 T with future axle load to 30 tonne. Land procurement should allow for 1500 m long siding loops, however, only 750 m lengths should be provided for the current design stage.
DFCCIL Commentary
5.249 The DFCCIL vide their no. HQ / EL / EC Dated 18 September 2008 advised that a 2 x 25 kV Traction system should be adopted, the traction sub-station (TSS) spacing of 60 km, Major OHE maintenance Depots at 60 km interval and Minor Depots at 30 km interval, one SP and two SSP between two TSS also to be provided. Also DFCCIL has now specified that only single stack containers will run with MMD as 5.1 m. Minimum overhead catenary mast implantation off-set of 3 m with track centres at 6 m to be adopted.
5.250 The Ministry of Railways (MOR) reviewed the parameters / issues raised in the JICA report in particular and advised vide their letter no. 2006/ Infra/ 6 / 3 dated 23 June 2009 that designs should be for a track structure suitable for 32.5 T axle load, 60 kg rails and 1 in 12 turnouts, loop length of 750m with provision for extension to 1500 m in future, Maximum Moving Dimension (MMD) Vertical to be 5.1 m in Eastern Corridor and adoption of a 2x25 KV Traction System. Automatic signalling to be provided with 2 km spacing of signals. Station interlocking to have provision for a Centralised Traffic Control (CTC) operation in future and an independent optical fibre cable network should be provided for DFC for telecommunication.
5.251 DFCCIL has advised the consultant that the alignment will be parallel to existing tracks as per the drawings furnished to consultant, the yard modification drawings have also been provided along with a revised estimate of works.
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5.252 A report commissioned from DFCCIL on Operation and Maintenance Infrastructure was made available which recommends the setting up of a Regional Office to control all operations, integrated maintenance Depots and Sub-Depots for all Engineering Branches, Track Machine Maintenance Depots / Sub Depot, Civil Engineering Maintenance Depot / Sub – Depot, Junction stations to house Area Manager and Traffic Inspector, two points-men and two Station Masters per shift, crossing stations to have one points-man and one Station Master per shift.
Consultant Commentary
5.253 The recommendations made in the RITES and JICA reports and advice from the DFCCIL from an electrical engineering point of view are quite at variance from each another. While the RITES Report has recommended use of conventional 25 kV Traction System capable of permitting running of double stack containers, JICA report has recommended the use of a 50kV (2x25 kV) traction system with double stack container provision and the DFCCIL proposals are for adoption of the 2x25kV system with no double stack container provisions.
5.254 Traction System – The MOR has approved adoption of a 2x25 kV AC Traction system on dedicated freight corridors. Indian Railways has about 15 years experience of working with this system on Bina – Katni – Anupur – Bishrampur section in particular where it has given performance in line with expectations.
5.255 In this system power is fed from the TSS at 50 kV and track-side utilization is achieved at 25 kV by providing auto-transformers of adequate capacity and by providing one additional conductor normally referred as Feeder Wire (similar to the return conductor in BT/RC system). Centre point of the auto-transformer would be connected to the earth/rail. The system permits use of all of the IR locomotive fleet designed for a 25 kV conventional system. It also allows straightforward cross-over traffic movement from the conventional 25 kV system to the 2x25 kV System.
5.256 The substation spacing for a conventional electrified system is in the range of 40 – 60 km while in case of 2x25 kV system, the substation spacing is typically 70 –100 km , almost double that of a conventional system. With an outage on one TSS, the number of substations reduces to almost half. Voltage profile ranges between 22.5 to 27.5 kV as against 18.4 kV to 29.99 kV on conventional 25 kV system, average power factor very high and specific energy consumption much less.
5.257 Indian Railways completed two pilot projects for electrification on 2x25 kV System in 1994 – 95. Initially the cost of 2x25 kV system was 32% higher compared to conventional 25 kV system, mainly due to over-designing the system for running 9000 tonne trains which never materialised even after 15 years of operation. In addition, some ancillary equipment was found to be not required under Indian operating conditions and this contributed to a cost that was much higher than would be the case for a new project.
5.258 For example, on the West Central Railways where this system has been used, it was noticed that the maximum load current recorded was 450 Amps whereas the system was designed to carry a load current of 2000 Amps.
5.259 On South East Central Railway, one TSS at Bishrampur has been closed down in Dec 1999 due to operational problems and still the transformers of balance TSSs are loaded only to 50- 55 % of the total rated capacity and the voltage drop still remained with in prescribed limits, indicating that the substation spacing can be further increased with present level of traffic.
5.260 Studies that have been carried out by Research Design and Standards Organisation (RDSO) and Central Organisation for Railway Electrification of Indian Railways indicated that should the system be designed for present day traffic, redundant equipment like fault locators, CR
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devices, series capacitors may be eliminated, 5 MVA auto-transformers and “V” connected transformers may be utilised to reduce the cost substantially.
5.261 A principle advantage over the conventional electrification system is that the 50kV (2x25kV) traction system offers a considerable advantage due to reduction of Power Supply points to almost half of conventional system. It is recognised that the State Electricity authorities levy very high development charges (of the order of Rs.4 to 5 Crore per TSS) along with substantially high cost of transmission lines.
5.262 As there are no arcing problems at overlaps as in the case of BT/RC system, the system is ideally suitable for high speed corridors and also for high haulage capacity sections where power requirement is very high. A 50kV electrification system is current preferred international practice.
5.263 While JICA Report recommended a 2x25kV system with 2 No 65MVA transformer substations spaced 50km apart, RITES Report (PETS Report) recommended 25kV system with 2 No 30MVA transformer substations spaced 30km apart. The DFCCIL is contemplating a 2x25kV system with 60MVA transformers spaced 60km apart. In view of Indian Railway’s experience with 2x25kV system as detailed above, the Consultant is of the opinion that the power system on DFC should be designed to take care of traffic requirements over the next 15 to 20 years and augmented at such time as when traffic density so warrants.
5.264 OHE design and specification - The OHE is basically the same as that of conventional system with return conductor (RC). In a 2x25 kV system a feeder wire runs through the entire length of the section on super mast in place of return conductor. Booster Transformer (BT)/ RC are not required as there is negligible interference with the telecom system.
5.265 The proposed design for OHE works are in line with standard IR practice. However, latest instructions from IR with regard to implantation of masts and provision of auxiliary transformers on independent masts have to be taken in to account while developing detailed designs. The DFCCIL has decided to adopt minimum implantation of 3m which is considered necessary in order to increase system reliability by reducing the incidence of wagon doors hitting OHE masts cases. The section is in the yellow zone of wind pressure, where wind pressure is 112.5 kg per square metre. Regulated polygonal OHE is proposed on main line and primary loops, and tramway type of equipments on secondary lines and yards.
5.266 In an AT feeding system JICA Report suggests provision of a Protective Wire (PW) arrangement to carry return current to prevent electro – magnetic induction and aerial an Earth Wire (EW). Indian Railways do not use either of these arrangements and no interference issues on this account have ever been experienced. It is, therefore, recommended not to adopt these arrangements for use by the DFC.
5.267 The DFCCIL draft business plan dated August 2009 advises that double stack container trains will not be run on this section of corridor. It is therefore appropriate that the new overhead line structures should not be designed for future running of double stack containers at a later date. They should, though, cater for the doubling of tracks in the future as traffic demand increases.
5.268 SCADA - All the power supply equipment is to be remotely controlled from a centralised control facility in Indian Railways through a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system. This control technique has been utilised on Indian Railways for some 50 years. However, over the years, electromagnetic relays have been replaced with static relays with computerised control. It is this more recent technology that is recommended for use on the DFC.
5.269 Infrastructure maintenance - As per report on operation and maintenance infrastructure, it has been proposed to provide three regional offices in each corridor for controlling operation
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of trains on dedicated freight corridor. One regional office has to be located in Ludhiana – Khurja Section.
5.270 Besides, integrated maintenance depots have been proposed at every 80 km where staff and facilities for maintenance will be housed for all the three principal engineering disciplines of Civil, Electrical and S&T. In addition maintenance sub- depots will be provided at every 40 km where some maintenance tools and material will be kept. One main depot for maintenance of track machines is proposed in each corridor supported by 3 sub–depots. On Ludhiana – Khurja Section, provision of one sub–depot has been kept for maintenance of track machines.
5.271 Infrastructure for maintenance of traction assets is to be provided separately as per norms prescribed in the IR AC Traction Manual. Major maintenance depots are proposed to be provided at about 80 km interval. These depots will be equipped to carry out periodical scheduled maintenance, repair and overhauling of the equipment. In addition minor depots are to be provided in between major depots (at about 40 km interval) primarily for attending breakdowns, providing power blocks etc. The major depots are to be equipped with 8 wheeler tower cars housed in tower wagon sheds.
5.272 Electric locomotive maintenance - Ministry of Railways vide their letters dated 7.03.2006 and 25.09.2006 directed that no additional rolling stock maintenance facilities should be planned for DFC. On the Ludhiana – Khurja section, there is currently one existing electric loco shed located at Ludhiana. One more electric locomotive shed is due to be implemented at Khanalampura (Saharanpur). Other electric locomotive sheds in the vicinity of the corridor are at Kanpur and Gaziabad. It is considered that these facilities will adequately to take care of Ludhiana – Khurja DFC; however, the consultant recommends that provision of trip sheds at Khurja and Kalanaur be kept to take care of trip inspections and emergency attention.
5.273 Signalling Power - The power supply for non- traction purposes is drawn from two sources. A local power supply connection from State Electricity Authorities and an OHE supply for signalling through a range of 25 kV/230 V single phase 25/10/5 kVA auxiliary supply transformers. These connections to the OHE provide low voltage to the signalling system including power to colour light signals, repeater stations, switching stations, and mid section level crossing gates. Two auxiliary transformers are being proposed at each station for colour light signalling, in double line section, whereas only one auxiliary transformer is being proposed at each station for colour light signalling, in single line section. In addition standby diesel–generating sets are proposed at junction stations. The estimates are therefore provided on the above basis.
5.274 Electrical General Services - The scope of Electrical General Services Works include Electrification of Station Buildings, Level crossings, Buildings for Maintenance infrastructure, Residential Buildings, modification of Power Line crossings, Provision of power supply distribution network, provision of stand by DG Sets at important locations, provision of pumps for water supply, illumination of yards / approach roads etc.
5.275 The designs adopted will be required to be in accordance with the guidelines and instructions issued by Ministry of Railways and Research Designs and Standards Organization (RDSO) and design will need to comply with Indian Electricity Act 2003, I.E. Rules & relevant Codes of Practice. Specifically, the designs would be based upon Railway’s standard Technical Specifications for General Electrical Works. National Building Code, IE Rules and Indian Standards prescribed for various items such as:
• Scale of Fittings - The scale of fittings to be provided in residential quarters are based upon Railway Boards letter No. 99/ Elec (G)/136/1 dated 17.3.2005. In service buildings the scale of fittings has been fixed based upon work requirement.
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• Level of Illumination - The level of illumination will be in accordance with Railway. Board’s Letter No. 2004/Elect (G)/109/1 of 14th May 2007.
• Yard Lighting - At Junction stations and Terminal Stations, high mast carrying light fittings will be provided. However, at Crossing Stations fittings for illumination of area in front of station building will be provided on station building itself or on platforms where provided.
5.276 Modification of Power Line Crossings - Since the proposed alignment is now proposed to be along with existing Railway tracks, there will be a need to take in to account modification of existing power line crossings. The detailed data required to verify the number of crossings requiring modifications is not available. The Consultant has, therefore, utilised the figures provided by the DFCCIL.
5.277 Estimates for Traction Works - Traction Works which includes OHE, Traction substations, Switching stations, Supervisory Remote control and data acquisition system, maintenance infrastructure.
5.278 The cost of 2x25 kV system components has been worked out based upon ratio of cost of 2x25 kV System and conventional 25 kV System as per RDSO report (Paper by Sr. Executive Director / Traction Installation Directorate), RDSO. for simplified System using 132 kV transmission lines, ‘V’ connected transformers, 5MVA ATs. no fault locators, CR devices and series capacitors are proposed to be used.
5.279 The cost of conventional 25 kV System Components, has been arrived at by using unit rates of CORE / RVNL and updating them based upon latest accepted rates of RVNL above Schedule of Rates.
5.280 The estimated cost for Traction Works comes to Rs. 458.49 Crore as per details given in the cost catalogue provided in the appendices.
5.281 Estimates for Electrical General Services - As regards Electrical General Services works, it may be pointed out that engineering estimate contains lump sum provision for Service and residential buildings. For estimation of quantities to reasonable accuracy in order to comply ADB requirements, details of buildings and their approximate size / layout plan are required. Some details are available in Electrical estimate and Maintenance Infrastructure is defined in Halcrow Group Report. Provision for other buildings has been made based upon our experience.
5.282 For cost estimation, different Railway Zones follow their own practice. We have adopted Northern Railway unit estimates duly updated based upon last accepted rates of RVNL/ current market rates.
5.283 The estimated cost of General Services works comes to Rs. 63.33 Crore as per details given in the cost catalogue provided in the appendices.
Recommendations
5.284 The consultant recommends that the 2x25 kV auto-transformer system for the dedicated freight corridors be taken as the adopted strategy. The design may, however, take in to account realistic traffic projections. The provision of traction substations at the starting and ending points of the corridor should remain as part of the design. The substation spacing beyond Kalanaur could be comparatively more as the projected traffic on this section is much less compared to other section. Simulation studies referred to above would confirm the optimum location of traction substations.
5.285 The business plan of DFCCIL indicates the number of trains per day in both directions. It is seen that in the Sanhewal to Sirhind section, the number of scheduled trains is relatively few.
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Only the Kalanaur to Khurja section is scheduled to be heavily loaded. The consultant recommends therefore that substation spacing be kept 80 - 90 km in Sanhewal - Kalanaur Section and 60 to 65 km in Kalanaur to Khurja Section with auto-transformers provided at 15 to 20 km interval.
5.286 A list giving details of proposed traction substations and switching stations is given in the Appendices within Volume 4 of this report. The length of transmission line per substation has been assumed as 25km. The consultant recommends that a power supply load flow simulation analysis be carried out to establish the most efficient locations of Traction Substations.
5.287 In view of Indian Railway’s experience with 2x25kV systems the consultant recommends that 2No 30MVA traction power supply transformers be procured to take care of traffic requirement over next 15 to 20 years and augmented later only as traffic on the corridor increases.
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6. Contract Structure and Implementation
DFCCIL Proposals
6.1 At the time of study the DFCCIL had not fully reached conclusion to its overall project management strategy, procurement and contract management and packaging arrangements. One consideration, for example, was the appointment of a General Contractor to develop the Ludhiana to Khurja section plans up to and including Preliminary Design stage with a hand- over to a possible turn-key EPC type contractor thereafter. Considerations over whether to utilise measured or fixed price contracts were similarly still under discussion.
6.2 The first project timeline given in Appendix 1A in Volume 4 provides the current DFCCIL contract strategy overview proposal in terms of enabling works, design and construction activities. Appendix 1B in Volume 4 shows the DFCCIL currently proposed programme for Ludhiana to Khurja where the complete project has been estimated to have an implementation period of 108 months, inclusive of pre-construction activities. The DFCCIL proposed start date for the first of the civil engineering works has been scheduled for early 2011 with completion and opening of the section to traffic targeted for April 2017.
Contract packaging
6.3 It is the Consultant’s experience that full allowance should be made for preparatory works in any contract packages being considered. Enabling works are by their very nature a pre- requisite to main construction. Such works will include the purchase of land for construction of permanent and temporary structures and alignment, resettlement works and enabling works to IR. A key part to such preparation will be the preliminary design. Preliminary designs will require to be carried out and achieve full IR approval prior to design hand-over to successful contractor(s) who will take such designs to a further detailed level prior to approval for construction being granted via, it is proposed, a robust interdisciplinary/assurance process.
6.4 Factors which have a bearing on the contract packaging are:
• Project programme sensitivity/client priorities
• Number of likely main contracts/sub-contracts
• Value of main contracts/sub-contracts
• Ease of co-ordination
• Economy in design
• Economy in construction.
• Type of construction.
• Potential for incremental commissioning
6.5 A proposed contract package strategy is shown in time-line diagram form below. This strategy will need to be integral to the project programme management arrangements discussed further in this chapter.
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Figure 6.1: Proposed contract package strategy
Implementation risks
6.6 Implementation history is full of examples of failings at final construction. The reasons are as many as the projects – financial spend beyond budget, programme overruns, technical failures, not delivering expectations, completed but not used due to interfacing projects not in place. Each case history will highlight the principal causes of these failings which are often drilled down to individual contractors not complying with specifications or instructions, resulting in, under the worst case scenarios, parties entering into litigation for recompense.
6.7 The highlighting of contractors and events on the ground by the implementing agency, of course, is for the most part an admission of failings through inadequate management. At a public level, failings may be because of expectations beyond reality – this is a failing by an executing agency in its external communications and public affairs. At a project level, failings are in large part, through lack of management of detail. It is often problems with small detail which will de-rail a project. Programme management therefore should be planned at each of the smallest reasonable activities; track design might be considered as one activity alongside civil design etc. The project management structure should therefore reflect each of these activities with the aim of achieving a rounded complete project through managed stages and interdisciplinary approval processes building up a complete construction data model. All projects will inevitably encounter problem areas with difficult issues arising; successful project implementation though will be achieved by how such issues are dealt with and managed to closure.
Recommendations
6.8 The consultant recommends that both Eastern and Western Corridors be recognised as two independent macro-projects in their own right with management structures to reflect such importance in a geo-political sense. This project (Ludhiana to Khurja) forms one complete section out of a total of four sections of route that together comprise the complete Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor railway from Kolkata to Ludhiana. It will be essential that this northernmost section of the route be completely stand-alone and autonomous in its management with interface agreements and interface management in place with the separately funded adjoining section of the Eastern Corridor at its southern (Khurja) end of the
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project. It is natural that the Eastern Corridor be considered in roll-up programme format. The Corridor should not, however, be managed in this way. Each of the Corridor sections must be seen as individual major projects in their own right. Stakeholder management will be a key ingredient towards successful implementation of this project and will need to be made visible within the DFCCIL organisation. Particular stakeholders required for success will include State government representatives, Road Transport Planning Authorities and Freight logistics representatives as well as freight departmental planners from within the MoR. Such teams, the consultant recommends, should be co-located with the DFCCIL team.
6.9 With the design aspect of this project being key to timescale achievement, the Consultant recommends that a multi-discipline contract be competitively let to a design-house with responsibilities for production of a functional specification for the Ludhiana to Khurja section of corridor (in conjunction with and approval of the DFCCIL), engineering survey (including ground investigation works), construction of CAD model, civil and structure preliminary design, railway system preliminary design (including track), obtaining approvals and determination of setting-out points; all for hand-over to the CPM for subsequent hand-over to nominated contractors. It is additionally proposed that the preliminary design contractor/consultant be part of the interdisciplinary/assurance team responsible to the CPM for assuring effective/robust detailed design prior to construction. The Consultant’s timeline proposal is shown for comparison in the lower diagram of appendix 1A and an indicative programme is given in appendix 1C.
Figure 6.2: Proposed Project Management Structure
6.10 In order to achieve commissioning of infrastructure by 2017, all preceding and overlapping contracts must be executed to programme. This project is a premier project for IR and a premier project will require first class project management. The Consultant’s proposed Contract and Procurement strategy, therefore, revolves around this aspect. This strategy recommends one Contract Programme Management (CPM) team led by a Project Director (PD) responsible to a DFCCIL Steering Board. To ensure programme accountability, the Steering Group Board should have full delegated powers for approval and award of any
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contract package or variations for the project. The PD and team must, by necessity, have a close working relationship with the steering group board. It is proposed that the CPM team be appointed prior to construction tender invitation. The CPM should additionally have delegated responsibilities for appointment of design (detailed) and build sub-contracts as appropriate. A proposed project management organogram including management arrangements for Ludhiana and Meerut is given in figure 6.2.
Reducing Implementation Risk
6.11 For a project with this number of interfaces and approximately 400km in length, there are two management tools that are recommended to be adopted in parallel with each other that will greatly improve the chances of implementation success. The tools are:
(i) Programme Management, and
(ii) Project Assurance – Finance.
6.12 Programme Management is the first principal lever for project success. The Construction Programme Management organisation will require complete autonomy over its internal operations including approvals with legal agreements in place between it and the Borrower (if the Borrower is not a member of the DFCCIL). Indian Railways Research Design Standards Organisation (RDSO) has a key role to play in this arrangement and recommendations on its role and relationship in approvals process are given elsewhere in this report. The consultant recommends for this project that satisfactory completion of construction will be by hand-over certification to the nominated DFCCIL maintenance organisation. Such hand-over would constitute the final milestone in the financial lever schedule.
6.13 Project Assurance through finance arrangements or, in this context, project disbursement/ drawdown is a key component of providing assurance that a project is in control. This aspect of project control is discussed further under Chapter 7 (Procurement) and Chapter 8 (Loan Supervisory Terms of Reference). It has been recommended that the supervisory role to be expanded to be that of a Technical Adviser to the lending authority independent of the project’s construction management organisation. The consultant recommends that such loan disbursement arrangements are drawn down against agreed contract milestone achievements on a quarterly basis throughout the contract period until ‘proof of hand-over to public service’ has been achieved.
6.14 It is with consideration of the above factors that the Procurement Plan drafted under ADB guidelines has been proposed. The financial assurance tool or lever being termed under such guidelines as ‘Performance Based Procurement’. Salient points contained within the ADB procurement guidelines publication follow this chapter together with the plan and references to contract standard bidding documentation.
6.15 The Consultant endorses the DFCCIL overall Ludhiana to Khurja seven year programme of work from start of procurement processes to final completion of this project. Initial contract preparation and procurement and agreements to gain access to land and final legal approvals are expected to require approximately 18 months. In parallel with this activity will be Preliminary Design for a period of approximately 18 months. A period of 42 months should be allowed for final design and construction of all earthworks, embankment works and structures, including medium and small bridges. Track laying, electrification, signalling and telecommunications works and final commissioning will require a total time of 12 months for the complete route. Six months should be allowed as contingency for possible delays during the construction period followed consecutively by a further 6 months for training and bringing the line fully into service. A project programme based on these periods has been provided by the Consultant and is given in Appendix 1 to this report.
