Polar Record 53 (5): 459–478 (2017). © Cambridge University Press 2017. This is an Open Access article, 459 distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http:// creativecommons.org/ licenses/ by/ 4.0/ ), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. doi:10.1017/S0032247417000390 Is it all going south? Four future scenarios for Antarctica Daniela Liggett Gateway Antarctica, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, 8140 Christchurch, New Zealand Bob Frame Landcare Research, PO Box 69040, Lincoln 7640, New Zealand (
[email protected]) Neil Gilbert Constantia Consulting, 310 Papanui Road, Christchurch 8052, New Zealand Fraser Morgan Landcare Research, Private Bag 92170, Auckland Mail Centre, Auckland 1142, New Zealand Received December 2016; first published online 11 September 2017 ABSTRACT. The future is uncertain for Antarctica, with many possibilities – some more plausible, others more preferable. Indeed, the region and its governance regime may be reaching (or may have reached) a crossroads moment as a result of a series of challenges, including the changing Antarctic climate and environment, increasing human activity, shifting values among Antarctic states and a low-cost, somewhat benign governance regime (the Antarctic Treaty System). Within this context there are a number of interdependent drivers that are likely to influence Antarctica’s future over, say, 25 years: global environmental and socio-economic developments; Antarctic governance; Antarctic research, including national Antarctic programme operations; and Antarctic tourism. The research presented here involved a thorough examination of Antarctic literature on current Antarctic developments and challenges, and an assessment of global trends.