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6.16 The electrical, signalling and telecommunication works have to follow closely the track works which in turn follow the civil works. Those works which can be independently planned have to be executed in a manner such that progress of other works is not impeded on their account.
6.17 As outlined in the project management proposals above the programme envisages the project section Ludhiana to Khurja split into four manageable areas, Ludhiana A and Ludhiana B in tandem with Meerut A and Meerut B. Each of these sections, it is proposed, would be under the jurisdiction of a section project director responsible to the overall CPM Project Director.
Year end 31 March Total 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total Cr Land Acquisition 213.00 70% 20% 10%- - - - - 100% (Total Cost) Design and 3298.00 1% 2% 10% 24% 25% 21% 12% 5% 100% Construction (Total Cost) Multi-discipline Design 105.00 20% 20% 17.5% 10% 10% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 100% to include Civil, Structural, Track, Sig, Elect/Telecomms (Contract P’kage Cost) Contract Programme 176.00 - 10% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 100% Management (CPM) (Contract P’kage Cost) Civil/Earthworks 616.00 - - 20% 40% 30% 10% - - 100% (Contract P’kage Cost) Major Bridge 300.00 - - 10% 25% 25% 25% 15% - 100% Structures (Contract P’kage Cost) Medium Bridge 217.00 - - 10% 25% 25% 25% 15% - 100% Structures (Contract P’kage Cost) Small Bridge 217.00 - - 10% 25% 25% 25% 15% - 100% Structures and ROBs (Contract P’kage Cost) Track (Contract 727.00 - - 5% 20% 25% 25% 15% 10% 100% Package Cost) Railway Systems 940.00 - - 5% 20% 25% 25% 15% 10% 100% (Contract P’kage Cost) Table 6.3: Phasing/Cost Spread
6.18 Based on this programme a phasing/cost spread plan is given above (table 6.1) for the works as indicated in the contract strategy with the phased contract discipline packages supporting the plan.
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INTENTIONALLY BLANK
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7. Procurement
General
7.1 The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has developed a set of procurement guidelines that have been placed in the public domain and are known as Procurement Guidelines 2007. The purpose of those guidelines is to inform those wishing to carry out a project that is financed in whole or in part by a loan from the ADB, ADB-financed grant, or ADB administered funds, of the policies that govern the procurement of goods, works, and services required for a project. The financing agreement governs the legal relationships between the borrower and ADB, and the guidelines are made applicable to procurement of goods and works for the project, as provided in the agreement. The rights and obligations of the borrower and the providers of goods and works for the project are governed by the bidding documents, and by the contracts signed by the borrower with the providers of goods and works, and not by the guidelines or the financing agreements.
7.2 Standards and technical specifications quoted in bidding documents are required to promote the broadest possible competition, while assuring the critical performance or other requirements for the goods and/or works under procurement. As far as possible, the borrower is to specify internationally accepted standards such as those issued by the International Standards Organisation with which the equipment or materials or workmanship shall comply. Where such international standards are unavailable or are inappropriate, national standards may be specified. In all cases, the bidding documents are required to state that equipment, material, or workmanship meeting other standards, which must specify substantial equivalence, will also be accepted.
Procurement Plan Requirements
7.3 As part of the preparation of a project the borrower is required to prepare and, before loan negotiations, furnish to ADB for its approval, a procurement plan setting out:
• The particular contracts for the goods, works, and/or services required to carry out the project during the initial period (at least 18 months).
• The proposed methods for procurement of such contracts that are permitted under the financing agreement.
• The related ADB review procedures.
Consultant Experience
Procurement Strategy
7.4 The overall value of the project indicates the level of risk associated with a project and has the major bearing on contract procurement. The greater the value, the more likelihood of large main contracts or sub-contracts having to be interfaced and managed. Priority should be given to mitigation of risk of programme slippage and implications of late delivery to other parts of the Indian railway network. In this study analysis the whole Eastern Corridor could be at risk if focus is moved too far from programme management. It is a correct assertion that competition will encourage innovation and reduce overall construction costs. Dividing the project into smaller segments might offer more opportunities for competition. However the effectiveness of this approach will be negated by the non-availability of a large number of capable contractors, and, the inordinate amount of management effort required to manage each sub-contract and meet the overall programme at the same time without incurring contractual penalties.
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7.5 Many railway construction projects have seriously over-run in programme and costs because of lack of accountability of delivery at rolled-up programme level. A larger number of lower value contracts create problems of co-ordination. Railway projects not only require co- ordination within the various agencies involved with construction, they also involve coordination with those authorities charged with day-today running of a railway network. This will be particularly pertinent where proposals are made for works associated with bridge extensions and yard remodelling as required on this Ludhiana to Khurja section of network. More contract interfaces would increase the amount of coordination required. This could contribute to increased expenditure and possibly increase the time frame required for completion. For these reasons the consultant propose the use of a Construction Programme Management team with authority for leadership, direction and, importantly, procurement of all main and sub-contracts. Railway projects involve civil earthworks, bridges/structures, track, electrification, signalling and telecommunication disciplines. Each of these is a specialised discipline in itself and there are relatively few contractors in India with capability in all these areas.
7.6 Separate contracts for the supply of materials offer the opportunity to negotiate more favourable terms for large orders. Major items like rail, sleepers etc. might be obtained directly from the manufacturers and supplied to the installation main contractors as free issue. The value of individual construction contracts might thus be lowered to achieve economy of scale provided programme management is not time critical. Nonetheless, advance orders for long lead items such as transformers and switchgear will be essential to ensure that they are available in time to meet the project programme. Quantities of such equipment may only be reasonably accurately given when preliminary designs can be made available.
7.7 Procurement under ADB guidelines (Guidelines for Procurement) requires civil works contracts over $3 million to be procured through International Competitive Bidding (ICB) and those below $3 million through local competitive bidding. In addition, procurement of civil works under ICB and local competitive bidding should be carried out among pre-qualified bidders. Procurement of equipment should use ICB for contracts with an estimated value of at least $500,000. International shopping should be used for contracts with an estimated value of $100,000 to 500,000, and direct purchase arrangements may be had for contracts of less than $100,000.
7.8 Indicative contract package prices for this project are given below where it will be seen that with all of the major construction elements of this corridor out-turning in excess of $3 million, competitive tendering should be applicable throughout.
Major Type of Contract Contract Conditions Notional Estimate Contract Cr Package Number 1 Multi-discipline Design to Time/resource based on 105.00 include Civil, Structures, schedule of rates and Track, Signalling, novated to CPM for duration Electrification and of contract Telecommunications 2 Contract Programme Time/resource based on 176.00 Management (CPM) schedule of rates and Performance based Pain/Gain 3 Civil/Earthworks Design and Build under 616.00 FIDIC Contract Conditions 4 Major Bridge Structures Design and Build under 300.00 FIDIC Contract Conditions 5 Medium Bridge Structures Design and Build under 217.00 FIDIC Contract Conditions 6 Small Bridge Structures and Design and Build under 217.00 ROBs FIDIC Contract Conditions 7 Track Design and Build under 727.00 FIDIC Contract Conditions
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Major Type of Contract Contract Conditions Notional Estimate Contract Cr Package Number 8 Railway Systems Design and Build under 940.00 FIDIC Contract Conditions Total All Packages (exc. Land cost 213.00 Cr) 3298.00 Table 7.1: Indicative contract procurement package prices
7.9 Under DFCCIL governance rules a formal delegated responsibility matrix has been assigned to the DFCCIL management and it is noted that the managing director has been granted delegated administrative authority for the award of competitive tenders up to Rs 300 Cr.
7.10 The total construction cost only of Ludhiana to Khurja is estimated to be in excess of Rs 3000.00 Cr and a typical element of construction that might be tendered for competitively could be the earthworks element that alone could outturn at Rs 575.00 Cr. It is likely, therefore, that in general, competitive tender prices for contract packages in this section of corridor will be outside of the current delegated contract award levels of DFCCIL management. There will, though, be a relatively large number of subcontracts to be let that will individually be generally less than Rs 200 Cr.
7.11 The client’s priority will clearly be to find the optimum balance between speed of construction and value for money. Drawing on recent experience of similar construction projects, it is believed that the Consultant’s proposed contract strategy and packaging outlined in chapter 6 offers the best balance between contractor capability and construction economy.
Recommendation
Procurement Plan
7.12 A proposed procurement plan for the Ludhiana to Khurja project is given below in table form. Review Procedures refer to sections within the ADB Procurement Guidelines 2007.
Major Type of Contract Contract Conditions Related ADB Review Contract Procedures Package Number 1 Multi-discipline Design to Time/resource based on Section 1.9 include Civil, Structures, schedule of rates and Track, Signalling, novated to CPM for Electrification and duration of contract Telecommunications 2 Contract Programme Time/resource based on Section 1.9 Management (CPM) schedule of rates and Performance based Pain/Gain 3 Civil/Earthworks Design and Build under Section I (1.11); Section FIDIC Contract II (parts A, B & C); Conditions Section III (3.14 and 3.15); Appendix 1; Appendix 2. 4 Major Bridge Structures Design and Build under Section I (1.11); Section FIDIC Contract II (parts A, B & C); Conditions Section III (3.14 and 3.15); Appendix 1; Appendix 2.
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Major Type of Contract Contract Conditions Related ADB Review Contract Procedures Package Number 5 Medium Bridge Design and Build under Section I (1.11); Section Structures FIDIC Contract II (parts A, B & C); Conditions Section III (3.14 and 3.15); Appendix 1; Appendix 2. 6 Small Bridge Structures Design and Build under Section I (1.11); Section and ROBs FIDIC Contract II (parts A, B & C); Conditions Section III (3.14 and 3.15); Appendix 1; Appendix 2. 7 Railway Systems Design and Build under Section I (1.11); Section FIDIC Contract II (parts A, B & C); Conditions Section III (3.14 and 3.15); Appendix 1; Appendix 2. Table 7.2: Indicative Procurement Plan
7.13 It is for noting that in addition, the ADB has published Standard Bidding Documents for various types of procurement and it is therefore recommended that these be reviewed by the DFCCIL to inform the basis of contract eventually agreed. Such documents would be mandatory for the borrower when borrowing under ADB guidelines notwithstanding that any prequalification and bidding documents are the responsibility of the borrower for finalised issue.
7.14 The Consultant recommends that performance based procurement processes be utilised for this project. This form of procurement can involve: (a) the provision of services to be paid on the basis of outputs; (b) design, supply, construction (or rehabilitation) and commissioning of a facility to be operated by the borrower; or (c) design, supply, construction (or rehabilitation) of a facility and provision of services for its operation and maintenance for a defined period of years after its commissioning. For projects such as the Ludhiana to Khurja section where design, supply and/or construction will be required, prequalification should also be sought from potential contractors with the use of two-stage bidding to further clarify requirements.
7.15 Performance based procurement, also known as output-based procurement, are competitive procurement processes. They follow International Competitive Bidding (ICB) or National Competitive Bidding (NCB) rules and result in a contractual relationship where payments are made for measured outputs instead of the traditional way where inputs are measured. It is this form of procurement that the consultant is recommending for this Ludhiana to Khurja project section. The technical specifications define the desired result and which outputs will be measured including how they will be measured. Those outputs aim at satisfying a functional need both in terms of quality, quantity and reliability. Payment is made in accordance with the quantity of outputs delivered, subject to their delivery at the level of quality required. Reductions from payments (or retentions) may be made for lower-quality level of outputs and, in certain cases; premiums may be paid for higher quality level of outputs. The bidding documents do not normally prescribe the inputs, nor a work method for the contractor. The contractor is free to propose the most appropriate solution, based on mature and well proven experience and is required to demonstrate that the level of quality specified in the bidding documents will be achieved.
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8. Loan Implementation
Introduction
8.1 Loan implementation is often considered as an independent exercise and quite separated from the deliverable that the loan is to facilitate. It is for noting in Chapters 6 and 7 in particular that the Consultant places emphasis on project assurance techniques to help minimise both technical risk as well as programme risk. The method of loan implementation, specifically its supervisory potential, should be considered a key part of this overall risk mitigation strategy.
Recommendation
8.2 Assurance of a project through the finance mechanisms, or in this context project loan disbursement / drawdown is a key component of providing assurance that a project is in control. Terms of reference are given at the end of this chapter for a financial supervisory consultancy role. This role, the consultant recommends, should be expanded to be that of a Technical Adviser to the lending authority independent of the project’s construction management organisation (although funded from within it). The first disbursement proposed in the suggested terms of reference that follow this section of report is, as an example, notionally assigned for ‘proof of land ownership’. The consultant recommends that disbursements against project milestones are continued on a quarterly basis throughout the contract period until ‘proof of hand-over to public service’ has been achieved. Such quarterly draw-downs should be against a set of pre-set conditions relating to DFCCIL contract arrangements. The first few examples of a typical draw-down schedule under these arrangements are given in the following table.
Item No Activity By Whom Proof of Date of %age Loan activity payment Drawdown application
1 Land agreements DFCCIL Review of 15 Nov 2010 0.5 complete final legal documents
2 Management in Construction Review of 15 Feb 2011 1.5 place Management signed-off Contractor organogram (CMC)
3 Track design CMC Design review 15 Feb 2011 1.5 commenced – Track minutes reviewed
4 Signalling contract CMC Review of 15 May 2011 5.0 in place documents and discussions with contractor
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Table 8.1: Typical example draw-down criteria
8.3 The above example table would be extended to cover every quarter of the project plan – in this case seven years - and be arranged to be cash-flow positive. It would become a legal binding document between the Borrower and the Lender(s) and may be supervised by a TA whose role will include issue of certificate (jointly signed by the TA and Borrower) to the Lender(s). In this case the Borrower could be the nominated DFCCIL Project Finance Manager for the Ludhiana to Khurja project section.
Terms of Reference for Supervisory Consultant
8.4 The following Terms of Reference describe the duties that the Consultant recommends be undertaken by the Supervisory Consultant in order to meet the regulatory requirements of the Asian Development Bank both for regular monitoring of progress towards project implementation and, as a project assurance tool, to provide certification of the proposed payment draw-downs.
8.5 It should be noted that in these Terms of Reference, words such as Borrower, Works etc. will require legal definition and/or reference to ADB forms of loan terms in any subsequent contractual agreement.
8.6 The proposed Terms of Reference for a Supervisory Consultant that follow are provided under three headings – Normal Services (Routine), Normal Services (Non-routine) and Additional Services.
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TERMS OF REFERENCE
A Normal Services (Routine)
1. Prepare quarterly Supervisory Consultant reports, comment on the progress of the Works and review and comment upon the Borrower's own quarterly progress reports.
2. In respect of Disbursements under the Agreement, prepare and submit certificates to the Asian Development Bank in an agreed standard format.
3. Risk:
a. Report quarterly on the progress towards the development by the Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporation of India Ltd (the Concessionaire) and its contractors of a suitable Risk Management System and processes; b. Monitor and report quarterly on the implementation and effectiveness of the Risk Management System. This will entail attendance at regular risk workshops of the Concessionaire and its contractors. 4. Environment:
a. Annual review and comment on the Concessionaire's Environmental Annual Report; b. Monitor on a quarterly basis the Borrower's implementation of the programme for compliance with the Agreed Environmental Requirements and, where appropriate, comment upon any issues raised; c. Prepare an annual certificate confirming that the Borrower is in compliance with the Agreed Environmental Requirements (see also 6b below). 5. Respond to questions on quarterly Supervisory Consultant’s Report from Asian Development Bank questions on routine matters.
B Normal Services (Non-Routine)
1. Conditions Precedent to First Drawdown:
a. Title Deeds: confirm that the Grantors have transferred to the Borrower or the Concessionaire has acquired that portion of the parcels of land which was to be transferred on or prior to the First Disbursement Date in order to comply with the Agreed Construction Schedule; b. Technical: prepare and submit a technical report addressed to the Asian Development Bank, including an environmental report confirming that the Borrower is in compliance with its obligations under the Agreed Environmental Requirements, in all material respects. 2. Interface and Interconnection Agreements: review and comment on technical aspects and submit a report to the Asian Development Bank.
3. Operating budget: six months prior to the Service Start Date, review and comment on the Operating Budget.
4. At the Completion Date, prepare a certificate confirming that:
a. The Concessionaire has pronounced that all works have been completed; b. The Borrower has pronounced in the minutes of a meeting, including any defects and timescale for remedy, that completion of works correctly and exhaustively
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reflect the scope of works and observations (if any) of the Grantors for the delivery of the ‘Put into Service’ project in accordance with the terms and conditions of the Concession Agreement, and any defects described do not impede the operation of the Railway Section on a long-term basis; c. The Borrower confirms that the Railway Section complies with the Agreed Environmental Requirements.
C Additional Services
1. Major Subcontracts:
a. Receive notification of Borrower's intention to execute a proposed Major Subcontract, review its Heads of Agreement, advise the Asian Development Bank in relation to their approval of the Borrower's entry into the Major Subcontract; b. Monitor performance of Sub-Contractors and in particular Major Sub-Contractors against appropriate benchmarks. Comment on any negative variances and missed milestones;
Note: This task is limited to an overview of the technical aspects of the Construction Contract or Operation Agreement sub-contracts and their implications for the potential risk to the Asian Development Bank, since the responsibility lies with the Contractor or Operator respectively.
2. Remedial plans:
a. Seek information regarding remedial plan trigger events. Review and provide advice on the adequacy of any remedial plan. Review and monitor progress of the plan(s); b. Receive details of environmental tests and studies and review their results and consult with the Borrower with respect to the proposed remedial plan. 3. Change control:
a. Advise on, review and monitor introduction of changes of any sort including changes such as Safety or Law Changes; b. Indian Railways Network Statements: review and comment upon any modifications; c. Modified Construction Schedule: confirm in a certificate addressed to the Asian Development Bank that: i. the proposed modification will not extend the planned Completion Date beyond an agreed Back-Stop Date; and ii. the proposed increase in Project Costs, if any, due to such extension, if any, will be fully funded through committed funds that are or will be available in due course, from sources permitted under agreement; it being understood that the Asian Development Bank shall provide the Supervisory Consultant with the information in its possession to determine whether funds are committed and available (or will be available in due course and in a timely manner). 4. If the Grantors have agreed to an extension of the Contractual Completion Date, confirm in a certificate addressed to the Asian Development Bank that sufficient funds are committed and are or will be available in due course and in a timely manner, from sources permitted under agreement, so that the Borrower can meet punctually with its financial obligations under the Lending Agreement.
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5. Information received: review and, where appropriate, comment on any relevant issues arising from the receipt of information from the Borrower whether through the Immediate Information Requirements or otherwise.
6. Respond to Asian Development Bank non-routine questions and be available for meetings and consultations as required.
7. Delay and Force Majeure Events: Receive notification of and review impact of any Delay or Force Majeure Events.
8. Reconstruction Plans: Receive and review Reconstruction Plans for restoring services and repairing, renewing and enhancing the Project assets.
9. Review and monitor recovery plans.
10. Review Borrower's assessment of the potential impact of any new and material outside party work that could affect the Railway’s Operations.
11. Review and provide advice on Events of Termination, Breach or Default.
12. Monitor dispute resolution, including claims.
13. Review and provide advice on model changes proposed between six monthly reviews.
14. Review and provide advice on proposals that generate Increased Cost and/or Risk in excess of relevant thresholds.
15. In the case of a ‘Partial Completion of Works’, prepare a special report indicating the reasons for such a situation and monitor progress towards the eventual elimination of such status.
16. In the event that the Borrower certifies compliance with the Agreed Environmental Requirements at any time, the Supervisory Consultant will review the certificate in order to ascertain whether anything renders this certification erroneous or misleading.
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INTENTIONALLY BLANK
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9. Quality management system review
Current status
9.1 The DFCCIL has been established under the Companies Act as a Special Purpose Vehicle to implement the MOR programme for augmenting capacity on the Golden Quadrilateral. Under this arrangement, the DFCCIL is the Implementing Agency for the investment component of the project. The DFCCIL as an organisation is, therefore, empowered under this agreement to undertake the procurement of finance, design, construction, commissioning, maintenance and repair of the Western and the Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor. An organogram of the proposed DFCCIL HQ at full implementation stage is given below.
9.2 There are a number of mandated documents such as ‘Articles of Association’ and ‘Delegated Authority Levels’ that constitute the governance rules of DFCCIL and the framework of their management systems. Other working level documents such as Concession Agreement and Business Plan do not include requirements for quality systems.
9.3 There is no mandated quality system for DFCCIL operations such as the international quality standard ISO 9001 or equivalent. The Group General Manager with responsibility for a specific project corridor section has responsibilities for implementation of all administration within that section of Corridor and management methods of working.
9.4 Although this report is focussed on the Ludhiana to Khurja section of the Eastern Corridor, it is for noting that, and natural that both Eastern and Western Corridors sections undertake administration and management in similar ways. The DFCCIL recognises the benefits of a quality management system, however at this stage quality audits would only be undertaken by invitation of specialists under contract. Presently, regular 6 monthly or 12 monthly review programmes or similar are not under envisaged.
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Consultant Experience
9.5 An overall information systems perspective is currently under construction for the DFCCIL in the form of an IT led information/data repository. This system is intended to become the basis for a subsequent freight corridor asset management system. Such systems offer the potential for extremely efficient quality controls. It is noted that this system is being diligently developed as a unified Corridor database for distribution among potential users. The term ‘Asset Management’ is the principal tool utilised for the care by subsequent maintenance and repair/replacement management by an infrastructure (operations) manager. At a working level, the quantity of asset information required to make for a meaningful compilation of say, daily work allocation schedules is large. The Consultant’s experience has shown that 50km of route provides a difficult quantity of information to handle with proprietary IT computerised maintenance management systems (CMMS). The Consultant notes that the section Ludhiana to Khurja alone will require eight times this quantity of information.
9.6 A works manual is currently being compiled that will contain safety, health and environmental goals. It will be applicable to all work sites on this section of corridor.
9.7 There are some key organisational elements still under consideration by the DFCCIL and lessons are being learned from the recent appointment of a General Contractor (GC) for the other two sections of Eastern Corridor. Review is underway by a ‘Panel of Experts’ team of contract strategies and timeframes of preliminary design. Presently, the assumption is that under ‘turn-key’ contract arrangements, appointed construction contractors will be provided with preliminary designs to take to ‘detailed’ and ‘for-construction’ design and their quality systems be ‘self-assuring’.
Recommendation
Quality Manual
9.8 Under the project and construction management arrangements recommended in chapter 6, a single autonomous management group responsible for the Ludhiana to Khurja section is proposed. The consultant recommends that a fully documented ‘Project Quality Manual’ be compiled by this group (delegated to the appointed Construction Programme Manager) solely for the use of and within this section of corridor. The manual should be a comprehensive mandated procedural document for all personnel working on the project section. It would contain, inter alia, quality management procedures concerning authority levels, correspondence and drawing issue arrangements, approval processes and interface management arrangements. In addition it should facilitate evolving documentation between its covers of design and construction assurance control mechanisms with detail at least as equal to international quality standards. Contained within the document would be a description of mechanisms for proof of self-assurance status of any construction contractor, including the audit arrangements for validation and verification purposes.
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10. Economic Analysis
Introduction
10.1 For the purposes of this feasibility study, the work has been divided into three key and interrelated subject areas, i.e. Business, Alignment and Engineering. The Business subject area is necessarily wide and includes economic, social, socio-economic, financial and management study aspects.
10.2 The economic analyses can be further considered in terms of direct and indirect economic benefits (and dis-benefits) arising from the operation of DFC as a railway, and in terms of wider social and economic impacts on society generally. Specific social and related subjects including poverty, gender, indigenous peoples and resettlement, as well as environment are covered under separate terms of reference but are referred to herein where there are important interactions between this study and these considerations. We have, however, undertaken a specific review of the operation of the line, as required by the Terms of Reference, from an economic point of view and this is discussed further in this section at 10.52 onwards .
10.3 Analysis of the general social impact, resettlement requirements and impacts on indigenous peoples (forest dwellers) will be expedited using contemporary practises including a consultative workshop. Environmental impacts due to the project will be assessed using the ADB Environmental Assessment Impact (EAI) framework approach. Land acquisition and Resettlement are also key issues and are similarly fully addressed.
10.4 Socio economic aspects include the development framework, traffic, economic evaluation and the design and monitoring framework.
10.5 The final key aspect of the Business subject area is the financial analysis of the project including financial viability and management.
10.6 For the financial analysis IR data was initially used although it is recognised that accounting data had difficulty in explaining the costs changes that may be associated with specific segments of its network. Hence, the recently prepared draft Business Plan for the DFCCIL has been seen as germane to analysis.
10.7 The three strands, under the Business subject area, of social, socio economic and financial directly relate and also interact with Alignment and Engineering not least in terms of implementation and cost implications.
10.8 At this report stage, a considerable amount of data has been collected from previous report statistics and directly from the DFCCIL for analysis and is now presented to support the overall feasibility study and thereby assist the development and implementation of the study section of the Eastern DFC.
Background
10.9 The Indian economy has, over the past decade, witnessed a sharp upturn represented by a 7.5% to 9.6% growth of GDP and 20% plus growth of exports. This, in turn, has given rise to an accelerated demand for land transport services of the order of nearly 12% per annum, which the land transportation systems in the country are currently not equipped to handle.
10.10 It is considered that for contributing to sustainable growth of the national economy and for regaining/improving its share in the total land transport of goods, the Indian Railways needs to achieve a major leap in the provision of additional rail transport capacity.
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10.11 Therefore, the Ministry of Railways has embarked on a long term plan to construct high axle load, high speed, dedicated freight corridors along the golden quadrilateral and its diagonals.
10.12 The Indian Railways (IR) system links up the four main urban centres of Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Howrah/Kolkata through what is referred to as the Golden Quadrilateral (GQ). These routes, together with Delhi-Chennai and Mumbai-Kolkata serve both the core freight and passenger needs of the nation. Many rail links of the GQ are near or at capacity.
10.13 Connectivity of the major economic activities within this area to/from the major national ports is a particularly vital element in the rationale of the development of a dedicated freight corridor (DFC).
10.14 As a first step in this direction, the Ministry of Railways has decided to construct a Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) spanning the Mumbai to Delhi (Western DFC) and Delhi to Kolkata (Eastern DFC) legs of the golden quadrilateral. Covering a total initial length of approximately 2800km and estimated to cost approximately Rs. 47,000 crore (US$10 billion) to build, the two corridors have been planned as under:
Western Corridor: A double ‐line Dedicated Freight Corridor from Jawaharlal Nehru Port in Navi Mumbai to Tughlakabad/Dadri in the NCR of Delhi, running along the Indian Railways’ JN Port, Vasai Road, Surat, Vadodara, Ahmedabad, Mahesana, Palanpur, Ajmer, Phulera, Ringus, Rewari, Dadri route over a route length of 1483 km; and
Eastern Corridor : A Dedicated Freight Corridor with a route length of 1279 km and consisting of two distinct segments as an electrified double line of 867 km between Sonnagar and Dadri, and an electrified single line of approximately 400 km between Khurja and Ludhiana (Dhandhari Kalan). It has further been decided to extend the Eastern DFC up to Dankuni in the Kolkata area, an additional route length of approximately 520 km.
10.15 With a view to ensuring rapid, focused and economical implementation of its DFC project, the Ministry of Railways (MOR) has set up a wholly owned SPV in the form of the Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporation of India Limited (DFCCIL), which is an independent corporate entity registered under the Companies Act, 1956. The Corporation has been endowed with full authority to take all necessary actions to implement the project in a fast and economical manner.
10.16 The objectives of setting up the DFCCIL and the functions and duties assigned to it in the form of its ‘area of authority’ have been briefly defined in the Company’s Memorandum & Articles of Association and include all activities related with the successful implementation of the DFC project and, thereafter, its operation and maintenance.
10.17 The detailed relationship, including the mutual rights and obligations of the parties concerned is, however, to be set out in a Concession Agreement to be executed between the Ministry of Railways and the DFCCIL. Thus, instead of being a wholly owned subsidiary of the Ministry of Railways, the DFCCIL would constitute an independent company and a Concessionaire of the DFC Project.
10.18 As a first step towards discharging its responsibility for implementation of the DFC project, the DFCCIL appointed consultants to prepare a detailed Business Plan for the DFCCIL. Work commenced in late 2008 and reports are emerging as described below.
10.19 The main components of Scope of Work for the Business Plan includes;
a) Preparation of Traffic and Revenue Projections for the DFC over a 30 years horizon. b) Preparation of a Draft Concession Agreement.
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c) Estimating the Operation and Maintenance (O&M) Cost for the DFC. d) Analysing and recommending the most appropriate structure of Track Access Charges. e) Proposing a viable plan for the efficient and timely execution of the DFC project through a judicious mix of EPC and PPP modes. f) Proposing suitable options for Financing and Development of a Multimodal Logistics Park near Rewari. g) Preparation of an Integrated Business Plan for the DFCCIL. Macro-economic background including recent global economic crisis
10.20 The Indian economy is facing macroeconomic management challenges stemming from the global financial crisis. Declining private investment, fluctuating capital inflows, shrinking foreign exchange reserves, weakening exports, and a depreciating rupee are some of the factors constraining the maintenance of previously high growth levels.
10.21 Raising growth in the long run requires completion of structural reforms and substantial investment in infrastructure.
10.22 India went into FY2008 (ending March 2009) with strong macroeconomic fundamentals, although the authorities had serious concerns about high global prices of oil and other commodities pushing up domestic inflation. The possibility of a worsening of the international financial turmoil, which had surfaced in mid-2007 and deteriorated a year later, also posed a threat to maintaining the rapid pace of growth.
10.23 According to ADB’s recent report, Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2009, India's economic growth will slow in 2009, down from 7.1% in 2008, but should speed up next year as the global economy recovers and lower local interest rates spur private investment and manufacturing and adds that fiscal stimulus measures that the government announced between December 2008 and February 2009 should allow India's growth to rise to 6.5% in 2010.
10.24 Inflation should remain low in the current and coming fiscal years due to a strong agricultural output, lower taxes on goods, and weak domestic demand. The ADO 2009 forecasts inflation of 3.5% in the current fiscal year and 4% in the coming year as domestic markets recover and international commodities prices go up.
10.25 But there are always risks and challenges ahead. Prolonged recession in the major industrial economies beyond the second quarter of fiscal 2010 could hamper India's recovery. Moreover, authorities should recognize that there is a trade off between short-term stimulus and long-run debt sustainability.
10.26 The ADO 2009 urged the government to review tax policy, the quality of public spending and the effectiveness of public programs to ensure that it has room for the infrastructure and social sector spending that is necessary for achieving rapid, longer-term inclusive growth.
10.27 According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) another fiscal stimulus package is likely to be announced in the next few months. The budget deficit is expected to balloon to 7.8% of GDP in fiscal year 2009/10 (April-March), from 6.1% in 2008/09, but the deficit will then narrow gradually, to stand at 4.8% of GDP by the end of the forecast period.
10.28 Monetary policy will likely be loosened further in 2009. Real interest rates will remain negative this year, but should become positive in 2010-13 as monetary policy is adjusted to a neutral setting.
10.29 Global capital reductions and moves to reduce risk exposure will continue to hit India hard, and real GDP growth is forecast to slow to 5.5% in 2009/10. The economy should regain
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momentum gradually, with real GDP growth forecast to average 7.7% a year between 2010/11 and 2013/14.
10.30 Notwithstanding the current global recession, which in any case affected Asia far less than Europe and North America, the medium and long term macro economic prospects for India appear quite buoyant. The following table shows the EIU’s current short term predictions for the Indian economy.
Key indicators FY 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Real GDP growth (%) 6.1 5.5 6.4 8.0 8.0 8.2 Consumer price inflation (av. %) 8.3 5.2 4.3 5.3 5.2 5.2
Budget balance (% of GDP) -6.1 -7.8 -6.7 -6.1 -5.7 -4.8 Current-account balance (% of GDP) -3.1 -1.9 -2.4 -2.6 -2.7 -2.4
Exchange rate Rs: US$ (av.) 43.5 48.5 47.4 46.8 46.0 45.5 Source EIU, August 2009
Table 10.1 Key Projected Macro-economic Indicators
Freight Corridor Rationale
10.31 This feasibility study is undertaken to provide further detailed planning and implementation support particularly focusing on developing an investment grade study as a basis for ADB financing and for management improvement of the corridor. It focuses on the route between Ludhiana and Khurja, a distance of about 400km generally in parallel with the existing IR network alignment.
10.32 Traffic on most parts of the railway network within the Golden Quadrilateral has been increasing consistently year on year such that many parts of the network now operate beyond effective capacity. Further, both passenger and freight use the same tracks (with passenger train priority) which in the context of over capacity results in additional delays and inefficiencies, especially to freight traffic.
10.33 Against the background of the importance of the rail network, the problems it faces and the national economic costs and dis-benefits imposed on the economy by such major limitations, the MOR decided to examine the possibility of two dedicated freight corridors, one connecting Delhi to Kolkata (Eastern Corridor) and Delhi to Mumbai (Western Corridor).
10.34 A separate freight corridor would allow IR to reduce freight operating costs, achieve higher speeds and permit guaranteed transit times, all of which would provide a competitive edge over road transport for some traffics and some routes. It would also avoid the need for additional highway investment.
10.35 The project would also permit more trains on the existing network tracks including express and mail services and with some additional investment such as on track, fencing and rolling stock, would also allow operation at higher speeds. The intention was, therefore, that there should be economic benefits arising from efficiency gains in the operation of the wider Indian rail network, as well as economic benefits to the economy as a whole arising from the more efficient conveyance of goods by rail and the relief of capacity demands on the road system. Additional economic benefits, however difficult to quantify, might be expected to arise from improvements in safety, reduction in pollution (and a reduction in consequential medical and other costs), and reduced inventory costs arising from faster transit times.
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10.36 The development of industry and commerce in general, and logistic centres and parks and inland container depots (ICDs) in particular would also be supported and add freight demand to that projected within the ongoing corridor development.
Socio economic and Poverty Profile
10.37 Substantial study was undertaken in the previous RITES and JICA reports and much of the work needed to (i) reflect the current project and (ii) revised alignment will be covered by the individual consultants appointed by ADB under separate contract. Liaison with the socio economic consultants is important and has been undertaken at key points.
10.38 Although there is a substantial amount of data collected in previous reports on the socio economic profile, there is rather less on poverty. However, this issue is considered fairly limited for the section of DFC under review in this assignment. Socio economic evaluation in previous reports was covered under three main headings-social impacts, natural environment impacts and pollution.
10.39 Social impacts including involuntary resettlement and splitting and marginalizing farms were seen as major issues. Alignment was designed to avoid the worst impacts but avoiding urban areas often led to other impacts on agricultural areas and on farm livelihoods. Local transport impacts were also described as significant and negative by the JICA reports especially where ROBs would cause difficulties for pedestrian and cyclists and especially rickshaws. Employment and economic impacts were seen as favourable in almost all cases.
10.40 Most of the alignment runs through flat alluvial plain with high agricultural potential. There are, however, some limited negative impacts on the natural environment.
10.41 Noise and vibration were seen as issues by many residents and affected households during the consultation process.
10.42 The JICA study initially carried out some preliminary analyses and some impact mitigation measures work on priority sections which excluded the Ludhiana to Khurja section.
Impact on the Poor
10.43 There is very little useful data provided except for some broad output numbers and almost nothing on poverty impacts in this analysis. A considerable amount of work has been done through other studies on the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor. For the eastern corridor, the JICA report merely notes that the eastern DFC will have important impacts on grain, fertilizer, limestone and cement on its north west side and impacts on coal and steel towards the south east end.
10.44 Consideration was given to incorporation of poverty impacts within the economic analysis, but given the limited data available, is not considered appropriate for this assignment given its complexity and limited use either within the economic evaluation or economic impact.
10.45 Some socio economic profile data is available but is limited for activities within the Punjab and Haryana. Previous studies had limited work done on areas of influence because (i) Ludhiana and Khurja were added to the Eastern corridor and because it is difficult to say where and how such a major project would impact socio-economic development.
10.46 Close working and liaison with the individual specialist consultants has been particularly important and their emerging findings have been reviewed where available within the study timescale.
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Specialist Consultants
10.47 Three ADB appointed specialist consultants are working on (i) social and poverty analysis, (ii) environmental analysis and, (iii) resettlement issues related to the Ludhiana Khurja section of the DFC but apart from the preliminary and summary progress report of the social/poverty consultant, environmental, resettlement and social analyses of the project have yet to be provided.
10.48 This has been discussed with the consultants during the regularly held team meetings and information and data was provided as soon as possible. Finalisation of alignment detail has been one issue that has impacted completion of this work.
10.49 Key aspects from the progress report of the social and poverty specialist are provided as follows;
Progress of Survey and Report Preparation
The following progress has been achieved so far in data collection and report preparation:
• The social survey started on 5th July 2009 and completed on 14th August 2009.
• 5300 households are covered under the survey
• The computerization of survey data is in progress.
• Consultation with district officers and NGOs are also completed with the survey Task Ahead
10.50 As per project requirement scope of work, following tasks are to be accomplished for further project preparation:
• Analysis of computerised social assessment survey data
• Compilation of FGD findings and documentation
• Documentation of consultation with district officers and NGOs
• Preparation of Indigenous Peoples (IP) screening and impact categorization checklists based on the survey findings
• Preparation of Poverty and Social Assessment (PSA) report based on the survey findings
• Preparation of Summary Poverty Reduction and Social Strategy (SPRSS) Deliverables
10.51 The following deliverables are due as per the scope of work under the assignment:
• Indigenous Peoples (IP) screening and impact categorization checklists.
• Poverty and Social Assessment Report (PSA).
• Summary Poverty Reduction and Social Strategy (SPRSS).
• Indigenous Peoples Development Plans (IPDPs) if required.
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Economic Evaluation and Economic Impact
Requirement:
10.52 The Consultant is required to “Undertake economic evaluation of the proposed project following ADB's Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Projects taking into account modal shift and diversion of existing traffic. Also to undertake sensitivity analysis for various scenarios such as changes to cost, generated and diversion traffic, modal shift, construction period, etc.”
Previous Studies
10.53 Project economic evaluation methodology undertaken within RITES and JICA was conventional with the project’s net economic costs and benefits projected over the life of the project (2008-2042) and discounted to generate two economic feasibility indicators i.e. Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) and Benefit/Cost (B/C) ratio. No economic evaluation is required under the ongoing2 2009 Business Plan.
10.54 RITES estimated an EIRR of 34% and JICA estimated for the same Eastern corridor, that the EIRR and cost/benefit ratio reached 15.3% and 1.4 respectively which at a hurdle rate of 12% indicate that the project was economically feasible under both studies. There was considerable difference in project cost and in the underlying assumptions about the nature and valuation of benefits which accounts largely for the difference in estimated economic feasibility.
Economic Impact
10.55 Consideration of the Project’s economic feasibility also included JICA examining the macro economic impact of the project which examines the project economics but from a different perspective. In the JICA study, these impacts are not integrated into the economic evaluation described above but provide a wider and deeper assessment of the project. They also reflect their need to support the high project investment and relatively modest economic returns established under the economic evaluation.
10.56 Economic impact assessment is often a complex (Input-Output) modelling process but the JICA report considered:
• Nationwide: Induced Impact on Production - Gross Value Added.
• Government: Induced Impact on Tax Revenue.
• Industry: Induced Impact on Profit (Operation Surplus).
• Household: Induced Impact on Income and Employment.
• International Trade: Generation of increased Imports and Exports.
• Regional Development.
10.57 The JICA report concluded that the economic impact of the project, through input-output and the macro-economic multiplier effect would be very substantial. As an example, they estimated that the impact on production would be 4 times the project investment cost.
Economic Evaluation-Overview
10.58 Within the RITES and JICA studies extensive use of both rail and road networks and models was made in order to determine, among others, the economic benefits of developing the DFC.
2 A number of draft/preliminary versions of the Business plan have been prepared. It is understood from DFCCIL that (i) the BP will still be a draft but (ii) the Traffic Projections are now final.
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10.59 As noted in the Consultant’s interim reports, economic evaluation is likely to be difficult without the traffic and origin to destination (o/d) models developed within the previous studies.
10.60 However, it will be necessary to undertake an updated economic assessment as most of the parameters of previous economic evaluations have been revised and are also not focused on this section Ludhiana to Khurja, although we would expect general conclusions from previous studies to remain broadly similar as there are no major changes to the parameters quantified in the two earlier economic studies.
10.61 The initial key parameters which need to be input to the economic analysis include the projected traffic by commodity and by section of the DFC (including net and gross tonne kilometres), the economic capital cost of the project including rolling stock and annual O&M costs and rail operating costs. Benefits of the project that can be quantified include cost savings through alternative transport mode (road), and safety and environmental benefits of rail over road transport. Where necessary, some financial costs have been adapted to economic costs by use of factors from previous studies as little has changed from earlier detailed costs structures; these have been supplemented where appropriate by further research into more detailed independent studies where available.
10.62 While the view remains, and as was expressed at both Inception and Interim Report stages, that a full and complete economic analysis would be very difficult and certainly not possible within the economist’s short input, not least because there is very little consistent data or, in many relevant fields any data at all, an indicative economic evaluation would be undertaken. It must also be noted that some of the benefits and dis-benefits are difficult to quantify and depend (as noted below) on the organisational behaviour of IR or the possible reaction by the road sector to the arrival of the DFC. This relates particularly to the operational benefits and the benefits of modal shift, which are affected by both problems. In this area we have been able to make only broad estimates and explanations of the underlying considerations and factors driving the estimates. We have not, therefore, included these estimates numerically in our more general economic assessment and our findings are best considered as an overlay to that.
Analysis Methodology
10.63 As indicated above, the methodology is conventional and accords with ADB Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Projects and is based largely on updating and adapting the economic appraisal methods and techniques used in the RITES study which we regard as robust and appropriate. What has changed has been rather a review of the assumptions in the RITES and JICA work and their application to the methodology.
10.64 Unlike financial analysis, the economic evaluation considers the project from a national viewpoint and therefore considers all costs and benefits wherever borne and received.
10.65 Our methodology uses discounted economic costs and benefits over an assumed appropriate project life based on the difference between ‘with’ and ‘without’ project. The ‘with’ project (DFC Ludhiana-Khurja) costs include initial capital and annual operating and maintenance costs shadow priced and without taxes. Quantified benefits include the ‘avoiding the transport of goods by road’ and so includes ‘avoided highway building and truck operating costs’. Unquantifiable benefits include the reduction in highway maintenance and increased road congestion, both of which impact on the relative performance of road and rail in the “with” and “without” scenarios. Other benefits include the environmental and safety advantages of rail over road transport.
10.66 The Consultant has taken the project evaluation period to be the development and construction period plus 25 years of operation. Price levels for project costs are as of mid 2009 and all
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other costs and benefits are established for that time, updating the previous 2006/7 data where appropriate.
10.67 As noted, the results of the economic analysis are indicative bearing in mind the difficulty of reproducing highway and rail transport networks and extensive modelling used in both RITES and JICA studies.
10.68 A spreadsheet model has therefore been developed to update the economic evaluation that was undertaken in RITES (JICA was far more complex and therefore impossible to reproduce within this FS). This has not been a sophisticated exercise for the reasons above but ensures that this broad evaluation will be acceptable (to ADB and GOI) as a basis for assessing the broad economic feasibility of the project.
With and Without Project
10.69 Economic evaluation compares the costs and benefits of ‘with’ the project and ‘without’ the project. The difference is estimated over the project period, providing the net benefits of doing the project and with discounting, allows estimation of the EIRR.
10.70 The project ‘with’ scenario assumes the Ludhiana Khurja section of the Eastern DFC is built and operational by 2017. It is assumed that the other sections to Sonnagar are also completed before or by that date.
10.71 The ‘without’ scenario assumes that the existing corridor will be unable to carry the projected traffic and will be carried by road transport, requiring highway expansion and higher transport costs. It also assumes that the environmental impact and accident rates will be higher through increased road transport.
Incremental Traffic
10.72 The assessment of current corridor capacity in the traffic analysis above quite clearly indicates that some sections of the existing line between Ludhiana and Khurja are already at capacity. In this study there is agreement with the assumption used in the Business Plan that all traffic projected to use the DFC from 2017 will be incremental, and have used that assumption in the economic evaluation.
Economic Project Development Costs
10.73 As was noted in the Inception report, DFCCIL are not able to provide project cost data in a format suitable for a full determination of economic costs and as also mentioned previously, the consultant have, therefore, applied the parameters used in previous studies to the updated project costs.
10.74 The financial cost data prepared by DFCCIL and/or the FS team has therefore been used in the economic analysis. Taxes applied to the Dedicated Freight Corridor cost inputs ranged from 5% to 16% and shadow conversion factors ranged mainly between 0.79 (electrical) and 0.86 (civil works). By applying an adjustment factor representing the need to convert to economic project costs from financial project costs as follows:
Economic Costs (RITES) / Financial Costs (RITES) * DFCCIL Financial Costs 2009.
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10.75 The factor used, based on RITES is 0.85 (85%). The financial and economic project costs used are therefore as follows in summary are:
Item/Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total In Rs Crore
Land 149 43 21 - - - - - 213
Civil Works - - 233 575 550 427 219 73 2,077
Railway Systems - - 47 188 235 235 141 94 940
CPM - 18 26 26 26 26 26 26 176 Design and Supervision 21 21 18 11 11 8 8 8 105
Sub Total 170 81 346 800 822 696 394 201 3,511 Physical Contingency@10%* 17 8 34 80 82 69 39 20 349 Total Financial Costs 186 89 378 875 899 761 431 220 3,839 Economic Costs by Factoring 158 75 322 744 764 647 367 187 3,263 Source: DFCCIL and Consultants further breakdown by period and type
Table 10.2 Project Costs in Financial and Economic Terms by Year and Major Cost Item
Feeder Rail Routes
10.76 RITES assumed some Rs 1160 Crore in the cost of upgrading feeder rail lines to the DCF amounting to about 10% of the DFC project costs. Without analysis of coal sources and destinations, and the current status of rail access, especially the cost of any works needed to enable the operational interface between IR and the DFC to work smoothly and to create a capacity buffer between the operational uncertainties on the IR network and the tightly timed DFC operations, this cannot be assessed accurately. The Consultant has therefore, used 10% of the DFC cost which total Rs362 Crore as a possible order of magnitude cost to be borne by IR. A more refined figure would require an estimation of the costs of providing (a) holding loops at the entry and exit points to deal with late running trains, and (b) crew change facilities on the DFC network itself. In the absence of data for these items, we suggest they be considered within the sensitivity tests.
Net and Gross Ton Kilometres (NTKM and GTKM)
10.77 Based upon the data provided in the BP on projected traffic by year and section distances, the net tonne kilometres (ntkm) was estimated and is consistent with the ntkm projected by both the RITES and JICA studies. Based on Indian Railways data3, the conversion factor for Net to
3 Source: www.irfca.org ; Average net and gross weight of trains in Central and Northern Zones was 1:2.25 and 1:1.99 respectively. Canadian Rail was noted to be 1:1.85
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Gross Tonne km (gtkm) used in the FS is 1:2. These data are shown in the following table for both the Eastern corridor DFC and the subject of this Feasibility Study.
Year Section NTKM (millions) GTKM (millions)
2007 Total Project Sonnagar-Ludhiana 33,603 67,206 FS: Ludhiana Khurja 2,515 5,030 2011 Total Project Sonnagar-Ludhiana 56,227 112,454 FS: Ludhiana Khurja 5,122 10,244 2017 Total Project Sonnagar-Ludhiana 84,144 168,288 FS: Ludhiana Khurja 10,319 20,638 2027 Total Project Sonnagar-Ludhiana 122,382 244,764 FS: Ludhiana Khurja 14,379 28,758 2037 Total Project Sonnagar-Ludhiana 166,801 333,602 18,996 37,992 FS: Ludhiana Khurja
Source: Business Plan and FS Consultants
Table 10.3 Projected Net and Gross Tonne kilometres
Rolling Stock and Rolling Stock O&M Costs
10.78 Notwithstanding the DFCCIL role as Infrastructure Provider and Manager (not train operator), the RITES report included a detailed analysis of rolling stock requirements and their related operating and maintenance costs. This was for transporting commodities from estimated origins and destinations. RITES projected a cost of Rs5000 Crore (in economic terms) over the first ten years of operation. Inflated to 2009 this would amount to approximately Rs6000 Crore. The Consultant considered factoring by route kilometres or net tonne km. Ludhiana Khurja is about 19% of the total route km of the whole Ludhiana Sonnagar. Reviewing net tonne km. Ludhiana Khurja amounts to between 7% and 13 % of the total route depending on forecast year. It has therefore been assumed that Ludhiana Khurja costs to amount to 15% of Sonnagar Ludhiana costs. Total rolling stock costs amount to Rs893 Crore which has been allocated over the first ten years of operation.
10.79 According to RITES, rolling stock operating costs in financial terms amounted to Rs 0.26 per gtkm, inflating this to 2009 and applying their shadow price factor of 0.93; the 2009 cost is estimated at Rs 0.29 and is applied to the projected gtkm (shown above in Table 4.11).
DFC Infrastructure Operating and Maintenance Costs
10.80 Within the 2009 DFCCIL Business Plan, are prepared various and separate sub-reports including on Track Access Charges and on Operating and Maintenance (O&M) costs. The track Access report was submitted but omitted the section on proposed details of the access charge rates. Some use has been made of the O&M report but adapted for the Ludhiana Khurja section of the DFC as well using as the O&M costs which were subsequently provided within the BP report of August 2009. It is noted however, that the O&M costs in the business plan vary from the O&M costs prepared in the separate report by the DFCCIL consultants.
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Costs in Rupees Year 1 10 20 30 Staff Costs 1,167,830,048 1,167,830,048 1,167,830,048 1,167,830,048 PRP cost @15% 175,174,507 175,174,507 175,174,507 175,174,507 Materials Costs 1,386,597,361 1,598,647,479 2,655,579,899 3,044,123,229 Traction cost 3,176,645,423 9,132,207,539 13,220,123,866 17,308,383,133 Overheads @ 0.5% 295,312,367 603,692,979 860,935,416 1,084,775,546 Total 6,201,559,707 12,677,552,552 18,079,643,736 22,780,286,463
Source: DFCCIL Business Plan August 2009
Table 10.4 Operating & Maintenance Costs (O&M) by ten year period
Relating the gtkms for the whole corridor to costs for the whole corridor using various assumptions as to what is year 1, the BP indicates between Rs68 and Rs72 per 1000 gtkms as an infrastructure operating cost and we have assumed Rs70 per 1000 gtkms in this analysis.
Other Costs
10.81 Inflation. Mid FY 2006 based costs from RITES are updated to mid 2009 costs by 19% as follows:
Year CPI Index Comments 2007/8 5% 2008/9 10% 2009/10 6% Only Half Year Total 19% Compound Source; Various including ADB CSP, 2009
Table 10.5 Assumed Inflation to the Base Year mid 2009/10
10.82 It should be noted that in the ‘with’ scenario RITES estimated both the Origin to rail and from rail to Destination road access costs (for commodities whose origins and/or destinations were not on the DFC). The study also estimated in the ‘without’ scenario the O and D (door to door road costs) i.e. there was no DFC. Whereas the Consultant has used the estimated net ton kilometres on the DFC itself, so there should be both access to the DCF costs under both with and without scenarios. There has been no way to calculate this, however since it is likely that these two costs will largely offset each other they have been ignored as being relatively minor bearing in mind coal will be predominantly rail hauled through feeder lines whether on or off the actual DFC.
10.83 Avoided costs are included under benefits and are described below.
Benefits
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10.84 Benefits of the proposed project encompass the following;
1. Quantifiable - in this analysis quantified benefits include avoided highway capital and maintenance costs, and road transport costs savings and environmental and safety benefits of rail over road transport. These are considered as follows:
• Road construction costs
o RITES estimated the required standard of road construction as Rs7.0 Crores per km and we assumed that 350 km of upgraded roads would be required and expenditure, inflated to 2009, incurred over a 5 year period, which we have considered would be 2015-2019. We understand that RITES figures are based on studies by the Asian Institute of Transport Development (AITD); their publications and data are no longer in the public domain and their accuracy cannot be verified. A number of contemporary studies by the World Bank and ADB suggest a very wide range of figures per unit km of construction, with the RITES figures substantially above these alternatives; however, the RITES report (and indeed the WB and ADB study reports, which cover a wide variety of regions) do not make any allowance for local factors such as topography, hydrology and soil conditions, all of which would materially affect the cost of construction. Site specific costs would be essential for a robust consideration of the costs, and such data are simply not available. In the circumstances, it is probably best to use the RITES data whilst acknowledging that this area of benefit may be somewhat overstated.
• Road Maintenance costs
o RITES estimated that road maintenance costs would amount to Rs0.5 m per km. We have used this figure, inflated and incurred in relation to the highways required. As with construction costs, regional data are not available and the basis of RITES’ figure is not transparent. A World Bank project in Andra Pradesh showed very much lower costs per kilometre. However, reading costs across from the local conditions in that region to the areas served by the DFC requires a detailed study of engineering issues as with construction costs. In any case, the interpretation of both sets of figures would require them to be brought to some common output measure – what standard of maintenance was applied in each case? An earlier WB study showed that Indian roads received between 28 and 57% of the maintenance expenditure they needed, and even the WB Andra Pradesh project simply reduced the length of roads in “poor” condition. This is a material issue since the WB project showed that each 1% increase in expenditure led to a 2% increase in traffic speeds and a 5% increase in volumes. So, without knowing what output levels the RITES expenditure were intended to achieve, or the highway base condition, it is impossible to say whether the figure is overstated. It is probable that the benefits derived from the RITES figures are overstated but there are some obvious dis- benefits if reduced road traffic levels enabled the remaining flows to move faster and so compete more effectively with rail. There are no data available to enable this effect to be quantified, however. In the circumstances, the RITES figure has been retained albeit with some qualification.
• Road transport costs
o Vehicle Operating Costs were estimated by RITES as Rs 1.38/ntkm for a rigid truck and Rs 1.02/ntkm for a truck trailer. It has been assumed a proportion of the two types of truck generating an average VOC of Rs 1.16/ntkm which inflated to 2009 amounts to Rs 1.38/ntkm. The basis of the RITES figures is unknown and they do themselves quote other figures elsewhere in their report. A 2005 World Bank study “India – Road Transport Efficiency study” show a very different range of vehicle
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operating costs – nearly half of the RITES figures –and a different mix of vehicles in the Indian lorry park, with a much greater emphasis on rigids rather than articulated lorries. Much of the cost difference appears to be accounted for by the type of fuel used (cheap, adulterated fuel according to a 2008 German study cited below) and the fact that owner drivers, who constitute the vast majority of operators, do not provide for the full maintenance and eventual replacement of their assets. The point about fuel is reinforced by the evidence submitted by India’s largest logistics operator – TCI – to the WB study. A simple substitution of the WB figures for the RITES figures is not without its own difficulties, however. For example, the intended highway improvements under the “without” case, might not materialise and the resulting congestion and poor maintenance could increase lorry operating costs materially (see previous discussion on speed/condition elasticity), or alternatively the lorry parc might be modernised quite quickly with a consequent fall in operating costs. We have left the RITES figures in place, whilst noting that in a worst – “worst” from a DFC point – case scenario, vehicle operating costs avoided might be only 2/3 or thereabouts of the claimed figure, but equally could range much higher.
• Environmental benefits
o There has been insufficient time to elaborate on the environmental benefits of rail transport. Further, the timing of the environmental consultant’s inputs has not allowed collaboration on this important subject (see also other paras below), and at the time of our submission of this report, the inputs were not in fact available to us.
o RITES based their analysis on work undertaken by the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) which estimated that the health cost of road and rail (diesel) was of the order of Rs0.46/ntkm and 0,02/ntkm respectively. Electric traction was also estimated by RITES own work to deliver one third less pollutant emissions which they then converted to cost at Rs0,008/ntkm.
o The Consultant has updated these data to 2009 costs and note that environmental benefits make up between 4-5% of total benefits.
o As noted earlier, we no longer have access to any AIT data or reports, but both RITES and JICA focus almost exclusively on CO2 effects. Current thinking, for example embodied in EU directives and the EURO 1, 2, and 3 standards focus on a much wider range of pollutant emissions especially NOx and SO2, as well as CH4, all of which have serious health consequences as well as impacts on livestock and structures – effects which have been closely studied in Europe. These are particularly relevant here, as a 2008 study by the Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt “Trace gas and Particulate emissions from Road transport in India” showed. That study emphasised the high sulphurous emissions resulting from the use of adulterated fuel, poor maintenance, high sulphur content fuels, and the pervasive overloading of vehicles. Research into the monetarisation of these effects (see discussion below on the valuation of life and injury in India) is not available, but the likelihood is that the reduction in road freight vehicles resulting from DFC will make a big impact on pollution levels. The RITES figures may well understate the benefits by half.
o Neither RITES nor JICA considered the full range of environmental benefits that might arise. As EU Directive 85/337 states, such benefits should include effects on people, fauna and flora, soil/air/water and climate, and material assets and cultural heritage. Noise is treated cursorily and the costs of remediation not discussed.
o Besides listing the types of additional environmental factors that we believe should be included in any calculation of benefits – if they could be quantified for Indian
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circumstances = there are a number of important second order economic questions to be considered, such as access to health care by the affected populations.
Taking all these considerations into account, a more up to date view of the environmental benefits based on current best practice elsewhere might suggest that the total benefits might be double the estimate based on the updated RITES figures and this result might usefully be considered as an overlay to our detailed calculations.
• Safety Benefits
o RITES also based safety benefits on AIT research. However, since then the highway accident rates in India have accelerated perhaps making these benefits underestimates. However, the RITES report estimated that the cost of road accidents was Rs0.059/ntkms and Rs 0.001/ntkm for rail. These were updated by inflation to Rs0.69/ntkm and Rs 0.0012/ntkm respectively. As with other AITD- based data, the source and basis of these figures cannot now be verified. There are few data published about accident rates in India. The National Criminal Record Bureau statistics show a considerable variation in injury rates between states, with those in the DFC corridor typically 20% above the all-India average. However, the accuracy of these figures is not known’ if they contain the same definitional problems that we have noted earlier in relation to IR safety statistics, the NCRB data would require careful interpretation. Neither the Indian government nor Indian insurers appear to have issued any guidance on the valuation of life and serious injury. The available studies show a valuation of life in India ranging from USD 200 to USD 1.2m but neither figure is credible by comparison with those used in Europe and North America, for example. We have preferred to leave the updated RITES figures as they stand for want of better information on which to calibrate them. The likelihood is that the value of life and injury is quite low on the basis of future earnings foregone and the RITES figures may contain an element of overstatement.
• Inventory Costs
o These are very small as the time savings are only a few hours, and while important for passengers may mean little for freight. Nevertheless, it has been assumed that transit speeds improved from 25kph to 60kph, saving over 5 hours on the longest section. 20% interest was assumed on an average value of Rs 4,000 tonne. It should be noted that these savings are estimated generically; if the line is used predominantly by coal and bulk goods, their inventory cost in transit is trivial and any savings are to be estimated accordingly . The DFC also benefits road traffic through a reduction in congestion and a slower degradation of the highway, both of which would permit faster road speeds, so reducing the inventory for that mode, too, but the effects are much more difficult to calculate without a proper o/d matrix. Using the RITES data for lorry journeys avoided, and the WB data for annual lorry kilometrage, and assuming the DFC corridor represents about 5% of the total Indian road system, it is possible to calculate the increase in average traffic levels and, further, to estimate the broad reduction in commercial speed that would result. And, hence, we can calculate the approximate extra time and value of the goods in transit by road if the DFC were not built. That calculation indicates a figure of about USD 20m for inventory savings by road. That figure might be doubled to allow for reductions in stock holdings, and something added for the reduction in delays at level crossings through the construction of road overbridges. Together these elements might amount to USD 50m – substantially more than RITES estimated. The results of both the road and the rail calculations need to be treated with some caution, however. Two key issues which would require further extensive and detailed research are: the precise mix of the goods in transit by mode, as the rail-
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based traffic (coal for the most part) will have a much lower value than the goods on the roads; and the way in which the transport is integrated into the production process, which could have a huge effect on buffer stocking policies. In the latter case, it is more than likely that Indian power generators keep enormous stocks of coal in reserve (UK practice is for one month or more), so a few hours more or less coal in transit wouldn’t lead to any appreciable change; so far as road is concerned, we have not studied the extent to which road transport is integrated into any JIT processes. Given, the notorious unpredictability of journey times in India, it is not very likely that many production processes dependent on road transport will use JIT techniques and so buffer stocks may be quite high and the same comment applies as for coal. On the other hand, the nature and structure of the retail distribution operation in India is unknown and it is entirely possible that goods are sold only when available following a road delivery, in which case the question of buffer stocks may not arise. Our general conclusion is that the inventory savings may well be higher than RITES estimated but will remain a relatively unimportant factor in the calculation and that they depend on too many heroic assumptions about industrial and logistical behaviour to be reliable.
2. Unquantifiable - the benefits to passenger and other freight movements on the existing corridor rail lines were not quantified under previous studies but by freeing up the existing lines passenger transport will be less restricted, even though it has priority, and faster and more punctual and higher capacity able to be provided. It goes beyond the scope of the present study to determine whether these benefits are reflected in higher volumes or higher achievable prices on the rest of the network.
• Operational benefits
o There are the economic benefits to the railway of providing a more efficient and faster movement of freight. The efficiency gains arise because the shorter transit times imply a lower resource requirement in terms of crew and vehicles. Whilst it would be reasonable for these savings to reflect in some way the ratio of transit times as between freight using the DFC and freight using the classic IR network, in the absence of a full O and D survey by type of freight to show what proportion of each journey would be over the DFC, it is not possible to say what saving would be realised over what percentage of the total cost of freight transport.
o Removal of high axle load vehicles from sections of the existing IR network will also lead to track maintenance savings. Again, and for the reasons already noted - that there has been no detailed O/D study for individual traffics – this is impossible to quantify at this stage.
o Benefits also arise if the DFC project can deliver more reliable journey times, particularly for those items (such as RO/RO) which involve time-sensitive, high value goods, as shippers will be prepared to pay premium rates for enhanced reliability. If such benefits can be captured in the rates charged by IR and passed on to DFC in the form of higher access charges (i.e. a premium over straightforward cost recovery), all well and good; if not, then the benefits will accrue solely to end users in terms of reduced inventories (as noted above, these benefits may be small).
o Even less tangibly, but potentially the largest savings of all both to the railway and the Indian economy as a whole, would arise if the operational discipline necessary to enable the DFC to run reliably could be spread to the rest of the IR network, with freight running to a fixed timetable. For a variety of reasons, it is thought unlikely that these benefits would be achieved within a predictable timetable.
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o Economic gains arising from the reduction in the number of level crossings has already been discussed above. There are obvious operational benefits with economic consequences – for example, in the reduction of delays caused by accidents at level crossings. Again, estimation of these would require a case-by- case review.
3. Unquantifiable - economic impacts which were described above and which were elaborated on in the JICA report, but not quantified, include the wider impacts on economic development, job creation, tax revenues and others.
Evaluation Results
10.85 It must be emphasised that the economic analysis within this feasibility study is somewhat more limited than would otherwise be expected. Firstly, the time available has been limited and much of the input data remains provisional. Secondly, previous analyses had been able to undertake modelling of rail and road networks and thus could estimate time savings. Thirdly, the data do not exist for evaluating many of the benefits which it would be desirable to quantify.
10.86 However, the Consultant has reworked and updated the RITES study economic appraisal in line with ADB Guidelines for the Economic Appraisal of Projects, and has been able to estimate that with a hurdle discount rate of 12% the project is economically viable with a calculated EIRR of 21.5%.
Sensitivity
10.87 Sensitivity analysis is undertaken once the base scenario is finalized and has involved analysing the impact on the EIRR of changes in key variables such as project costs, traffic and operating costs. Normally switching values establish how far major variables would have to increase (e.g. costs) or fall (e.g. traffic) for the EIRR to reach the cut-off rate of 12%. Changes in variables that would increase the EIRR are not assessed as such sensitivity tests are redundant
Base EIRR 21.5%
Switching Value to Reduce to EIRR 12%
Higher Capital Costs (Capex DFC and +85% Rolling Stock) Less Traffic Carried (Modal shift-lower -30% generated traffic etc) Higher Operating Costs (DFC and +55% Rolling Stock))
Table 10.6 Results of the Sensitivity Analysis
Conclusions
10.88 The economic evaluation has been undertaken on an indicative basis but is consistent with previous studies. Although prepared on an indicative basis, the analysis, prepared according to ADB Guidelines, shows that the project is economically feasible based on the assumptions made.
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Table Economic Evaluation Summary Spreadsheet of the Ludhiana to Khurja Section of the DFC
IN CRORES
Without With
-
Other O&M Road Road Vehicle Environ DFC Rolling Working Environ Net safety TOTAL Feeder costs safety TOTAL Net Benefits Cost Maintenance Cost cost Costs Stock Expenses cost Inventory costs DFC
2007 2008 2009 2010 158 158 - 158
2011 75 - 75 - 75
2012 322 - 322 - 322
2013 744 124 - 868 - 868 2014 764 127 - 891 - 891 2015 583 3.0 586 647 108 - 755 - 169 2016 583 5.9 589 367 61 354 601 - 1,382 - 794 2017 583 8.9 1,469 57 74 2,192 187 31 - 622 149 13 1 2 1,003 1,189 2018 583 11.9 1,519 59 76 2,249 - 642 154 13 1 2 811 1,438 2019 583 14.9 1,570 61 79 2,308 - 664 160 14 1 2 839 1,469 2020 14.9 1,623 63 81 1,782 380 687 165 14 1 2 1,247 535 2021 14.9 1,678 65 84 1,842 - 710 171 15 1 2 896 946
2022 14.9 1,735 67 87 1,904 - 734 176 15 1 2 926 977 2023 14.9 1,793 70 90 1,967 - 758 182 16 2 2 958 1,010 2024 14.9 1,854 72 93 2,033 - 784 188 16 2 2 990 1,043 2025 14.9 1,916 74 96 2,101 159 810 195 17 2 2 1,183 919
2026 14.9 1,981 77 99 2,172 - 838 201 17 2 2 1,058 1,114
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IN CRORES
Without With
-
Other O&M Road Road Vehicle Environ DFC Rolling Working Environ Net safety TOTAL Feeder costs safety TOTAL Net Benefits Cost Maintenance Cost cost Costs Stock Expenses cost Inventory costs DFC
2027 14.9 2,037 79 102 2,233 - 861 207 18 2 2 1,088 1,145 2028 14.9 2,094 81 105 2,295 - 886 213 18 2 2 1,119 1,177 2029 15.3 2,153 83 108 2,360 - 911 219 19 2 2 1,150 1,210 2030 15.3 2,214 86 111 2,426 - 937 225 19 2 2 1,183 1,244 2031 15.3 2,277 88 114 2,494 - 963 231 20 2 2 1,216 1,278 2032 15.3 2,341 91 117 2,564 - 990 238 20 2 3 1,250 1,314 2033 15.3 2,407 93 121 2,636 - 1,018 245 21 2 3 1,286 1,351 2034 15.3 2,475 96 124 2,710 - 1,047 252 21 2 3 1,322 1,388 2035 15.3 2,545 99 127 2,787 - 1,076 259 22 2 3 1,359 1,427 2036 15.3 2,617 101 131 2,865 - 1,107 266 23 2 3 1,398 1,467 2037 15.3 2,617 101 131 2,865 - 1,107 266 23 2 3 1,398 1,467 2038 15.3 2,617 101 131 2,865 - 1,107 266 23 2 3 1,398 1,467 2039 15.3 2,617 101 131 2,865 - 1,107 266 23 2 3 1,398 1,467 2040 15.3 2,617 101 131 2,865 - 1,107 266 23 2 3 1,398 1,467
2041 15.3 2,617 101 131 2,865 - 1,107 266 23 2 3 1,398 1,467 EIRR 21.5% Source: Consultants Table 10.7 Economic Evaluation: Main Spreadsheet of Costs and Benefits
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Environmental requirement
10.89 The requirement is: “In cooperation with the national environment expert, quantify the environmental benefits of implementing the projects, rather than road use, to cater for demand.”
10.90 This has been under discussion with the DFCCIL/ADB individual environmental consultants but their timescale is very much behind this report study although from the Inception stage the Consultant has made efforts to liaise with them and support their work where appropriate.
10.91 A recent note from the environmental consultants states their current status is as follows;
10.92 “The Methodology for undertaking Environmental Assessment will comprise of the following steps:
1. Completion of collection of baseline condition data (Primary and secondary) for physical (climatic, geological, soil, land use, hydrology, water resources, air quality, Noise and Vibration, seismicity), Biological (terrestrial and aquatic), Bio Diversity assessment, Green House Gas assessment (broadly), Occupational health and safety assessment on workers and community, Socio- Economic assessment.
2. Undertake public consultation formal and informal
3. Identification of impacts and developing Mitigation Plans.
4. Assessing environmental benefits and developing environmental Management Plans and Budget.
5. The methodology for above is though well established. Economic assessment may get inputs with regard to environmental budget and benefits.
10.93 It is clear that the work of the individual consultants and especially the environmentalists and the socio economist could have provided further important contributions to the study but the timescales are not in line and little direct use has been made of their work in this Economic chapter.
Design and Monitoring Framework (DMF)
10.94 The requirement is: “Develop a Project Impact Monitoring framework and carry out socio economic baseline survey.”
10.95 A draft Design and Monitoring Framework (DMF) framework has been prepared for discussion. However, it is not practicable to prepare a baseline survey within the timescale allowed for the socio economic study.
Introduction
10.96 The ADB’s Project Performance Monitoring System (PPMS) has been developed by them to provide a systematic way of designing and implementing projects. The Design and Monitoring Framework (DMF), is the key element of PPMS, and is a results-based tool for analyzing, conceptualizing, designing, implementing, monitoring, and evaluating projects.
10.97 It assists structuring the project planning process and helps communicate essential information about the project to stakeholders in an efficient, easy-to-read format. The DMF approach distinguishes between the DMF design process and the DMF itself which is the subject of this section.
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10.98 The process refers to the steps involved in designing a project—stakeholder analysis, problem and objectives analysis, and analysis of alternatives. The results of the DMF process are then summarized and presented in a matrix format, referred to as the design and monitoring framework or DMF.
10.99 In ADB, the DMF, previously called project or technical assistance (TA) or logical framework, has been mandatory since 1996 and is included in TA reports and other important documents.
10.100 The DMF approach can be applied to analysis and planning of country programs, sector strategies, and program, project, and technical assistance interventions. The following sections focus on its application at the Ludhiana Khurja project PPTA level.
10.101 The end product of the analytical and planning process, based on participatory techniques, is the DMF that answers the following questions:
• Why are we doing this project (impact)?
• What is the project going to accomplish (outcome)?
• What is the scope of the project (outputs) and what key activities need to be carried out?
• What resources (inputs) are required?
• What are the potential problems (risks) that could affect the success of the project?
• What are the fundamental assumptions underlying the project design?
• How do we measure (indicators) and verify (data sources) performance?
10.102 It should be noted that all indicators have to be measurable and therefore expressible in numeric terms, in terms of quality, time, access, and cost/price or customer satisfaction.
10.103 The DMF establishes the basis for performance monitoring and evaluation during and after implementation. It is not a static planning document. The DMF is revised and updated regularly to reflect the necessary changes in project scope during implementation. Key stakeholders should be involved in all phases, from analysis and conceptualization through feasibility to final design and implementation.
10.104 This participatory process involves the borrower, executing agency (EA) and implementing agencies (IAs), other government organizations and nongovernment organizations (NGOs), the private sector, beneficiaries, and the ADB project team and consultants.
10.105 The following is a draft DMF for further development in later stages of this project.
10.8 Design and Monitoring Framework (DMF) for Ludhiana Khurja
Data Sources / Performance Targets / Assumptions Design Summary Reporting Indicators and Risks Mechanisms
Impacts: National Economic GDP growth rates Post Implementation Delivery of project is timely. Development Impacts maintained. Power provision Measuring and GOI Improved power meets targets and GDP not and State statistics Economy remains stable. generation; cost and constrained. Commodities Power supply strategy remains certainty of supply, carried largely as planned thereby leading to no power constraints on GDP targets and economic growth
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Sector Impacts: Sector activity and GDP Post Implementation Benefits passed on to Transport Impacts; expands. Measuring and GOI consumers/users. Lower cost transport of and State statistics coal and other goods
Industrial Impacts: Sector activity and GDP Post Implementation Demand for power continues Power generation expands. Measuring and GOI and coal fired power stations developed allowing and State statistics developed broadly in line with industrial targets to be 12th Plan met; Export from region of goods
Agricultural Impacts: Sector activity and GDP Post Implementation Surpluses for export are Export from region of expands. Measuring and GOI available agricultural commodities and State statistics and related good
Socio Economic Employment and incomes Post Implementation Benefits accrue to all sections Impacts: Higher GDP expanded and reduced Measuring and GOI not just higher income and and incomes and poverty levels and State statistics people outside catchment reduced poverty
Outcomes: 1. Overall expanded 1. Capacity provided. Post Implementation Delivery of project is timely. capacity and Measuring and GOI improved operation 2. Travel times and and State statistics DFC and IR fully cooperate in of rail transport schedules improved the operation of the system services allowing for both freight and (existing lines and services and expanded passengers. new lines and services). transport of major 3. Road/rail transfer Track access charges are levied commodities and freight staying on rail appropriately improved passenger 4. Safety record services. improves. 1a New freight capacity on the new lines 1b. Improved operation of existing lines for freight and passengers 1c Safety explicitly addressed and improved 2. Associated economic/industrial infrastructure promoted and implemented Outputs: 1. A new railway line 1. 430* km completed by Construction and 1. MOR/DFCCIL are effective is built between 20xx. *Exact length still overall project related in managing the various Ludhiana and under planning. progress reports; ADB implementing bodies and Khurja. Loan Review provide timely and 2. BOT/PPP designed Missions, Project effective decision making. 2. Associated into project and Completion Report, stations and operational by 20xx. 2. The facilities are built design/implementation 3. Fatalities, non fatalities team perform well. 3. Related zones are and other accident planned rates decrease 3. The contractors perform from...to.... satisfactorily. 4. An element of project is 4. Campaign organized 4. Qualified consultants developed through and implemented with advise on all aspects of PPP/BOT. results as.... system safety and advice is implemented
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5. Road/rail safety 5. Proposed institutional appropriately. through physical changes are planned design and and implemented 5. Support provided for operational including training institutional strengthening procedures is of.....staff... and capacity building maximised and especially in non enhanced. engineering areas. 6. Campaigns to 6. Socio economic avoid/prevent the participation well spread of considered and STDs/Other implemented diseases are before/during/after conducted. construction. 7. Appropriate 7. Funding is sought and institution is implemented operational with appropriately. fully Trained staff before operations start
Activities with Milestones Inputs US$ millions
1. Rail Investment Component GOI: xx
1.1 Funding processes completed on time ADB: yy
1.2 Land and environmental/social requirements completed Other: zz
1.3 Construction completed by xxx 201y
2. Private sector component(s)
Operation Phase started by xxx 201y
3. Institutional, Management and Operational Training
Implemented Before and into Operation phase
4. Other Training
Finance, marketing etc
5. Safety component
6. HIV/AIDS etc Mitigation programs
Source: Framework based on PPMS: Guidelines for Preparing a DMF July 2007, ADB
Commentary on DMF Terms
IMPACTS: Goals and Longer Term Objectives Sometimes national, generally wide and medium to long term. Usually a link between the subject project and the ADB’s Country Partnership Strategy (CPS)
OUTCOMES: Key anchor of project. What is development problem to be addressed
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OUTPUTS: Physical and Tangible goods or services delivered by the project
ACTIVITIES; These are the tasks carried out using project inputs. Main Steps and should include dates. The core activities form the basis for preparing the project implementation schedule.
Abbreviations used:
BOT/PPP: Build Operate Transfer/Public Private Partnerships GOI: Government of India IR: Indian Railways MOR: Ministry of Railways DFCCIL: Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporation India Limited STD: Sexually Transmitted Disease GDP: Gross Domestic Product DFC: dedicated Freight Corridor PPMS: Program Preparation Monitoring System
Table 10.9 Design and Monitoring Framework
Environmental, Resettlement and Socio-economic & Poverty Specialists
10.106 Each of the three ADB appointed specialist consultants (Environment, Resettlement [Social Safeguards], and Socio-economic & Poverty) will independently submit their findings and reports in accordance with their own terms of reference. The close liaison with these specialists has been to the mutual benefit of this feasibility study in providing a broader perspective to this section of corridor’s context. A summary of activities being undertaken by these specialists and some of their emerging findings follows.
10.107 Environment – As stated in the economic analysis above, the objectives of this part of the study is to assist the DFCCIL in complying with the ADB Environmental Safeguard Policies as well as Indian Environmental Regulations. The environmental specialists are carrying this out by addressing issues to highlight areas for sustaining, integrating and mitigating impacts. Some of the key issues to be further amplified in their report to be issued in early 2010 will be:
• Noise and Vibration Impacts.
• Crossing of a large number of water bodies such as the Tangri river, Markanda river, Chaudah Dhara, Yamuna river with potential for impact during construction stage on aquatic life.
• Air Pollution due to idling of vehicles (increase in crossing width and long wait time).
• Hazardous traffic conditions during construction stage at various locations.
• R & R and Safety issues even for construction of ROB (dense population close to many crossings).
• Associated occupational health issue for community and workers.
• Effect on biodiversity though of lesser magnitude (patch of Reserved Forest near the railway line at Kalanaur). Loss of green cover and agriculture productivity (Alignment passing through most fertile-belt of nation).
• Loss of physical cultural resources.
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• Change in land use pattern, hydrology of the area due to new embankment formation or detours or new alignment.
• Sourcing of construction material particularly soil for embankment formation – associated impact on land, and its productivity.
10.108 Specific environmental issues with regard to four of the proposed detours in the alignment are given in table form below:
S.No. Detours Chainage Environment issues Locations
1 Hapur 61.048-71.048 Proposed detours by corridor passing through low lying areas, existing water bodies, possible tunneling in low areas.
2 Meerut 84.693 – Proposed detour by corridor passing the 103.434 forest areas. Shifting of existing infrastructure of oil companies.
3 Ambala 296.247 – Construction of elevated track – Cantt. 300.397 associated construction related impacts
4 Sirhind 353.477 – Proposed separators pass through 357.377 existing feeder line for Nangal Dam & Canal.
10.109 Social safeguards – Key policy principles are to avoid or minimise resettlement or relocation and fully inform and consult with all communities and households that may be affected by works. It is the policy of ADB to assist governments in implementing social objectives and submit a satisfactory Resettlement Plan. A detailed census survey and Resettlement Plan is currently work in progress.
10.110 Social and Poverty Assessment – The scope of the social and poverty specialist is to prepare a Poverty and Social Assessment report together with a social strategy for consideration by the DFCCIL. It is the intention to undertake these tasks by sampling in some 52 villages and 7 towns covering all the districts and talukas of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab states in the project corridor with a total estimated number of 5402 households being surveyed.
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11. Financial Analysis
Introduction
11.1 The Project under analysis pertains to the proposed construction of part of the Eastern dedicated freight corridor between Ludhiana and Khurja. The length of the project section is approximately 400km and the estimated capital cost of the project is Rs.3864.03 Crores. The related traffic-projections, alignment, construction cost estimates, project execution schedules etc. have been dealt with in different sections of the report. This section appraises the viability of the project in terms of the anticipated Financial Internal Rate of Return [FIRR).
11.2 Large portion of the traffic projected for movement in both directions on the proposed route constitutes transit traffic whose origins and destinations fall outside the project section. Although the bulk of the movement over the project section consists of short-lead transit traffic, the entire project traffic is envisaged to be rail borne from origin to destination i.e. even beyond the proposed project section, it would move on the existing Indian Railways network or on the other part of DFC.
11.3 The other important characteristic of the proposed corridor, applicable to the route under examination is with 25 tonne Axle Load rolling stock towards the end of the 30 year concession.
11.4 Keeping this in view, for the purpose of this appraisal, a basic assumption has been made to the effect that the base year traffic will move over the project section in existing wagons. However, a one-time built-in credit has been taken for the additional benefit of reduced turnaround time of the wagons due to the higher average operating speed envisaged on the proposed project section.
11.5 The Appraisal of the proposed Project in terms of its financial viability is therefore carried out against the above background.
Approach & Methodology
11.6 The basic tenet of approach adopted for assessing the project viability has been to work out the net earnings that would accrue to the DFCCIL as a result of full implementation of the proposed corridor facility. Towards this end, all costs to be incurred and all benefits likely to accrue have been computed on a conservative note (i.e., not on year-to-year basis) over the project life of 30 years separately. In calculating the FIRR, the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) technique has been adopted.
11.7 Further, keeping in view the transit nature of movement of the projected traffic in both directions and non-availability of cost estimates for upgrading the existing rail routes outside the project section at this stage, the financial viability has been carried out for the project section (apportioned basis) only.
11.8 The FIRR has been worked out by apportioning O & M Cost based on Fixed & Variable costs and the earnings on the basis of transit turn round and lead barring the cost of construction of the project section and the hire charges of rolling stock.
11.9 Also, the FIRR has not considered the cost of up-gradation of infrastructure of the existing Indian Railways mixed traffic network route, the same has been treated as sunk cost i.e. a cost not related to the project.
11.10 While in the report, an average speed of 40 kph has been envisaged for the proposed project section, a conservative figure of 35 kph has been taken for carrying out this feasibility study’s appraisal. Further, although the running of 32.5t Axle Load trains is not foreseen in the near future, the appraisal has been carried out by not adopting the 32.5t Axle Load norm, keeping in
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view the fact that in the forthcoming decade, the technology development as well as the emerging traffic demand will potentially leave IR with no other alternative, which in turn would provide better efficiency as well as better return on the project.
11.11 The direct costs and earnings attributable to the project section have been based on computation of incremental traffic. The implicit assumption made is that traffic of the base year (2007-08) is already moving on the existing section for which it is incurring costs and also deriving corresponding benefits in terms of freight earnings. However, after the implementation of the proposed project section, not only a part of the base year traffic but most of the additional traffic (barring some short lead traffic) would move on it because of over saturation of the existing network line capacity created by the increase in the number of services on such existing routes.
11.12 Regarding the movement of base year traffic, it has been assumed that the traffic will continue to move in the existing wagons and not in the new 32.5t Axle Load Wagons for the time being. It would, however, accrue additional benefits of reduced turn around time due to the higher average operating speed of 35 kph and consequent savings in rolling stock. Accordingly, in arriving at the financial viability of the project section, this benefit has been accounted for while calculating the requirement of wagons, apart from the direct earnings that would accrue due to movement of incremental freight traffic.
11.13 The O & M Costs have been arrived at by applying the Freight Services Unit costs 2006-07 and on the basis actual expenditure incurred during 2006-07 as applicable to all Indian Railways for the concerned traction and the Zone, duly escalated to the year 2009-10. Similarly, the freight revenues have been calculated in accordance with IR notified tariff rates applicable from July 2009 and updated freight rates as notified by the Ministry of Railways for the container traffic.
11.14 All Cost and Revenue figures are based on 2009-10 price levels while the project appraisal period has been taken as 30 years, excluding of course the construction period for 8 years. In the terminal year of the project, residual values of different assets have been considered as per their economic life by applying the straight-line depreciation method. In case of assets having an economic life of less than the appraisal period, replacements have been provided after accounting for salvage value of 10% in respect of construction costs. However, land has been segregated in to handle depreciation provisions properly – land not being a depreciated asset.
11.15 In addition to the above further assumptions have been made in the course of the analysis, which are given below :
• in order to make analysis more realistic and conservative, increase in earnings and O & M Costs have been kept constant from first year to 3rd year, then from 4th year to 8th year , thereafter from 9th year to 13th year, again from 14th year up to year 18, however, from year 19th year onwards these components have kept constant for the rest of the life of the project;
• the traffic growth has been made on CAGR basis;
• all the physical parameters are adopted from the published documents of 2007-08 of the Ministry of Railways;
• capital cost phasing has been done, as it is done generally in New Line projects by Indian Railways, which is as follows :
• Civil Works 1st Year – 1 %, 2nd Year – 2 %, 3 rd Year – 10 %, 4 th Year - 24%, 5th Year – 25%, 6th Year – 21%, 7 th Year – 12% and Last Year – 5%.
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• OHE & General Electrical and S &T Works: (Works will start after 2 years of Civil works) 3rd Year – 5%, 4th Year – 20 %, each of 5 th and 6 th Year – 25%, 7 th Year – 15% and Last Year – 10%.
11.16 Khurja to Ludhiana section cannot be seen in isolation from rest of the DFC, i.e. from Sonenagar to Khurja.
11.17 Only Khurja to Ludhiana DFC Section ’stand alone’ line does not have any infrastructural value but without it renders the rest of the corridor section become financially unviable.
11.18 Hence, Khurja to Ludhiana Section of DFC is totally dependent on the rest of DFC from Traffic point of view and vice-versa.
11.19 Therefore, the financial appraisal of Khurja to Ludhiana Section may provide viability, but cannot be operated independently if considered as ‘stand alone’ case.
11.20 However, in the instant project, attempts have been made to work out a few scenarios in order to have an idea about the FIRRSs, if the project is considered ‘in isolation’ based on following methodologies in respect of Working Expenses/O & M Costs/Track Access Charge, etc.:
(i) Revenue & O & M cost (based on Fixed & Variable cost) Methodology. (ii) On the basis of ‘Track Access Charge’, etc.
11.21 Finally, as indicated in the Introduction, the project section will be part of the feeder route linking Kolkata/other loading points. It would be pertinent to mention here that no time frame has been fixed for the construction of the said Total DFC, it may take even more than a decade, which is beyond the foreseeable time horizon. Hence, diversion of any existing traffic from the existing route to DFC cannot be considered as this stage.
Appraisal of project route
Traffic Forecast:
11.22 As indicated in the foregoing paragraphs, the project viability has been carried out for incremental traffic taking 2007-08 as the base year traffic. A detailed scenario of the incremental traffic in the project horizon years is detailed in the appendices. A summary of the Commodity wise traffic, in both directions, is shown in the following table:
Total Projected Traffic Commodity 2007-08 2017-18 2021-22 2026-27 2031-32 2036-37
COAL 25.73 69.92 83.70 90.32 100.00 109.85 FERTILISER 0.31 0.41 0.49 0.57 0.66 0.76 P O L 0.60 0.89 1.10 1.33 1.60 1.87 SALT 0.42 0.51 0.55 0.59 0.63 0.66 CEMENT 1.09 2.16 3.13 4.44 6.22 8.57 FOODGRAINS 1.88 2.21 2.44 2.64 2.86 3.11 MISC. 1.68 2.19 2.78 3.14 3.56 3.93 RO RO 0.00 10.02 28.50 31.89 44.44 47.83 IRON & STEEL 4.98 10.34 15.14 21.66 30.51 42.18
T E Us 0.74 1.62 3.89 5.65 8.04 11.20 Grand Total 37.43 100.27 141.72 162.23 198.52 229.96
Table 11.1: Commodity wise Projected Traffic (In million tonnes) [ Annexure – I ]
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Incremental Traffic Commodity 2007-08 2017-18 2021-22 2026-27 2031-32 2036-37 COAL -- 44.19 57.97 64.59 74.27 84.12 FERTILISER -- 0.10 0.18 0.26 0.35 0.45 P O L -- 0.29 0.50 0.73 1.00 1.27 SALT -- 0.09 0.13 0.17 0.21 0.24 CEMENT -- 1.07 2.04 3.35 5.13 7.48 FOODGRAINS -- 0.33 0.56 0.76 0.98 1.23 MISC. -- 0.51 1.10 1.46 1.88 2.25 RO RO -- 10.02 28.50 31.89 44.44 47.83 IRON & STEEL -- 5.36 10.16 16.68 25.53 37.20 --
T E Us -- 0.88 3.15 4.91 7.30 10.46 -- Grand Total 62.84 104.29 124.80 161.09 192.53
Table 11.2: Commodity wise Projected Incremental Traffic (In million tonnes) [ Annexure – I ]
Project Cost
11.23 The costs to be incurred on the project mainly comprise the cost of construction of the project section (including its Civil Engineering, Land, S&T and Electrical General, O H E components, and the O&M costs. The different cost components have been further detailed out in the subsequent paragraphs.
Cost of Construction
11.24 The Capital Costs are divided into following heads:
• Land;
• Civil and Communication costs that need to be incurred in order to lower the man-power costs during O & M;
• Total Cost of Civil Engineering;
• Cost of Signalling and Tele-Communication and
• Cost of Electrical General and O H E
11.25 The capital cost for construction of the DFC Line, from Ludhiana to Khurja including land costs works out at Rs.3864.03 Crore. The details of costs are brought out in the relevant sections. A summary of the cost of construction of the project section, including land costs, are shown in the following table.
ITEMS COST (Rs Crore) Civil 2697.60 Land 211.67 Electrical General 62.86 Electrical OHE 481.92 Signaling & Telecommunication 410.00 TOTAL 3864.03
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Table 11.3: Cost of Construction (including land purchase) [Annexure – 2]
11.26 The actual construction period has been taken as EIGHT years, assumed to be starting from 2010-11. The project section is therefore, expected to be fully operational from 2017-18.
Rolling Stock Requirement
11.27 The proposed route is required to cater to the movement of 25-Tonne Axle Load Wagons. Accordingly, the norms adopted for working out the wagon and locomotive requirement is shown in the following table:
Locomotives Wagons Characteristics Characteristics Trainload Commodity No. of Gross Payload Tare (tonne) No. per Type Wagons per Weight Type (tonnes) (tonnes) train Train (tonnes) Coal BOXN 58 65 25 90 3770 WMA 7 2 P O L BTN 45 48 27 75 2160 WMA 7 2 Steel BRN 48 62 23 89 2476 WMA 7 2
Fertiliser BCN 41 62 27 89 2542 WMA 7 2 Foodgrains BCN 41 62 27 89 2542 WMA 7 2 Cement BCN 41 62 27 89 2542 WMA 7 2 Salt BCN 41 64 27 91 2624 WMA 7 2 Container BLC 40 25 19 44 1000 WMA 7 2 Misc. BCN 41 64 27 91 2624 WMA 7 2 Table 11.4: Norms for working the Rolling Stock Requirement
11.28 In wagon requirement, an empty return ratio (ERR) of 30% has been taken for all types of wagon movements respectively. For arriving at the turn round time, it has further been assumed that the average speed of 30 kmph and 35 kmph would be attained on the project section and existing routes respectively. Based on the norms indicated above, the wagon requirement has been arrived at for each of the commodity for both directions separately. In respect of locomotives, the requirement has been worked out for both the directions separately by adopting the norm of ‘Engine kms per day per goods engine in use’ from Annual Statistical Statement (2007-08). This has been duly inflated by speed differential on the existing and project section for arriving at the locomotive requirement on project section. Details of rolling stock requirement thus worked out in terms ‘Wagon Days’ are year – wise detailed in the table below.
Years Wagons Days
2017 – 18 6472943
2021 – 22 7613638
2026 – 27 8659882
2031 – 32 9715059
2036 – 37 10799724
Table 11.5: Used for Rolling Stock requirement. – Goods O & M Cost Assumptions and Methodology
11.29 The calculation of O & M cost takes inputs of Technical Details and Number of Trains projected. Technical Details comprises of following Facets of the Project:
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Sl. No. Characteristics
1. Length of Section (in Km.)
2. Single Line
3. Equated Track Km.
4. No. Bridges in Meters separately for Major and Minor
5. Mode of Traction Electric / Diesel
6. Type of Signalling and Inter-locking
7. No. of Signalling Units
8. No. of Telecom Units
9. Sectional Speed
10. No. of Projected Goods Trains
11 Railway Jurisdiction of Project.
11.30 Cost Components : Total O & M Cost comprises of following components;
a) Cost of Staff Establishment, both direct and indirect; b) Cost of Material required for maintenance of various assets and c) All Variable Cost, incurred for running Freight Services . [Annexure – 11 & 12]
11.31 Estimate of Staff Cost : Deployment of following categories of Railway Staff has been taken into consideration : [Annexure – 13 & 14]
Traffic transportation,
Traffic Commercial,
Engineering,
Signalling & Telecommunication,
Electrical Traction Distribution,
Electrical General,
Accounts,
Personnel.
11.32 Number of Staff is estimated as per Hours of Employment Rules (HOER) in case of Traffic Transportation and Engineering and on the basis of Mechanised Track maintenance as notified by MOR, vides their letter No. 2001/Track/iii/TK/4, Dated 05.09.2001 and as per prevailing norms/benchmarking on concerned Zonal Railway.
11.33 The Engineering staff has been derived, based on ETKM obtained from the Northern Railway or by taking 1.5 X Length of Project corridor.
11.34 In the case of TRD, number of staff is calculated @ 0.4 persons per traction km according to MOR letter No. 2001/Elect.(G)/138/3, Dated 05.11.2002.
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11.35 Railway Staff Cost consists of actual sum of pay, TA, over time, bonus, etc., which is payable through regular salary. The cost of overheads, like Pension and Gratuity (P & G) @ 8.5% and Medical @ Rs.2463.00 per person per annum as notified by MOR for 2003-04, has been separately calculated and added in overall cost, duly escalated to the level of 2009-10. The Staff Cost has been calculated @ Rs.183590.00 per person.
11.36 Cost of Material : Cost of Material required for operation and maintenance has been estimated approximately based on Unit Cost of maintenance taking actual cost of maintenance on Northern Railway for 2006-07 on the basis of :
Equated Track km. (ETKM),
Number of Block Stations,
Number of Signalling /Telecom Units falling along the alignment.
11.37 Variable Cost : As rolling stock of I R will be freely moving over the project section, cost of locomotives and wagon hire charge as applicable for inter-railway financial adjustments has been taken into account. Further, five additional components of variable cost has been estimated, viz., Running Repair charges for wagons, cost of traction, cost of crew, cost of Documentation and cost of compensation/claims. Separate scenario has been given by taking the wagon/loco hire charges with element of interest. On a conservative note, the Financial Analysis has been done with these assumptions. Variable Costs likely to be incurred on operation and maintenance of the project section have been calculated on the basis of freight service unit costs incurred on All Railways (BG) as brought out in the ‘Summary of the End Results: Freight Services Unit Costs 2006-07’, published by Ministry of Railways (Railway Board) and as per Northern Railway norms. The same are shown in the table
PARAMETER/FACTOR VALUE for 2017-18 UNIT
(in Rs.)
Wagon Hire Charge with 424.00 Rs. Per wagon day in Interest use
Wagon Repair Charge as 56.00 Rs. Per wagon day per NR figures (4 Wheelers)
Loco Hire Charge with 1008.47 Rs. Per engine hour Interest
Crew Cost 2.57 Rs. Per 1000 GTKM
Cost of Documentation 10.36 Rs. Per 10 wagons Loaded
Compensation Claims 36.13 Rs. Per 1000 NTKM
Electric Traction Cost (SEC) 4.43 Rs. Per 1000 GTKM
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PARAMETER/FACTOR VALUE for 2017-18 UNIT
(in Rs.)
Speed of Goods Trains as 35 In KMPH per NR value
SEC as per NR value, 5.39 Rs. Per 1000 GTKM including Lube Oil & Other Stores
Table 11.6 Variable Cost Norms (Goods) ( 2006-07/2007-08) [Annexure–3 to7 &15]
11.38 The DFCCIL Business Plan dated June and August 2009 and the Operations & Maintenance Cost commentary document are currently under review and may have an impact on the following analysis and comment. However, the Fixed Costs are shown below in Table 11.7:
FOR 2017-18 Rs Crore
1 Civil Engineering 2.09 2 Electrical General & Electrical O H E 2.92 3 Cost of Signalling & Tele-communication 1.48 4 Traffic & Commercial Costs 0.79 5 Escalation Factor (for 2009-10 over 2007-08) 34.98% Table 11.7: Fixed Cost Norms ( 2007-08) [Annexure – 3]
11.39 The terminal costs worked out separately for the project section is detailed in table 4.22. Similarly, the Gross Tonne Kilometres (GTKMs) and wagon days for working out the line haul and wagon maintenance costs have been worked out in detail, separately for the Project Section.
11.40 Based on the costing norms given in table 4.21 and 4.22 the GTKMs, the O & M Costs for moving the projected traffic over the project section has been assessed and the same is brought out in table 11.8 for Goods freight services:
INDICES 2017-18 2021-22 2026-27 2031-32 2036-37
GTKM (in ‘000) 59556523 69806843 79870008 89275201 99225224
Wagon days 6472943 7613638 8659882 9715059 10799724
O & M Cost ( Rs. In Crore) (Rs. In Crore)
Cost of Documentation per 10 Wagon 4.21 5.37 6.18 7.53 8.80
Cost of Crew 1.53 1.79 2.05 2.29 2.55
Cost of Lub & Other Stores 5.73 6.72 7.69 8.59 9.55
Loco & Wagon Hire Charges 400.26 471.30 538.01 602.34 669.86
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INDICES 2017-18 2021-22 2026-27 2031-32 2036-37
Cost of Running Repair of Wagons 119.51 140.56 159.88 179.36 199.38
Traction Costs (Electric) 201.57 236.26 270.32 302.15 335.82
Cost of Compensation Claims 14.74 17.26 19.73 22.12 24.59
Cost of Staff 31.65 33.23 34.89 36.63 38.46
Civil Engineering Costs 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09
Electrical General & O H E 2.92 2.92 2.92 2.92 2.92
Cost of Signalling & Tele-communication 1.48 1.48 1.48 1.48 1.48
Cost of Traffic & Commercial 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 Total O & M Cost (Project) 786.48 919.78 1046.03 1168.30 1296.31 Table 11.8: O & M Costs ( Goods) [Annexure - 3 & 1]
11.41 The Hire Charges of wagons and locomotives debitable to the project against the stock requirement indicated in the above table for the project section are shown in the following table:
Unit Costs Total Numbers ITEM (in Rs.) 2017-18 2021-22 2026-27 2031-32 2036-37 Wagons 424.00 6472943 7613638 8659882 9715059 10799724 Locomotives 1008.47 1247491 1472359 1693926 1888249 2101754
Table 11.9: Rolling Stock Numbers – Goods [Annexure - 3]
Total cost ( Rs. In Crore) ITEM 2017- 2031-32 2036-37 2021-22 2026-27 18 Wagons 274.45 322.82 367.19 411.92 457.91 Locomotives 125.81 148.48 170.83 190.42 211.95 Total Rolling Stock Cost 400.26 471.30 538.00 602.34 669.86 Table 11.10: Rolling Stock Hire Charges Costs – Goods [Annexure - 3] Residual and Replacement Costs
11.42 For estimating the residual/salvage value in the terminal year of the project, the straight-line depreciation method has been followed. Likewise, replacement cost has been worked out only for such of the assets whose economic life is less than the project life of 30 years and the same have been duly accounted for. The anticipated life of the different assets is brought out in the following table:
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Assets Life (Years)
Civil Works other than Rail Fastenings: Bridges 120 Earthworks 60 Buildings 60
Rail Fastenings 30 S & T Works 30 Electrification 30 Wagons 35 Locomotives 35 Table 11.11: Economic Life of Assets
Track Access Charge (TAC)
11.43 One of the key aspects of the DFC scheme will be the charging of access charges to IR for the operating of freight trains on the network. The setting of access charges will be done on the basis to ensure that the charges are efficient and fair, ensuring that DFCCIL is able to operate as a commercially viable undertaking and is adequately incentivised to drive down operating and maintenance (O&M) costs.
11.44 Railway infrastructure is a natural monopoly owing to the fact that as production increases, long term marginal costs fall. This means that the marginal cost will mostly be lower than the average cost. If unrestricted competition occurs the prices will have a tendency to be lower than the average cost and this will not allow more than one operator. An unregulated monopolist is normally expected to overprice its services.
11.45 The key goals of infrastructure pricing can be summarised as:
• to recover the efficient cost of infrastructure capacity provision;
• in a manner which interprets to users, the marginal costs of their usage, and thus leads to optimal capacity changes by the owner ;
• to leave the cost of excess capacity with the agency responsible for its retention or management; and
• to maximise the cost covering use of the infrastructure.
11.46 In practice this is complicated by:
• High “fixed” costs of retaining infrastructure ready for use which restricts the ability of the infrastructure manager to efficiently provide capacity – effectively determining appropriate floor and ceiling prices.
• Effectively controlling and determining efficient costs for capacity provision given the infrastructure owners monopoly powers over users.
• Determining rules for capacity allocation priorities, value of capacity and hence, charge for allocation.
• Optimising current capacity pricing – reflecting sunk costs of existing capacity, short and long run marginal costs.
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11.47 Thus, summarising the principles outlined above, the charging system has to have the following characteristics:
• Fairness
• Transparency
• Simplicity
• Affordability
• Provide incentives
11.48 A simple and rational charging system will be more readily understood and accepted than a complex one. A simple charge per gross tonne km (GTkm) or per train km or per train movement, for example, would be clearly understood. Additional complexity may be needed for cost recovery reasons or to provide incentives, but even then, a simple charging system is desirable to avoid perversities of high administration costs with minimal cost/performance benefit.
11.49 Charges have to be affordable, they have to be set having regard to the costs of carrying freight by alternative modes (for example, by road) or by other railways (in this case the existing IR network).
11.50 The charging system must incentivise the operators to operate more rail services on the infrastructure, so long as they covered their marginal costs and make a contribution towards the railway’s fixed costs. It must also incentivise the infrastructure owner to drive down operating and maintenance costs. It must also incentivise the operator to run trains to the published schedules and maintain reliability.
11.51 When regulating the pricing of railway infrastructure, the legislator has basically to choose between two extremes - full cost pricing and marginal cost pricing and/or average costs.
Marginal Costs:
11.52 Under Marginal Cost pricing, charges are set at the cost that is directly incurred as a result of operating the train service (that is the marginal cost resulting from operating the service). Further, additional charges may be made to reflect: the scarcity of capacity during periods of congestion: the cost of the environmental effects caused by the operation of a train; and that charges may be averaged over a reasonable spread of train services and times. Specific exceptions may be made to these principles to obtain full recovery of costs and for specific investment projects.
11.53 There is a theoretical economic argument underlying marginal cost pricing in that charging users for the marginal costs they impose would facilitate efficient use of existing infrastructure. Those for whom the benefits exceed marginal costs would be willing to pay and it makes little sense to carry traffic that cannot pay the marginal costs it imposes on the network in terms of wear and tear and train planning.
11.54 There are reasons why marginal cost pricing might not be appropriate:
• In a declining cost industry – such as rail – where there is a variable cost per unit of c and fixed overheads of K, so that total Costs = cQ + K (where Q is the output quantity), marginal cost pricing would set the price at c , which would result in a loss equal to K. The fixed costs would not be recovered.
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• For marginal cost pricing to work at its optimum, the price should cover social (external) costs as well as internal costs. In the transport sector, and perhaps more important in the context of road transport than rail, principal external costs are those of accidents, congestion, air pollution and global warming. These are less well known than internal costs and there would be difficulties in estimating them.
11.55 There are two main methods for estimating infrastructure marginal costs for train operations. One is to use econometrics and formulate a cost function and then estimate the parameters of the function by statistical methods (regression analysis). The other one is to calculate the marginal cost based on combination of accounting data and engineering information.
Average costs
11.56 For firms or industries with increasing returns to scale, marginal cost pricing will result in losses being made. Average cost pricing can be shown to be best in terms of overall welfare (efficiency) given a need to break-even. Average costs would be determined by taking the total fixed and variable costs allocated to a market and dividing by the number of units produced in that market.
11.57 Average cost pricing would be a relatively simple approach and would meet the criteria of fairness, transparency and simplicity. It is less clear that it would be affordable in all markets and it would not provide incentives for new services which would have to bear a full share of fixed as well as variable costs.
11.58 The following charges are levied to recover variable costs:
• Variable usage charges – to cover wear and tear to track and non-track assets associated with the volume and type of traffic (including renewals). These are levied as network-wide averages per gross tonne km (GTkm) but are dis-aggregated by type of rail vehicle. There is no dis-aggregation by section of the network or by asset type in usage charges.
• Traction electricity charges and electrification asset usage charges, with asset usage costs recovered through a mark-up to the traction electricity charge, and
• Capacity charges to reflect the performance regime costs of congestion.
11.59 For modelling purposes it may be assumed a real rate of interest of 3 % on Equity. The marginal costs for track usage have been estimated based on our assessment of the costs for permanent way, overhead line equipment, signalling, as well as the track renewal costs. Assuming that that the marginal cost is linear the marginal cost will equal the average variable cost. The average variable cost (Rupees/GTkm) for staff and materials has been derived from our estimates of total staff costs and material costs.
• The ‘Track’ cost is calculated by dividing the track renewal cost by the number of GTKM the track will carry under its useful life. This cost will be calculated as an average for the whole DFC.
• The ‘Electricity’ cost is calculated by adding the average maintenance cost for distribution of electricity to the cost for electricity.
• The ‘Traffic Control’ cost is the cost for train control. It is calculated as a variable fee, i.e. Rupees per train km. Cost Escalation:
11.60 India is currently undergoing very rapid economic growth, resulting in large increase to real prices. The cost for labour and energy will continue to increase in real terms. However given
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the overall increase in real process, the TAC model needs to be regularly updated during the operational phase of the project. The traffic volumes also projected to increase rapidly which means that the mark-ups for fixed costs need to be adjusted over time.
11.61 In a over simplified note, if it is assumed that the Net Earning is shared between I R and DFCCIL in 50:50 ratio, the FIRR works out to 9.96% and if the Net Earning is distributed in 40:60 ratio respectively, the FIRR would look like 11.13%, whereas if the ratio becomes 30:70 respectively, the FIRR would be 12.16 %. The hypothesis developed here for a TAC model is only a stress test on the freight collected by IR (the user) from which the TAC would eventually flow after meeting its own O & M expenses and a margin for itself. The test results indicate that the TAC model would be sustainable.
11.62 The actual computation of TAC would be based on costs directly incurred as a result of operating the train service, which may include recovery of the costs of specified investments, allowance for the grants, if any, cost elements, such as maintenance and renewal charges levied per GTKm., train planning and operations, etc. The model would also impose appropriate penalties on the user and the service provider to ensure running of trains to schedule, optimum use of infrastructure and its availability and reliability.
11.63 Keeping in view of the above theoretical background, a simplified model has been developed in order to arrive at the TAC. The IR will incur certain O & M costs [Annexure - 16 ] to run the freight trains on DFC with its own Rolling Stock, such as:
(a) Cost of major maintenance of Wagons and Locomotives; (b) Cost of Other Transportation Services, etc.
11.64 The DFCCIL’s O & M cost has already been worked out in the previous Sections of this Chapter. If these two O & M costs are subtracted from the Gross Traffic Earnings, net benefits would be arrived at. Now this ‘Net Benefits’ can be shared between I R and DFCCIL, which in turn may be termed as TAC for DFCCIL. This can be shown in the following table:
Rs. In Crores Year Gross Traffic Earning O&M Cost of DFCCIL O&M Cost of I R Net Earnings (4) (1) (2) (3) = (1-2-3) 2017-18 1611.86 786.48 670.18 155.20
2021-22 2557.93 919.78 788.28 849.86
2026-27 3254.41 1046.03 896.61 1311.77
2031-32 4116.40 1168.31 1005.86 1942.24
2036-37 4921.49 1296.31 1118.16 2507.02
Table : 11.12 Net Earnings for TAC Charges. [Annexure - 16 ]
11.65 If it is assumed that the Net Earning is shared between I R and DFCCIL in 50:50 ratio, the FIRR works out to 9.96% and if the Net Earning is distributed in 40:60 ratio respectively, the FIRR would look like 11.13%, whereas if the ratio becomes 30:70 respectively, the FIRR would be 12.16 %. [Annexure – 17 to 17B ]
11.66 Thus, it may be concluded that the hypothesis developed here for TAC model is workable.
Project Benefits
11.67 The benefit that would accrue to DFCCIL would be through freight earnings due to hauling of incremental traffic earnings (at Table 11.14). The freight earnings have been arrived at by
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adopting the Freight rate per tonne applicable on Indian Railways with effect from July 2009 as per rates published in Goods Tariff No. 44 (Part II).
11.68 In respect of container, the distance slab wise twenty foot equivalent Units (TEU) rates on wagons owned by the respective parties have been applied. The earnings thus arrived at by taking the total lead from origin to destination has been apportioned in respect of the project section. The commodity details of the freight earnings thus arrived at are brought out in table 11.13. A summary of these Freight earnings of the project section is shown below:
Projected Gross Traffic Earnings (Rs. In Million) Commodity 2007-08 2017-18 2021-22 2026-27 2031-32 2036-37
COAL 20731.80 34038.22 39256.38 44121.04 48552.13 53241.80 FERTILISER 35.10 46.50 54.90 64.30 74.60 85.70 P O L 116.10 170.80 211.50 255.40 307.10 360.20 SALT 42.20 51.10 55.40 59.20 62.70 66.40 CEMENT 149.00 294.20 426.30 605.10 848.10 1168.50 FOODGRAINS 280.50 329.80 364.30 393.50 427.40 464.80 MISC. 233.60 304.50 386.90 437.60 495.30 546.90 RO RO 0.00 1388.50 4203.30 4598.90 6502.70 6898.40 IRON & STEEL 920.80 1912.70 2802.30 4008.60 5645.50 7806.60
T E Us 76.90 168.30 404.00 586.50 834.50 1161.60 Grand Total 22586.00 38704.62 48165.28 55130.14 63750.03 71800.90 Table 11.13: Gross Freight Earnings [Annexure – 1]
Incremental Projected Traffic Earnings (Rs. In Million) Commodity 2007-08 2017-18 2021-22 2026-27 2031-32 2036-37
COAL 13306.42 18524.58 23389.24 27820.33 32510.00 FERTILISER 11.40 19.80 29.20 39.50 50.60 P O L 54.70 95.40 139.30 191.00 244.10 SALT 8.90 13.20 17.00 20.50 24.20 CEMENT 145.20 277.30 456.10 699.10 1019.50 FOODGRAINS 49.30 83.80 113.00 146.90 184.30 MISC. 70.90 153.30 204.00 261.70 313.30 RO RO 1388.50 4203.30 4598.90 6502.70 6898.40 IRON & STEEL 991.90 1881.50 3087.80 4724.70 6885.80
T E Us 91.40 327.10 509.60 757.60 1084.70 Grand Total 16118.62 25579.28 32544.14 41164.03 49214.90
Table 11.14: Incremental Freight Earnings [Annexure – 1]
11.69 In addition to the freight benefit, the Indian Railways would also earn savings in Rolling Stock O & M and capital cost on account of moving the first commercialisation year traffic i.e., 2017-18 on the proposed project section. These savings would be solely due to achievement of higher speed on the project section as a result of better operating conditions which in turn will reduce the turn round time. The savings on this account have been reckoned.
Financial Rate of Return (O & M Cost based on Fixed and Variable Cost Methodology)
11.70 The Project Capital Costs, Earnings and O & M Costs have been placed in the form of a cash- flow statement and FIRR has been arrived at by using the Discounted Cash-flow Technique.
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The cash flow statement for the project section is indicated in table 11.12. The Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) so arrived at for the project section is shown in the following table:
Project FIRR (%)
Project Section (Base Case) 20.73%
Table 11.15 : Project FIRR [Annexure – 8] Sensitivity Analysis
11.71 A sensitivity analysis has been carried out to ascertain the down side risk as well as measuring the impact of variation of certain crucial factors (viz.capital cost of the project, benefits of the project, etc.) influencing the project FIRR. The values of FIRR as a result of changes in these parameters are summarised in the following table:
FIRR Sl.No. Sensitivity Case Project Section (In %age) 1 Base case 20.73 2 Increase in Capital Cost by 10 % 19.75 3 Decrease in Benefit by 10 % 19.65 4 Combination of (2) & (3) 18.71 5 Increase in Capital cost by 20 % 18.89 6 Decrease in Benefit by 20 % 18.49 7 Combined effect of (5) & (6) 16.78 Increase in Capital cost by 30 % and 8 14.90 Benefit decreased by 30 % Increase in Capital cost by 20 % and Decrease 9 17.87 in Benefit by 10 %
10 Decrease in Benefit by 30 % 17.22
Increase in Capital cost by 10 % and Decrease 11 16.36 in Benefit by 30 % Increase in Capital cost by 20 % and Decrease 12 15.59 in Benefit by 30 %
13 Increase in Capital cost by 30 % 18.11
Increase in Capital cost by 30 % and Decrease 14 17.12 in Benefit by 10 % Increase in Capital cost by 10 % and Decrease 15 17.58 in Benefit by 20 % Increase in Capital cost by 30 % and Decrease 16 16.06 in Benefit by 20 %
Table 11.16 : Sensitivity analysis [Annexure – 9 & 10]
11.72 As can be seen from Table 4.16 that, in worst case scenario, when the costs increased and earnings decreased by 30 % each, the project FIRR works out to 14.90 % which is fairly above the benchmark level of FIRR (i.e., 12 %). Whereas, the base case FIRR (i.e., 20.73 %) is well above the existing opportunity cost of the capital.
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Conclusions
11.73 From the foregoing examinations of this appraisal, the following conclusions are drawn:
• The construction of Khurja to Ludhiana section of DFC Project is financially viable in terms of the FIRR (i.e.,20.73 %), and the project retains its viability even in the situations, when the costs are inflated and corresponding benefits are depressed by 30 % each (i.e.,14.90 %).
• Thus, it is implied that all other FIRR combinations of Sensitivity analysis tests of the project proposal would lie between 20.73 % and 14.90 % range, which in turn proves that the down-side risk factor on the capital investment of the project is very low or almost nil.
• It may also be pointed out that the indicative TAC model developed in the foregoing, also provides healthy FIRR of 12.16 %, when the NET earning sharing ratio between I R and DFCCIL is 30:70, respectively. DFCCIL would be comfortable in order to service the debt. However, ultimately the revenue sharing decision would be taken by the client and the service provider, i.e., DFCCIL.
• In view of the above, the project for construction of KHURJA – LUDHIANA Section of the DFC Project may be considered for implementation.
Financial Management in DFCCIL
Background
11.74 Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporation of India (DFCCIL) is a Special Purpose Vehicle set up under the administrative control of Ministry of Railways to undertake planning & development, mobilization of financial resources and construction, maintenance and operation of the Dedicated Freight Corridors. DFCCIL was incorporated in October 2006 under Indian Companies Act 1956.
11.75 DFCCIL has been delegated adequate financial and executive powers for smooth operation of the Company. DFCCIL has plans to put in place efficient practises for project planning, appraisal, transparent bidding processes, effective contract management and various guidelines for procurement under ADB, WB and JBIC Loans in addition to the existing project and financial management systems developed in house by DFCCIL and the best corporate practices in vogue in other railway construction PSUs.
Sources of funds
11.76 DFCCIL has been provided with an authorized share capital base to enable the organization to leverage its equity for project financing through long term debt. Ministry of Railways has also been allotting funds to DFCCIL from its own surplus through the Capital Fund which will reduce the requirement of debt. The equity of DFCCIL comes from the Ministry of Railways (in turn from MOF through GBS) which includes a loan from WB and ADB. DFCCIL has entered into a MOU with Ministry of Railways to facilitate the financing, execution of DFC and for establishing a revenue stream for DFCCIL. DFCCIL has been delegated a degree of independent financial and executive powers for smooth operation of the Company. DFCCIL has also put in place the best practices of project appraisal, award of contracts, contract management and other related issues of a multilateral agency in addition to its own projects and financial management systems developed in house by DFCCIL.
Cash Flow Management
11.77 The monthly requirements of cash are projected by Project Implementation Units which are consolidated in the Corporate Office. The timing of mobilization of funds from these sources is
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done through a planned calendar and mid course corrections are made based on requirement of cash flows. Funds are released as per requirement by the MOR. Any surplus funds, if available, are invested in short term deposit with Public and Private Sector Banks. No long term commitments are entered into to ensure availability of funds. An Investment Committee takes decision of the surplus funds within the framework of guidelines laid down by Government of India.
11.78 DFCCIL has an authorized capital base of Rs. 4000 Crore, the paid up capital as at present is Rs.358 Crore, solely provided by the Central Govt. through the Ministry Of Railways. It is envisaged that major chunk of funding requirements will be met from loans to be provided by multilateral and bilateral institutions, viz., WB, ADB and JBIC. Any funding gap would eventually be bridged through debt sourced from the capital market and banks/Fis.
Accounting processes
11.79 Payments are processed and released at the level of Project Implement Units (PIUs). Details of expenditure incurred are reported to the Corporate Office on a monthly basis. All the vouchers are received in Corporate Office where they are accounted for centrally in Corporate Office using a software package.
Financial Control
11.80 Finance functions are being carried out at the level of both the PIU and Corporate Office. The finance functions include financial appraising of proposals. A sensitivity analysis is also carried out to analyse the implications of project cost overrun, variation in traffic arising etc. Estimates for execution of works, bills of quantities (where appropriate), proposals related to contract execution and monitoring (including examination of financial implications of conditions of contract agreements), and other proposals with regard to incurrence of expenditure by the organization.
Internal Control Mechanism
11.81 As the main activity of DFCCIL for the next five years or more would be mainly execution of projects, the Company plans to put into place an effective internal control systems for monitoring the implementation of projects including periodic review of physical and financial progress, evaluation of efficiency of cost control measures based on inputs of both the Technical and Finance Departments. The Finance and Accounts Department should also conduct reviews of the progress and nature of expenditure. Once the train services start operating on the DFCCIL corridors, suitable accounting and financial systems should be put in place in respect of operation, maintenance and renewal of assets, besides computation of revenues, either in the form of apportioned earnings or access charges, as the case may be, a system of internal audit by external firms of Chartered Accountants would ensure the effectiveness and reliability and adequacy of control systems, through Theme Audit of various projects, besides transaction audit. Since DFCCIL is a central Public Sector Enterprise, the accounting standards issued by ICAI are mandatory in compilation of accounts and preparation of financial statements. Besides there will be checks and controls through the system of Statutory Audit, Supplementary Audit by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India, Institution of Audit Committee of the Board of Directors, etc. The above mechanism will ensure transparency and good corporate governance.
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INTENTIONALLY BLANK
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12 Recommendations
General
12.1 It is appropriate to restate at the start of this chapter one of the key measures of success for this Ludhiana to Khurja section of the Eastern Freight Corridor. Success will be judged in the project being able to fulfil its objectives in a sustainable manner for the Indian economy which in turn rests on the ability of the Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporation of India Limited (DFCCIL) to both design and construct a dedicated railway infrastructure corridor and, equally importantly, implement and manage a consistent operations train-plan. That train-plan must firstly look towards the traffic forecast and ensure that all traffic movements along its section of corridor are catered for effectively and appropriately over the period of concession. The plan must then drive, and remain as the driver, for setting levels of corridor infrastructure availability to be provided over the same period.
12.2 This chapter brings together the recommendations from those areas of study that will, when acted on together, contribute to the project’s success.
Train Plan
12.3 The assumptions made in the Preliminary Draft Business Plan are based on Traffic Forecasts between 2007 and 2037 and numbers of trains have been determined on the basis of a standard train length of 686 metres (equivalent to containment within a 750m loop track) with an axle load of 25 tonnes.
12.4 To better determine the feasibility of this route, the Consultant has produced indicative plans by train graph that meet business requirements expressed in numbers of trains each way per day as illustrated in the appendices.
S. Section 2011-12 2016-17 2021-22 No. Trains each Trains each Trains each way per day way per day way per day Khurja-Meerut- 1 15 19 33 Kalanaur 2 Kalanaur-Sirhind 4 10 22 3 Sirhind- Sanehwal 1 5 11
Table 12.1: Forecast Traffic between Khurja & Ludhiana
12.5 Based on the business requirements of the corridor in the above table the Consultant has however, devised a working Train Plan that will accommodate 35/36 Trains each Way per Day (TEWPD). The Consultant’s plan has included provision for the requirement of a daily maintenance block of 4 hours that for the purposes of train planning has been assumed to be from 2300 – 0300 each day. With further review of traffic patterns it is likely that this block could be allocated and split to different time slots within the 24 hour period.
12.6 There will always be a “trade-off” between capacity (in terms of numbers of trains) and performance or operational reliability. In the realisation of this, the preparation of a Train Plan has to start from the premise of operations being conducted in an “ideal” set of circumstances where uncontrolled disruptive influences are diminished to the point of extinction.
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12.7 The ability to assess the balance of “trade-off” achieved has until relatively recently rested with the experience and ability of train planners and their understanding of the complexities of interaction between each of the individual elements of the train plan.
12.8 This has led to the development of alternative approaches to determine, preferably in advance of physical implementation of the timetable, the overall reliability of the proposed plan. These alternative approaches have been developed with assistance from computer software to the point where it is now possible to develop complex networks in “modelled” infrastructure with the full range of train planning elements represented. The consultant recommends therefore that a fully simulated modelling study be undertaken.
Operations Management
12.9 The Consultant has clarified that as a legal entity the DFCCIL will not have a duty holder’s responsibility for train crew, traction, train movements and the commodities it will carry in transit. In other words, the role of the DFCCIL will be that of an Infrastructure Provider and Manager and its Business, from this study’s perspective, has been appraised in that capacity.
12.10 Issues such as adequacy of traction/wagon provision in respect of the ‘carriage of dangerous goods’ for example, will be outside of its jurisdiction. It will require though, to be indemnified for the intrinsic track-worthiness of all traffic running on its infrastructure. This may be accomplished by permitting only that traffic which has already been accepted to run on the Indian Railway network to run over DFCCIL Infrastructure. Confirmation of such acceptance should, the consultant recommends, be made through the Indian Railway Freight Operations Information System (FOIS). The FOIS is a computerised freight management system to which the DFCCIL must be granted access by specific inclusion, the consultant recommends, within the concession agreement.
Level Crossings
12.11 Level crossings probably constitute the greatest challenge from a business perspective, to the management of DFCCIL operations. Without addressing this issue and responding to the challenges, it is the Consultant’s opinion that the DFC will not be viable. There are 189 Level Crossings in the entire section making it roughly one Level Crossing every 2km. Earlier reports had visualised no Level Crossings on the freight corridor having recommended they be replaced by either ‘Road-Over Bridges’ (ROB) or ‘Road-Under Bridges’ (RUB).
12.12 The consultant recommends that all corridor route crossings be power operated barriers crossings controlled by track circuit/axle counters that are sited at such a distance as will allow the advance warning of the approach of trains by the sounding of warning bells and/or the flashing of lights. This to be followed within a short duration of time by the lowering of the barriers. Assessment of time to clear crossings of vehicles is dependent on the maximum allowable approach speed of road and rail traffic.
12.13 It is additionally recommended that revision be made to level crossing norms as follows:
• The road surface on the approach to and across level crossings should be smooth including the portion presently under Indian Railway ownership in order for users to clear the crossing as quickly as possible and to prevent the risk of grounding of vehicles with low road clearance.
• Level crossings should have road width wider than the approach road in accordance with IR standards, at some locations this distance may be increased, to ensure better traffic flow across the railway corridor.
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• Clearer approach warning signage should be installed to level crossings with signs erected well in advance to provide users with as much warning of the existence of the level crossing as the road approach speed requires.
• Norms for considering replacement by ROB/RUB or for interlocking of level crossings should be reviewed. Considering Indian conditions of train and road movements, level crossings need to be particularly designed with user safety and speedier movement of both rail and road traffic.
• The consultant recommends below that an Automatic Block Signalling (ABS) system and a Centralised Traffic Control system be provided for the route. Such an arrangement will resolve integration issues with Northern Railways gate-men and signal/train approach interlocking.
Operational Safety
12.14 There is little doubt that establishment of a Safety Standards regime will provide a starting point for measurable improvement in safety over time as well as the relatively simple and straightforward development of acceptable practice. Without the establishment of such a safety standards regime the DFCCIL will remain reactive to incidents and accidents as they occur both during construction of the DFC and when it is operating in parallel to, and interchanging traffic with, IR lines.
12.15 Due to the almost total absence of a Strategic Safety Concept for the overall DFC, a substantial identification exercise of national data sources is required over the medium term. Without an over-arching safety concept, expressed in terms which are viable nationally being evolved by the DFCCIL, specific worksite safety items cannot be placed into their proper context.
12.16 The Consultant recommends that the DFCCIL arrange a full Strategic Safety Survey in order to provide a base plan for further ongoing evolution and action to ensure that all temporary and permanent personnel are properly briefed on joining the DFCCIL. Such a plan should be incorporated or referred to in all contractual draft documentation that should be legally reviewed to ensure compliance with best possible standards.
Centralised Traffic Control system
12.17 The DFCCIL has planned to provide a Train Management System in a central location to monitor the movement of all trains as well as monitor various maintenance parameters.
12.18 A Train Management System (TMS) is a scaled down version of a Centralised Traffic Control (CTC) system with virtually the same hardware but without modern functionality. Whilst continuing to review and refine the proposals the Consultant recommends that a CTC (with no “dark territory” as it is sometimes referred to, since colour light signalling is still proposed) with the reliability of axle-counters to prove track occupation and clearance, be specified as the appropriate solution for the single line section of the Eastern DFC. The arrangement while proving all the features required for a TMS will enable remote operation of all stations on the section with many consequential operational benefits.
Driver Safety – Signalling Auxiliary Warning System (AWS)
12.19 The Consultant observed that no mention had been made in any of the reports about safety aspects for locomotive drivers. The DFCCIL propose continuation of current IR practises with train operations dependant on the vigil of the locomotive drivers. It is well documented that lack of an AWS contributes to serious implications of damage to railway system, loss of life and loss
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of revenue as a result of interruptions to train operations during accidents. This situation is more acute since the freight corridors are proposed in close proximity to the existing railway lines. The Consultant recommends, therefore, that for freight operations of the scale proposed by IR, the drivers are provided with an AWS system linking locomotive control with the signalling system to minimise risks of any driver passing signals at danger
Signalling
12.20 The absolute block system currently proposed by the DFCCIL has the limitation of being able to run only one train in the block section however long that block section is made. The absolute block system is a safe, low-technology system, adequate for operations where the lack of a consistent timetable is not an issue. It is not a solution for train operations in a modern railway network. For increasing capacity in a consistently timetabled manner for any railway, an automatic block signalling (ABS) operation is recommended. By utilising ABS, train operators will be able to provide a line capacity of 30 - 40 trains each way in a 24 hour period over the single line section.
12.21 The actual throughput of the trains is expected to be better than the above calculations. This would be verified during the detailed system design when precise locations of signals and stations with loop lines can be decided more exactly by use of the recommended computer simulation study. Such precise timings would form part of the system design where relevant data for sections such as gradients, curves, speed restrictions along with the train characteristics like acceleration/ deceleration, locomotive horse power, brake power and train lengths etc. may be iteratively processed to arrive at inter station distances, number of loop lines at stations, inter signal distances between the auto block signals to ensure that the train timings between each sub section remain uniform.
12.22 Not only would ABS assist smooth operation of level crossings but in addition with such an arrangement provision of crossing stations at every 10km will be unnecessary. Through graphical means the Consultant has established that crossing stations could be provided at approximately every 25km. These could accommodate the required number of train movements stated in the August 2009 version of the DFCCIL Draft Business Plan. Under such a scenario locations of these stations have been shown on the 10km drawings prepared for the entire Ludhiana to Khurja corridor.
Telecommunications
12.23 The Consultant has observed that GSM-R network is being provided by Indian Railways in the Delhi - Mughalsari section. The infrastructure utilises a backbone of OFC and wireless equipment at outstations. All locomotives in the section will be equipped with the fixed equipment in the locomotive. The DFCCIL will not be responsible for the control the locomotives, crew or equipment and as such whichever locomotives operate in the DFCCIL network would belong to IR and will in any event have the mobile coverage from IR network since the proposed DFCCIL corridor and most of the detour areas is in proximity to the existing
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railway transmission line. It is, therefore, logical that no investment be made by the DFCCIL for provision of GSM-R and the responsibility for this should rest with IR. As and when the network is ready, the DFCCIL would also be benefited from the IR locomotives operating in the corridor. Some minor investments may be necessary to extend the control equipment of GSM-R to DFCCIL control equipment which can be carried out when the network is ready. Accordingly no investment on account of GSM-R is recommended at this stage.
12.24 The consultant recommends that the DFCCIL formalise an agreement with the IR network provider, Rail Tel Corporation, regarding their requirements. It is likely to be more cost effective to the DFCCIL for Rail Tel Corporation to own the DFC network requirements and enter into agreement for the financing of any new cable network additions and, if practicable, become partner for revenue sharing for commercial use of the new network. With this option, the DFCCIL would save on the capital investment for providing an OFC network.
Control Centre
12.25 The DFCCIL team specifically requested the Consultant to comment on the location of Control centre in the National Capital Region (NCR) around Delhi for setting up the control centre along with other sections of DFCCIL. This has been briefly reviewed and the Consultant comments are as under:
• The main control centre should be located in the NCR along with other sections of the DFC under traffic control of the DFCCIL. The control centre may be located at any station between Khurja- Ludhiana.
• This control centre should be connected to the OFC network at Khurja, Meerut, Saharanpur, Ambala and Ludhiana. The connectivity should be provided at these stations from the DFCCIL agreed OFC network in such a manner that in case of cable damage, all the stations are available through alternative routes.
• Sufficient band width should be swapped at two or three locations from other service providers to keep all the communication links working.
• As a safeguard against natural disasters or other emergency situations the entire control office should be replicated at any location between Ludhiana to Khurja with facility to start emergency operations whenever required by the DFCCIL main control office in the NCR region.
Electric Traction
12.26 The Consultant supports the DFCCIL proposal to use a 2x25 kV auto-transformer system for the dedicated freight corridors as the correct strategy and further recommends that the design take in to account realistic traffic projections. The provision of traction feeding substations at the starting and ending points of the corridor section should remain. The substation spacing beyond Kalanaur could be comparatively more as the projected traffic on this section is much less compared to other section. Simulation studies for power supply should be considered to confirm the exact location of traction substations.
12.27 In view of the above, the Consultant recommends that the power system on the corridor be designed to cater for the freight traffic requirement over the first 15 to 20 years of operations and augmented at such time as when traffic demand increases. No double-stack containers will be permitted on this section of corridor and the Consultant recommends that the over line structures be designed for standard MMD running single stack container trains only.
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Alignment and Civil Engineering
12.28 The Consultant supports the preferred alternative alignment that runs predominantly in parallel with the established Indian Railways mixed traffic network. Corridor detours that form part of the alignment provide grade separation from the IR network to provide independence of operation from each other as far as practicable.
12.29 The benefit of adopting the preferred alternative alignment is in its ability to reduce, as much as reasonably practicable, the environmental impact of the project both in terms of additional land purchase and its visual aspect (proximity to existing rail network) and the socio-economic impact in terms of resettlement and rehabilitation. The consequential effect of this alignment is a reduction in project finance and programme risk.
12.30 The current alignment drawings are not at a sufficient stage of development to allow detailed analysis of future double track design proposals. The Consultant recommends that the entire route be surveyed topographically with a survey width sufficient to gather information for all of the integral and extraneous works required including highway modifications and waterway training etc. A route of 400km would point to an aerial mapping survey being the most appropriate method being supplement by normal topographic land based surveying where necessary.
12.31 The Consultant recommends that once mapped the alignment design be prepared in 3D in order that all aspects of the proposals can be fully developed and the appropriate engineering solutions prepared. With a 3D model available, not only will the design be able to be constructed with greater accuracy but future maintenance can be undertaken more precisely utilising base-lined as-constructed information
12.32 The Consultant concludes that the track geometry given in the DFCCIL Performance Specification is acceptable with recommendations that the minimum horizontal radius of 700m be increased to 1000m minimum radius in order that the track is not installed at its upper tolerance limits if, in the future, line speed is to be increased above the current design limit of 100kph. This design change will also facilitate less intense track maintenance resulting from the flatter radius curvature.
12.33 The preferred alignment currently proposes detours only for grade separations at Hapur, Meerut, Tapri, Ambala, Rajpura and Sirhind. Alternative detour alignments are available at Hapur, Meerut and Ambala. The Consultant recommends that these be further analysed on receipt of all survey data and compared with the current proposals in order to determine the best total solution that takes into account not only cost but also the social and the environmental impacts of each.
12.34 To support the alignment earthworks and bridge structures are required with an estimated 32,000,000m3 of new embankment. The geotechnical investigations undertaken so far would indicate that the upper soils along the route are unsuitable for incorporation in the new earthworks or for use as founding material for new bridges (including small span structures and culverts). The Consultant recommends that the unsuitable material, estimated to amount to approximately 10,000,000m3, be mixed with other materials, such as fly-ash or cement, to increase the strength characteristics such that the unsuitable material could be reused in the new earthworks. The Consultant recommends that this aspect be quickly researched to determine the best mix recipe to allow information use in time for future construction contract(s).
12.35 Minor bridge structures are generally of concrete box form. A large number of small minor bridges are recommended to be constructed of corrugated steel pipe to provide simpler and speedier construction.
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12.36 There are 81 major bridges and 3 important bridges along the route the majority of which pass over water in the form of rivers or irrigation canals all with a number of different span dimensions and configurations. All new structures will require designs that mimic the existing spans and configurations in order that the water flow patterns in the river or canal are not dramatically altered and cause scour problems to arise. Although in these circumstances, to implement a standard design protocol cannot be used throughout, the Consultant recommends that design standardisation is put in place for the grade separations and that these viaduct structures be designed as long as practicable in order to minimise land take at and over these sites.
12.37 The design specification for the project requires all level crossings with 50,000 TVUs or more to be replaced with a ROB/RUB. In assessing the list of level crossings supplied by DFCCIL together with the proposed locations for Crossing Stations it has been determined that 99 ROBs are required to be constructed. It is understood that IR will be financing the associated design and construction costs from their Safety Fund.
12.38 In association with ROB construction the consultant recommends that adequate provision be made on the approaches and bridge spans for safe pedestrian use with the provision of footpaths raised above the highway channels by use of kerbs. Alternatively a footbridge with stairs and access ramps should be constructed to provide cross railway access for both pedestrians and pedal cyclists. Anti-trespass fences should also be erected at and for a considerable distance either side of the former location of any removed level crossing in an effort to prohibit trespass.
12.39 In association with level crossing removal and other aspects of the project, the Consultant recommends that public education sessions be arranged in towns and villages along the route to make the public aware of the dangers of trespass on the railway with a view to minimising practices generally prolific throughout the adjacent network.
12.40 The consultant recommends separating the DFC from IR with a robust fence as a means of demarcating the boundaries of each. It is further recommended that discussions be put in place between DFCCIL and IR in order to ensure that each has adequate provision for both pedestrian and vehicular access for infrastructure maintenance and renewal.
12.41 The Consultant recommends that new rail carrying structures carry ballasted track in order to reduce considerably the noise emanating from bridge structures when trains pass over them. Noise barriers should also be erected in populated areas where noise is likely to be a key environmental factor.
12.42 The Consultant recommends that all new construction, i.e. minor and major bridges as well as earthworks be constructed to double track dimensions so as to be in place to meet the aspirations of the DFCCIL Business Plan. This recommendation is based on reducing the financial and socio-environmental impacts that would result in endeavouring to construct what is basically another DFC which would bring with it all of the disruption and inconvenience of constructing a single track railway in the first place.
12.43 The installation of breather switches/expansion joints in front of track switches has been the normal practice in Indian Railways for many years. International practice is to eradicate these joints by pre-stressing the track for zero stress at high temperatures, in the region of 37oC to 40oC, with the track construction maintained relatively heavy (concrete sleepers, heavy rails and good ballast conditions particularly at the shoulders). It should be noted that breather switches/expansion joints will still be required to be installed in the track at the locations of long bridges to allow for the differential expansion and contraction characteristics of the track and bridge structure.
12.44 It has been practise to transport rail to the Northern Railway in lengths of 13.0m. These individual rails are then joined by Flash Butt methods to form rails of 39.0m which may be then
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transported to their installation site. At site they are further joined together to make continuous welded rail by either mobile flash butt methods or Alumina Thermit welding methods. For the past 4 years or so, the Indian supplier, SAIL has been producing rails of 260.0m length with Central Division being the prime user. Recently Sail has supplied 260.0m rail to Northern Division with Northern Division purchasing suitable wagons for their own fleet. It is therefore recommended that by utilising these wagons rails of 260.0m be supplied to this project corridor.
Construction
12.45 It is important to ensure full allowance is made for preparatory works in any contract packages being considered. Enabling works are by their very nature a pre-requisite to main construction. Such works will include the purchase of land for construction of permanent and temporary structures and alignment, resettlement works and enabling works to IR. A key part to such preparation will be the preliminary design. The Consultant recommends that preliminary designs be undertaken and achieve full IR approval prior to design hand-over to successful contractor(s) who will take the preliminary designs to a further detailed level prior to approval for construction being granted via, it is proposed, a robust interdisciplinary/assurance process.
12.46 With the design aspect of this project being key to timescale achievement, the Consultant recommends that a multi-discipline contract be competitively let to a design-house with responsibilities for production of a functional specification for the Ludhiana to Khurja section of corridor (in conjunction with and approval of the DFCCIL), engineering survey (including ground investigation works), construction of CAD model, civil and structure preliminary design, railway system preliminary design (including track), obtaining approvals and determination of setting-out points; all for hand-over to the CPM for subsequent hand-over to nominated contractors. It is additionally proposed that the preliminary design contractor/consultant become part of the interdisciplinary/assurance team responsible to the CPM for assuring effective/robust detailed design prior to construction.
12.47 The need for fast efficient construction processes has been accelerated over the past decade or more as the world seeks to expand and upgrade its transport systems. To meet this demand for more faster and efficient rail construction, practices have evolved through the experience gained by contractors who worked more in the highways sector. Generally, rail projects can be split into two areas; (i) Civil and Structures including earthworks and, (ii) Rail systems including Track, Signalling, Telecommunication, Electrification and small plant.
12.48 The first comprises mostly the large contractors who work on highways building earthworks, bridge structures, small buildings, drainage etc. The second is a more specialised type of contractor with a specialist capability. In a project such as the dedicated freight corridor from Khurja to Ludhiana, it is proposed that a number of Civil Engineering contractors will build the earthworks, drainage and structures finishing at top of formation, or blanket level.
12.49 The systems contractor would then follow on and install the track, overhead traction power systems and finally install the signalling & telecommunications systems. This contractor would be responsible for the testing & commissioning of the system to ensure that it worked in a safe and efficient manner.
12.50 In terms of large bridge structures, there are a number of methods capable of being deployed for their construction; including incremental build, launching, lump-in. Along this corridor alignment there are a number of irrigation canals over which the route will need to pass. Although each structure will need to be assessed individually during the design phase the Consultant’s recommendation that the most appropriate method of construction here would be to launch the structures.
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12.51 Although the route passes over a number of major rivers, during the site inspections these were noticed to be almost dry. This is as a result of the main flow being diverted into the irrigation canals. However, it has to be borne in mind that if conditions dictate, large volumes of water could conceivably flow down these rivers. It is recommende3d that construction be planned around the area’s historical weather patterns such that superstructure works are completed during the dry season. Based on an almost dry river bed, these structures could be constructed of individual simply supported spans with each beam or deck being installed utilising cranes.
12.52 As part of the construction process temporary construction sites are required. In this project there are likely to be four large compounds required for the Civil Engineering contractors to set up offices for the management team and stores for general work items of plant.
12.53 At individual major and important bridge sites, large construction areas will be required on both banks of the river or canal. Similarly at rail-over-rail flyover sites. These construction areas are required to provide offices for the site management team, to provide washing, changing and messing for the construction workers, working areas, material storage, plant storage and most importantly vehicle and worker circulation areas to ensure safe working practices.
12.54 To facilitate the construction work access from the main highways and state highways will be required. Generally this is readily available except for the portion of the route from Jagadheri to Ambala. This length of route is served by small village roads which are only suitable for small vehicles and animal drawn carts.
12.55 In the Ambala to Jagadheri area special roads will require to be constructed temporarily to provide access to the work sites. This stretch is the area where two of the three important bridges are located over the Markhanda and Tagri rivers. These two structures alone will require large prefabricated pieces of bridge to be brought into site by road vehicles with erection by large cranes maybe capable of lifting up to1000 tonnes.
Contract strategy
12.56 In order to achieve commissioning of infrastructure by 2017, all preceding and overlapping contracts must be executed to programme. The Consultant’s recommended Contract and Procurement strategy, therefore, revolves around this aspect. This strategy recommends the principles of an organisation such that there would be one Contract Programme Management (CPM) team led by a Project Director (PD) accountable to a DFCCIL Steering Board. To ensure programme accountability, the Steering Group Board should have full delegated powers for approval and award of any contract package or variations for the project. The PD and team must, by necessity, have a close working relationship with the steering group board. It is additionally recommended that the CPM team be appointed prior to construction tender invitation. The CPM should additionally have delegated responsibilities for appointment of design (detailed) and build sub-contracts as appropriate.
12.57 For a project with this number of interfaces and approximately 400km in length, there are two management tools that are recommended to be adopted in parallel with each other that will greatly improve the chances of implementation success. The tools are:
(i) Programme Management, and
(ii) Project Assurance – Finance.
12.58 The Construction Programme Management organisation will require complete autonomy over its internal operations including approvals with legal agreements in place between it and the Borrower (if the Borrower is not a member of the DFCCIL). Indian Railways Research Design Standards Organisation (RDSO) has a key role to play in this arrangement and recommendations on its role and relationship in approvals process are given elsewhere in this
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report. The Consultant recommends for this project that satisfactory completion of construction will be by hand-over certification to the DFCCIL nominated maintenance organisation. Such hand-over would constitute the final milestone in the financial lever schedule.
12.59 Project Assurance through finance arrangements or, in this context, project disbursement/ drawdown is a key component of providing assurance that a project is in control. It has been recommended that the supervisory role to be expanded to be that of a Technical Adviser to the lending authority independent of the project’s construction management organisation. The Consultant recommends that such loan disbursement arrangements are drawn down against agreed contract milestone achievements on a quarterly basis throughout the contract period until ‘proof of hand-over to public service’ has been achieved.
12.60 The Consultant endorses the DFCCIL overall Ludhiana to Khurja seven year programme of work from start of procurement processes to final completion of this project. Initial contract preparation and procurement and agreements to gain access to land and final legal approvals are expected to require approximately 18 months. In parallel with this activity will be Preliminary Design for a period of approximately 18 months. A period of 42 months should be allowed for final design and construction of all earthworks, embankment works and structures, including medium and small bridges. Track laying, electrification, signalling and telecommunications works and final commissioning will require a total time of 12 months for the complete route. Six months should be allowed as contingency for possible delays during the construction period followed consecutively by a further 6 months for training and bringing the line fully into service.
12.61 The Consultant’s project management proposals recommends the project section Ludhiana to Khurja split into four manageable areas, Ludhiana A and Ludhiana B in tandem with Meerut A and Meerut B. Each of these sections, the consultant recommends, would be under the jurisdiction of a section project director responsible to the overall CPM Project Director.
Procurement
12.62 With indicative contract package prices for this project showing all of the major construction elements of this corridor out-turning in excess of $3 million, competitive tendering should be applied throughout. The client’s priority will clearly be to find the optimum balance between speed of construction and value for money. Drawing on recent experience of similar construction projects, the consultant recommends that the Consultant’s proposed contract strategy and packaging in compliance with this procurement strategy offers the best balance between contractor capability and construction economy.
12.63 For projects such as the Ludhiana to Khurja section where design, supply and/or construction will be required, prequalification is recommended to be sought from potential contractors with the use of two-stage bidding to further clarify requirements.
12.64 Performance based procurement, also known as output-based procurement, is a competitive procurement process. It follows International Competitive Bidding (ICB) or National Competitive Bidding (NCB) rules and results in a contractual relationship where payments are made for measured outputs instead of the traditional way where inputs are measured. It is this form of procurement that the Consultant recommends for this Ludhiana to Khurja project section. The technical specifications define the desired result and which outputs will be measured including how they will be measured.
Loan Implementation
12.65 Assurance of a project through the finance mechanisms, or in this context, project loan disbursement / drawdown is a key component of providing assurance that a project is in control. Terms of reference are given in this report for a financial supervisory consultancy role. This role,
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the consultant recommends, should be expanded to be that of a Technical Adviser to the lending authority independent of the project’s construction management organisation (although funded from within it). The first disbursement proposed in the suggested terms of reference that follow this section of report is, as an example, notionally assigned for ‘proof of land ownership’. The consultant recommends that disbursements against project milestones are continued on a quarterly basis throughout the contract period until ‘proof of hand-over to public service’ has been achieved. Such quarterly draw-downs should be against a set of pre-set conditions relating to the DFCCIL contract arrangements.
Economic Analysis
Economic Internal Rate of Return
12.66 Notwithstanding the current global recession, which in any case affected Asia far less than Europe and North America, the medium and long term macro economic prospects for India appear quite buoyant. The following table shows the EIU’s current short term predictions for the Indian economy.
Key indicators FY 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Real GDP growth (%) 6.1 5.5 6.4 8.0 8.0 8.2 Consumer price inflation (av. %) 8.3 5.2 4.3 5.3 5.2 5.2
Budget balance (% of GDP) -6.1 -7.8 -6.7 -6.1 -5.7 -4.8 Current-account balance (% of GDP) -3.1 -1.9 -2.4 -2.6 -2.7 -2.4
Exchange rate Rs: US$ (av.) 43.5 48.5 47.4 46.8 46.0 45.5 Source EIU, August 2009
Table 12.4 Key Projected Macro-economic Indicators
12.67 This feasibility study is undertaken to provide further detailed planning and implementation support particularly focusing on developing an investment grade study as a basis for ADB financing and for management improvement of the corridor. It focuses on the route between Ludhiana and Khurja, a distance of about 400km generally in parallel with the existing IR network alignment.
12.68 A separate freight corridor would allow IR to reduce freight operating costs; achieve higher speeds and permit more reliable transit times, all of which would provide a competitive edge over road transport for some traffics and some routes. It could also avoid the need for additional highway investment.
12.69 The project would also permit more trains on the existing network tracks including express and mail services and with some additional investment such as on track, fencing and rolling stock, would also allow operation at higher speeds.
12.70 The development of industry and commerce in general, and logistic centres and parks and inland container depots (ICDs) in particular would also be supported and add freight demand to that projected within the ongoing corridor development.
12.71 Economic evaluation compares the costs and benefits of ‘with’ the project and ‘without’ the project. The difference is estimated over the project period, providing the net benefits of doing the project and with discounting, allows estimation of the EIRR.
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12.72 The project ‘with’ scenario assumes the Ludhiana Khurja section of the Eastern DFC is built and operational by 2017. It is assumed that the other sections to Sonnagar are also completed before or by that date.
12.73 The ‘without’ scenario assumes that the existing corridor will be unable to carry the projected traffic and will be carried by road transport, requiring highway expansion and higher transport costs. It also assumes that the environmental impact and accident rates will be higher through increased road transport.
12.74 The Consultant has reworked and updated the previous RITES study economic appraisal in line with ADB Guidelines for the Economic Appraisal of Projects, and has been able to estimate that with a hurdle discount rate of 12% the project is economically viable with a calculated EIRR of 21.5%. In addition, the consultant has also identified a number of less tangible benefits that might arise from operation of the DFC, targeted at both the rail sector in particular, and the wider Indian economy more generally .
12.75 Sensitivity analysis was carried out against this base scenario and involved analysing the impact on the EIRR of changes in key variables such as project costs, traffic and operating costs. As is normal for economic analysis, switching values were used to establish how far major variables would have to increase (e.g. costs) or fall (e.g. traffic) for the EIRR to reach the cut-off rate of 12%. It was noted that capital costs would have to increase by 85%, operating costs by 55% or a lower modal traffic shift of 30% would have to take place in order to reduce the EIRR to the hurdle rate.
Design and Monitoring Framework
12.76 A draft Design and Monitoring Framework (DMF) document has been prepared for ongoing development. The DMF is the key element of PPMS, and is a results-based tool for analyzing, conceptualizing, designing, implementing, monitoring, and evaluating projects.
12.77 The DMF establishes the basis for performance monitoring and evaluation during and after implementation. It is not a static planning document. The DMF should be revised and updated regularly to reflect the necessary changes in project scope during implementation. Key stakeholders should be involved in all phases, from analysis and conceptualization through feasibility to final design and implementation.
12.78 The consultant recommends that this participatory process should therefore involve the borrower, executing agency (EA) and implementing agencies (IAs), other government organizations and nongovernment organizations (NGOs), the private sector, beneficiaries, and the ADB project team.
Financial Analysis
Financial Internal Rate of Return
12.79 The Project Capital Costs, Earnings and O & M Costs have been placed by the Consultant in the form of a cash-flow statement and FIRR has been arrived at by using the Discounted Cash-flow Technique. The Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) so arrived at for the project section is calculated to be 20.73%.
12.80 A sensitivity analysis was also carried out to ascertain the down side risk as well as measuring the impact of variation of certain crucial factors (viz. capital cost of the project, benefits of the project, etc.) influencing the project FIRR.
12.81 From the foregoing examinations of this appraisal, the following conclusions are drawn:
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• The construction of Khurja to Ludhiana section of DFC Project is financially viable in terms of the FIRR (i.e.20.73%), and the project retains its viability even in the situations, when the costs are inflated and corresponding benefits are depressed by 30% each (i.e.14.90%).
• Thus, it is implied that all other FIRR combinations of sensitivity analysis tests of the project proposal would lie between 20.73% and 14.90% range, which in turn proves that the down-side risk factor on the capital investment of the project is very low or almost nil.
• It may also be pointed out that the indicative TAC model developed during the study also provides healthy FIRR of 12.16%, when the NET earning sharing ratio between IR and the DFCCIL is 30:70, respectively. The DFCCIL would be comfortable in order to service the debt. However, ultimately the revenue sharing decision would be taken by the client and the DFCCIL as service provider.
12.82 As a result of this analysis the Consultant recommends that the project for construction of Khurja to Ludhiana section of the DFC project may be considered for implementation.
Financial Management
12.83 The DFCCIL has been delegated adequate financial and executive powers for smooth operation of the Company. It is currently putting in place plans for efficient and best practices of project planning, appraisal, transparent bidding processes, effective contract management and various guidelines for procurement under ADB, WB and JBIC loans in addition to the existing project and financial management systems developed in house by the DFCCIL and the best corporate practices in vogue in other railway construction PSUs. It has been provided with an authorized share capital base to enable the organization to leverage its equity for project financing through long term debt.
12.84 Ministry of Railways has also been allotting funds to the DFCCIL from its own surplus through the Capital Fund which will reduce the requirement of debt. The equity of the DFCCIL comes from the Ministry of Railways (in turn from MOF through GBS) which includes a loan from WB and ADB. The DFCCIL has entered into a MOU with Ministry of Railways to facilitate the financing, execution of DFC and for establishing a revenue stream. The DFCCIL has been delegated a degree of independent financial and executive powers for smooth operation of the Company. It has also put in place the best practices of project appraisal, award of contracts, contract management and other related issues of a multilateral agency in addition to its own projects and financial management systems developed in house.
12.85 The monthly requirements of cash are projected by Project Implementation Units which are consolidated in the Corporate Office. The timing of mobilization of funds from these sources is done through a planned calendar and mid course corrections are made based on requirement of cash flows. Funds are released as per requirement by the MOR. Any surplus funds, if available, are invested in short term deposit with Public and Private Sector Banks. No long term commitments are entered into to ensure availability of funds. An Investment Committee takes decision of the surplus funds within the framework of guidelines laid down by Government of India.
12.86 The DFCCIL has an authorized capital base of Rs. 4000 Crore, the paid up capital as at present is Rs.358 Crore, solely provided by the Central Govt. through the Ministry Of Railways. It is envisaged that a major part of the funding requirements will be met from loans to be provided by multilateral and bilateral institutions, viz., WB, ADB and JBIC. Any funding gap would eventually be bridged through debt sourced from the capital market and banks/Fis.
12.87 As the main activity of the DFCCIL for the next five years or more would be mainly execution of projects, the Company has to put into place an effective internal control systems for monitoring
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the implementation of projects including periodic review of physical and financial progress, evaluation of efficiency of cost control measures based on inputs of both the Technical and Finance Departments. The Finance and Accounts Department should also conduct reviews of the progress and nature of expenditure.
12.88 Once the train services start operating on the DFCCIL corridors, suitable accounting and financial systems should be put in place in respect of operation, maintenance and renewal of assets, besides computation of revenues, either in the form of apportioned earnings or access charges, as the case may be, a system of internal audit by external firms of Chartered Accountants would ensure the effectiveness and reliability and adequacy of control systems, through Theme Audit of various projects, besides transaction audit.
12.89 Since the DFCCIL is a central Public Sector Enterprise, the accounting standards issued by ICAI are mandatory in compilation of accounts and preparation of financial statements. In addition there will be checks and controls through the system of Statutory Audit, Supplementary Audit by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India, Institution of Audit Committee of the Board of Directors, etc.
12.90 As a result of investigation and review of the DFCCIL procedures, it is the Consultant’s opinion that with the mechanisms outlined above put in place, transparency and good corporate governance will form an integral part of the DFCCIL management and its operations.
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Acknowledgements:
This report has been made possible by the individual endeavours of a large number of people. Specific acknowledgement and personal thanks must go to all the national and international experts and individual specialists who have contributed to this report in equal measure. Mention must also be made of those members of the Scott Wilson India team whose backroom support has helped bring conclusion to this report and its appendices. Finally, the whole of this ADB appointed consultant is indebted to the willingness and information-share made available by the Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporation of India Ltd personnel and their Ministry of Railways colleagues with particular responsibilities for development of this eastern freight corridor.
Ron Seward (Team Leader – Ludhiana to Khurja Dedicated Freight Corridor)
The following personnel, although not an exhaustive list, are hereby acknowledged:
National and International Experts: –
A.K. Chopra; R.L. Malik; S.Kumar; J.K.D. Garg; S Balachandran; A.K. Atray; Shanti Banerjea; Robert Brown; Greg Goodman; Steve Brierley and Willie G. Burrell.
Scott Wilson India Pvt Ltd Support Team: –
Shakun Rana; Vadan Singh; Kumud Priyadarshi; Jyoti Verma; Reepak Gupta; Santosh Dixit; Shrish Ojha; Col. Bisht and Babu.V.
National Specialist Teams: –
Bindiya Rawat; Janet Joy; S.K. Jain; Sumit Singh and Rupa Banerjee.
Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporation of India Ltd Team: –
Rakesh Goyal; Surender Kaul; S.K. Raina; Rahul Agarwal; V.K. Yadav; Arun Arora; Dr. A.K. Manocha; Niraj Kumar; Rajesh Chopra, Ajay Kumar, Amarnath Arora, R.K. Rastogi, P.K. Goyal, Ravi Prakash, Om Prakashby, B. B. Saran and P. N. Shukla.
Indian Railways – Northern Section: –
Mr Indra Ghosh
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